• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.40 no.1
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• pp.1-30
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• 2018

Ongoing demographic changes have brought about a substantial shift in the size and age composition of the population, which are having a significant impact on the global economy. Despite potentially grave consequences, demographic changes usually do not take center stage in many macroeconomic policy discussions or debates. This paper illustrates how demographic variables move over time and analyzes how they influence macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, inflation, savings and investment, and fiscal balances, from an empirical perspective. Based on empirical findings-particularly regarding inflation-we discuss their implications on macroeconomic policies, including monetary policy. We also highlight the need to consider the interactions between population dynamics and macroeconomic variables in macroeconomic policy decisions.

• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.147-182
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• 2010

The purpose of this study is to examine the population changes in the nine Southeast Asian countries, including Cambodia, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Philippine, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Vietnam, and Thailand. According to the demographic transition theory which described the transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates, the demographic changes in less developed countries, including the Southeast Asian countries, follow the general pattern of the population changes that the Western countries had experienced. However, this theory does not consider the fact that the demographic behaviors such as fertility and mortality tend to be ethnocentric (or particular). Therefore, I examine in this paper both the generality and particularity of the population changes in the Southeast Asia . The analytic results are consistent with my assumptions. Every country in the Southeast Asia will soon reach the third phrase of the demographic transition and meet population ageing process. However, the timings arriving at the third phrase can differ. Singapore which is the most developed country had firstly passed through the demographic transition and the highest level of population ageing. Cambodia and Lao People's Democratic Republic, the least developed countries, will lastly arrive at the third phrase and the ageing society. In addition, among the three countries which had experienced war or civil war, only Cambodia had experienced babyboom.

• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.71-102
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• 2020

This study analyzes the effect of demographic changes on economic growth. We use the supply-side output identity to forecast the growth potential of the Korean economy. According to the results, even based on optimistic assumptions and prospects, the economic growth rate is likely to fall drastically starting in 2020. Of course, to maintain growth potential, efforts to increase productivity are necessary. However, given the historical experience of developed countries, it is not clear whether the huge trend of demographic change can be offset by efforts to increase productivity. In the so-called '30-50 club' countries, both labor productivity and growth rate tend to fall after reaching the per capita income of $30,000. The degree of decline in the growth rate is closely related to changes in the working age population and the prime-age workforce. The results are similar when tracking the path of changes in total factor productivities of the economy. When a certain level of income is reached, the increase in total factor productivity also tends to slow down. The ripple effects of rapid changes in demographics will indeed be extensive. The negative impact is likely to be concentrated at a time when the working age population, the prime-age workforce, and the total population shrink simultaneously. Above all, it is necessary to use the government's fiscal space to block the possibility of a rapid fall in the growth rate. In addition, it is important to continuously implement various reform tasks that should be promoted, such as improving the education system and strengthening the social safety net.

• Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.103-115
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• 1989

This study has been a study on changes seen in rural kitchens and factors affecting the modernization of agrarian kitchen space. The major findings were as follows: 1) The physical changes in kitchen design were carried out rapidly after 1977. This period coincided directly with the period in which kitchen improvement projects were fostered by the Sae Ma-Eul UNDONG 2) The study showed the macro factors contributing to changes in kitchen space to be government policy and industrialization. The study showed the micro factors influening kitchen space changes to be classified along socio-demographic lines and family lifestyle. 3) The factors affecting the degree of satisfaction with kitchens have been divided into socio-demographic and lifestyle characteristics. The level of education achieved by the husband was the most significant among socio-demographic characteristics. Most important among lifestyle characteristics were the cooking fuel used during the slack farm season, eating habits, heating fuel and eating space respectively. The results of this study have some implications in terms of government housing policy. Policymakers should be aware of suitable kitchen spaces to rural households in order to meet their housing needs and expectations.

• Journal of Korean Public Health Nursing
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.5-18
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• 2017

Purpose: This study was conducted to suggest a method for financial projection of health insurance expenditures that reflects future changes in demographic structure. Methods: Using data associated with the number of patients and health insurance cost per patient, generalized linear models (GLM) were fitted with demographic explanatory variables. Models were constructed separately for individual medical departments, types of medical service, and types of public health insurance. Goodness-of-fit of most of the applied GLM models was quite satisfactory. By combining estimates of frequency and severity from the constructed models and results of the population projection, total annual health insurance expenditures were projected through year 2060. Results: Expenditures for medical departments associated with diseases that are more frequent in elderly peoples are expected to increase steeply, leading to considerable increases in overall health insurance expenditures. The suggested method can contribute to improvement of the accuracy of financial projection. Conclusion: The overall demands for medical service, medical personnel, and relevant facilities in the future are expected to increase as the proportion of elderly people increases. Application of a more reasonable estimation method reflecting changes in demographic structure will help develop health policies relevant to above mentioned resources.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.63-70
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• 2022

