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Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using Deep Neural Network and Convolutional Neural Network (Deep Neural Network와 Convolutional Neural Network 모델을 이용한 산사태 취약성 매핑)

  • Gong, Sung-Hyun;Baek, Won-Kyung;Jung, Hyung-Sup
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.6_2
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    • pp.1723-1735
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    • 2022
  • Landslides are one of the most prevalent natural disasters, threating both humans and property. Also landslides can cause damage at the national level, so effective prediction and prevention are essential. Research to produce a landslide susceptibility map with high accuracy is steadily being conducted, and various models have been applied to landslide susceptibility analysis. Pixel-based machine learning models such as frequency ratio models, logistic regression models, ensembles models, and Artificial Neural Networks have been mainly applied. Recent studies have shown that the kernel-based convolutional neural network (CNN) technique is effective and that the spatial characteristics of input data have a significant effect on the accuracy of landslide susceptibility mapping. For this reason, the purpose of this study is to analyze landslide vulnerability using a pixel-based deep neural network model and a patch-based convolutional neural network model. The research area was set up in Gangwon-do, including Inje, Gangneung, and Pyeongchang, where landslides occurred frequently and damaged. Landslide-related factors include slope, curvature, stream power index (SPI), topographic wetness index (TWI), topographic position index (TPI), timber diameter, timber age, lithology, land use, soil depth, soil parent material, lineament density, fault density, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and normalized difference water index (NDWI) were used. Landslide-related factors were built into a spatial database through data preprocessing, and landslide susceptibility map was predicted using deep neural network (DNN) and CNN models. The model and landslide susceptibility map were verified through average precision (AP) and root mean square errors (RMSE), and as a result of the verification, the patch-based CNN model showed 3.4% improved performance compared to the pixel-based DNN model. The results of this study can be used to predict landslides and are expected to serve as a scientific basis for establishing land use policies and landslide management policies.

Grapevine Growth and Berry Development under the Agrivoltaic Solar Panels in the Vineyards (영농형 태양광 시설 설치에 따른 포도나무 생육 및 과실 특성 변화 비교)

  • Ahn, Soon Young;Lee, Dan Bi;Lee, Hae In;Myint, Zar Le;Min, Sang Yoon;Kim, Bo Myung;Oh, Wook;Jung, Jae Hak;Yun, Hae Keun
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.356-365
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    • 2022
  • Agrivoltaic systems, also called solar sharing, stated from an idea that utilizes sunlight above the light saturation point of crops for power generation using solar panels. The agrivoltaic systems are expected to reduce the incident solar radiation, the consequent surface cooling effect, and evapotranspiration, and bring additional income to farms through solar power generation by combining crops with solar photovoltaics. In this study, to evaluate if agrivoltaic systems are suitable for viticulture, we investigated the microclimatic change, the growth of vines and the characteristics of grape grown under solar panels set by planting lines compared with ones in open vineyards. There was high reduction of wind speed during over-wintering season, and low soil temperature under solar panel compared to those in the open field. There was not significant difference in total carbohydrates and bud burst in bearing mother branches between plots. Despite high content of chlorophyll in vines grown under panels, there is no significant difference in shoot growth of vines, berry weight, cluster weight, total soluble solid content and acidity of berries, and anthocyanin content of berry skins in harvested grapes in vineyards under panels and open vineyards. It was observed that harvesting season was delayed by 7-10 days due to late skin coloration in grapes grown in vineyards under panels compared to ones grown in open vineyards. The results from this study would be used as data required in development of viticulture system under panel in the future and further study for evaluating the influence of agrivoltaic system on production of crops including grapes.

