• Title/Summary/Keyword: Demand estimation

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Estimation of Water Footprint for Livestock Products in Korea (한국의 축산물 물발자국 산정)

  • Lee, Sang-Hyun;Choi, Jin-Yong;Yoo, Seung-Hwan;Kim, Young Deuk;Shin, Ankook
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.57 no.2
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    • pp.85-92
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    • 2015
  • Since the consumption of the livestock products increased for the past 10 years in Korea, the water use for live animals has become more important in terms of water savings. Therefore, the index connecting water use and livestock products consumption should be required for sustainable water management, and water footprint concept could be suggested as the index. The aim of this study is to estimate the water footprint for livestock products; beef cattle, swine, and broiler chicken. The water footprint for livestock products is divided into direct and indirect water. The direct water includes the drinking and servicing water, and the indirect water includes the water for the cultivation of feed crops. The water footprint of beef cattle was calculated to $17,023.1m^3/ton$, and direct water was $91.2m^3/ton$, and indirect water was $16,931.9m^3/ton$. The water footprint of swine was calculated to $4,235.8m^3/ton$, and direct water was $129.7m^3/ton$, and indirect water was $4,106.0m^3/ton$. The water footprint of broiler chicken was calculated to $2,427.7m^3/ton$, and direct water was $7.6m^3/ton$, and indirect water was $2,420.1m^3/ton$. Also, we compared the water footprint to water demand of water vision 2020 which is the main report for national water management. The water vision 2020 reported only direct water for live animal, but the water footprint includes the direct and indirect water. Therefore, the water footprint could be applied to various fields relating water and food.

The Effects of Ownership, Regulation and Marked Structure on the Pricing: Evidence from the U.S. Electricity and Natural Gas Industries (소유구조, 규제 및 시장구조가 가격에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구: 미국의 전력산업과 천연가스산업을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Dae-Wook
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.751-774
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, we examine the institutional prices differences in the electricity and natural gas industries using unbalanced panel data from 1999 to 2001. The changing market structures following deregulation in both markets allow us to examine the institutional prices differences by ownership type, market structure and merger activities. Estimating the reduced form, after controlling both intrinsic characteristic (marginal costs) and external factors (demand), allows us to identify the extent to which specific factors are correlated with the price. Furthermore it allows us to identify systematic institutional price differences in both electricity and natural gas markets. Our estimation results suggest that the private firms in electricity markets are associated with higher prices than public firms after controlling for demand and cost. We further find that dual-product firms in the natural gas industry and the electricity industry are associated with lower rates than single product firms. These results provide a weak evidence of economies of scope in the dual-product firms. Our results finally suggest that merger activities in natural gas markets are associated with higher rates.

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A Study on the Characteristics of Urban Truck Movement for the Truck based Urban Freight Demand Model (화물자동차기반 대도시 화물수요모형 구축을 위한 화물자동차 통행특성 분석)

  • Hahn, Jin-Seok;Park, Min-Choul;Sung, Hong-Mo;Kim, Hyung-Bum
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.107-118
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of the study is to analyze the travel characteristics of freight trucks in metropolitan areas, focusing on activity generation, destination choice, and trip chaining behaviors. The results showed that the number of service companies at departure areas has a primary influence on the activity generation pattern and destination choice behavior of trucks in metropolitan areas. The number of trips within a trip chain is largest, in case where the prevailing industry in destination areas is wholesale or retail and the shipment item is food or beverage. These results imply that for the reasonable estimation of truck travel demand both the trip chaining behaviors and the industrial compositions in departure and destination areas should be separately considered for each type of commodity.

A study on demand forecasting for Jeju-bound tourists by travel purpose using seasonal ARIMA-Intervention model (계절형 ARIMA-Intervention 모형을 이용한 여행목적 별 제주 관광객 수 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Junmo
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.725-732
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    • 2016
  • This study analyzes the number of Jeju-bound tourists according to travellers' purposes. We classify the travellers' purposes into three categories: "Rest and Sightseeing", "Leisure and Sport", and "Conference and Business". To see an impact of MERS outbreak occurred in May 2015 on the number of tourists, we fit seasonal ARIMA-Intervention model to the monthly arrivals data from January 2005 to March 2016. The estimation results show that the number of tourists for "Leisure and Sport" and "Conference and Business" were significantly affected by MERS outbreak whereas arrivals for "Rest and Sightseeing" were little influenced. Using the fitted models, we predict the number of Jeju-bound tourists.

An Analysis of the Effects of Water Pollution on Life Satisfaction in Korea (한국의 수질오염이 생활만족도에 미치는 영향에 대한 분석)

  • Kim, Soo Jung;Kang, Sung Jin
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.124-140
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    • 2016
  • Using the Korea Labor Institute Panel Study(KLIPS), this study investigates the impacts of water pollution on life satisfaction in Korea. Panel random-effects ordered probit model is used to consider the ordered property of life satisfaction data and heterogeneity of panel data. The proxy variables to reflect the degree of water pollution are biochemical oxygen demand(BOD) and total phosphorus(TP). In addition to the environmental variables above, other determinants used in various studies on life satisfaction such as economic, social, and demographic characteristics are included. Estimation results show that water pollution is negative and significant for life satisfaction. Other indicators such as income, age, house ownership, gender, education are positively related while urban residence and own business are shown to be negatively related.