This study is to investigate that population change as a result of the decline in population has a correlation with a decrease in crime, with the change in the demographic composition by comparing with two models: model with growth in population and one with the decline in population. We collected demographic data for all cities in Korea from the 2010 Census to 2020 offered by the Korean Statistical Information Service, with crime data comprising serious reported crime events from the Korean Nation Police Agency through requesting data related to the total number of crimes at the same as the period of demographic data. This study can identify the impacts of demographic changes as a result of population change on crime change through a comparative analysis between areas with population growth and ones with population decline. We can confirm that there are differences in determinants of crime between areas with population increase and one with population decrease from the analysis of the impact of demographic change as a result of population change on crime change.

• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.288-296
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• 2015

In many very high density cities in Asia in which there is limited area to expand, growth is forced upward as well as outward. Densely packed detached houses and low-rise buildings are replaced by lower density high-rises, leaving open spaces between high-rise buildings. Through this process, areas that formerly did not have much green space gain valuable green spaces, and new ecological corridors and patches are created. In this study, the demographic and housing-type changes of Wonju City were delineated using land use maps, aerial images, census data, and other administrative data. Green area changes were calculated using land cover data derived from multi-year Landsat TM satellite imagery. The values were then compared against demographic and housing-type changes for each administrative unit. The overall results showed a decrease of forested area in the city and an increase of developed area. Urban sprawl was clearly visible in many of the suburban areas. However, as expected, we also detected areas in which greenness did not decrease when the population greatly increased. These areas were characterized by residential building complexes of ten or more stories. If an equal number of housing units had been built as detached houses, these areas would not have kept as much green space. Our research result showed that high-density and high-rise residential structures can offer an alternative means to protect or create urban green spaces in high-density urban environments.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.45 no.4
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• pp.23-56
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• 2023

To investigate the causes of Korea's growth slowdown over the past thirty years, we estimate the contributions of major developmental factors, including i) demographic factors (changes in population growth and workforce age due to the demographic transition), ii) quality-of-life-related choice factors (changes in working hours, education, and the female employment rate), iii) structural change, and iv) the effects of productivity catch-up. Our estimates show that these four groups of factors account for approximately 90 percent of the growth slowdown, with demographic factors contributing approximately 30 percent and the other three groups of factors each contributing about 20 percent. We also show that the same factors explain most of Korea's high growth in the 1980s. These results suggest that Korea's growth slowdown is basically a consequence of its successful economic development and that the high growth and subsequent slowdown can be regarded as a single process. In addition, given that the factors examined here exhibit similar patterns of change in the course of economic development of most countries, we think that our estimation results of the relationship between economic development and changes in economic growth trends could have more general implications that go beyond Korea's experience.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.95-102
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• 2023

This study aims to empirically verify the moderating effect of population drop on the relationship between demographic changes and crime decline in local cities facing population decline in Korea. The study employs changes in the population of young adults, men, elderly, foreign residents, and population movement as factors of demographic changes, including types of the city as a control variable in the research model. The rate of change in population drop is used as a moderator variable and the rate of change in crime decline as a dependent variable. Data are collected from 155 cities with declining populations from 2010 to 2022 through KOSIS, the National Statistics Portal, and information disclosure requests. Data collected are analyzed using moderated regression analysis. In the first and second stages of the analysis, they show that changes in the population of young adults, population movement, foreign people, population drop, and the type of city affect the change in crime. Moderated regression analysis shows that only the interaction terms among changes in the population of young adults, changes in population movement, and changes in the population of foreigners and the population drop affects change in crime significantly.

• Agribusiness and Information Management
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.1-5
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• 2013

Demographic transition drives changes in consumer demand for food products. This study examines how rising incomes and population trends affect spending on food purchased for home. The objective of this study is to characterize the relationships between selected socio-demographic factors and food selection among South Korean households. Panel data from Rural Development Administration (RDA) in South Korea in 2010 was used (n=971). Household food purchases were classified into one of the five food groups from Composition of Foods of RDA. Multiple regression analysis was used to analyze the effects of household size and income based on the expenditure share on each food group. All statistical analyses were performed using SAS/ PC version 9.3. Results show that household socio- demographic characteristics have a strong influence on food purchasing, with the purchase of vegetables and fruit, and processed food and pre-packaged being particularly sensitive.