Effects of Change in Patient Position on Radiation Dose to Surrounding Organs During Chest Lateral Radiography with Auto Exposure Control Mode (자동노출제어장치를 적용한 흉부 측면 방사선검사 시 환자 위치 변화가 주변 장기의 선량에 미치는 영향)

  • Seung-Uk Kim;Cheong-Hwan Lim;Young-Cheol Joo;Sin-Young Yu
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.903-909
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    • 2023
  • The purpose of this study is to compare and analyze the effect of changes in the patient's central position on the exposure dose and image quality of surrounding organs during a chest lateral examination using an Auto Exposure Control(AEC). The experiment was conducted on a human body phantom. A needle was attached to the lower part of the center of the coronal plane of the phantom, and a lead ruler was attached to the lower part of the detector so that the 50 cm point was located at the lower center of the AEC ion chamber. The exposure conditions were 125 kVp, 320 mA, the distance between the source and the image receptor was 180 cm, and the exposure field size was 14 × 17 inches. Only one AEC ion chamber was used at the bottom center, and the density was set to '0' and sensitivity to 'Middle', and the central X-ray was incident vertically toward the 6th thoracic vertebra. With AEC mode applied, the 50 cm point of the needle and lead ruler were aligned and the phantom was moved 5 cm toward the stomach (F5) and 5 cm toward the back (B5), and the dose factor was analyzed by measuring ESD. The ESD of the thyroid gland according to the change in patient center position was 232.60±2.20 μGy for Center, 231.22±1.53 μGy for F5, and 184.37±1.19 μGy for B5, and the ESD of the breast was 288.54±3.03 μGy for Center, F5 was 260.97±1.93 μGy, B5 was 229.80±1.62 μGy, and the ESD of the center of the lung was 337.02±3.25 μGy for Center, F5 was 336.09±2.29 μGy, and B5 was 261.76±1.68 μGy. As a result of comparing the average values of dose factors between each group, the difference in average values was statistically significant (p<0.01), and each group appeared to be independent. As a result of the study, there was no significant difference in the dose to the thyroid, breast, and center of the lung according to the change in the patient's central position, except for the breast (10%) when the patient moved forward about 5 cm. However, movement of about 5 cm posteriorly resulted in an average dose reduction of 23.7%. Additionally, when the patient's central position was moved to the rear, image quality deteriorated.

Region of Interest Extraction and Bilinear Interpolation Application for Preprocessing of Lipreading Systems (입 모양 인식 시스템 전처리를 위한 관심 영역 추출과 이중 선형 보간법 적용)

  • Jae Hyeok Han;Yong Ki Kim;Mi Hye Kim
    • The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.189-198
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    • 2024
  • Lipreading is one of the important parts of speech recognition, and several studies have been conducted to improve the performance of lipreading in lipreading systems for speech recognition. Recent studies have used method to modify the model architecture of lipreading system to improve recognition performance. Unlike previous research that improve recognition performance by modifying model architecture, we aim to improve recognition performance without any change in model architecture. In order to improve the recognition performance without modifying the model architecture, we refer to the cues used in human lipreading and set other regions such as chin and cheeks as regions of interest along with the lip region, which is the existing region of interest of lipreading systems, and compare the recognition rate of each region of interest to propose the highest performing region of interest In addition, assuming that the difference in normalization results caused by the difference in interpolation method during the process of normalizing the size of the region of interest affects the recognition performance, we interpolate the same region of interest using nearest neighbor interpolation, bilinear interpolation, and bicubic interpolation, and compare the recognition rate of each interpolation method to propose the best performing interpolation method. Each region of interest was detected by training an object detection neural network, and dynamic time warping templates were generated by normalizing each region of interest, extracting and combining features, and mapping the dimensionality reduction of the combined features into a low-dimensional space. The recognition rate was evaluated by comparing the distance between the generated dynamic time warping templates and the data mapped to the low-dimensional space. In the comparison of regions of interest, the result of the region of interest containing only the lip region showed an average recognition rate of 97.36%, which is 3.44% higher than the average recognition rate of 93.92% in the previous study, and in the comparison of interpolation methods, the bilinear interpolation method performed 97.36%, which is 14.65% higher than the nearest neighbor interpolation method and 5.55% higher than the bicubic interpolation method. The code used in this study can be found a https://github.com/haraisi2/Lipreading-Systems.