Forecasting the Korea's Port Container Volumes With SARIMA Model (SARIMA 모형을 이용한 우리나라 항만 컨테이너 물동량 예측)

  • Min, Kyung-Chang;Ha, Hun-Koo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.600-614
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    • 2014
  • This paper develops a model to forecast container volumes of all Korean seaports using a Seasonal ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) technique with the quarterly data from the year of 1994 to 2010. In order to verify forecasting accuracy of the SARIMA model, this paper compares the predicted volumes resulted from the SARIMA model with the actual volumes. Also, the forecasted volumes of the SARIMA model is compared to those of an ARIMA model to demonstrate the superiority as a forecasting model. The results showed the SARIMA Model has a high level of forecasting accuracy and is superior to the ARIMA model in terms of estimation accuracy. Most of the previous research regarding the container-volume forecasting of seaports have been focussed on long-term forecasting with mainly monthly and yearly volume data. Therefore, this paper suggests a new methodology that forecasts shot-term demand with quarterly container volumes and demonstrates the superiority of the SARIMA model as a forecasting methodology.

A Study on Dynamic Change of Transportation Demand Using Seasonal ARIMA Model (계절성을 감안한 ARIMA 모형을 이용한 교통수요 동태적 변화 연구)

  • Lee, Jae-Min;Gwon, Yong-Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.139-155
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    • 2011
  • This study is to estimate the dynamic change of the regional railway passenger traffic and, based on the estimated, to forecast the future regional railway passenger traffic by using the Seasonal ARIMA model. The existing studies using ARIMA failed to consider seasonality nor the monthly or the quarterly data. It was attempted in this study to use the monthly regional railway passenger traffic data to propose a model that estimates dynamic change of demand. The authors employed the Seasonal ARIMA model previously developed and used (1) the numbers of monthly passenger data and (2) the monthly passenger-km data. The test results showed that the numbers of passengers in 2015 and 2020 would increase by 36% and 71%, respectively, compared to those in 2008. The numbers of passenger-kms in 2015 and 2020 would increase by 25% and 78%, respectively, compared to those in 2008.

Fragility Contour Method for the Seismic Performance Assessment of Generic Structures (지진 취약성 등고선을 이용한 내진성능 평가 방법)

  • Jeong, Seong-Hoon;Lee, Ki-Hak;Lee, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.65-72
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    • 2011
  • Extensive computer simulations to account for the randomness in the process of seismic demand estimation have been a serious obstacle to the adoption of probabilistic performance assessments for the decision of applying seismic intervention schemes. In this study, a method for rapid fragility assessments based on a response database and the fragility contour method are presented. By the comparison of response contours in different formats, it is shown that representing maximum responses in ductility demand is better for the investigation of the effect of structural parameter changes on seismic demands than representations in absolute values. The presented fragility contour enables designers to practically investigate the probabilistic performance level of every possible retrofit option in a convenient manner using visualized data sets. This example demonstrates the extreme efficiency of the proposed approach in performing fragility assessments and successful application to the seismic retrofit strategies based on limit state probabilities.

Developing Trip Generation Models Considering Land Use Characteristics (토지이용 특성을 반영한 통행발생모형 추정 연구)

  • Song, Jae-In;Na, Seung-Won;Choo, Sang-Ho
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.126-139
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    • 2011
  • In the traditional four-step travel demand models, each step is sequentially conducted following the model estimation at the previous step. The accuracy of the following model is partly dependent on whether the model at the former stage was properly established or not. Therefore, trip generation, which is the first step in this conventional model, has great effects on the modeling process and forecasting results. Linear regression models for trip generation of Seoul Metropolitan Area might increase the forcasting errors, since a variety of land-use characteristics are not considered. Hence, in this study, zonal factors such as socioeconomic and land use variables are included to improve the elaboration of trip generation. Comparing the %RMSE with the existing models, which contain bigger errors in the zones highly based on the secondary and tertiary industries than residence-based, the trip generation models including those variables seem more appropriate overall.

Valuing the Economic Benefits from the Residential Water Supply In Seoul (서울시 가정용수 공급의 경제적 편익 추정)

  • Yoo, Seung-Hoon;Park, Kwang-Sup
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.12 s.173
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    • pp.1057-1066
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    • 2006
  • Water is an indispensable input to human's existence and industrial production. A water supply project would demand considerable costs, but produce economic benefits, which are importantly utilized in the project evaluation. In this situation, this study attempts to value the economic benefits from the residential water supply in Seoul. In particular, yearly consumer surplus and economic value of water supply for eleven water authority agencies in Seoul are measured during the period 2001-2004. Information on price elasticity required in calculating consumer surplus is obtained from direct estimation of the residential water demand function, and the consumer surplus is assessed by using a recently developed formula. Price elasticities used here are -0.810 and -1.011, and the estimated consumer surplus and economic value amount to 131.9 to 164.6 billion won and 398.6 to 431.3 billion won, respectively.