• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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• 2003.09a
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• pp.555-558
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• 2003

The Choquet-Stieltjes integral is defined. It is shown that the Choquet -Stieltjes integral is rep-resented by a Choquet integral. As an application of the theorem above, it is shown that Choquet expected utility model for decision under uncertainty and rank dependent utility model for decision under .risk are respectively same as their simplified version.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.181-191
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• 1988

This paper aims to identify the farmers decision making under uncertainty. Qiuite a few studies have been done on the farmers decision making without uncertainty, but few studies have been made to see farmers decision making under uncertainty in Korea. There are many ways to avoid risks or uncertainty, Wald, Savage, Hurwicz, Laplace, Agrawl-Heady etc. are studied in this field. Fourty farmers were selected as samples. Among those half are the suburbs, and the other half are rural farmers. The results of this study are summarized as follows; First, the suburb farmers are more profit pursuit farmers. Second, not only the rural farmers but the suburb farmers are concerned more safety rather than output maximization. Third, the subsistence farmers and semi-commercial farmers are decided by Wald criterion, but the commercial farmers are decided by Savage or Laplace criterion. Fourth, information is very important in farmers decision making, but the creditability is far from satisfactory to the farmers.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.78-82
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• 1993

The object of research is detecting and eliminating the unsafty factor in shortest time through a decision making simulation under uncertainty using simulation method The decision making simulation using C language Is used to analyze data from several factors which affects the crane breakdown under unsafe situation. Through this research, the following conclusions are obtained. first, the safety manager or the person can estimate the time required to handle the unsafe factors. Secondly, The decision making can be accomplished by minimizing the time required under uncertainty by analyzing them.

• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.159-179
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• 1997

Traditionally, the evaluation and selection of suppliers have been a major purchasing function. A growing concern for just in-time purchasing, global sourcing, and long-term partnership between buyers and suppliers makes selecting a righ supplier become more critical decision making process. Consequently, a rigorous and systematic method for evaluation suppliers is a must. However, assessing the values of factors(e.g. qulaity , delivery, and service) selected for evaluating suppliers contains elements of uncertainty. Although several methods have been developed for uncertainty analysis, they may not be proper tools for evaluating suppliers under uncertainty. In this paper, a methodology using a fuzzy-set approach in combination with a multicriterion decision-making (MCDM) technique is developed to use as a tool for evaluating suppliers under uncertainty. An numerical example is presented to demonstrate the method in practice.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.39 no.2
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• pp.109-123
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• 2008

This study is aimed to establish an investment decision model for offshore aquaculture project of rock bream in Korea using a certainty equivalent method (CEM) based on the expected utility theory and to investigate its economic viability under risk and uncertainty. In the analysis with CEM, the effects of risk attitude and risk level on investment and risk premium were examined and the impacts of various risk and uncertainty factors on the investment decision were also assessed. In addition, the outcomes were compared to those evaluated by the traditional net present value (NPV) method. Results show that risk premium grew as the investors became more risk averse and uncertainty level (the variance of NPV) increased. Consequently, the certainty equivalent value was predicted to decrease from the value assessed by the traditional NPV method.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.459-487
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• 2011

A/R CDM project has properties such as irreversibility and uncertainty that Real Option Analysis can be applied to its modelling. This study tries to model A/R CDM using Real Option under CER price uncertainty, and conducts empirical test with the Posco A/R CDM Project case. For precise comparison and decision-making, l-CER's expected present value is calculated from the Spot CER price. As a result, the critical value of the project is lower than the expected l-CER price, which means that the decision to invest made by the project owner is profitable. We can also find out that the level and the range of the discount rate, where is applied to, affect the result; the critical value of the project and the decision-making.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.22 no.52
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• pp.311-322
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• 1999

Major problems involved in an electrical utility expansion planning within a time horizon are how to efficiently deal with objectives considering multiple factors and uncertainty. But justification factors in study these days have considered only quantitative factors except qualitative factors. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to develop a new model for economic evaluation of nuclear power plants through the scoring model with the quantitative and qualitative factors under uncertainty. The quantitative factors use a levelized generation cost method considering time value of money. Especially, the environmental, risk, and safety factors in this paper have been also explained for the rational economic justification of the qualitative factors under uncertainty. This paper not only proposes a new approach method using the scoring model in evaluating economy of the nuclear power plant in the long term, but also provides the more efficient decision making criterion for nuclear power plants under uncertainty.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.39-60
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• 1995

In this paper, an integration of stochastic dynamic programming (SDP), integer goal programming (IGP) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is proposed to handle multiobjective-multicriteria sequential decision making problems under uncertainty inherent in R & D investment planning. SDP has its capability to handle problems which are sequential and stochastic. In the SDP model, the probabilities of the funding levels in any time period are generated using a subjective model which employs functional relationships among interrelated parameters, scenarios of future budget availability and subjective inputs elicited from a group of decision makers. The SDP model primarily yields an optimal investment planning policy considering the possibility that actual funding received may be less than anticipated one and thus the projects being selected under the anticipated budget would be interrupted. IGP is used to handle the multiobjective issues such as tradoff between economic benefit and technology accumulation level. Other managerial concerns related to the determination of the optimal project portifolio within each stage of the SDP model. including project selection, project scheduling and annual budget allocation are also determined by the IGP. AHP is proposed for generating scenario-based transformation probabilities under budgetary uncertainty and for quantifying the environmental risk to be considered.

• Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.699-712
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• 2000

Juam lake is a major water resource for the industrial and agricultural activities as well as the resident life of Kwangju and Chonnam regions. However, the water quality of the lake is getting worse due to a large quantity of pollutant inflowing to the lake. Thus, the strategy for achieving the water quality goal of the lake should be developed as soon as possible. When there are various alternatives that can be used as the strategy, several criteria based on the achievement degree of water quality goal, the applicability of technique and social environment, and the reasonableness of the cost required are made to evaluate and rank the alternatives. However, it is difficult to make a decision when there are multiple criteria and conflicting objectives and specifically the estimated values of criteria contain elements of uncertainty. The uncertainty stems from the lack of available information, the randomness of future situation, and the incomplete knowledge of expert. As the degree of uncertainty is higher, the decision becomes more difficult. In this study, a fuzzy decision-making method is presented to assist decision makers in evaluating various alternatives under uncertainty. The method allows decision makers to characterize the associated uncertainty by applying fuzzy theory and incorporate the uncertainty directly into the decision making process for selecting the "best" alternative so decisions can be made that are more appropriate and realistic than those made without taking uncertainty in account.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.21-34
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• 1986

The purpose of this study is to analyse the risk and uncertainty involved in the capital budgeting which is executed in long periods and requires massive capital expenditure. Under risk and uncertainty conditions, the estimates in the capital budgeting are random variables rather than known constants. Two approaches have emerged in performing economic analysis that explicitly incorporate risk and uncertainty conditions in the analysis. One approach is to develop a descriptive model which describes the economic performance of an individual investment alternative. But no recomendation would be forthcoming from the model. Rather, the decision-maker would be furnished descriptive information concerning each alternative; the final choice among the alternatives would required a separate action. The second approach is to develop a normative model which includes an objective function to be maximized or minimized. The output from the model prescribes the course of action to be taken. Owing to the fact that the normative approach considers the fitness of criteria for decision-making its reasonableness looks better. But it is almost imposible that we correctly and easily derive the individuals' utility function. So within we recognize the limits of the descriptive methods, it is more practicle to analyse the investment alternatives by sensitivity analysis.