• Title/Summary/Keyword: Delay Change

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Spring Phonology of a Grapevine Cultivar under the Changing Climate in Korea during 1921-2000 (겨울기온 상승에 따른 낙엽과수의 휴면생태 변화)

  • Jung Jea-Eun;Seo Hee-Cheol;Chung U-Ran;Yun Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.116-124
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    • 2006
  • Remarkable winter season warming has been observed in East Asian countries during the last century. Accordingly, significant effects on dormancy and the resulting budburst of deciduous trees are expected. However phenological observations are rare and insufficient compared with the long-time climate records in the same region. A chill-day accumulation, which can be estimated from daily maximum and minimum temperature, is expected to make a reasonable proxy for dormancy depth of temperate zone fruit trees. To simulate dormancy depth during 1921-2004, a chill-day model parameterized for 'Campbell Early' grapevine, which is the major cultivar grown virtually anywhere in South Korea, was applied to daily temperature data at 8 locations in South Korea. The calculations showed that the chilling requirement for breaking endo-dormancy of this grapevine cultivar can be satisfied by mid-January to late February in South Korea, and the date was delayed going either northward or southward from the 'Daegu-Jeonju' line crossing the middle of South Korea in the east-west direction. Maximum length of the cold tolerant period (the number of days between endo-dormancy release and forced dormancy release) showed the same spatial pattern. When we divide the 83 years into 3 periods (I: 1921-1950, II: 1951-1980, and III: 1981-2004) and get the average of each period, dormancy release date of period III was accelerated by as much as 15 days compared with that of period I at all locations except Jeju (located in the southernmost island with subtropical climate) where an average15-day delay was predicted. The cold- tolerant period was also shortened at 6 out of 8 locations. As a result, budburst of 'Campbell Early' in spring was accelerated by 6 to 10 days at most locations, while inter-annual variation in budburst dates was increased at all locations. The earlier budburst after the 1970s was due to (1) warming in winter resulting in earlier dormancy release (Incheon, Mokpo, Gangneung, and Jeonju), (2) warming in early spring accelerating regrowth after breaking dormancy (Busan and Jeju), and (3) both of them (Seoul and Daegu).

The Records and Archives Administrative Reform in China in 1930s (1930년대 중국 문서당안 행정개혁론의 이해)

