• Title/Summary/Keyword: Disaster prediction

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Correlation between Mix Proportion and Mechanical Characteristics of Steel Fiber Reinforced Concrete (강섬유 보강 콘크리트의 배합비와 역학적 특성 사이의 관계 추정)

  • Choi, Hyun-Ki;Bae, Baek-Il;Koo, Hae-Shik
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.331-341
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    • 2015
  • The main purpose of this study is reducing the cost and effort for characterization of tensile strength of fiber reinforced concrete, in order to use in structural design. For this purpose, in this study, test for fiber reinforced concrete was carried out. Because fiber reinforced concrete is consisted of diverse material, it is hard to define the correlation between mix proportions and strength. Therefore, compressive strength test and tensile strength test were carried out for the range of smaller than 100 MPa of compressive strength and 0.25~1% of steel fiber volume fraction. as a results of test, two types of tensile strength were highly affected by compressive strength of concrete. However, increase rate of tensile strength was decreased with increase of compressive strength. Increase rate of tensile strength was decreased with increase of fiber volume fraction. Database was constructed using previous research data. Because estimation equations for tensile strength of fiber reinforced concrete should be multiple variable function, linear regression is hard to apply. Therefore, in this study, we decided to use the ANN(Artificial Neural Network). ANN was constructed using multiple layer perceptron architecture. Sigmoid function was used as transfer function and back propagation training method was used. As a results of prediction using artificial neural network, predicted values of test data and previous research which was randomly selected were well agreed with each other. And the main effective parameters are water-cement ratio and fiber volume fraction.

Analysis of Building Vulnerabilities to Typhoon Disaster Based on Damage Loss Data (태풍 재해에 대한 건물 취약성의 피해손실 데이터 기반 분석)

  • Ahn, Sung-Jin;Kim, Tae-Hui;Son, Ki-Young;Kim, Ji-Myong
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.529-538
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    • 2019
  • Typhoons can cause significant financial damage worldwide. For this reason, states, local governments and insurance companies attempt to quantify and mitigate the financial risks related to these natural disasters by developing a typhoon risk assessment model. As such, the importance of typhoon risk assessment models is increasing, and it is also important to reflect local vulnerabilities to enable sophisticated assessments. Although a practical study of economic losses associated with natural disasters has identified essential risk indicators, comprehensive studies covering the correlation between vulnerability and economic loss are still needed. The purpose of this study is to identify typhoon damage indicators and to develop evaluation indicators for typhoon damage prediction functions, utilizing the loses from Typhoon Maemi as data. This study analyzes actual loss records of Typhoon Maemi provided by local insurance companies to prepare for a scenario of maximum losses. To create a vulnerability function, the authors used the wind speed and distance from the coast and the total value of property, construction type, floors, and underground floor indicators. The results and metrics of this study provide practical guidelines for government agencies and insurance companies in developing vulnerability functions that reflect the actual financial losses and regional vulnerabilities of buildings.

A Study on the Predictability of Eastern Winter Storm Waves Using Operational Wind Forecasts of KMA (기상청 현업 예보 바람자료를 이용한 동해안 동계 파랑 예측 재현도 연구)

  • Do, Kideok;Kim, Jinah
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.223-233
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    • 2018
  • The predictability of winter storm waves using KMA's operational wind forecasts has been studied to predict wind waves and swells in the East coast of Korea using SWAN. The nested model were employed along the East coast of Korea to simulate the wave transformation in the coastal area and wave dissipation term of whitecapping is optimized to improve swell prediction accuracy. In this study, KMA's operational meteorological models (RDAPS and LDAPS) are used as input wind fields. In order to evaluate model accuracy, we also simulate wind waves and swells using ECMWF reanalysis and KIOST WRF wind and they are compared with the KMA's operational wave model and the wave measurement data on the offshore and onshore stations. As a result, it has the lowest RMSE and the highest correlation coefficient in the onshore when the input wind fields are KMA's operational meteorological forecasts. In the offshore, all of the simulate results shows good agreements with similar error statistics. It means that it is very feasible to use SWAN model with the modified whitecapping factor and KMA's operational meteorological forecasts for predicting the wind waves and swells in the East coast of Korea.

