• Title/Summary/Keyword: Decision making tree

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Development of a Detection Model for the Companies Designated as Administrative Issue in KOSDAQ Market (KOSDAQ 시장의 관리종목 지정 탐지 모형 개발)

  • Shin, Dong-In;Kwahk, Kee-Young
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.157-176
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this research is to develop a detection model for companies designated as administrative issue in KOSDAQ market using financial data. Administration issue designates the companies with high potential for delisting, which gives them time to overcome the reasons for the delisting under certain restrictions of the Korean stock market. It acts as an alarm to inform investors and market participants of which companies are likely to be delisted and warns them to make safe investments. Despite this importance, there are relatively few studies on administration issues prediction model in comparison with the lots of studies on bankruptcy prediction model. Therefore, this study develops and verifies the detection model of the companies designated as administrative issue using financial data of KOSDAQ companies. In this study, logistic regression and decision tree are proposed as the data mining models for detecting administrative issues. According to the results of the analysis, the logistic regression model predicted the companies designated as administrative issue using three variables - ROE(Earnings before tax), Cash flows/Shareholder's equity, and Asset turnover ratio, and its overall accuracy was 86% for the validation dataset. The decision tree (Classification and Regression Trees, CART) model applied the classification rules using Cash flows/Total assets and ROA(Net income), and the overall accuracy reached 87%. Implications of the financial indictors selected in our logistic regression and decision tree models are as follows. First, ROE(Earnings before tax) in the logistic detection model shows the profit and loss of the business segment that will continue without including the revenue and expenses of the discontinued business. Therefore, the weakening of the variable means that the competitiveness of the core business is weakened. If a large part of the profits is generated from one-off profit, it is very likely that the deterioration of business management is further intensified. As the ROE of a KOSDAQ company decreases significantly, it is highly likely that the company can be delisted. Second, cash flows to shareholder's equity represents that the firm's ability to generate cash flow under the condition that the financial condition of the subsidiary company is excluded. In other words, the weakening of the management capacity of the parent company, excluding the subsidiary's competence, can be a main reason for the increase of the possibility of administrative issue designation. Third, low asset turnover ratio means that current assets and non-current assets are ineffectively used by corporation, or that asset investment by corporation is excessive. If the asset turnover ratio of a KOSDAQ-listed company decreases, it is necessary to examine in detail corporate activities from various perspectives such as weakening sales or increasing or decreasing inventories of company. Cash flow / total assets, a variable selected by the decision tree detection model, is a key indicator of the company's cash condition and its ability to generate cash from operating activities. Cash flow indicates whether a firm can perform its main activities(maintaining its operating ability, repaying debts, paying dividends and making new investments) without relying on external financial resources. Therefore, if the index of the variable is negative(-), it indicates the possibility that a company has serious problems in business activities. If the cash flow from operating activities of a specific company is smaller than the net profit, it means that the net profit has not been cashed, indicating that there is a serious problem in managing the trade receivables and inventory assets of the company. Therefore, it can be understood that as the cash flows / total assets decrease, the probability of administrative issue designation and the probability of delisting are increased. In summary, the logistic regression-based detection model in this study was found to be affected by the company's financial activities including ROE(Earnings before tax). However, decision tree-based detection model predicts the designation based on the cash flows of the company.

Refining Rules of Decision Tree Using Extended Data Expression (확장형 데이터 표현을 이용하는 이진트리의 룰 개선)

  • Jeon, Hae Sook;Lee, Won Don
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.1283-1293
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    • 2014
  • In ubiquitous environment, data are changing rapidly and new data is coming as times passes. And sometimes all of the past data will be lost if there is not sufficient space in memory. Therefore, there is a need to make rules and combine it with new data not to lose all the past data or to deal with large amounts of data. In making decision trees and extracting rules, the weight of each of rules is generally determined by the total number of the class at leaf. The computational problem of finding a minimum finite state acceptor compatible with given data is NP-hard. We assume that rules extracted are not correct and may have the loss of some information. Because of this precondition. this paper presents a new approach for refining rules. It controls their weight of rules of previous knowledge or data. In solving rule refinement, this paper tries to make a variety of rules with pruning method with majority and minority properties, control weight of each of rules and observe the change of performances. In this paper, the decision tree classifier with extended data expression having static weight is used for this proposed study. Experiments show that performances conducted with a new policy of refining rules may get better.

