• Title/Summary/Keyword: Disaster prediction

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Simulation and Analysis of Response Plans against Chemical and Biological Hazards (화학 생물 위험 대응 시뮬레이션 및 분석)

  • Han, Sangwoo;Seo, Jiyun;Shim, Woosup
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.49-64
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    • 2021
  • M&S techniques are widely used as scientific means to systematically develop response plans to chemical and biological (CB) hazards. However, while the theoretical area of hazard dispersion modeling has achieved remarkable practical results, the operational analysis area to simulate CB hazard response plans is still in an early stage. This paper presents a model to simulate CB hazard response plans such as detection, protection, and decontamination. First, we present a possible way to display high-fidelity hazard dispersion in a combat simulation model, taking into account weather and terrain conditions. We then develop an improved vulnerability model of the combat simulation model, in order to simulate CB damage of combat simulation entities based on other casualty prediction techniques. In addition, we implement tactical behavior task models that simulate CB hazard response plans such as detection, reconnaissance, protection, and decontamination. Finally, we explore its feasibility by analyzing contamination detection effects by distributed CB detectors and decontamination effects according to the size of the {contaminated, decontamination} unit. We expect that the proposed model will be partially utilized in disaster prevention and simulation training area as well as analysis of combat effectiveness analysis of CB protection system and its operational concepts in the military area.

Analysis of Time Series Changes in the Surrounding Environment of Rural Local Resources Using Aerial Photography and UAV - Focousing on Gyeolseong-myeon, Hongseong-gun - (항공사진과 UAV를 이용한 농촌지역자원 주변환경의 시계열 변화 분석 - 충청남도 홍성군 결성면을 중심으로 -)

  • An, Phil-Gyun;Eom, Seong-Jun;Kim, Yong-Gyun;Cho, Han-Sol;Kim, Sang-Bum
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.55-70
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    • 2021
  • In this study, in the field of remote sensing, where the scope of application is rapidly expanding to fields such as land monitoring, disaster prediction, facility safety inspection, and maintenance of cultural properties, monitoring of rural space and surrounding environment using UAV is utilized. It was carried out to verify the possibility, and the following main results were derived. First, the aerial image taken with an unmanned aerial vehicle had a much higher image size and spatial resolution than the aerial image provided by the National Geographic Information Service. It was suitable for analysis due to its high accuracy. Second, the more the number of photographed photos and the more complex the terrain features, the more the point cloud included in the aerial image taken with the UAV was extracted. As the amount of point cloud increases, accurate 3D mapping is possible, For accurate 3D mapping, it is judged that a point cloud acquisition method for difficult-to-photograph parts in the air is required. Third, 3D mapping technology using point cloud is effective for monitoring rural space and rural resources because it enables observation and comparison of parts that cannot be read from general aerial images. Fourth, the digital elevation model(DEM) produced with aerial image taken with an UAV can visually express the altitude and shape of the topography of the study site, so it can be used as data to predict the effects of topographical changes due to changes in rural space. Therefore, it is possible to utilize various results using the data included in the aerial image taken by the UAV. In this study, the superiority of images acquired by UAV was verified by comparison with existing images, and the effect of 3D mapping on rural space monitoring was visually analyzed. If various types of spatial data such as GIS analysis and topographic map production are collected and utilized using data that can be acquired by unmanned aerial vehicles, it is expected to be used as basic data for rural planning to maintain and preserve the rural environment.

Estimation and Evaluation of Reanalysis Air Temperature based on Mountain Meteorological Observation (산악기상정보 융합 기반 재분석 기온 데이터의 추정 및 검증)

