• Title/Summary/Keyword: Development System

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Influence analysis of Internet buzz to corporate performance : Individual stock price prediction using sentiment analysis of online news (온라인 언급이 기업 성과에 미치는 영향 분석 : 뉴스 감성분석을 통한 기업별 주가 예측)

  • Jeong, Ji Seon;Kim, Dong Sung;Kim, Jong Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.37-51
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    • 2015
  • Due to the development of internet technology and the rapid increase of internet data, various studies are actively conducted on how to use and analyze internet data for various purposes. In particular, in recent years, a number of studies have been performed on the applications of text mining techniques in order to overcome the limitations of the current application of structured data. Especially, there are various studies on sentimental analysis to score opinions based on the distribution of polarity such as positivity or negativity of vocabularies or sentences of the texts in documents. As a part of such studies, this study tries to predict ups and downs of stock prices of companies by performing sentimental analysis on news contexts of the particular companies in the Internet. A variety of news on companies is produced online by different economic agents, and it is diffused quickly and accessed easily in the Internet. So, based on inefficient market hypothesis, we can expect that news information of an individual company can be used to predict the fluctuations of stock prices of the company if we apply proper data analysis techniques. However, as the areas of corporate management activity are different, an analysis considering characteristics of each company is required in the analysis of text data based on machine-learning. In addition, since the news including positive or negative information on certain companies have various impacts on other companies or industry fields, an analysis for the prediction of the stock price of each company is necessary. Therefore, this study attempted to predict changes in the stock prices of the individual companies that applied a sentimental analysis of the online news data. Accordingly, this study chose top company in KOSPI 200 as the subjects of the analysis, and collected and analyzed online news data by each company produced for two years on a representative domestic search portal service, Naver. In addition, considering the differences in the meanings of vocabularies for each of the certain economic subjects, it aims to improve performance by building up a lexicon for each individual company and applying that to an analysis. As a result of the analysis, the accuracy of the prediction by each company are different, and the prediction accurate rate turned out to be 56% on average. Comparing the accuracy of the prediction of stock prices on industry sectors, 'energy/chemical', 'consumer goods for living' and 'consumer discretionary' showed a relatively higher accuracy of the prediction of stock prices than other industries, while it was found that the sectors such as 'information technology' and 'shipbuilding/transportation' industry had lower accuracy of prediction. The number of the representative companies in each industry collected was five each, so it is somewhat difficult to generalize, but it could be confirmed that there was a difference in the accuracy of the prediction of stock prices depending on industry sectors. In addition, at the individual company level, the companies such as 'Kangwon Land', 'KT & G' and 'SK Innovation' showed a relatively higher prediction accuracy as compared to other companies, while it showed that the companies such as 'Young Poong', 'LG', 'Samsung Life Insurance', and 'Doosan' had a low prediction accuracy of less than 50%. In this paper, we performed an analysis of the share price performance relative to the prediction of individual companies through the vocabulary of pre-built company to take advantage of the online news information. In this paper, we aim to improve performance of the stock prices prediction, applying online news information, through the stock price prediction of individual companies. Based on this, in the future, it will be possible to find ways to increase the stock price prediction accuracy by complementing the problem of unnecessary words that are added to the sentiment dictionary.

Evaluation of Cryptosporidiurn Disinfection by Ozone and Ultraviolet Irradiation Using Viability and Infectivity Assays (크립토스포리디움의 활성/감염성 판별법을 이용한 오존 및 자외선 소독능 평가)

