• Clinical and Experimental Emergency Medicine
• /
• 제5권4호
• /
• pp.230-239
• /
• 2018

Objective The suicide rate in South Korea is very high and is expected to increase in coming years. Intoxication is the most common suicide attempt method as well as one of the common reason for presenting to an emergency medical center. We used decision tree modeling analysis to identify predictors of risk for suicide by intentional intoxication. Methods A single-center, retrospective study was conducted at our hospital using a 4-year registry of the institute from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2016. Demographic factors, such as sex, age, intentionality, therapeutic adherence, alcohol consumption, smoking status, physical disease, cancer, psychiatric disease, and toxicological factors, such as type of intoxicant and poisoning severity score were collected. Candidate risk factors based on the decision tree were used to select variables for multiple logistic regression analysis. Results In total, 4,023 patients with intoxication were enrolled as study participants, with 2,247 (55.9%) identified as cases of intentional intoxication. Reported annual percentages of intentional intoxication among patients were 628/937 (67.0%), 608/1,082 (56.2%), 536/1,017 (52.7), 475/987 (48.1%) from 2013 to 2016. Significant predictors identified based on decision tree analysis were alcohol consumption, old age, psychiatric disease, smoking, and male sex; those identified based on multiple regression analysis were alcohol consumption, smoking, male sex, psychiatric disease, old age, poor therapeutic adherence, and physical disease. Conclusion We identified important predictors of suicide risk by intentional intoxication. A specific and realistic approach to analysis using the decision tree modeling technique is an effective method to determine those groups at risk of suicide by intentional intoxication.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
• /
• 제21권6호
• /
• pp.9-19
• /
• 2016

In finance literature, stock liquidity showing how stocks can be cashed out in the market has received rich attentions from both academicians and practitioners. The reasons are plenty. First, it is known that stock liquidity affects significantly asset pricing. Second, macroeconomic announcements influence liquidity in the stock market. Therefore, stock liquidity itself affects investors' decision and managers' decision as well. Though there exist a great deal of literature about stock liquidity in finance literature, it is quite clear that there are no studies attempting to investigate the stock liquidity issue as one of decision making problems. In finance literature, most of stock liquidity studies had dealt with limited views such as how much it influences stock price, which variables are associated with describing the stock liquidity significantly, etc. However, this paper posits that stock liquidity issue may become a serious decision-making problem, and then be handled by using data mining techniques to estimate its future extent with statistical validity. In this sense, we collected financial data set from a number of manufacturing companies listed in KRX (Korea Exchange) during the period of 2010 to 2013. The reason why we selected dataset from 2010 was to avoid the after-shocks of financial crisis that occurred in 2008. We used Fn-GuidPro system to gather total 5,700 financial data set. Stock liquidity measure was computed by the procedures proposed by Amihud (2002) which is known to show best metrics for showing relationship with daily return. We applied five data mining techniques (or classifiers) such as Bayesian network, support vector machine (SVM), decision tree, neural network, and ensemble method. Bayesian networks include GBN (General Bayesian Network), NBN (Naive BN), TAN (Tree Augmented NBN). Decision tree uses CART and C4.5. Regression result was used as a benchmarking performance. Ensemble method uses two types-integration of two classifiers, and three classifiers. Ensemble method is based on voting for the sake of integrating classifiers. Among the single classifiers, CART showed best performance with 48.2%, compared with 37.18% by regression. Among the ensemble methods, the result from integrating TAN, CART, and SVM was best with 49.25%. Through the additional analysis in individual industries, those relatively stabilized industries like electronic appliances, wholesale & retailing, woods, leather-bags-shoes showed better performance over 50%.

• 한국정보통신학회논문지
• /
• 제25권10호
• /
• pp.1296-1301
• /
• 2021

최근 전 세계적으로 당뇨병 유발률이 증가함에 따라 다양한 머신러닝과 딥러닝 기술을 통해 당뇨병을 예측하려고 는 연구가 이어지고 있다. 본 연구에서는 독일의 Frankfurt Hospital 데이터로 머신러닝 기법을 활용하여 당뇨병을 예측하는 모델을 제시한다. IQR(Interquartile Range) 기법을 이용한 이상치 처리와 피어슨 상관관계 분석을 적용하고 Decision Tree, Random Forest, Knn, SVM, 앙상블 기법인 XGBoost, Voting, Stacking로 모델별 당뇨병 예측 성능을 비교한다. 연구를 진행한 결과 Stacking ensemble 기법의 정확도가 98.75%로 가장 뛰어난 성능을 보였다. 따라서 해당 모델을 이용하여 현대 사회에 만연한 당뇨병을 정확히 예측하고 예방할 수 있다는 점에서 본 연구는 의의가 있다.