  • Lee, Won-Kyu
    • The Korean Journal of Archival Studies
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    • no.10
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    • pp.276-322
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    • 2004
  • Historical interest in China in 1930s has been mostly focused on political characteristic of the National Government(國民政府) which was established by the KMT(中國國民黨) as a result of national unification. It is certain that China had a chance to construct a modern country by the establishment of the very unified revolutionary government. But, it was the time of expanding national crises that threatened the existence of the country such as the Manchurian Incident and the Chinese-Japanese War as well as the chaos of the domestic situation, too. So it has a good reason to examine the characteristic and pattern of the response of the political powers of those days. But, as shown in the recent studies, the manifestation method of political power by the revolutionary regime catches our attention through the understanding of internal operating system. Though this writing started from the fact that the Nationalist Government executed the administrative reform which aimed at "administrative efficiency" in the middle of 1930s, but it put stress on the seriousness of the problem and its solution rather than political background or results. "Committee on Administrative Efficiency(行政效率委員會)", the center of administrative reform movement which was established in 1934, examined the plan to execute the reform through legislation by the Executive Council(行政院) on the basis of the results of relevant studies. They claimed that the construction of a modern country should be performed by not political revolution anymore but by gradual improvement and daily reform, and that the operation of the government should become modern, scientific and efficient. There were many fields of administrative reform subjects, but especially, the field of records and archives adminstration(文書檔案行政) was studied intensively from the initial stage because that subject had already been discussed intensively. They recognized that records and archives were the basic tool of work performance and general activity but an inefficient field in spite of many input staff members, and most of all, archival reform bring about less conflicts than the fields of finance, organization and personnel. When it comes to the field of records adminstration, the key subjects that records should be written simply, the process of record treatment should be clear and the delay of that should be prevented were already presented in a records administrative meeting in 1922. That is, the unified law about record management was not established, so each government organization followed a conventional custom or performed independent improvement. It was through the other records administrative workshop of the Nationalist Government in 1933 when the new trend was appeared as the unified system improvement. They decided to unify the format of official records, to use marker and section, to unify the registration of receipt records and dispatch records and to strengthen the examination of records treatment. But, the method of records treatment was not unified yet, so the key point of records administrative reform was to establish a unified and standard record management system for preventing repetition by simplifying the treatment procedure and for intensive treatment by exclusive organizations. From the foundation of the Republic of China to 1930s, there was not big change in the field of archives administration, and archives management methods were prescribed differently even in the same section as well as same department. Therefore, the point at issue was to centralize scattered management systems that were performed in each section, to establish unified standard about filing and retention period allowance and to improve searching system through classification and proper number allowance. Especially, the problem was that each number system and classification system bring about different result due to dual operation of record registration and archives registration, and that strict management through mutual contrast, searching and application are impossible. Besides, various problems such as filing tools, arrangement method, preservation facilities & equipment, lending service and use method were raised also. In the process this study for the system improvement of records and archives management, they recognized that records and archives are the identical thing and reached to create a successive management method of records and archives called "Records and Archives Chain Management Method(文書檔案連鎖法)" as a potential alternative. Several principles that records and archives management should be performed unitedly in each organization by the general record recipient section and the general archives section under the principle of task centralization, a consistent classification system should be used by classification method decided in advance according to organizational constitution and work functions and an identical number system should be used in the process of record management stage and archive management stage by using a card-type register were established. Though, this "Records and Archives Chain Management Method" was developed to the stage of test application in several organizations, but it was not adopted as a regular system and discontinued. That was because the administrative reform of the Nationalist Government was discontinued by the outbreak of the Chinese-Japanese War. Even though the administrative reform in the middle of 1930s didn't produce practical results but merely an experimentation, it was verified that the reform against tradition and custom conducted by the Nationalist Government that aimed for the construction of a modern country was not only a field of politics, but on the other hand, the weak basis of the government operation became the obstacle to the realization of the political power of the revolutionary regime. Though the subject of records and archives administrative reform was postponed to the future, it should be understood that the consciousness of modern records and archives administration and overall studies began through this examination of administrative reform.

A Study on the Data Driven Neural Network Model for the Prediction of Time Series Data: Application of Water Surface Elevation Forecasting in Hangang River Bridge (시계열 자료의 예측을 위한 자료 기반 신경망 모델에 관한 연구: 한강대교 수위예측 적용)

  • Yoo, Hyungju;Lee, Seung Oh;Choi, Seohye;Park, Moonhyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.73-82
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    • 2019
  • Recently, as the occurrence frequency of sudden floods due to climate change increased, the flood damage on riverside social infrastructures was extended so that there has been a threat of overflow. Therefore, a rapid prediction of potential flooding in riverside social infrastructure is necessary for administrators. However, most current flood forecasting models including hydraulic model have limitations which are the high accuracy of numerical results but longer simulation time. To alleviate such limitation, data driven models using artificial neural network have been widely used. However, there is a limitation that the existing models can not consider the time-series parameters. In this study the water surface elevation of the Hangang River bridge was predicted using the NARX model considering the time-series parameter. And the results of the ANN and RNN models are compared with the NARX model to determine the suitability of NARX model. Using the 10-year hydrological data from 2009 to 2018, 70% of the hydrological data were used for learning and 15% was used for testing and evaluation respectively. As a result of predicting the water surface elevation after 3 hours from the Hangang River bridge in 2018, the ANN, RNN and NARX models for RMSE were 0.20 m, 0.11 m, and 0.09 m, respectively, and 0.12 m, 0.06 m, and 0.05 m for MAE, and 1.56 m, 0.55 m and 0.10 m for peak errors respectively. By analyzing the error of the prediction results considering the time-series parameters, the NARX model is most suitable for predicting water surface elevation. This is because the NARX model can learn the trend of the time series data and also can derive the accurate prediction value even in the high water surface elevation prediction by using the hyperbolic tangent and Rectified Linear Unit function as an activation function. However, the NARX model has a limit to generate a vanishing gradient as the sequence length becomes longer. In the future, the accuracy of the water surface elevation prediction will be examined by using the LSTM model.

