• Title/Summary/Keyword: Demand estimation

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Effect of sequential earthquakes on evaluation of non-linear response of 3D RC MRFs

  • Oggu, Praveen;Gopikrishna, K.
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.279-293
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    • 2021
  • Most of the existing seismic codes for RC buildings consider only a scenario earthquake for analysis, often characterized by the response spectrum at the specified location. However, any real earthquake event often involves occurrences of multiple earthquakes within a few hours or days, possessing similar or even higher energy than the first earthquake. This critically impairs the rehabilitation measures thereby resulting in the accumulation of structural damages for subsequent earthquakes after the first earthquake. Also, the existing seismic provisions account for the non-linear response of an RC building frame implicitly by specifying a constant response modification factor (R) in a linear elastic design. However, the 'R' specified does not address the changes in structural configurations of RC moment-resisting frames (RC MRFs) viz., building height, number of bays present, bay width, irregularities arising out of mass and stiffness changes, etc. resulting in changed dynamic characteristics of the structural system. Hence, there is an imperative need to assess the seismic performance under sequential earthquake ground motions, considering the adequacy of code-specified 'R' in the representation of dynamic characteristics of RC buildings. Therefore, the present research is focused on the evaluation of the non-linear response of medium-rise 3D RC MRFs with and without vertical irregularities under bi-directional sequential earthquake ground motions using non-linear dynamic analysis. It is evident from the results that collapse probability increases, and 'R' reduces significantly for various RC MRFs subjected to sequential earthquakes, pronouncing the vulnerability and inadequacy of estimation of design base shear by code-specified 'R' under sequential earthquakes.

What Exacerbates the Probability of Business Closure in the Private Sector During the COVID-19 Pandemic? Evidence from World Bank Enterprise Survey Data

  • PHAM, Thi Bich Duyen;NGUYEN, Hoang Phong
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.69-79
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of the study is to look into the likelihood of private sector enterprises going bankrupt due to COVID-19 pandemic-related issues. The data for this study was taken from the World Bank's Enterprise Survey, which was intended to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the business sector. This study uses the Ordinal Logit Method to analyze the model with dependent variables having ordinal values. The determinants reflect business performance, innovation, business relationships, and government support. According to the estimation results, a lower probability of business closures, illiquidity, and payment delays are found in businesses that maintain sales growth, operating hours, temporary workers, product portfolio, consumer demand, and input supply. Meanwhile, the increase in online business activities and receiving support from financial institutions and the government do not help businesses reduce the risk. Moreover, higher survival is found in manufacturing and developing countries. This implies the fragility of businesses in the retail and service sectors, especially for mega-enterprises in developed countries. In addition, the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on businesses in Europe and West Asia is less severe than in other regions. The results imply policies to support the private sector during the pandemic, such as increasing labor market flexibility or rapidly implementing supportive policies.

Assessment of collapse safety margin for DDBD and FBD-designed RC frame buildings

  • Alimohammadi, Dariush;Abadi, Esmaeel Izadi Zaman
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.83 no.2
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    • pp.229-244
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    • 2022
  • This paper investigates the seismic performance of buildings designed using DDBD (Direct Displacement based Design) and FBD (Force based Design) approaches from the probabilistic viewpoint. It aims to estimate the collapse capacity of structures and assess the adequacy of seismic design codes. In this regard, (i) IDA (Incremental Dynamic Analysis) curves, (ii) interstory drift demand distribution curves, (iii) fragility curves, and (iv) the methodology provided by FEMA P-695 are applied to examine two groups of RC moment resistant frame buildings: 8-story structures with different plans, to study the effect of different span arrangements; and 3-, 7- and 12-story structures with a fixed plan, to study the dynamic behavior of the buildings. Structural modeling is performed in OpenSees software and validated using the results of an experimental model. It is concluded that increasing the building height would not significantly affect the response estimation of IDA and fragility curves of DDBD-designed structures, while the change in span arrangements is effective in estimating responses. In the investigation of the code adequacy, unlike the FBD approach, the DDBD can satisfy the performance criteria presented in FEMA P-695 and hence provide excellent performance.