  • Park Sang-Jung;Cho Min;Yoon Je-Yong;Jun Yong-Sung;Rim Yeon-Taek;Jin Ing-Nyol;Chung Hyen-Mi
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.16 no.3 s.76
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    • pp.534-539
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    • 2006
  • In the ozone disinfection unit process of a piston type batch reactor with continuous ozone analysis using a flow injection analysis (FIA) system, the CT values for 1 log inactivation of Cryptosporidium parvum by viability assays of DAPI/PI and excystation were $1.8{\sim}2.2\;mg/L{\cdot}min$ at $25^{\circ}C$ and $9.1mg/L{\cdot}min$ at $5^{\circ}C$, respectively. At the low temperature, ozone requirement rises $4{\sim}5$ times higher in order to achieve the same level of disinfection at room temperature. In a 40 L scale pilot plant with continuous flow and constant 5 minutes retention time, disinfection effects were evaluated using excystation, DAPI/PI, and cell infection method at the same time. About 0.2 log inactivation of Cryptosporidium by DAPI/PI and excystation assay, and 1.2 log inactivation by cell infectivity assay were estimated, respectively, at the CT value of about $8mg/L{\cdot}min$. The difference between DAPI/PI and excystation assay was not significant in evaluating CT values of Cryptosporidium by ozone in both experiment of the piston and the pilot reactors. However, there was significant difference between viability assay based on the intact cell wall structure and function and infectivity assay based on the developing oocysts to sporozoites and merozoites in the pilot study. The stage of development should be more sensitive to ozone oxidation than cell wall intactness of oocysts. The difference of CT values estimated by viability assay between two studies may partly come from underestimation of the residual ozone concentration due to the manual monitoring in the pilot study, or the difference of the reactor scale (50 mL vs 40 L) and types (batch vs continuous). Adequate If value to disinfect 1 and 2 log scale of Cryptosporidium in UV irradiation process was 25 $mWs/cm^2$ and 50 $mWs/cm^2$, respectively, at $25^{\circ}C$ by DAPI/PI. At $5^{\circ}C$, 40 $mWs/cm^2$ was required for disinfecting 1 log Cryptosporidium, and 80 $mWs/cm^2$ for disinfecting 2 log Cryptosporidium. It was thought that about 60% increase of If value requirement to compensate for the $20^{\circ}C$ decrease in temperature was due to the low voltage low output lamp letting weaker UV rays occur at lower temperatures.

Factors influencing the axes of anterior teeth during SWA on masse sliding retraction with orthodontic mini-implant anchorage: a finite element study (교정용 미니 임플랜트 고정원과 SWA on masse sliding retraction 시 전치부 치축 조절 요인에 관한 유한요소해석)

  • Jeong, Hye-Sim;Moon, Yoon-Shik;Cho, Young-Soo;Lim, Seung-Min;Sung, Sang-Jin
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.339-348
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    • 2006
  • Objective: With development of the skeletal anchorage system, orthodontic mini-implant (OMI) assisted on masse sliding retraction has become part of general orthodontic treatment. But compared to the emphasis on successful anchorage preparation, the control of anterior teeth axis has not been emphasized enough. Methods: A 3-D finite element Base model of maxillary dental arch and a Lingual tipping model with lingually inclined anterior teeth were constructed. To evaluate factors influencing the axis of anterior teeth when OMI was used as anchorage, models were simulated with 2 mm or 5 mm retraction hooks and/or by the addition of 4 mm of compensating curve (CC) on the main archwire. The stress distribution on the roots and a 25000 times enlarged axis graph were evaluated. Results: Intrusive component of retraction force directed postero-superiorly from the 2 mm height hook did not reduce the lingual tipping of anterior teeth. When hook height was increased to 5 mm, lateral incisor showed crown-labial and root-lingual torque and uncontrolled tipping of the canine was increased.4 mm of CC added to the main archwire also induced crown-labial and root-lingual torque of the lateral incisor but uncontrolled tipping of the canine was decreased. Lingual tipping model showed very similar results compared with the Base model. Conclusion: The results of this study showed that height of the hook and compensating curve on the main archwire can influence the axis of anterior teeth. These data can be used as guidelines for clinical application.