• 응용통계연구
• /
• 제29권7호
• /
• pp.1257-1270
• /
• 2016

본 연구는 영화 흥행의 척도로서 총 관객수의 예측을 다루었다. 의사결정나무, MLP 신경망모형, 다항로짓모형, support vector machine과 같은 데이터마이닝 분류 기법들을 사용하여 개봉 전, 개봉 일, 개봉 1주 후, 그리고 개봉 2주 후 시점 별로 예측이 이루어진다. 국적, 등급, 개봉 월, 개봉 계절, 감독, 배우, 배급사, 관객수, 그리고 스크린 수와 같은 영화의 내재적인 속성을 나타내는 변수 뿐만 아니라 포털의 평점과 평가자 수, 블로그 수, 뉴스 수와 같은 온라인 구전 변수들이 예측변수로 사용되었다. 10-중 교차 검증에서 신경망모형의 정확도는 개봉 전 시점에서도 90% 이상의 높은 예측력을 보였다. 또한 최종 온라인 구전 변수의 추정치를 예측변수로 추가함으로서 예측의 정확도가 더 높아짐을 볼 수 있다.

• Agribusiness and Information Management
• /
• 제10권2호
• /
• pp.1-7
• /
• 2018

In the present day context of changing information needs of the farmers and diversified production systems there is an urgent need to look for the effective extension support system for the small and marginal farmers in the developing countries like India. The rapid developments in the collection and analysis of field data by using the spatial technologies like GPS&GIS were made available for the extension functionaries and clientele for the diversified information needs. This article describes the GIS and GPS based decision support system in precision agriculture for the resource poor farmers. Precision farming techniques are employed to increase yield, reduce production costs, and minimize negative impacts to the environment. The parameters those can affect the crop yields, anomalous factors and variations in management practices can be evaluated through this GPS and GIS based applications. The spatial visualisation capabilities of GIS technology interfaced with a relational database provide an effective method for analysing and displaying the impacts of Extension education and outreach projects for small and marginal farmers in precision agriculture. This approach mainly benefits from the emergence and convergence of several technologies, including the Global Positioning System (GPS), geographic information system (GIS), miniaturised computer components, automatic control, in-field and remote sensing, mobile computing, advanced information processing, and telecommunications. The PPP convergence of person (farmer), project (the operational field) and pixel (the digital images related to the field and the crop grown in the field) will better be addressed by this decision support model. So the convergence and emergence of such information will further pave the way for categorisation and grouping of the production systems for the better extension delivery. In a big country like India where the farmers and holdings are many in number and diversified categorically such grouping is inevitable and also economical. With this premise an attempt has been made to develop a precision farming model suitable for the developing countries like India.

• 한국정보과학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국정보과학회 2011년도 한국컴퓨터종합학술대회논문집 Vol.38 No.1(A)
• /
• pp.302-304
• /
• 2011

Rule based machine learning techniques are very important in our real world now. We can list out some important application which we can apply rule based machine learning algorithm such as medical data mining, business transaction mining. The different between rules based machine learning and model based machine learning is that model based machine learning out put some models, which often are very difficult to understand by expert or human. But rule based techniques output are the rule sets which is in IF THEN format. For example IF blood pressure=90 and kidney problem=yes then take this drug. By this way, medical doctor can easy modify and update some usable rule. This is the scenario in medical decision support system. Currently, Rough set is one of the most famous theory which can be used for produce the rule. LEM2 is the algorithm use this theory and can produce the small set of rule on the database. In this paper, we present an improvement of LEM2 algorithm which incorporates the variable precision techniques.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
• /
• 제12권3호
• /
• pp.483-503
• /
• 2017

Uncertainty is a fact belonging to engineering practice. An important uncertainty that sets geotechnical engineering is the variability associated with the properties of soils or, more precisely, the characterization of soil profiles. The reason is due largely to the complex and varied natural processes associated with the formation of soil. Spatial variability analysis for the study of the stability of natural slopes, complementing conventional analyses, is able to incorporate these uncertainties. In this paper the characterization is performed in back-analysis for a case of landslide occurred to verify afterwards the presence of the conditions of shear strength at failure. This approach may support designers to make more accurate estimates regarding slope failure responding, more consciously, to the legislation dispositions about slope stability evaluation and future design. By applying different kriging techniques used for spatial analysis it has been possible to perform a 3D-slope reconstruction. The predictive analysis and the areal mapping of the soil mechanical characteristics would support the definition of priority interventions in the zones characterized by more critical values as well as slope potential instability. This tool of analysis aims to support decision-making by directing project planning through the efficient allocation of available resources.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
• /
• 제30권4호
• /
• pp.155-163
• /
• 2007

Future war needs a lot of changes for military organization. Specially, concept of the "Speed" is raised importantly after Iraq war of U.S. Armed Forces. So, He is a lot of studying supply chain for logistical support speed improvement. Korea Marine Corps has made an efforts to improve supply chain. However it is real that is putting various techniques by prescription rather than fundamental change. These simplicity prescriptions are not only systematic but also insufficient for Marine Corps' survival. In addition, Korea marine corps in actuality is depending on many members in marine and navy in feed chain. Thus it is not establishing even tactical, decision-making plan of operation for support ability cultivation. Therefore, in this study, with Sense and Response concept that is United States Marine Corps' support strategy, presented theoretical background and basis frame that serve that Korea Marine Corps's supply chain changes to perception reaction formation.