Estimation of Representative Mechanical Property of Porous Electrode for Secondary Batteries with Homogenization Method (균질화 기법을 이용하여 기공이 있는 이차전지 극판의 대표 기계 물성 도출을 위한 연구)

  • Pyo, Changmin;Kim, Jaewoong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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    • v.21 no.9
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    • pp.85-91
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    • 2022
  • The demand for electric vehicles has increased because of environmental regulations. The lithium-ion battery, the most widely used type of battery in electric vehicles, is composed of a cathode, an anode, and an electrolyte. It is manufactured according to the pole plate, assembly, and formation processes. To improve battery performance and increase manufacturing efficiency, the manufacturing process must be optimized. To do so, simulation can be used to reduce wasted resources and time, and a finite-element method can be utilized. For high simulation quality, it is essential to reflect the material properties of the electrode by considering the pores. However, the material properties of electrodes are difficult to derive through measurement. In this study, the representative volume element method, which is a homogenization method, was applied to estimate the representative material properties of the electrode considering the pores. The representative volume element method assumes that the strain energy before and after the conversion into a representative volume is conserved. The method can be converted into one representative property, even when nonhomogeneous materials are mixed in a unit volume. In this study, the material properties of the electrode considering the pores were derived. The results should be helpful in optimizing the electrode manufacturing process and related element technologies.

Important measure analysis of uncertainty parameters in bridge probabilistic seismic demands

  • Song, Shuai;Wu, Yuan H.;Wang, Shuai;Lei, Hong G.
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.157-168
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    • 2022
  • A moment-independent importance measure analysis approach was introduced to quantify the effects of structural uncertainty parameters on probabilistic seismic demands of simply supported girder bridges. Based on the probability distributions of main uncertainty parameters in bridges, conditional and unconditional bridge samples were constructed with Monte-Carlo sampling and analyzed in the OpenSees platform with a series of real seismic ground motion records. Conditional and unconditional probability density functions were developed using kernel density estimation with the results of nonlinear time history analysis of the bridge samples. Moment-independent importance measures of these uncertainty parameters were derived by numerical integrations with the conditional and unconditional probability density functions, and the uncertainty parameters were ranked in descending order of their importance. Different from Tornado diagram approach, the impacts of uncertainty parameters on the whole probability distributions of bridge seismic demands and the interactions of uncertainty parameters were considered simultaneously in the importance measure analysis approach. Results show that the interaction of uncertainty parameters had significant impacts on the seismic demand of components, and in some cases, it changed the most significant parameters for piers, bearings and abutments.

Seismic demand estimation of electrical cabinet in nuclear power plant considering equipment-anchor-interaction

  • Cho, Sung Gook;Salman, Kashif
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.54 no.4
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    • pp.1382-1393
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    • 2022
  • This paper investigates the seismic behavior of an electrical cabinet considering the influence of equipment-anchor-interaction (EAI) that is generally not taken into consideration in a decoupled analysis. The hysteresis behavior of an anchor bolt in concrete was thereby considered to highlight this interaction effect. To this end, the experimental behavior of an anchor bolt under reversed cyclic loading was taken from the recently developed literature, and a numerical model for the anchor hysteresis was developed using the component approach. The hysteresis properties were then used to calibrate the multi-linear link element that is implemented as a boundary condition for the cabinet incorporating the EAI. To highlight this EAI further, the nonlinear time history analysis was performed for a cabinet considering the hysteresis behavior comparative to a fixed boundary condition. Additionally, the influence on the seismic fragility was evaluated for the operational and structural condition of the cabinet. The numerical analysis considering the anchor hysteresis manifests that the in-cabinet response spectra (ICRS) are significantly amplified with the corresponding reduction in the seismic capacity of 25% and 15% for an operational and structural safety condition under the selected protocols. Considering the fixed boundary condition over a realistic hysteresis behavior of the anchor bolt is more likely to overestimate the seismic capacity of the cabinet in a seismic qualification procedure.

A Study on the Operational Efficiency of UAM(Urban Aerial Mobility)s (도심항공모빌리티의 운용효율성에 관한 연구)

  • Jaedo Song
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.23-32
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    • 2022
  • Prototype UAMs are shown to us in the market. When the complete product is delivered to market, the efficiency of each UAMs can be compared by default. Before the complete product is shown to us, the comparative study on efficiency of UAMs is performed under the product cost estimation. The efficiency analysis result reveals that both of Lift & Cruise type and vectored thrust type show good efficiency at the initial stage of product. At the near terms stage, five years later from initial stage end, efficiency gets some change. Vectored thrust type of UAMs show best efficiency at the near term stage of product. Because UAMs will be used in urban area, Seoul is the place where the UAMs will be used first. The flying route from Seoul City Hall to Yongsan Park, National Assembly in Yeouido, and City Airport is no more than 10 km distance. For this short distance route, efficiency will make multi-rotor type UAM be prefered to other types. For long distance route or commuting route, life & cruise type and vectored thrust type of UAMs will be prefered on account of operational efficiency.