The Study of Characteristics of Consumer Purchasing Private Brand Products at Large-Scale Mart (국내 대형마트의 유통업체 브랜드 상품 구매 소비자의 특성 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Hwang, Seong-Huyk;Lee, Jung-Hee;Roh, Eun-Jung
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2010
  • As having the movement of developing private brand (PB) goods, domestic big retailers are facing up with new problems. Thus, it is required studies of PB products, and how consumers recognize PB products as a consideration commodity set. Also, it is worthy in order that it gives us the important meaning on the marketing strategy with focusing on evaluating the differences between customers buying PB grocery goods with respect to demographic characteristics and purchasing behaviors. PB has some advantages for customers and retailers. However, according to AC Nielson's report (2005), Asian and emerging market has 1/5 sales relatively to Western countries. But we can assume that the emerging market has the most potential growth through this result. As a result from several other studies, it becomes necessary to not only increase the rate of selling composition of PB product temporarily, but also analyze the characteristics of customers using big retailers and segmenting customer groups to make PB product as a consideration commodity set for them. In addition, it is needed to have a variety of acts of marketing. From studies related to PB, there is a prejudice - cheap products have low quality - but, evaluation by customers who have used those products shows neutral stand, and there is a study representing that it is the most important to accumulate the belief between the retailers selling PB products and consumers using those for the accurate evaluation and intention on purchasing. Also, by the result from analyzing the characteristics of customers buying PB products, we could assume that higher income and higher education level, more preference on PB products. Especially, according to TNS's research, the primary targets of PB product are 30's who seeks value for money and planned spending habits, and 40's who have teenager children, and are interested in encouraging themselves. This paper used Probit model to analyze the characteristics of consumers. This model helps us to analyze with the variables representing the demographic characteristics of consumers (gender, age, educational level, occupation, income level, living area), and variables related to purchasing behavior (visiting frequency on big retailers, the average amount that they pay for goods in there, and check-up which brand made those goods). The method we used in this study is by man to man interview and survey on-line with the rate of 89% and 11% in Seoul and Gyunggi Province, respectively, for about one month from the beginning of February, 2008. As a result of this, under the assumption that people buy PB products more as long as they go shopping more, it was not meaningful for target groups which we pointed out as frequently visiting customers to be. Although, we have expected women buy more PB products than men do, gender doesn't mean anything for the result. And, it has inferred that married people buy more PB goods than singles do. It was also meaningless with variables related to occupation. Because housewives are often exposed to any kind of supermarket than workers are, we could not get any relatives. Moreover, we couldn't proof that younger generation prefer big retailers more than older people who 50~60's. Education levels doesn't affect on the purchase of PB product as well. Related to living area, the result is statistically not similar as we expected whether living in Seoul or not. It shows there is no relationship with the preference on retail brands and PB products, and it is similar with the study researched by TNS(2008) that customers tend to buy PB product impulsively no matter which brand it is and where they are even though their shopping place is the big market where customers are often using. Variables on which we had meaningful results are income level and living place. That is, customers who have 3,000,000~6,000,000 WON every month on average are more willing to buy PB products than other customers whose income is over 6,000,000 WON, and residents not living in Seoul prefer PB goods than those who are living in Seoul. To explain more about what we got, if there is only one condition about customer's visiting frequency on big retails, we could come up with this result that more exposed to PB products, more purchasing frequency. Consequently, it brings the important insight that large retailers have to prepare something to make customers visit them often to increase selling rate of PB products. To demonstrate the result of analyzing more, what is more efficient variables are demographically including marital status, income level, and residential area to buy items that affect the PB products and could include the frequency of visiting large markets by the purchase habits. Specifically, then, married couples rather than singles, middle-income customers than high-income customers, and local residents not living in Seoul than customers in Seoul are more likely to purchase PB goods. In addition, as long as a customer visits two times more, then the purchasing rate of PB products is to increase over 5.3%. Therefore, it seems that retailers are better to make a shopping place as fun and comfortable places. With overwhelming the idea that PB products are just cheap, one-time purchase goods, it is needed to increase the loyalty on those goods like NB products, try to make PB products as a consideration products set, and occur to sustainable sales. Especially, as suggested by this paper, it seems like it strongly needs to identify the characteristics of customers who prefer PB, to segment those customers, and to select the main target, and to do positioning with well-planned marketing strategies. Then, it is able to give us a meaningful point on marketing strategy by developing the field of PB study, identifying the difference of life style and shopping habits of customers.