Growth and Useful Component of Angelica gigas Nakai under High Temperature Stress (고온 스트레스에 따른 참당귀의 생육 및 유용성분 특성)

  • Jeong, Dae Hui;Kim, Ki Yoon;Park, Sung Hyuk;Jung, Chung Ryul;Jeon, Kwon Seok;Park, Hong Woo
    • Korean Journal of Plant Resources
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.287-296
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    • 2021
  • Recently, the pace of global climate change has tremendously increased, causing extreme damage to crop production. Here, we aimed to examine the growth characteristics and useful components of Angelica gigas under extreme heat stress, providing fundamental data for its efficient cultivation. Plants were exposed to various experimental temperatures (28℃, 34℃, and 40℃), and their growth characteristics and content of useful components were analyzed. At the experimental site, the ambient and soil temperature were 19.38℃ and 21.34℃, ambient and soil humidity were 81.3 % and 0.18 m3/m3, solar radiation was 162.05 W/m2. Moreover, the soil was sandy-clay-loam (pH 6.65), with 2.66% organic matter, 868.52 mg/kg soil available phosphate, and 0.14% nitrogen. Values of most growth characteristics, including the survival rate (85%), plant height (38.66cm), and fresh and dry weight (41.3 g and 14.24 g), were the highest at 28℃. Although the highest content of useful components was observed at 34℃ (3.24%), there were no significant differences across temperatures. Growth characteristics varied across temperatures due to detrimental effects of heat stress, such as accelerated tissue aging, reduced photosynthesis, and delay of growth. Similar content of useful components across temperatures may be due to poor accumulation of anabolic products caused by impaired growth at extremely high temperatures.

Analysis of Causality of the Increase in the Port Congestion due to the COVID-19 Pandemic and BDI(Baltic Dry Index) (COVID-19 팬데믹으로 인한 체선율 증가와 부정기선 운임지수의 인과성 분석)

  • Lee, Choong-Ho;Park, Keun-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.161-173
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    • 2021
  • The shipping industry plummeted and was depressed due to the global economic crisis caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in the US in 2008. In 2020, the shipping market also suffered from a collapse in the unstable global economic situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but unexpectedly, it changed to an upward trend from the end of 2020, and in 2021, it exceeded the market of the boom period of 2008. According to the Clarksons report published in May 2021, the decrease in cargo volume due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has returned to the pre-corona level by the end of 2020, and the tramper bulk carrier capacity of 103~104% of the Panamax has been in the ports due to congestion. Earnings across the bulker segments have risen to ten-year highs in recent months. In this study, as factors affecting BDI, the capacity and congestion ratio of Cape and Panamax ships on the supply side, iron ore and coal seaborne tonnge on the demand side and Granger causality test, IRF(Impulse Response Function) and FEVD(Forecast Error Variance Decomposition) were performed using VAR model to analyze the impact on BDI by congestion caused by strengthen quarantine at the port due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the loading and discharging operation delay due to the infection of the stevedore, etc and to predict the shipping market after the pandemic. As a result of the Granger causality test of variables and BDI using time series data from January 2016 to July 2021, causality was found in the Fleet and Congestion variables, and as a result of the Impulse Response Function, Congestion variable was found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. As a result of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, Congestion variable showed an explanatory power upto 25% for the change in BDI. If the congestion in ports decreases after With Corona, it is expected that there is down-risk in the shipping market. The COVID-19 pandemic occurred not from economic factors but from an ecological factor by the pandemic is different from the past economic crisis. It is necessary to analyze from a different point of view than the past economic crisis. This study has meaningful to analyze the causality and explanatory power of Congestion factor by pandemic.

Development and Application of Instrument for Level Scale of the Systems Thinking Ability about Carbon Cycle (탄소 순환에 대한 시스템 사고 능력 수준 측정을 위한 검사도구 개발 및 적용)