A MULTI-OBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION FOR CAPITAL STRUCTURE IN PRIVATELY-FINANCED INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS

  • S.M. Yun;S.H. Han;H. Kim
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2007.03a
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    • pp.509-519
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    • 2007
  • Private financing is playing an increasing role in public infrastructure construction projects worldwide. However, private investors/operators are exposed to the financial risk of low profitability due to the inaccurate estimation of facility demand, operation income, maintenance costs, etc. From the operator's perspective, a sound and thorough financial feasibility study is required to establish the appropriate capital structure of a project. Operators tend to reduce the equity amount to minimize the level of risk exposure, while creditors persist to raise it, in an attempt to secure a sufficient level of financial involvement from the operators. Therefore, it is important for creditors and operators to reach an agreement for a balanced capital structure that synthetically considers both profitability and repayment capacity. This paper presents an optimal capital structure model for successful private infrastructure investment. This model finds the optimized point where the profitability is balanced with the repayment capacity, with the use of the concept of utility function and multi-objective GA (Generic Algorithm)-based optimization. A case study is presented to show the validity of the model and its verification. The research conclusions provide a proper capital structure for privately-financed infrastructure projects through a proposed multi-objective model.

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Monthly Hanwoo supply and forecasting models

  • Hyungwoo, Lee;Seonu, Ji;Tongjoo, Suh
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.48 no.4
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    • pp.797-806
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    • 2021
  • As the number of scaled-up ranches increased and agile responses to market changes became possible, decision-making by Hanwoo cattle farms also began to affect short-term shipments. Considering the changing environment of the Hanwoo supply market and the response speed of producers, it is necessary quickly to grasp the forecast ahead of time and to respond accordingly in an effort to stabilize supply and demand in the Hanwoo market. In this study, short-term forecasting model centered on the supply of Hanwoo was established. The analysis conducted here indicates that the slaughter of Hanwoo males increases by 0.248 as the number of beef cattle raised over 29 months of age in the previous month increases by one, and 0.764 Hanwoo females were slaughtered under average conditions for every Hanwoo male slaughtered. With regard to time, the slaughtering of Hanwoo was higher in January and August, which are months known for holiday food preparation activities for the New Year and Chuseok in Korea, respectively. Simulations indicated that errors were within 10% in all simulations performed through the Hanwoo supply model. Accordingly, it is considered that the estimation results from the supply model devised in this study are reliable and that the model has good structural stability.

Nonstationary Surrogate Model for Reference Evapotranspiration Estimation Based on In-situ Temperature Data (온도인자를 활용한 비정상성 기준증발산량 대체모형 개발)

  • Kim, Ho-Jun;Nguyen, Thi Huong;Kang, Dongwon;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.96-96
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    • 2021
  • 수문기상인자 중 하나인 증발산량은 수자원 계획 및 관리 시 고려되며, 특히 물수지 모형 등의 입력자료로 활용된다. 우리나라를 포함한 각국 기상청 및 국제기구에서는 직접 관측이 아닌 FAO56 Penman-Monteith(PM)을 통해 증발산량을 산출하고 있다. FAO56 PM 방법은 복사(radiation), 대기온도(air temperature), 습도(humidity), 풍속(wind speed) 등의 기상인자로부터 기준증발산량(reference evapotransipiration)을 추정하며, 상대적으로 높은 정확성을 보여준다. 그러나 FAO56 PM 방법은 많은 기상인자를 요구하므로 미계측 유역을 포함한 일부지역에 대한 증발산량 자료 구축이 어려운 실정이다. 또한, 기준증발산량의 특성이 시간에 따라 변화하므로 비정상성(nonstationary)을 고려한 분석이 요구된다. 본 연구에서는 온도인자 기반의 대체모형(surrogate model)을 개발하여 기준증발산량의 비정상성을 고려하고자 한다. 한강유역에 위치한 관측소를 대상으로 모형을 개발하였으며, 시간에 따라 변동하는 기준증발산량의 특성을 고려하기 위해 Bayesian 추론기법을 통해 매개변수를 시간에 따라 추정하였다. 또한, 본 연구에서는 대체모형으로 산정된 증발산량을 활용해 가뭄지수인 EDDI(evaporative demand drought index)를 제시하였다. 가뭄 모니터링 및 조기 경보 안내를 위해 개발된 EDDI를 활용하여 기존 가뭄보다 빠르게 진행되는 초단기 가뭄(flash drought)를 평가하였다. 본 연구에서 개발된 모형은 미계측 지역에서도 적용이 가능하므로 수자원분야에서 활용성이 높을 것으로 사료된다.

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