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Quantitative Differences between X-Ray CT-Based and $^{137}Cs$-Based Attenuation Correction in Philips Gemini PET/CT (GEMINI PET/CT의 X-ray CT, $^{137}Cs$ 기반 511 keV 광자 감쇠계수의 정량적 차이)

  • Kim, Jin-Su;Lee, Jae-Sung;Lee, Dong-Soo;Park, Eun-Kyung;Kim, Jong-Hyo;Kim, Jae-Il;Lee, Hong-Jae;Chung, June-Key;Lee, Myung-Chul
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.182-190
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    • 2005
  • Purpose: There are differences between Standard Uptake Value (SUV) of CT attenuation corrected PET and that of $^{137}Cs$. Since various causes lead to difference of SUV, it is important to know what is the cause of these difference. Since only the X-ray CT and $^{137}Cs$ transmission data are used for the attenuation correction, in Philips GEMINI PET/CT scanner, proper transformation of these data into usable attenuation coefficients for 511 keV photon has to be ascertained. The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy in the CT measurement and compare the CT and $^{137}Cs$-based attenuation correction in this scanner. Methods: For all the experiments, CT was set to 40 keV (120 kVp) and 50 mAs. To evaluate the accuracy of the CT measurement, CT performance phantom was scanned and Hounsfield units (HU) for those regions were compared to the true values. For the comparison of CT and $^{137}Cs$-based attenuation corrections, transmission scans of the elliptical lung-spine-body phantom and electron density CT phantom composed of various components, such as water, bone, brain and adipose, were performed using CT and $^{137}Cs$. Transformed attenuation coefficients from these data were compared to each other and true 511 keV attenuation coefficient acquired using $^{68}Ge$ and ECAT EXACT 47 scanner. In addition, CT and $^{137}Cs$-derived attenuation coefficients and SUV values for $^{18}F$-FDG measured from the regions with normal and pathological uptake in patients' data were also compared. Results: HU of all the regions in CT performance phantom measured using GEMINI PET/CT were equivalent to the known true values. CT based attenuation coefficients were lower than those of $^{68}Ge$ about 10% in bony region of NEMA ECT phantom. Attenuation coefficients derived from $^{137}Cs$ data was slightly higher than those from CT data also in the images of electron density CT phantom and patients' body with electron density. However, the SUV values in attenuation corrected images using $^{137}Cs$ were lower than images corrected using CT. Percent difference between SUV values was about 15%. Conclusion: Although the HU measured using this scanner was accurate, accuracy in the conversion from CT data into the 511 keV attenuation coefficients was limited in the bony region. Discrepancy in the transformed attenuation coefficients and SUV values between CT and $^{137}Cs$-based data shown in this study suggests that further optimization of various parameters in data acquisition and processing would be necessary for this scanner.

Study on the Effects of Shop Choice Properties on Brand Attitudes: Focus on Six Major Coffee Shop Brands (점포선택속성이 브랜드 태도에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구: 6개 메이저 브랜드 커피전문점을 중심으로)