A Study on the Expressed Desire at Discharge of Patients to Use Home Nursing and Affecting Factors of the Desire (퇴원환자의 가정간호 이용의사와 관련 요인)

  • Lee, Ji-Hyun;Lee, Young-Eun;Lee, Myung-Hwa;Sohn, Sue-Kyung
    • The Korean Journal of Rehabilitation Nursing
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.257-270
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    • 1999
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate factors related to the intent of using home nursing of chronic disease patients who got out of a university hospital. For the purpose, the study selected 153 patients who were hospitalized and left K university hospital with diagnoses of cancer, hypertension, diabetes and cerebral vascular accident and ordered to be discharged and performed interviews with them and surveys on their medical records to obtain the following results. For this study a direct-interview survey and medical record review was conducted from June 28 to Aug. 30, 1998. The frequency and mean values were computed to find the characteristics of the study subjects, and $X^2$-test, t-test, factor analysis and multiple logistic regession analysis were applied for the analysis of the data. The following results were obtained. 1) When characteristics of the subjects were examined, men and women occupied for 58.8% and 41.2%, respectively. The subjects were 41.3 years old in aver age and had the monthly aver age earning of 0.99 million won or below, which was the most out of the total subjects at 34.6%. Among the total, 87.6% resided in cities and 12.4 in counties. The most left the hospital with diagnosis of cancer at 51.6%, followed by hyper tension at 24.2%, diabetes at 13.7% and cerebral vascular accident at 7.2%. 2) 93.5% of the selected patients had the intent of using home nursing and 6.5%, didn't. Among those patients having the intent, 85.6% had the intent of paying for home nursing and 14.4%, didn't. The subjects expected that the nursing would be paid 9,143 won in aver age and 47.7% of them preferred national authorities as the main servers. 86.3% of the subjects thought that home nursing business had the main advantage of making it possible to learn nursing methods at home and thereby contributing to improving the ability of patients and their facilities to solve health problems. 3) Relations between the intent of use and characteristics of the subjects such as demography-related social, home environment, disease and physical function characteristics did not show statistically significant differences among one another. Compared to those who had no intent of using home nursing, the group having the intent had more cases of male patients, the age of 39 or below, residence in cities, 5 family member s or more, no existence of home nursing servers, leaving the hospital from a non-hospitalized building, disease development for five months or below, hospitalization for ten days or more, non-hospitalization with in the recent one month, two times or over of hospitalization, leaving the hospital with no demand of special treatment, operation underwent, poor results of treatment, leaving the hospital with demand of rehabilitation services, physical disablement and high evaluation point of daily life. 4) Among those patients having the intent of using home nursing, 47.6% demanded technical nursing and 55.9%, supportive nursing. As technical nursing,' inject into a blood vessel ' and 'treat pustule and teach basic prevention methods occupied for 57.4%, respectively, topping the list. Among demands of supportive nursing, 'observe patients 'status and refer them to hospitals or community resources as available, if necessary' was the most with percent age point of 59.5. Regarding the intent of paying for home nursing, 39.2% of those patients wishing to use the nursing responded paying for technical services and 20.2, supportive services. In detail, 70.0% wanted to pay for a service stated as 'inject into a blood vessel', highest among the former services and 30.7%, a service referred to as 'teaching exercises needed to make the body of patients move', highest among the latter. When this was analyzed in terms of a relation between the need(the need for home nursing) and the demand(the intent of paying for home nursing), The rate of the need to the demand was found two or three times higher in technical nursing(0.82) than in supportive nursing(0.35). In aspects of tech ical nursing, muscle injection(1.26, the 1st rank) was highest in the rate while among aspects of supportive nursing, a service referred to as 'teach exercises needed for making patients move their bodies normally'(0.58, the 1st rank). 5) factors I(satisfaction with hospital services), II(recognition of disease state), III(economy) and IV(period of disease) occupied for 34.4, 13.8, 11.9 and 9.2 percents, respectively among factors related to the intent by the subjects of using home nursing, totaled 59.3%. In conclusion, most of chronic disease patients have the intent of using hospital-based home nursing and satisfaction with hospital services is a factor affecting the intent most. Thus a post-management system is needed to continue providing health management to those patients after they leave the hospital. Further, supportive services should be provided in order that those who are satisfied with hospital services return to their community and live their in dependent lives. Based on these results, the researcher would make the following recommendation. 1) Because home nursing becomes more and more needed due to a sharp increase in chronic disease patients and elderly people, related rules and regulations should be made and implemented. 2) Hospital nurses specializing in home nursing should be cultivated.

