• Title/Summary/Keyword: Demand estimation

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An Estimation of the Pyiee Elasticities of Tobacco and Health Demand of Korean Urban Households using Macro and Micro Level Data (한국 도시가구의 담배소비와 보건의료지출: 가구 특성을 감안한 수요체계적 분석에 의한 가격탄력성 추정시도)

  • 김원년;이충열
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.257-289
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    • 2002
  • In this study we analyse how the tobacco prices have an effect on the national health. The level of tobacco price will fluctuate its consumers demand and eventually affect the national health status. We estimate tobacco consumption function as well as households'demand system in which tobacco and health expenditure functions are included. Demand elasticities are estimated and evaluated in order to find future policies to improve the national health by controlling the national tobacco consumption There are two econometric approaches app1ied in this study. The lent tobacco demand analysis method is mm tobacco consumption function model. Using national indices of tobacco price, tobacco consumption and other related variables, tobacco consumption function is estimated. The other is micro demand system analysis by using Korean urban households expenditure data during the period of 1991 to 1999. The own price elasticity which is estimated from national tobacco demand per capita is -0.19 for all people and -0.176 for the adults over 18, which means 100% price increase will cause decease of tobacco demand at 19% and 17.6% per each The cross vice elasticity which is estimated between tobacco and health expenditure of urban households demand system is -0.2328, which implies 100% of tobacco price increase will decrease 23.28% of health expenditure. The low price elasticities imply that tobacco price increase will increase total tobacco sales volume. 100% of tobacco price increase will bring about 79% increase of total tobacco sales volume according to our scenario. Korea's tobacco demand is negatively responsive to fluctuations in its price. The health expenditure is also negatively relatedto the tobacco price fluctuation. These empirical outputs could be utilized as the basis of government's tax policy to control national tobacco consumption in the future.

Criterion Thesis for Estimation of Power Demand in New Housing Development (신규 주택단지 전력수요 산정 기준 정립)

  • 최상봉;남기영;정성환;김대경
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.241-252
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    • 2003
  • As more and more residential complexes will be developed in the future, this paper tries to establish the definitions and standards for the estimation of power demands in these areas and propose standards for the estimation of power demands for power companies and construction companies to settle the debates surrounding this issue. Through a survey and analysis of existing areas, new standards that will enable more accurate estimation of power demands in new cities complexes to be developed in the future are established by calculating the average load density, load factor, utilization factor by area, use and building size after dividing the facilities into building type. Also, for general hospitals, sports facilities and government buildings of the non residential building category, metropolitan areas, where these facilities are concentrated, are surveyed and analyzed.

Estimation of irrigation return flow from paddy fields based on the reservoir storage rate

  • An, Hyunuk;Kang, Hansol;Nam, Wonho;Lee, Kwangya
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.19-28
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    • 2020
  • This study proposed a simple estimation method for irrigation return flow from paddy fields using the water balance model. The merit of this method is applicability to other paddy fields irrigated from agricultural reservoirs due to the simplicity compared with the previous monitoring based estimation method. It was assumed that the unused amount of irrigation water was the return flow which included the quick and delayed return flows. The amount of irrigation supply from a reservoir was estimated from the reservoir water balance with the storage rate and runoff model. It was also assumed that the infiltration was the main source of the delayed return flow and that the other delayed return flow was neglected. In this study, the amount of reservoir inflow and water demand from paddy field are calculated on a daily basis, and irrigation supply was calculated on 10-day basis, taking into account the uncertainty of the model and the reliability of the data. The regression rate was calculated on a yearly basis, and yearly data was computed by accumulating daily and 10-day data, considering that the recirculating water circulation cycle was relatively long. The proposed method was applied to the paddy blocks of the Jamhong and Seosan agricultural reservoirs and the results were acceptable.