Utilization of induced polarization for predicting ground condition ahead of tunnel face in subsea tunnelling: laboratory test (유도분극을 활용한 해저터널 굴착면 전방 지반상태 예측: 실내실험)

  • Park, Jinho;Lee, Kang-Hyun;Lee, Seong-Won;Ryu, Young-Moo;Lee, In-Mo
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.383-392
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    • 2015
  • In subsea tunnelling, prediction of the fractured zone (or water bearing zone) ahead of tunnel face saturated by seawater with high water pressure has been a key factor for safe construction. This study verified the feasibility of utilizing induced polarization (IP) survey at tunnel face for predicting the ground condition ahead of the subsea tunnel face. A pore model was proposed to compute chargeability in granular material, and the relationship correlating chargeability with the variables affecting the chargeability was derived from the model. Parametric study has been performed on the variables to figure out the most influential factors affecting the chargeability. The results of the parametric study show that the size of narrow pores ($r_1$) and the salinity of pore water are the most influential factors on chargeability. Laboratory tests were conducted on various types of ground condition by changing the salinity of pore water, the thickness of the fracture zone and the existence of gouge (weathered granite) within the joints of the fractured zone to figure out the effect of the ground characteristics on the IP phenomenon. Test results show that the chargeability of the fractured zone saturated by seawater increases if the joints in the fractured zone are filled with gouge since the infilled gouge will decrease the size of narrow pores ($r_1$).

Study on the prediction of the stopping probabilities in case of train fire in tunnel by Monte Carlo simulation method (몬테카를로 시뮬레이션에 의한 화재열차의 터널 내 정차확률 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Ryu, Ji-Oh;Kim, Jong-Yoon;Kim, Hyo-Gyu
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.11-22
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    • 2018
  • The safety of tunnels is quantified by quantitative risk assessment when planning the disaster prevention facilities of railway tunnels, and it is decided whether they are appropriate. The purpose of this study is to estimate the probability of the train stopping in the tunnels at train fire, which has a significant effect on the results of quantitative risk assessment for tunnel fires. For this purpose, a model was developed to calculate the coasting distance of the train considering the coefficient of train running resistance. The probability of stopping in case of train fire in the tunnel is predicted by the Monte Carlo simulation method with the coasting distance and the emergency braking distance as parameters of the tunnel lengths and slopes, train initial driving speeds. The kinetic equations for predicting the coasting distance were analyzed by reflecting the coefficient train running resistance of KTX II. In the case of KTX II trains, the coasting distance is reduced as the slope increases in a tunnel with an upward slope, but it is possible to continue driving without stopping in a slope downward. The probability of the train stopping in the case of train fire in tunnel decreases as the train speed increases and the slope of the tunnel decreases. If human error is not taken into account, the probability that a high-speed train traveling at a speed of 250 km/h or above will stop in a tunnel due to a fire is 0% when the slope of the tunnel is 0.5% or less, and the probability of stopping increases rapidly as the tunnel slope increases and the tunnel length increases.

Auto-compatibility Analysis for Ka-band payload of COMS

  • Park, Jae-Woo;Lee, Seong-Pal;Baek, Myung-Jin
    • Journal of Satellite, Information and Communications
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.41-47
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    • 2007
  • The first geostationary satellite made by Korea, COMS, has the three different payload ; Meteorological sensor, Oceanographic sensor and Ka-band communication payload. There are Meteorological & Ocean Data Communication Subsystem(MODCS) and Telemetry, Command and Ranging Subsystem(TC&R) as other RF radiation sources. MODCS transmits and receives Meteo and Ocean measurement data from/to earth using L-band and TC&R using S-band. The Ka-band communication payload will provide high-speed multimedia services and communication services for natural disaster such as prediction, prevention, and recovery services in the government communications network.Ka-band beacon is for the earth antenna pointing and the experiment of rain fading. This paper gives the analysis results about the mutual radiation effect on Ka-band communication payload, Ka-band beacon, MODCS and TC&R. Up/Down link power and coupling factor including the geometrical position and distance of antenna, filter rejection and degradation factor due to the different polarization are considered. The results show MODCS and TC&R are compatible for Ka-band communication payload and Ka-band beacon does not interfere with MODCS and TC&R normal operation.