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Considerable Aspects for Technical and Vocational Training in Forestry (임업기술(林業技術) 및 직업훈련(職業訓練)에 고려(考慮)되어야 할 사항(事項))

  • Ma, Sang Kyu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.51 no.1
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    • pp.56-65
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    • 1981
  • The training of forest ranger level and forest worker level to push the sound forest management and to increase the employment effects in forestry will be done without delay as soon as possible. So several opinions to be considered are here discussed. 1. The ranger level will be at first completely trained with the technics developed and modernized, to process really the sound forest management based on the concept of ecological and economical technic. 2. The organization of vocational training and it's systematical training method will be newly adopted to increase the labour efficiency in forestry. The case of fulltime worker level should be more intensively trained and part-time worker or forest famer level should be trained by the forest ranger and skilled worker with visiting circularly their working place. And the daily employed workers and village people for working should be done by the skilled workers. 3. The training subjects for them at the beginning step will be exploited by the instructors and concerned experts with studying their current conditions. Their practical training is more reasonable to do in the practically managing forest and to carry out under the responsible of leader of this forest. 4. The instructors included rangers of training forest will get specially certain intensive training through the aids of outside experts or through the group instruction with them. 5. The training fields and their reasons to be learned by them are discussed in this paper from the basic knowledge to the skill technics. 6. In oder to systematize and mordernize more rapidly our forest technics that need for training them and also applying directly in the forest management, a total effort of certain type by scientists and technicians scattered individually all over the country is now earnestly demanded to synthesize their knowledge, technic and experience. So to do like this, the establishment of certain organization through which can do their total efforts together will be considered and assisted by the concerned authority. 7. For better lieving of full-time workers, the whole-round year working amount have to be supplied though the work technic-and working plan development. And under the conditions that the timber harvesting work is still not so enough and it has a bad climatic season, the in-side working system and side - job aids will be developed for their sound lieving. 8. The organization of labour management will be soon introduced in the concerning administrativ authority to solve the forest labour problems and to increase the employing effects in forestry in future. 9. The supply programm of improved and trained tools and maschines for forest work is also considered to use by the trained persons. If not to do so, the training results will return to the original condition and will get nothing any more.

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An Analytical Study on Stem Growth of Chamaecyparis obtusa (편백(扁栢)의 수간성장(樹幹成長)에 관(關)한 해석적(解析的) 연구(硏究))

  • An, Jong Man;Lee, Kwang Nam
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.77 no.4
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    • pp.429-444
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    • 1988
  • Considering the recent trent toward the development of multiple-use of forest trees, investigations for comprehensive information on these young stands of Hinoki cypress are necessary for rational forest management. From this point of view, 83 sample trees were selected and cut down from 23-ear old stands of Hinoki cypress at Changsung-gun, Chonnam-do. Various stem growth factors of felled trees were measured and canonical correlaton analysis, principal component analysis and factor analysis were applied to investigate the stem growth characteristics, relationships among stem growth factors, and to get potential information and comprehensive information. The results are as follows ; Canonical correlation coefficient between stem volume and quality growth factor was 0.9877. Coefficient of canonical variates showed that DBH among diameter growth factors and height among height growth factors had important effects on stem volume. From the analysis of relationship between stem-volume and canonical variates, which were linearly combined DBH with height as one set, DBH had greater influence on volume growth than height. The 1st-2nd principal components here adopted to fit the effective value of 85% from the pincipal component analysis for 12 stem growth factors. The result showed that the 1st-2nd principal component had cumulative contribution rate of 88.10%. The 1st and the 2nd principal components were interpreted as "size factor" and "shape factor", respectively. From summed proportion of the efficient principal component fur each variate, information of variates except crown diameter, clear length and form height explained more than 87%. Two common factors were set by the eigen value obtained from SMC (squared multiple correlation) of diagonal elements of canonical matrix. There were 2 latent factors, $f_1$ and $f_2$. The former way interpreted as nature of diameter growth system. In inherent phenomenon of 12 growth factor, communalities except clear length and crown diameter had great explanatory poorer of 78.62-98.30%. Eighty three sample trees could he classified into 5 stem types as follows ; medium type within a radius of ${\pm}1$ standard deviation of factor scores, uniformity type in diameter and height growth in the 1st quadrant, slim type in the 2nd quadrant, dwarfish type in the 3rd quadrant, and fall-holed type in the 4 th quadrant.