  • Jeon, Jaedon;Lee, Hyundong;Lee, Hyonyong
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.397-415
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    • 2022
  • As the global warming problem becomes serious, the need for carbon cycle education in school is increasing. Adopting systems thinking ability is needed to understand the carbon cycle systematically. Furthermore, under the rapid change of environment, society, and economy, systems thinking ability is being emphasized as it can strengthen the competencies of students who will be leading the future society. The purposes of this study are as follows: first, is developing the systems thinking instrument for the carbon cycle and the rubric for analysis of systems thinking instrument. The second is analyzing the systems thinking ability of students using the developed instrument and rubric. In order to perform this study, previous studies related to the carbon cycle and systems thinking education were analyzed. Based on the analysis results, the systems thinking instrument for the carbon cycle and rubric were developed. The systems thinking ability was analyzed by implementing the developed instrument and rubric to 172 high school and university students. The results of this study are as follows: first, the systems thinking instrument for the carbon cycle was developed, and a rubric utilization guide was constructed. The instrument and rubric were modified through pilot study for middle school students producing expert opinion in relation to systems thinking and carbon cycle. Second, the systems thinking ability of students was analyzed. Consequently, students had systems thinking ability fully at a low level, such as identifying the variables related to the carbon cycle. However, it was shown that they lacked the systems thinking ability at a high level, such as time delay and feedback processes. The importance of the carbon cycle has been increasing since the global warming is the most pressing issue and significant environmental problem facing us today. Application of the systems thinking ability can contribute to understanding these complex problems and finding fundamental solutions.

Unusual Delay of Heading Date in the 2022 Rice Growth and Yield Monitoring Experiment (2022년도 벼 작황시험에서 관찰된 출수기 지연 현상 보고)

  • HyeonSeok, Lee;WoonHa, Hwang;SeoYeong, Yang;Yeongseo, Song;WooJin, Im;HoeJeong, Jeong;ChungGen, Lee;HyeongJoo, Lee;JongTae, Jeong;JongHee, Shin;MyoungGoo, Choi
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.330-336
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    • 2022
  • It is likely that the heading would occur early when air temperature increases. In 2022, however, the heading date was delayed unusually, e.g., by 3 to 5 days although temperature during the vegetative growth stage was higher than normal years. The objective of this study was to identify the cause of such event analyzing weather variables including average temperature, sunshine hours, and day-length for each growth stage. The observation data were collected for medium-late maturing varieties, which has been grown at crop yield experiment sites including Daegu, Andong, and Yesan. The difference in heading date was compared between growing seasons in 2021 and 2022 because crop management options, e.g., the cultivars and cultivation methods, were identical at those sites during the study period. It appeared that the heading date was delayed due to the difference in temperature responsiveness under a given day-length condition The effect of the temperature increase on the heading date differed between the periods during which when the day-length was more than 14.3 hours before and after the summer-solstice.. The effect of the temperature decrease during the period from which the day-length decreased to less than 14.3 hours to the heading date was relatively greater. This merits further studies to examine the response of rice to the temperature change under different day-length and sunshine duration in terms of heading.

Improving the Shelf Life of Pork by using a Coating Agent with Mandarin Peel Powder (귤 과피 분말을 첨가한 피막제 처리에 의한 돈육의 저장성 향상)

  • Hyeonjeong Choi;Yong-Suk Kim
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.55-62
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    • 2023
  • This study aimed to investigate the effect of a coating agent on pork storage. Pork was coated with a coating agent containing sodium carboxymethyl cellulose (CMC) and mandarin peel powder (M). The treatments were divided into control, a 0.1% CMC treatment, and a 0.1% CMC +5% M treatment, and pH, color, 2-thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS), volatile basic nitrogen (VBN), and the number of viable cell counts were measured. In the case of redness (a), it was found that the reduction over the storage period was less in the 0.1% CMC + 5% M treatment than in the control and the 1% CMC treatment. When stored at 4℃ and 25℃, TBARS of pork tended to increase during the storage period, followed by control, 0.1% CMC treatment, and 0.1% CMC + 5% M treatment, indicating that lipid oxidation was most suppressed in pork coated with mandarin peel powder. As a result of measuring the VBN of pork stored at 4℃ and 25℃, the 0.1% CMC + 5% M treatment showed lower values than the control and 0.1% CMC treatment. When the film-coated pork was stored at 4℃, the number of viable cell counts in the 0.1% CMC +5% M treatment area was 7.13±0.96 log CFU/g on the 12th day of storage, delaying the growth of viable cell counts for approximately 3 d more than other treatments. Therefore, coating pork with a film containing CMC and mandarin peel powder has been confirmed to delay the increase in the number of viable cell counts while reducing the quality change during pork storage, which is an effective alternative to improving the storage of fresh food as an edible film.