Assessment of Agricultural Environment Using Remote Sensing and GIS

  • Hong Suk Young
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Crop Science Conference
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    • 2005.08a
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    • pp.75-87
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    • 2005
  • Remote sensing(RS)- and geographic information system(GIS)-based information management to measure and assess agri-environment schemes, and to quantify and map environment indicators for nature and land use, climate change, air, water and energy balance, waste and material flow is in high demand because it is very helpful in assisting decision making activities of farmers, government, researchers, and consumers. The versatility and ability of RS and GIS containing huge soil database to assess agricultural environment spatially and temporally at various spatial scales were investigated. Spectral and microwave observations were carried out to characterize crop variables and soil properties. Multiple sources RS data from ground sensors, airborne sensors, and also satellite sensors were collected and analyzed to extract features and land cover/use for soils, crops, and vegetation for support precision agriculture, soil/land suitability, soil property estimation, crop growth estimation, runoff potential estimation, irrigated and the estimation of flooded areas in paddy rice fields. RS and GIS play essential roles in a management and monitoring information system. Biosphere-atmosphere interection should also be further studied to improve synergistic modeling for environment and sustainability in agri-environment schemes.

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Quality Estimation of Net Packaged Onions during Storage Periods using Machine Learning Techniques

  • Nandita Irsaulul, Nurhisna;Sang-Yeon, Kim;Seongmin, Park;Suk-Ju, Hong;Eungchan, Kim;Chang-Hyup, Lee;Sungjay, Kim;Jiwon, Ryu;Seungwoo, Roh;Daeyoung, Kim;Ghiseok, Kim
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF PACKAGING SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.237-244
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    • 2022
  • Onions are a significant crop in Korea, and cultivation is increasing every year along with high demand. Onions are planted in the fall and mainly harvested in June, the rainy season, therefore, physiological changes in onion bulbs during long-term storage might have happened. Onions are stored in cold room and at adequate relative humidity to avoid quality loss. In this study, bio-yield stress and weight loss were measured as the quality parameters of net packaged onions during 10 weeks of storage, and the storage environmental conditions are monitored using sensor networks systems. Quality estimation of net packaged onion during storage was performed using the storage environmental condition data through machine learning approaches. Among the suggested estimation models, support vector regression method showed the best accuracy for the quality estimation of net packaged onions.

Spatial Demand Estimation for the Knowledge-Based Industries in the Capital Region of Korea (지식기반산업의 입지수요추정)

  • Kab Sung Kim;Sung Jae Choo;Kee Bom Nahm
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.363-374
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    • 2003
  • There is very high preference for the firms to locate in the Capital region, the City of Seoul and its surrounding areas, which inevitably meets diverse types of regulations to prevent over-concentration in Korea. In order to suggest an urgent need to reform these regulations, the demand for knowledge-based industries is estimated. A legit model is employed to estimate the demand of relocation of the current firms based on a survey conducted in 2001. A logistic curve is used to forecast the demand of new start-ups in Korea. The lands for industrial use only are estimated as many as 2.1 million~3.9 million pyung(1 pyung=3.3$m^2$) in nation-wide. Considering affiliate facilities and infrastructures, 3.1 million~5.9 million of industrial area should be developed in Korea for next five years. Since the rents are very high and the available land is short in the southern parts of Seoul, where most knowledge-based firms locate right now. Many firms have considered relocating on any other places where there exist a plenty of lands available and cheaper rents and cheaper wage rates, but still not far away from Seoul so that they could obtain new advanced information, skilled labors, venture capitals, and high quality of producer services. The Capital region, especially Gyeonggi and Incheon, is the only place to meet those conditions in Korea.

Development of Analysis Model and Improvement of Evaluation Method of LOS for Freeway Merging Areas (고속도로 합류부 분석모형 개발 및 서비스수준 평가 기법 개선 연구)

  • Lee, Seung-Jun;Park, Jae-Beom
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.24 no.7 s.93
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    • pp.115-128
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    • 2006
  • The analytic methodology of a merging area in KHCM(2004) supposes that congestion nay occur when traffic demand is more than capacity However, in many cases, congestion on merging area occurs when summation of traffic demand of main line and ramp is less than capacity, and in present methodology analysis of how main line and ramp flow effect on congestion occurrence is difficult. In this study, the model that is able to estimate traffic flow condition on merging area in accordance with the combination of main line and ramp demand flow is developed. Main characteristic of the model is estimation of maximum possible throughput rate and maximum throughput rate according to the combination of main line and ramp demand flow. Through the estimation of maximum possible throughput rate and maximum throughput rate. it was Possible to predict whether congestion would occur or not and how much maximum throughput rate and congestion would be on merging area. On one hand, in present LOS evaluation methodology on merging area, congestion state is determined as un-congested flow if demand flow is less than capacity. Therefore, to establish more reasonable In evaluation method, new criterion of LOS evaluation on merging area was searched based on the model of this study.