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Small Animal PET Imaging with [$^{124}I$]FIAU for Herpes Simplex Virus Type 1 Thymidine Kinase Gene Expression in a Hepatoma Model (간암 동물 모델에서 2'-fluoro-2'-deoxy-1-${\beta}$-D-arabinofuranosyl-5-[$^{124}I$iodo-uracil ($[^{124}I]FIAU$) 소동물 PET 영상 연구)

  • Chae, Min-Jeong;Lee, Tae-Sup;Kim, June-Youp;Woo, Gwang-Sun;Jumg, Wee-Sup;Chun, Kwon-Soo;Kim, Jae-Hong;Lee, Ji-Sup;Ryu, Jin-Sook;Cheon, Gi-Jeong;Choi, Chang-Woon;Lim, Sang-Moo
    • Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.235-245
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: The HSV1-tk gene has been extensively studied as a type of reporter gene. In hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), only a small proportion of patients are eligible for surgical resection and there is limitation in palliative options. Therefore, there is a need for the development of new treatment modalities and gene therapy is a leading candidate. In the present study, we investigated the usefulness of substrate, 2'-fluoro-2'-deoxy-1-${\beta}$-D-arabino-furanosyi-5-[$^{124/125}I$]iodo- uracil ([$I^{124/125}I$]FIAU) as a non-invasive imaging agent for HSV1-tk gene therapy in hepatoma model using small animal PET. Material and Methods: With the Morris hepatoma MCA cell line and MCA-tk cell line which was transduced with the HSV1-tk gene, in vitro uptake and correlation study between [$^{125}I$]FIAU uptake according to increasing numeric count of percentage of MCA-tk cell were performed. The biodistribution data and small animal PET images with [$^{124}I$]FIAU were obtained with Balb/c-nude mice bearing both MCA and MCA-tk tumors. Results:, Specific accumulation of [[$^{125}I$]FIAU was observed in MCA-tk cells but uptake was low in MCA cells. Uptake in MCA-tk cells was 15 times higher than that of MCA cells at 480 min. [$^{125}I$]FIAU uptake was linearly correlated (R2 =0.964, p =0.01) with increasing percentage of MCA-tk numeric cell count. Biodistribution results showed that [$^{125}I$]FIAU was mainly excreted via the renal system in the early phase. Ratios of MCA-tk tumor to blood acting were 10, 41, and 641 at 1 h, 4 h, and 24 h post-injection, respectively. The maximum ratio of MCA-tk to MCA tumor was 192.7 at 24 h. Ratios of MCA-tk tumor to liver were 13.8, 66.8, and 588.3 at 1 h, 4 h, and 24 h, respectively. On small animal PET, [$^{124}I$]FIAU accumulated in substantial higher levels in MCA-tk tumor and liver than MCA tumor. Conclusion: FIAU shows selective accumulation to HSV1-tk expressing hepatoma cell tumors with minimal uptake in normal liver. Therefore, radiolabelled FIAU is expected to be a useful substrate for non-invasive imaging of HSV1-tk gene therapy and therapeutic response monitoring of HCC.