  • Yi, Weon-Ho;Kim, Su-Ok;Lee, Sang-Youn;Youn, Myoung-Kil
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.51-61
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    • 2012
  • This study seeks to understand how the choice of a coffee shop is related to a customer's loyalty and which characteristics of a shop influence this choice. It considers large-sized coffee shops brands whose market scale has gradually grown. The users' choice of shop is determined by price, employee service, shop location, and shop atmosphere. The study investigated the effects of these four properties on the brand attitudes of coffee shops. The effects were found to vary depending on users' characteristics. The properties with the largest influence were shop atmosphere and shop location Therefore, the purpose of the study was to examine the properties that could help coffee shops get loyal customers, and the choice properties that could satisfy consumers' desires The study examined consumers' perceptions of shop properties at selection of coffee shop and the difference between perceptual difference and coffee brand in order to investigate customers' desires and needs and to suggest ways that could supply products and service. The research methodology consisted of two parts: normative and empirical research, which includes empirical analysis and statistical analysis. In this study, a statistical analysis of the empirical research was carried out. The study theoretically confirmed the shop choice properties by reviewing previous studies and performed an empirical analysis including cross tabulation based on secondary material. The findings were as follows: First, coffee shop choice properties varied by gender. Price advantage influenced the choice of both men and women; men preferred nearer coffee shops where they could buy coffee easily and more conveniently than women did. The atmosphere of the coffee shop had the greatest influence on both men and women, and shop atmosphere was thought to be the most important for age analysis. In the past, customers selected coffee shops solely to drink coffee. Now, they select the coffee shop according to its interior, menu variety, and atmosphere owing to improved quality and service of coffee shop brands. Second, the prices of the brands did not vary much because the coffee shops were similarly priced. The service was thought to be more important and to elevate service quality so that price and employee service and other properties did not have a great influence on shop choice. However, those working in the farming, forestry, fishery, and livestock industries were more concerned with the price than the shop atmosphere. College and graduate school students were also affected by inexpensive price. Third, shop choice properties varied depending on income. The shop location and shop atmosphere had a greater influence on shop choice. The customers in an income bracket of less than 2 million won selected low-price coffee shops more than those earning 6 million won or more. Therefore, price advantage had no relation with difference in income. The higher income group was not affected by employee service. Fourth, shop choice properties varied depending on place. For instance, customers at Ulsan were the most affected by the price, and the ones at Busan were the least affected. The shop location had the greatest influence among all of the properties. Among the places surveyed, Gwangju had the least influence. The alternate use of space in a coffee shop was thought to be important in all the cities under consideration. The customers at Ulsan were not affected by employee service, and they selected coffee shops according to quality and preference of shop atmosphere. Lastly, the price factor was found to be a little higher than other factors when customers frequently selected brands according to shop properties. Customers at Gwangju reacted to discounts more than those in other cities did, and the former gave less priority to the quality and taste of coffee. Brand preference varied depending on coffee shop location. Customers at Busan selected brands according to the coffee shop location, and those at Ulsan were not influenced by employee kindness and specialty. The implications of this study are that franchise coffee shop businesses should focus on customers rather than aggressive marketing strategies that increase the number of coffee shops. Thus, they should create an environment with a good atmosphere and set up coffee shops in places that customers have good access to. This study has some limitations. First, the respondents were concentrated in metropolitan areas. Secondary data showed that the number of respondents at Seoul was much more than that at Gyeonggi-do. Furthermore, the number of respondents at Gyeonggi-do was much more than those at the six major cities in the nation. Thus, the regional sample was not representative enough of the population. Second, respondents' ratio was used as a measurement scale to test the perception of shop choice properties and brand preference. The difficulties arose when examining the relation between these properties and brand preference, as well as when understanding the difference between groups. Therefore, future research should seek to address some of the shortcomings of this study: If the coffee shops are being expanded to local areas, then a questionnaire survey of consumers at small cities in local areas shall be conducted to collect primary material. In particular, variables of the questionnaire survey shall be measured using Likert scales in order to include perception on shop choice properties, brand preference, and repurchase. Therefore, correlation analysis, multi-regression, and ANOVA shall be used for empirical analysis and to investigate consumers' attitudes and behavior in detail.