  • Sunghyun, Min;Sukhee, Yoon;Myongsoo, Won;Junghwa, Chun;Keunchang, Jang
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.244-255
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    • 2022
  • This study estimated and evaluated the high resolution (1km) gridded mountain meteorology data of daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature based on ASOS (Automated Surface Observing System), AWS (Automatic Weather Stations) and AMOS (Automatic Mountain Meteorology Observation System) in South Korea. The ASOS, AWS, and AMOS meteorology data which were located above 200m was classified as mountainous area. And the ASOS, AWS, and AMOS meteorology data which were located under 200m was classified as non-mountainous area. The bias-correction method was used for correct air temperature over complex mountainous area and the performance of enhanced daily coefficients based on the AMOS and mountainous area observing meteorology data was evaluated using the observed daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature. As a result, the evaluation results show that RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) of air temperature using the enhanced coefficients based on the mountainous area observed meteorology data is smaller as 30% (mean), 50% (minimum), and 37% (maximum) than that of using non-mountainous area observed meteorology data. It indicates that the enhanced weather coefficients based on the AMOS and mountain ASOS can estimate mean, maximum, and minimum temperature data reasonably and the temperature results can provide useful input data on several climatological and forest disaster prediction studies.

A basic study for explosion pressure prediction of hydrogen fuel vehicle hydrogen tanks in underground parking lot (지하주차장 수소연료차 수소탱크 폭발 압력 예측을 위한 기초 연구)

  • Lee, Ho-Hyung;Kim, Hyo-Gyu;Yoo, Ji-Oh;Lee, Hu-Yeong;Kwon, Oh-Seung
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.605-612
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    • 2021
  • Amid growing global damage due to abnormal weather caused by global warming, the introduction of eco-friendly cars is accelerating to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from internal combustion engines. Accordingly, many studies are being conducted in each country to prepare for the explosion of hydrogen fuel in semi-closed spaces such as tunnels and underground parking lots to ensure the safety of hydrogen-electric vehicles. As a result of predicting the explosion pressure of the hydrogen tank using the equivalent TNT model, it was found to be about 1.12 times and 2.30 times higher at a height of 1.5 meters, respectively, based on the case of 52 liters of hydrogen capacity. A review of the impact on the human body and buildings by converting the predicted maximum explosive pressure into the amount of impact predicted that all predicted values would result in lung damage or severe partial destruction. The predicted degree of damage was applied only by converting the amount of impact caused by the explosion, and considering the additional damage caused by the explosion, it is believed that the actual damage will increase further and safety and disaster prevention measures should be taken.

Application of Artificial Intelligence Technology for Dam-Reservoir Operation in Long-Term Solution to Flood and Drought in Upper Mun River Basin

  • Areeya Rittima;JidapaKraisangka;WudhichartSawangphol;YutthanaPhankamolsil;Allan Sriratana Tabucanon;YutthanaTalaluxmana;VarawootVudhivanich
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.30-30
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    • 2023
  • This study aims to establish the multi-reservoir operation system model in the Upper Mun River Basin which includes 5 main dams namely, Mun Bon (MB), Lamchae (LC), Lam Takhong (LTK), Lam Phraphoeng (LPP), and Lower Lam Chiengkrai (LLCK) Dams. The knowledge and AI technology were applied aiming to develop innovative prototype for SMART dam-reservoir operation in future. Two different sorts of reservoir operation system model namely, Fuzzy Logic (FL) and Constraint Programming (CP) as well as the development of rainfall and reservoir inflow prediction models using Machine Learning (ML) technique were made to help specify the right amount of daily reservoir releases for the Royal Irrigation Department (RID). The model could also provide the essential information particularly for the Office of National Water Resource of Thailand (ONWR) to determine the short-term and long-term water resource management plan and strengthen water security against flood and drought in this region. The simulated results of base case scenario for reservoir operation in the Upper Mun from 2008 to 2021 indicated that in the same circumstances, FL and CP models could specify the new release schemes to increase the reservoir water storages at the beginning of dry season of approximately 125.25 and 142.20 MCM per year. This means that supplying the agricultural water to farmers in dry season could be well managed. In other words, water scarcity problem could substantially be moderated at some extent in case of incapability to control the expansion of cultivated area size properly. Moreover, using AI technology to determine the new reservoir release schemes plays important role in reducing the actual volume of water shortfall in the basin although the drought situation at LTK and LLCK Dams were still existed in some periods of time. Meanwhile, considering the predicted inflow and hydrologic factors downstream of 5 main dams by FL model and minimizing the flood volume by CP model could ensure that flood risk was considerably minimized as a result of new release schemes.