Study on Spring Cocoon Crops with the Leaf Produced in the Mulberry Field close to the Totacco Field (개량 Mulching 담배밭 부근뽕잎이 춘잠작에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • 이상풍;김정배;김계명;박광준
    • Journal of Sericultural and Entomological Science
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.67-75
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    • 1974
  • The studies are to know how much cocoon crops is damaged by the stained leaf with nicotine produced from the tobacco field cultivated in mulching system in spring season and by residual nicotine in autumn season. Furthermore, the new knowledges are to make both industries keep up with their development. In spring season mulberry Held is located higher on the West-North of tobacco held below 20 degrees of slope and with 36 per cent of East-South wind and 18 per cent of South wind blowing from tobacco fold to the mulberry fold. In addition, silkworm larvae are fed with the mulberry leaf produced in the different plots placing by the different distances, l0m, 25m, 50m, 80m, and loom far from the tobacco Held as a control and it is also considered that narcotic larvae including the dead larvae are not observed. On the other hand, it is noted that better leaf quality and abundant growth of mulberry tree is produced from the mulberry fold closer to the tobacco field and with a low slope. 1) Maximum weight of larval body at the 5th stage is damaged by the stained leaf with the nicotine up to 25m far from the tobacco held. 2) The larvae fed with the mulberry leaf in mulberry Held up to 25m far from the tobacco fold produce small number of the fresh cocoons per 1 liter. 3) Low single cocoon weight and low cocoon shell weight are produced by the poison damaged larvae fed with the mulberry. leaf up to 25m far from the tobacco field and weight of cocoon shell is damaged higher than the single cocoon weight. It is resulted in low percentage of cocoon shell. 4) Cocoon yield including the double cocoon from 10,000 larvae is decreased by the larvae fed with the stained leaf in the mulberry fold up to 25m far from the tobacco fold and 19 per cent of cocoon yield is decreased with 2.4kg of cocoon yield in l0m plot and with 2.5kg of cocoon yield in 25m plot at the first season and at the 2nd season with 1.8kg o( cocoon yield in l0m plot and with 11.5kg of cocoon yield in 25m plot, 11 per cent and 9 per cent of cocoon yield including double cocoon from 10,000 larvae is decreased, as compared with the control, respectively. With these results, it is observed that nicotine damage is occurred to the silkworm larvae if the larvae are fed with the leaf in the mulberry Held within 25m-50m far from the tobacco field.

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A Study of Factors Associated with Software Developers Job Turnover (데이터마이닝을 활용한 소프트웨어 개발인력의 업무 지속수행의도 결정요인 분석)

  • Jeon, In-Ho;Park, Sun W.;Park, Yoon-Joo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.191-204
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    • 2015
  • According to the '2013 Performance Assessment Report on the Financial Program' from the National Assembly Budget Office, the unfilled recruitment ratio of Software(SW) Developers in South Korea was 25% in the 2012 fiscal year. Moreover, the unfilled recruitment ratio of highly-qualified SW developers reaches almost 80%. This phenomenon is intensified in small and medium enterprises consisting of less than 300 employees. Young job-seekers in South Korea are increasingly avoiding becoming a SW developer and even the current SW developers want to change careers, which hinders the national development of IT industries. The Korean government has recently realized the problem and implemented policies to foster young SW developers. Due to this effort, it has become easier to find young SW developers at the beginning-level. However, it is still hard to recruit highly-qualified SW developers for many IT companies. This is because in order to become a SW developing expert, having a long term experiences are important. Thus, improving job continuity intentions of current SW developers is more important than fostering new SW developers. Therefore, this study surveyed the job continuity intentions of SW developers and analyzed the factors associated with them. As a method, we carried out a survey from September 2014 to October 2014, which was targeted on 130 SW developers who were working in IT industries in South Korea. We gathered the demographic information and characteristics of the respondents, work environments of a SW industry, and social positions for SW developers. Afterward, a regression analysis and a decision tree method were performed to analyze the data. These two methods are widely used data mining techniques, which have explanation ability and are mutually complementary. We first performed a linear regression method to find the important factors assaociated with a job continuity intension of SW developers. The result showed that an 'expected age' to work as a SW developer were the most significant factor associated with the job continuity intention. We supposed that the major cause of this phenomenon is the structural problem of IT industries in South Korea, which requires SW developers to change the work field from developing area to management as they are promoted. Also, a 'motivation' to become a SW developer and a 'personality (introverted tendency)' of a SW developer are highly importantly factors associated with the job continuity intention. Next, the decision tree method was performed to extract the characteristics of highly motivated developers and the low motivated ones. We used well-known C4.5 algorithm for decision tree analysis. The results showed that 'motivation', 'personality', and 'expected age' were also important factors influencing the job continuity intentions, which was similar to the results of the regression analysis. In addition to that, the 'ability to learn' new technology was a crucial factor for the decision rules of job continuity. In other words, a person with high ability to learn new technology tends to work as a SW developer for a longer period of time. The decision rule also showed that a 'social position' of SW developers and a 'prospect' of SW industry were minor factors influencing job continuity intensions. On the other hand, 'type of an employment (regular position/ non-regular position)' and 'type of company (ordering company/ service providing company)' did not affect the job continuity intension in both methods. In this research, we demonstrated the job continuity intentions of SW developers, who were actually working at IT companies in South Korea, and we analyzed the factors associated with them. These results can be used for human resource management in many IT companies when recruiting or fostering highly-qualified SW experts. It can also help to build SW developer fostering policy and to solve the problem of unfilled recruitment of SW Developers in South Korea.