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A study on the distribution basis and aspect of teachers holding additional school health (양호겸직교사의 배치근거 및 분포양상)

  • Lee, Jeong Yim
    • Journal of the Korean Society of School Health
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.58-90
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    • 1989
  • This study was attempted to contribute to the development of school health by providing the basic data about the distribution basis and distribution aspect of teachers holding additional school health that are in charge of school health business in parimary schools, middle schools and high schools without any nurse-teacher. This study analyzed literatures about the history, related laws, organization and professional manpower of school health. The emphasis was set on the distribution basis of theachers holding additional school health. The results of this study are as following: 1. The school health of the world dates to the late 18th century in Europe where was free supplying with food for poor children. The school health of Korea orginated from smallpox vaccination which was executed with appearance of modern schools in the late 19th century. 2. The related laws of school health began as a part of Education Law with was constituted in 1949. By the School Health Law constituted in 1967 and the enforcement ordinance of School Health made firm the legal basis of school health. 3. The administrative organs of school health are the Ministry of Education in center and each Board of Education in cities and provinces. For the first time in 1979, the department of school health was established in the organization of the Ministry of Education. And at about the same time of establishment of the department of school health, health section was established in the department of social physical-training in locality. 4. In the manpower of school health which was presented in the related statute of school health, there are the ward chief of education, the superintendent of educational affair, of cities and districts, the mayors, the governors of provinces, the school managers, the principals, the school doctors, the school pharmacists, and the nurse-teachers, including teachers holding additional school health as the practical manpower of school health. 5. In order to get some information on distribution aspect of teachers additional school health, this study made up a questionnaire from August 3 to August 11, 1988. The subjects of this study were 212 leachers who took part in the yearly training for teachers holding additional school health from Kyunggi province, Chungbuk province and Jeonbuk province. The results of the questionnaire are as following: 1. The distribution percentages of teachers holding additional school health according to each Board of Education wich schools are subject to, are as following:70.1% (Kyunggi), 76.5% (Chungbuk), and 81.4% (Jeonbuk). There was a significant difference. The distribution percentages of teachers holding additional school health according to the school levels of 3 provinces are as following: 74.1% (Primary schools), 77.8% (Middle schools), 76.7% (High schools). There were little significant differences. 2. The distribution according to the general characteristics of the subject schools: There were 64.2 percent of primary schools and 35.8 percent of middle schools among 212 schools. 91. 5 percent of schools were located in districts. Public schools formed 55.7% and then national schools were higher in percentage than private schools. 58.5 percent of schools had 1-9 classes, 64.6 percent of schools had 101-500 students, and 90 percents of schools had 1-20 teachers. In considering student sex, the coed school showed the high distribution percentage (Primary schools : 100%, Middle schools: 81.6%). 3. The distribution according to the characteristics of teachers holding additional school health: 93.3 percent of teachers were female, and more than 60 percent of teachers were 20-29 years old. As the age got higher, the percentage became lower. There were little significant differences by marital status. In considering their educational status, 86.8 percent of teachers in primary schools were from teacher's colleges, and 64.5 percent of teachers in middle schools were from education colleges. In considering teaching career, 46.7 percent of teachers had teaching career of less than 2 years. 73.6 percent of teachers had held additional school health for less than one year. More than 80 percent of teachers had participated in the training one time or twice. More than 70 percent of teachers had 1-2 additional jobs except for the school health business. The motivation to hold additional school health is most caused by mandatory order, which accounts for more than 80.0 percent. In considering interesting degree concerning school health, lukewarm answer is the highest of 62.7 percent, followed by affirmative answer of 23.6 percent. In considering their contentment degree respecting additional school health job, "discontent or very discontent"is the highest of 47.6 percent. As a descontent reason of additional school health job, overwork is the highest factor of 37.9 percent. Among addiitional school health job, the most difficult affair is nursing service to be 34.0 percent, followed by health education of 31.6 percent. It testify the need of professional. The source of knowledge about school health has been acquired from masscommunication or private health experience, which account for as much as 56.1 percent. It shows seriousness of lack of professionalism. With regard to neccessity of school health experts, 95.8 percent represents absolute need. With above consideration of study results, I propose as follows : 1. I propose that the authorities concerned unify and improve statute respecting current school health which has not been steadfastly supporting school health business by ambiguity of expression and dualization. 2. I propose that the authorities concerned give the school manager, school staffs and parents of students educational chance with which they can acknowledge the importance of school health and in which they can participate as well as set up alternative policy plan to be albe to vitalize school health committee. 3. I propose that administrative organization practicable to taking totally charge of school health business is established within the Ministry of Education. 4. I propose that the authorities concerned back up and cooperate in an attempt by make school health better and desirable toward development by way of appointing qualitied health teachers on the basis of legally regular teacher staffs.