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Prediction of Pull-Out Force of Steel Pegs Using the Relationship Between Degree of Compaction and Hardness of Soil Conditioned on Water Content (함수비에 따른 토양의 다짐도와 경도의 관계를 이용한 철항의 인발저항력 예측 연구)

  • Choi, In-Hyeok;Heo, Gi-Seok;Lee, Jin-Young;Kwak, Dong-Youp
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.39 no.12
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    • pp.23-35
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    • 2023
  • The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs has announced design standards for disaster-resilient greenhouses capable of resisting wind speeds with a 30-year frequency to respond to the destruction of greenhouses caused by strong winds. However, many greenhouses are still being maintained or newly installed as conventional standard facilities for the supply type. In these supply-type greenhouses, a small pile called a steel peg is used as reinforcement to resist wind-induced damage. The wind resistance of steel pegs varies depending on the soil environment and installation method. In this study, a correlation analysis was performed between the wind resistance of steel pegs installed in loam and sandy loam, using a soil hardness meter. To estimate the pull-out force of steel pegs based on soil water content and compaction, soil compaction tests and laboratory soil box and field tests were performed. The soil compaction degree was measured using a soil hardness meter that could easily confirm soil compaction. This was used to analyze the correlation between the soil compaction degree in the tests. In addition, a correlation analysis was performed between the pull-out force of steel pegs in the soil box and field. The findings of this study will be useful in predicting the pull-out force of steel pegs based on the method of steel peg installation and environmental changes.

Prediction of Damages and Evacuation Strategies for Gas Leaks from Chlorine Transport Vehicles (염소 운송차량 가스누출시 피해예측 및 대피방안)

  • Yang, Yong-Ho;Kong, Ha-Sung
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.407-417
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    • 2024
  • The objective of this study is to predict and reduce potential damage caused by chlorine gas leaks, a hazardous material, when vehicles transporting it overturn due to accidents or other incidents. The goal is to forecast the anticipated damages caused by chlorine toxicity levels (ppm) and to design effective response strategies for mitigating them. To predict potential damages, we conducted quantitative assessments using the ALOHA program to calculate the toxic effects (ppm) and damage distances resulting from chlorine leaks, taking into account potential negligence of drivers during transportation. The extent of damage from toxic gas leaks is influenced by various factors, including the amount of the leaked hazardous material and the meteorological conditions at the time of the leak. Therefore, a comprehensive analysis of damage distances was conducted by examining various scenarios that involved variations in the amount of leakage and weather conditions. Under intermediate conditions (leakage quantity: 5 tons, wind speed: 3 m/s, atmospheric stability: D), the estimated distance for exceeding the AEGL-2 level of 2 ppm was calculated to be 9 km. This concentration poses a high risk of respiratory disturbance and potential human casualties, comparable to the toxicity of hydrogen chloride. In particular, leaks in urban areas can lead to significant loss of life. In the event of a leakage incident, we proposed a plan to minimize damage by implementing appropriate response strategies based on the location and amount of the leak when an accident occurs.

Combined analysis of meteorological and hydrological drought for hydrological drought prediction and early response - Focussing on the 2022-23 drought in the Jeollanam-do - (수문학적 가뭄 예측과 조기대응을 위한 기상-수문학적 가뭄의 연계분석 - 2022~23 전남지역 가뭄을 대상으로)

  • Jeong, Minsu;Hong, Seok-Jae;Kim, Young-Jun;Yoon, Hyeon-Cheol;Lee, Joo-Heon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.3
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    • pp.195-207
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    • 2024
  • This study selected major drought events that occurred in the Jeonnam region from 1991 to 2023, examining both meteorological and hydrological drought occurrence mechanisms. The daily drought index was calculated using rainfall and dam storage as input data, and the drought propagation characteristics from meteorological drought to hydrological drought were analyzed. The characteristics of the 2022-23 drought, which recently occurred in the Jeonnam region and caused serious damage, were evaluated. Compared to historical droughts, the duration of the hydrological drought for 2022-2023 lasted 334 days, the second longest after 2017-2018, the drought severity was evaluated as the most severe at -1.76. As a result of a linked analysis of SPI (StandQardized Precipitation Index), and SRSI (Standardized Reservoir Storage Index), it is possible to suggest a proactive utilization for SPI(6) to respond to hydrological drought. Furthermore, by confirming the similarity between SRSI and SPI(12) in long-term drought monitoring, the applicability of SPI(12) to hydrological drought monitoring in ungauged basins was also confirmed. Through this study, it was confirmed that the long-term dryness that occurs during the summer rainy season can transition into a serious level of hydrological drought. Therefore, for preemptive drought response, it is necessary to use real-time monitoring results of various drought indices and understand the propagation phenomenon from meteorological-agricultural-hydrological drought to secure a sufficient drought response period.