Development of Predictive Models for Rights Issues Using Financial Analysis Indices and Decision Tree Technique (경영분석지표와 의사결정나무기법을 이용한 유상증자 예측모형 개발)

  • Kim, Myeong-Kyun;Cho, Yoonho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.59-77
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    • 2012
  • This study focuses on predicting which firms will increase capital by issuing new stocks in the near future. Many stakeholders, including banks, credit rating agencies and investors, performs a variety of analyses for firms' growth, profitability, stability, activity, productivity, etc., and regularly report the firms' financial analysis indices. In the paper, we develop predictive models for rights issues using these financial analysis indices and data mining techniques. This study approaches to building the predictive models from the perspective of two different analyses. The first is the analysis period. We divide the analysis period into before and after the IMF financial crisis, and examine whether there is the difference between the two periods. The second is the prediction time. In order to predict when firms increase capital by issuing new stocks, the prediction time is categorized as one year, two years and three years later. Therefore Total six prediction models are developed and analyzed. In this paper, we employ the decision tree technique to build the prediction models for rights issues. The decision tree is the most widely used prediction method which builds decision trees to label or categorize cases into a set of known classes. In contrast to neural networks, logistic regression and SVM, decision tree techniques are well suited for high-dimensional applications and have strong explanation capabilities. There are well-known decision tree induction algorithms such as CHAID, CART, QUEST, C5.0, etc. Among them, we use C5.0 algorithm which is the most recently developed algorithm and yields performance better than other algorithms. We obtained data for the rights issue and financial analysis from TS2000 of Korea Listed Companies Association. A record of financial analysis data is consisted of 89 variables which include 9 growth indices, 30 profitability indices, 23 stability indices, 6 activity indices and 8 productivity indices. For the model building and test, we used 10,925 financial analysis data of total 658 listed firms. PASW Modeler 13 was used to build C5.0 decision trees for the six prediction models. Total 84 variables among financial analysis data are selected as the input variables of each model, and the rights issue status (issued or not issued) is defined as the output variable. To develop prediction models using C5.0 node (Node Options: Output type = Rule set, Use boosting = false, Cross-validate = false, Mode = Simple, Favor = Generality), we used 60% of data for model building and 40% of data for model test. The results of experimental analysis show that the prediction accuracies of data after the IMF financial crisis (59.04% to 60.43%) are about 10 percent higher than ones before IMF financial crisis (68.78% to 71.41%). These results indicate that since the IMF financial crisis, the reliability of financial analysis indices has increased and the firm intention of rights issue has been more obvious. The experiment results also show that the stability-related indices have a major impact on conducting rights issue in the case of short-term prediction. On the other hand, the long-term prediction of conducting rights issue is affected by financial analysis indices on profitability, stability, activity and productivity. All the prediction models include the industry code as one of significant variables. This means that companies in different types of industries show their different types of patterns for rights issue. We conclude that it is desirable for stakeholders to take into account stability-related indices and more various financial analysis indices for short-term prediction and long-term prediction, respectively. The current study has several limitations. First, we need to compare the differences in accuracy by using different data mining techniques such as neural networks, logistic regression and SVM. Second, we are required to develop and to evaluate new prediction models including variables which research in the theory of capital structure has mentioned about the relevance to rights issue.