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A Data-based Sales Forecasting Support System for New Businesses (데이터기반의 신규 사업 매출추정방법 연구: 지능형 사업평가 시스템을 중심으로)

  • Jun, Seung-Pyo;Sung, Tae-Eung;Choi, San
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2017
  • Analysis of future business or investment opportunities, such as business feasibility analysis and company or technology valuation, necessitate objective estimation on the relevant market and expected sales. While there are various ways to classify the estimation methods of these new sales or market size, they can be broadly divided into top-down and bottom-up approaches by benchmark references. Both methods, however, require a lot of resources and time. Therefore, we propose a data-based intelligent demand forecasting system to support evaluation of new business. This study focuses on analogical forecasting, one of the traditional quantitative forecasting methods, to develop sales forecasting intelligence systems for new businesses. Instead of simply estimating sales for a few years, we hereby propose a method of estimating the sales of new businesses by using the initial sales and the sales growth rate of similar companies. To demonstrate the appropriateness of this method, it is examined whether the sales performance of recently established companies in the same industry category in Korea can be utilized as a reference variable for the analogical forecasting. In this study, we examined whether the phenomenon of "mean reversion" was observed in the sales of start-up companies in order to identify errors in estimating sales of new businesses based on industry sales growth rate and whether the differences in business environment resulting from the different timing of business launch affects growth rate. We also conducted analyses of variance (ANOVA) and latent growth model (LGM) to identify differences in sales growth rates by industry category. Based on the results, we proposed industry-specific range and linear forecasting models. This study analyzed the sales of only 150,000 start-up companies in Korea in the last 10 years, and identified that the average growth rate of start-ups in Korea is higher than the industry average in the first few years, but it shortly shows the phenomenon of mean-reversion. In addition, although the start-up founding juncture affects the sales growth rate, it is not high significantly and the sales growth rate can be different according to the industry classification. Utilizing both this phenomenon and the performance of start-up companies in relevant industries, we have proposed two models of new business sales based on the sales growth rate. The method proposed in this study makes it possible to objectively and quickly estimate the sales of new business by industry, and it is expected to provide reference information to judge whether sales estimated by other methods (top-down/bottom-up approach) pass the bounds from ordinary cases in relevant industry. In particular, the results of this study can be practically used as useful reference information for business feasibility analysis or technical valuation for entering new business. When using the existing top-down method, it can be used to set the range of market size or market share. As well, when using the bottom-up method, the estimation period may be set in accordance of the mean reverting period information for the growth rate. The two models proposed in this study will enable rapid and objective sales estimation of new businesses, and are expected to improve the efficiency of business feasibility analysis and technology valuation process by developing intelligent information system. In academic perspectives, it is a very important discovery that the phenomenon of 'mean reversion' is found among start-up companies out of general small-and-medium enterprises (SMEs) as well as stable companies such as listed companies. In particular, there exists the significance of this study in that over the large-scale data the mean reverting phenomenon of the start-up firms' sales growth rate is different from that of the listed companies, and that there is a difference in each industry. If a linear model, which is useful for estimating the sales of a specific company, is highly likely to be utilized in practical aspects, it can be explained that the range model, which can be used for the estimation method of the sales of the unspecified firms, is highly likely to be used in political aspects. It implies that when analyzing the business activities and performance of a specific industry group or enterprise group there is political usability in that the range model enables to provide references and compare them by data based start-up sales forecasting system.