Discussion on Detection of Sediment Moisture Content at Different Altitudes Employing UAV Hyperspectral Images (무인항공 초분광 영상을 기반으로 한 고도에 따른 퇴적물 함수율 탐지 고찰)

  • Kyoungeun Lee;Jaehyung Yu;Chanhyeok Park;Trung Hieu Pham
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.57 no.4
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    • pp.353-362
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    • 2024
  • This study examined the spectral characteristics of sediments according to moisture content using an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-based hyperspectral sensor and evaluated the efficiency of moisture content detection at different flight altitudes. For this purpose, hyperspectral images in the 400-1000nm wavelength range were acquired and analyzed at altitudes of 40m and 80m for sediment samples with various moisture contents. The reflectance of the sediments generally showed a decreasing trend as the moisture content increased. Correlation analysis between moisture content and reflectance showed a strong negative correlation (r < -0.8) across the entire 400-900nm range. The moisture content detection model constructed using the Random Forest technique showed detection accuracies of RMSE 2.6%, R2 0.92 at 40m altitude and RMSE 2.2%, R2 0.95 at 80m altitude, confirming that the difference in accuracy between altitudes was minimal. Variable importance analysis revealed that the 600-700nm band played a crucial role in moisture content detection. This study is expected to be utilized in efficient sediment moisture management and natural disaster prediction in the field of environmental monitoring in the future.

Multi-task Learning Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity Monitoring and Forecasting through Fusion of Geostationary Satellite Data and Numerical Forecasting Model Output (정지궤도 기상위성 및 수치예보모델 융합을 통한 Multi-task Learning 기반 태풍 강도 실시간 추정 및 예측)

  • Lee, Juhyun;Yoo, Cheolhee;Im, Jungho;Shin, Yeji;Cho, Dongjin
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.36 no.5_3
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    • pp.1037-1051
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    • 2020
  • The accurate monitoring and forecasting of the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) are able to effectively reduce the overall costs of disaster management. In this study, we proposed a multi-task learning (MTL) based deep learning model for real-time TC intensity estimation and forecasting with the lead time of 6-12 hours following the event, based on the fusion of geostationary satellite images and numerical forecast model output. A total of 142 TCs which developed in the Northwest Pacific from 2011 to 2016 were used in this study. The Communications system, the Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) Meteorological Imager (MI) data were used to extract the images of typhoons, and the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) provided by the National Center of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) was employed to extract air and ocean forecasting data. This study suggested two schemes with different input variables to the MTL models. Scheme 1 used only satellite-based input data while scheme 2 used both satellite images and numerical forecast modeling. As a result of real-time TC intensity estimation, Both schemes exhibited similar performance. For TC intensity forecasting with the lead time of 6 and 12 hours, scheme 2 improved the performance by 13% and 16%, respectively, in terms of the root mean squared error (RMSE) when compared to scheme 1. Relative root mean squared errors(rRMSE) for most intensity levels were lessthan 30%. The lower mean absolute error (MAE) and RMSE were found for the lower intensity levels of TCs. In the test results of the typhoon HALONG in 2014, scheme 1 tended to overestimate the intensity by about 20 kts at the early development stage. Scheme 2 slightly reduced the error, resulting in an overestimation by about 5 kts. The MTL models reduced the computational cost about 300% when compared to the single-tasking model, which suggested the feasibility of the rapid production of TC intensity forecasts.