Impact and significance of Nongak(農樂) education in Agricultural High School since 1950 on the modern Korean Nongak History (1950년대 중반 이후 농림/농업고등학교에서의 농악(農樂) 교육이 한국농악 현대사에 끼친 영향과 의의)

  • Yang, Ok-Kyung
    • (The) Research of the performance art and culture
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    • no.40
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    • pp.111-136
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    • 2020
  • Agricultural high schools are undergoing a change their name from the mid-1950s to the 2000s. Although it varies slightly depending on the case, it has been changed from 'rural forests' to 'agricultural farms' or 'agricultural industries' and 'life sciences high schools' in turn. In several aricultural high schools had managed Nongak Department(class), it's guarantees the continuity of Korea's traditional folk art. Examples include entertainment and farming in Honam region of Jeonju aricultural high School in North Jeolla Province, Geumsan aricultural high School in South Chungcheong Province, Gimcheon aricultural high School in North Gyeongsang Province. Therefore, the interpretation and significance of studies should follow. This method of Nongak education in modern school institutions is a new phenomenon in the history of Nongak after modern time, the emergence of a whole new pattern of professional entertainment Nongak after paving and Female-Nongak, as well as local traditional folk music. Education here was conducted in such a way that the best performers of the time were invited as guidance teachers among traditional folk artists. Thus, various local and professional music and entertainment were able to be promoted Apart from the social relations of delay, social progress, and economy, the education of farming and music, which consists of teachers and students in public schools, has provided an environment where unlimited freedom is allowed for art forms. In other words, the conditions for a new performance style experiment and creative fusion were met, and the foundation for the development of professional musical performers who had acquired individualized talents from previous generations was laid down in the context of the phenomenon of active stage music and theater performance of outstanding in the culture of Nongak. In other words, the Department of Agriculture and aricultural high school was a very free space compared to other communities' and economic community's agricultural music in social relationships bound by traditional cultural customs. This is why they have created a new style of performance through a new experiment and a different traditional performance repertoire, and their activities have led to a more stylistic expansion from traditional farming. More importantly, the figures who came across Agricultural Nongak department became the main experts of traditional Korean folk music nowdays. Thus, Nongak Department, operated by the Agriculture and Forestry High School, was a space where would give a very important meaning in terms of Nongak history.

Deriving Key Risk Sub-Clauses of General Conditions of FIDIC White Book - Based on FIDIC Client/Consultant Model Services Agreement, 5th edition 2017 - (FIDIC White Book 일반조건 핵심 리스크 세부조항 도출 - 피딕 클라이언트/컨설턴트 모델 서비스 계약, 2017년 5판 기준으로 -)

  • Jei, Jaeyong;Hong, Seongyeoll;Seo, Sungchul;Park, Hyungkeun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.59-69
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    • 2023
  • FIDIC White Book is a Model Services Agreement between the Client and the Consultant. This study aimed to derive the Key Risk Sub-Clauses out of 63 Sub-Clauses of General Conditions of the FIDIC White Book by using the Delphi technique. A panel of 40 experts with more than 10 years of experience and expertise in overseas construction services agreements and FIDIC White Book was formed, and the reliability was improved in the direction of increasing the consensus of experts through a total of three Delphi survey processes. In the first Delphi survey, a closed-type survey was conducted on the impact of risk among 63 Sub-Clauses of General Conditions on a Likert 5-point scale, and 26 main risk Sub-Clauses were derived. The Content Validity of the results of the first Delphi survey was verified with the CVR value. In the 2nd and 3rd Delphi surveys, a closed-type survey was conducted on a Likert 10-point scale for 26 main risk Sub-Clauses and the risk possibility and impact of each main risk Sub-Clause were evaluated. The reliability of the 3rd Delphi survey result was verified with the COV value. Total 14 Key Risk Sub-Clauses were derived by applying the average risk possibility and impact of each of the 26 main risk Sub-Clauses to the PI Risk Matrix. The results of deriving Key Risk Sub-Clauses showed that agreement on specific scope of service, delay management, and change management were the most important. As a result of this study, from a practical point of view, consultants of consulting companies provide guidelines that should be reviewed to minimize contractual risks when signing service contracts with clients. From an academic point of view, the direction of research on deriving key risks related to service contracts for consultants participating in overseas construction is presented.