• 지능정보연구
• /
• 제18권1호
• /
• pp.125-141
• /
• 2012

본 연구는 최근 그 중요성이 한층 높아지고 있는 침입탐지시스템(IDS, Intrusion Detection System)의 침입탐지모형을 개선하기 위한 방안으로 유전자 알고리즘에 기반한 새로운 통합모형을 제시한다. 본 연구의 제안모형은 서로 상호보완적 관계에 있는 이분류 모형인 로지스틱 회귀분석(LOGIT, Logistic Regression), 의사결정나무(DT, Decision Tree), 인공신경망 (ANN, Artificial Neural Network), 그리고 SVM(Support Vector Machine)의 예측결과에 적절한 가중치를 부여해 최종 예측결과를 산출하도록 하였는데, 이 때 최적 가중치의 탐색을 위한 방법으로는 유전자 알고리즘을 사용한다. 아울러, 본 연구에서는 1차적으로 오탐지율을 최소화하는 최적의 모형을 산출한 뒤, 이어 비대칭 오류비용 개념을 반영해 오탐지로 인해 발생할 수 있는 전체 비용을 최소화할 수 있는 최적 임계치를 탐색, 최종적으로 가장 비용 효율적인 침입탐지모형을 도출하고자 하였다. 본 연구에서는 제안모형의 우수성을 확인하기 위해, 국내 한 공공기관의 보안센서로부터 수집된 로그 데이터를 바탕으로 실증 분석을 수행하였다. 그 결과, 본 연구에서 제안한 유전자 알고리즘 기반 통합모형이 인공신경망이나 SVM만으로 구성된 단일모형에 비해 학습용과 검증용 데이터셋 모두에서 더 우수한 탐지율을 보임을 확인할 수 있었다. 비대칭 오류비용을 고려한 전체 비용의 관점에서도 단일모형으로 된 비교모형에 비해 본 연구의 제안모형이 더 낮은 비용을 나타냄을 확인할 수 있었다. 이렇게 실증적으로 그 효과가 검증된 본 연구의 제안 모형은 앞으로 보다 지능화된 침입탐지시스템을 개발하는데 유용하게 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• 지능정보연구
• /
• 제17권3호
• /
• pp.25-41
• /
• 2011

최근 몇 년간 SVM(support vector machines)기법은 패턴인식 또는 분류의사결정문제를 위한 분석기법으로서 기존의 데이터마이닝 기법과 비교할 때, 매우 높은 성과를 갖는 것으로 인식되어 왔다. 더 나아나 많은 연구자들은 SVM기법이 1980년대 이후 대표적인 예측 및 분류모형으로 인정받은 인공신경망기법(ANNs : Artificial Neural Networks)에 비해 더 성과가 좋다는 사실을 실증적으로 입증해 왔다(Amendolia et al., 2003; Huang et al., 2004, Huang et al., 2005; Tay and Cao, 2001; Min and Lee, 2005; Shin et al., 2005; Kim, 2003). 일반적으로 이와 같이 다양한 데이터마이닝 기법에 의해 분석되는 이진분류 또는 다분류 의사결정문제들은 특히 금융분야 등에 있어서 오분류비용에 민감하며, 이로 인한 오분류의 경제적 손실도 상대적으로 매우 크다고 할 수 있다. 따라서 기업부도예측모형과 같은 이진분류모형의 결과값을, 부도확률에 기초하여 정교하게 계산된 사후확률의 개념으로서 다분류의 신용등급평가의 문제로 변환할 필요가 있다. 그러나, SVM 모형의 결과값은 기본적으로 그와 같은 부도확률분포를 보여주지 않는다. 따라서, 그러한 확률분포를 정교하게 보여줄 방법을 제시할 필요가 있다(Platt, 1999; Drish, 2001). 본 연구는 AdaBoost 알고리즘기반의 SVM 모형을 이용하여, 이진분류모형으로서 IT 기업의 부실예측모형에 적용한 후, 이 SVM 모형의 예측결과를 SVM의 손실함수에 적용하여 계산된 값을 사후부도확률의 정규분포 특성에 따라 이를 구간화하여 IT기업에 대한 다분류 신용등급 평가의 문제로 전환시키는 방법을 제시하였다. 그리고 본 연구에서 제안하는 방법은 이러한 AdaBoost 알고리즘기반 SVM 모형이 각 기업이 고유한 신용위험(부도확률)을 갖고 있다는 조건하에서, 신용등급부여를 위한 부도확률분포 구간을 정교하게 조정함으로써 오분류 문제를 좀 더 줄일 수 있음을 제시하였다.