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Real-Time Forecast of Rainfall Impact on Urban Inundation (강우자료와 연계한 도시 침수지역의 사전 영향예보)

  • KEUM, Ho-Jun;KIM, Hyun-Il;HAN, Kun-Yeun
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.76-92
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    • 2018
  • This study aimed to establish database of rainfall inundation area by rainfall scenarios and conduct a real time prediction for urban flood mitigation. the data leaded model was developed for the mapping of inundated area with rainfall forecast data provided by korea meteorological agency. for the construction of data leaded model, 1d-2d modeling was applied to Gangnam area, where suffered from severe flooding event including september, 2010. 1d-2d analysis result agree with observed in term of flood depth. flood area and flood occurring report which maintained by NDMS(national disaster management system). The fitness ratio of the NDMS reporting point and 2D flood analysis results was revealed to be 69.5%. Flood forecast chart was created using pre-flooding database. It was analyzed to have 70.3% of fitness in case of flood forecast chart of 70mm, and 72.0% in case of 80mm flood forecast chart. Using the constructed pre-flood area database, it is possible to present flood forecast chart information with rainfall forecast, and it can be used to secure the leading time during flood predictions and warning.

Evaluating Geomorphological Classification Systems to Predict the Occurrence of landslides in Mountainous Region (산사태 발생예측을 위한 지형분류기법의 비교평가)

  • Lee, Sooyoun;Jeong, Gwanyong;Park, Soo Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.50 no.5
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    • pp.485-503
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    • 2015
  • This study aims at evaluating geomorphological classification systems to predict the occurrence of landslides in mountainous region in Korea. Geomorphological classification systems used in this study are Catena, TPI, and Geomorphons. Study sites are Gapyeong-gun, Hoengseong-gun, Gimcheon-si, Yeoju-si/Yicheon-si in which landslide occurrence data were collected by local governments from 2001-2014. Catena method has objective classification standard to compare among regions objectively and understand the result intuitively. However, its procedure is complicated and hard to be automated for the general public to use it. Both TPI and Geomorphons have simple procedure and GIS-extension, therefore it has high accessibility. However, the results of both systems are highly dependent on the scale, and have low relevance to geomorphological formation process because focusing on shape of terrain. Three systems have low compatibility, therefore unified concept are required for broad use of landform classification. To assess the effectiveness of prediction on landslide by each geomorphological classification system, 50% of geomorphological classes with higher landslide occurrence are selected and the total landslide occurrence in selected classes are calculated and defined as 'predictive ability'. The ratio of terrain categorized by 'predictive ability' to whole region is defined as 'vulnerable area ratio'. An indicator to compare three systems which is predictive ability divided by vulnerable area ratio was developed to make a comprehensive judgment. As a result, Catena ranked the highest in suitability.

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The Estimated Model of Wave Overtopping Volume according to Wave Characteristic (파랑특성(波浪特性)에 따른 월파량산정(越波量算定)에 관한 연구(硏究))

  • Park, Sang Kil
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.113-128
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    • 1990
  • In recent years, various types of coastal protection scheme have been studied around the coastal region. Among them, so-called zonal protection systems are being watched with interest from various points of view. In this paper, wave overtopping rate from overflowing the vertical seawall is investigated by conducting two dimensional model on the horizontal bed experiment. Hereafter this system is referred to as a artificial reef system. One is the foundation to control wave height near the surfzone and the other is function to prevent coastal disaster by suppressing net overtopping rate. The main results obtained in this study are summarized as follows. 1) Wave attenuation taken place on the artificial reef can be predicted numerically by using energy dispersion model due to wave breaking proposed by Battjes. 2) To evaluate the wave overtopping rate from a vertical seadike on various coastal constructions by weir model, a numerical procedure for prediction of overtopping is confirmed.

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Technological Development Trends for Underground Safety in Urban Construction (도심지 공사시 지하안전 확보를 위한 기술개발 동향)

  • Baek, Yong;Kim, Woo Seok
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.343-350
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    • 2017
  • Amid increasingly saturated ground space, development of underground space has been booming throughout the world and excavation has been underway near the structure above or under the ground level. But the ground subsidence caused by improper or poor construction technologies, underground water leakage, sudden changes of stratum and the problem with earth retaining system component has been emerged as hot social issue. To deal with such problems nationwide, establishment of preventive and proactive disaster management and rapid restoration system has been pushed now. In this study, collection of the data on technology development trend to secure the underground safety was made, taking into account of internal change elements (changing groundwater level, damage to underground utilities, etc) and external change elements (vehicle load, earthquake and ground excavation, etc) during excavation. Amid the growing need of ground behavior analysis, ground subsidence evaluation technology, safe excavation to prevent ground subsidence and reinforcement technology, improvement of rapid restoration technology in preparation for ground subsidence and development of independent capability, this study is intended to introduce the technology development in a bid to prevent the ground subsidence during excavation. It's categorized into prediction/evaluation technology, complex detect technology, waterproof reinforcement technology, rapid restoration technology and excavation technology which, in part, has been in process now.