Studies on Genetics and Breeding in Rainbow Trout(Oncorhynchus mykiss) VII. Fertilization of Fresh Egg with Co-Preserved Sperm and Ultrastructural Changes (무지개 송어의 유전 육종학적 연구 VII. 동결보존시킨 정자와 신선한 난모세포의 수정 및 미세구조적 변화)

  • PARK Hong-Yang;YOON Jong-Man
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.79-92
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    • 1992
  • This study was carried out to develop new techniques useful for cryopreservation, thawing and artificial insemination, and ultrastructural changes of cryopreserved spermatozoa in rainbow trout(Oncorhynchus mykiss) . Two extenders, such as Tyrode solution and Whittingham's $T_6$ solution, were used to preserve rainbow trout sperm in refrigerator $(-20,\;-40\;and\;-70^{\circ}C)$ or liquid nitrogen $%(-196^{\circ})$. Hand-stripped semen was diluted to 1:16 with two extenders, an then the semen were frozen after mixing semen and each extender containing 1M or 1.5M DMSO solution to 1:1. After 60 days cryopreserved semen was thawed in a $13^{\circ}$ water bath, and subsequently centrifugated. After centrifugation at 1,000 rpm for 5 min thawed semen was washed with extenders, and then fertilized with fresh eggs. The results obtained in these experiments were summarized as follows: After cryopreservation, over 75% of spermatozoa were appeared motile and the survival rate was high. Following cryopreservation by the addition of cryoprotectant such as DMSO, methanol and glycerol, the fertilization rate of the thawed spermatozoa appeared over $99\%$ compared with the control having $99\%$ of fertilization rate. There was no difference between the control and experimental groups such as $(-20^{\circ}C\;-40^{\circ}C\;and\;-70^{\circ}C)$ and $-196^{\circ}$ in fertilization rate. Following cryopreservation at $-196^{\circ}$ by the addition of 1M DMSO of cryoprotectant, each fertilization rate following 24 hours and hatching rate following 24 days showed $96\%$ and $8\%$ by the addition of BSA, but showed $98\%\;and\;10%$ by no addition of BSA. Following 2 months of cryopreservation by the addition of 1M DMSO of cryoprotectant, there were $10%$ of hatching rate at $-196^{\circ}\;and\;10\%\;and\;35\%,\;respectively,\;at\;-40^{\circ}C\;and\;-70^{\circ}C$. Following 2 months of cryopreservation by the addition of 1M methanol of cryoprotectant, there were $22\%$ of fertilization rate at $-20^{\circ}C,\;and\;28\%,\;at\;-70^{\circ}C$ Following 2 months of cryopreservation by the addition of 1M glycerol of cryoprotectant, there were $22\%$ of fertilization rate at $-20^{\circ}C$, and $33\%,\;at\;-70^{\circ}C$. pollowing 2 months of cryopreservation by the addition of 1.5M DMSO of cryoprotectant, there were $27\%$ of fertilization rate at $-20^{\circ}C,\;an\;36\%\;and \;35\%,\;respectively,\;at\;-40^{\circ}C\;and\;-70^{\circ}C$. Following 2 months of cryopreservation by the addition of 1.5M glycerol of cryoprotectant, there were $34\% \;of\;fertilization\;rate\;at\;-20^{\circ}C, \;and\;31\%\;and\;31\%,\;respectively,\;at \;-40^{\circ}C\;and\;-70^{\circ}$. Following 2 months of cryopreservation by the addition of 1.5M methanol of cryoprotectant, there were $28\%$ of fertilization rate at $-20^{\circ}C,\;and\;29\%\;and\;28\%,\;respectively,\;at\;-40^{\circ}C\;and\;-70^{\circ}C.$ From 10 days and 15 days following fertilization at $13^{\circ}C\;and\;10^{\circ}C$, respectively, the mortality rate of fertilized ova was markedly increased. The middle piece of spermatozoa had two set of central doublets, nine set of outer coarse fibres, and mitochondrial sheath. Spermatozoa went through morphological changes during storage, e.g. winding of flagella, detachment of the nuclear envelope and the plasma membrane from the nucleus of the sperm head. There were $1\%$ abnormal spermatozoa in fresh sperm and about $15\%$ during storage.

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