Activity-based Approaches for Travel Demand Modeling: Reviews on Developments and Implementations (교통수요 예측을 위한 활동기반 접근 방법: 경향과 적용현황 고찰)

  • Lim, Kwang-Kyun;Kim, Sigon;Chung, SungBong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.719-727
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    • 2013
  • Four-step travel-demand modeling based on a trip-level has been widely used over many decades. However, there has been a wide variance between forecasted- and real-travel demands, which leads less reliable on the model implications. A primary reason is that person's real travel behavior is not properly captured throughout the model developments. An activity-based modeling (ABM) approach was proposed and developed toward increasing the accuracy and reality of person's travel behavior in the U.S. since 1990', and stands as a good alternative to replace the existing trip-based approach. The paper contributes to the understanding of how the ABM approaches are dissimilar to the trip-based modeling approach in terms of estimation units, estimation process, their pros and cons and etc. We examined three activity-based travel demand model systems (DaySim, CT-Ramp, and CEMDAP) that are most commonly applied by many MPOs (Metropolitan Planning Organization). We found that the ABM approach can effectively explain multi-dimensional travel decision-makings and be expected to increase the predictive accuracy. Overall, the ABM approach can be a good substitute for the existing travel-demand methods having unreliable forecasts.

A Method for Estimating Input-output Tables with Disaggregated Sector (부문 분리된 산업연관표 추계방법)

  • Kiho Jeong
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.849-864
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    • 2022
  • In case of a specific sector being divided into sub-sectors, this study presents a process for estimating an input-output table, which is frequently used as basic data in fields of energy and environment economics. RAS method, which is universally used for this case, requires information on production, intermediate input sum, and intermediate demand sum for each sector in the new table. But in many cases, it is difficult to secure information on intermediate demand sum by sector. This study suggests a process for estimating a new input-output table without using information of intermediate demand sum in the case of sector separation, under the assumption that information of production value and intermediate input sum by sector are available. The key idea is that the values of many elements in the input-output table after disaggregation are the same as those in the table before disaggregation and that the sum of the elements after disaggregation, equals the values of the elements before disaggregation. The process of estimating the intemediate transaction matrix or the input coefficient matrix is presented by using these information instead of intermediate demand sum information. A small-scale simulation shows that the average error rate of the process proposed in this study is about 11.23% in estimating input coefficients, which is smaller than the 11.30% estimation error of RAS using the information of intermediate demand sum. However, since it is known in the literature that using additional information does not always improve estimation performance compared to not using it, additional research on various simulations is needed to apply the method of this study to reality.

Small Area Estimation to Unemployment Statistics in Korea (시군 실업통계 작성을 위한 소지역 추정모형)

  • Kim, Jin;Kim, Jae-Kwang
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.337-347
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    • 2010
  • Most sample surveys are designed to estimate reliable statistics for the whole population and for some large subpopulations. However, the research for small area estimation have been increasing in recent years because users demand to reliable estimates for smaller subpopulations like small areas or specific domains. In Korea, the Economically Active Population Survey(EAPS) is the main household survey that produces monthly unemployment rates for nationwide and 16 large areas (7 metropolitans and 9 provinces) in Korea. For county level estimation, direct estimators are not reliable because of the small sample sizes. We consider small area estimation of the county level unemployment ratesfrom the sample observations in EAPS. To do this, we use an area level model to "borrow strength" from the auxiliary information, such as administrative data and census data. The proposed method is based on the assumption of normality of the model errors in the area level model. The proposed method is compared with the other alternatives in terms of the estimated mean squared errors.