Data Cube Generation Method Using Hash Table in Spatial Data Warehouse (공간 데이터 웨어하우스에서 해쉬 테이블을 이용한 데이터큐브의 생성 기법)

  • Li, Yan;Kim, Hyung-Sun;You, Byeong-Seob;Lee, Jae-Dong;Bae, Hae-Young
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.9 no.11
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    • pp.1381-1394
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    • 2006
  • Generation methods of data cube have been studied for many years in data warehouse which supports decision making using stored data. There are two previous studies, one is multi-way array algorithm and the other is H-cubing algorithm which is based on the hyper-tree. The multi-way array algorithm stores all aggregation data in arrays, so if the base data is increased, the size of memory is also grow. The H-cubing algorithm which is based on the hyper-tree stores all tuples in one tree so the construction cost is increased. In this paper, we present an efficient data cube generation method based on hash table using weight mapping table and record hash table. Because the proposed method uses a hash table, the generation cost of data cube is decreased and the memory usage is also decreased. In the performance study, we shows that the proposed method provides faster search operation time and make data cube generation operate more efficiently.

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Ensemble of Nested Dichotomies for Activity Recognition Using Accelerometer Data on Smartphone (Ensemble of Nested Dichotomies 기법을 이용한 스마트폰 가속도 센서 데이터 기반의 동작 인지)

  • Ha, Eu Tteum;Kim, Jeongmin;Ryu, Kwang Ryel
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.123-132
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    • 2013
  • As the smartphones are equipped with various sensors such as the accelerometer, GPS, gravity sensor, gyros, ambient light sensor, proximity sensor, and so on, there have been many research works on making use of these sensors to create valuable applications. Human activity recognition is one such application that is motivated by various welfare applications such as the support for the elderly, measurement of calorie consumption, analysis of lifestyles, analysis of exercise patterns, and so on. One of the challenges faced when using the smartphone sensors for activity recognition is that the number of sensors used should be minimized to save the battery power. When the number of sensors used are restricted, it is difficult to realize a highly accurate activity recognizer or a classifier because it is hard to distinguish between subtly different activities relying on only limited information. The difficulty gets especially severe when the number of different activity classes to be distinguished is very large. In this paper, we show that a fairly accurate classifier can be built that can distinguish ten different activities by using only a single sensor data, i.e., the smartphone accelerometer data. The approach that we take to dealing with this ten-class problem is to use the ensemble of nested dichotomy (END) method that transforms a multi-class problem into multiple two-class problems. END builds a committee of binary classifiers in a nested fashion using a binary tree. At the root of the binary tree, the set of all the classes are split into two subsets of classes by using a binary classifier. At a child node of the tree, a subset of classes is again split into two smaller subsets by using another binary classifier. Continuing in this way, we can obtain a binary tree where each leaf node contains a single class. This binary tree can be viewed as a nested dichotomy that can make multi-class predictions. Depending on how a set of classes are split into two subsets at each node, the final tree that we obtain can be different. Since there can be some classes that are correlated, a particular tree may perform better than the others. However, we can hardly identify the best tree without deep domain knowledge. The END method copes with this problem by building multiple dichotomy trees randomly during learning, and then combining the predictions made by each tree during classification. The END method is generally known to perform well even when the base learner is unable to model complex decision boundaries As the base classifier at each node of the dichotomy, we have used another ensemble classifier called the random forest. A random forest is built by repeatedly generating a decision tree each time with a different random subset of features using a bootstrap sample. By combining bagging with random feature subset selection, a random forest enjoys the advantage of having more diverse ensemble members than a simple bagging. As an overall result, our ensemble of nested dichotomy can actually be seen as a committee of committees of decision trees that can deal with a multi-class problem with high accuracy. The ten classes of activities that we distinguish in this paper are 'Sitting', 'Standing', 'Walking', 'Running', 'Walking Uphill', 'Walking Downhill', 'Running Uphill', 'Running Downhill', 'Falling', and 'Hobbling'. The features used for classifying these activities include not only the magnitude of acceleration vector at each time point but also the maximum, the minimum, and the standard deviation of vector magnitude within a time window of the last 2 seconds, etc. For experiments to compare the performance of END with those of other methods, the accelerometer data has been collected at every 0.1 second for 2 minutes for each activity from 5 volunteers. Among these 5,900 ($=5{\times}(60{\times}2-2)/0.1$) data collected for each activity (the data for the first 2 seconds are trashed because they do not have time window data), 4,700 have been used for training and the rest for testing. Although 'Walking Uphill' is often confused with some other similar activities, END has been found to classify all of the ten activities with a fairly high accuracy of 98.4%. On the other hand, the accuracies achieved by a decision tree, a k-nearest neighbor, and a one-versus-rest support vector machine have been observed as 97.6%, 96.5%, and 97.6%, respectively.

Annotation Method for Reliable Video Data (신뢰성 영상자료를 위한 어노테이션 기법)

  • Yun-Hee Kang;Taeun Kwon
    • Journal of Platform Technology
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.77-84
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    • 2024
  • With the recent increase in the use of artificial intelligence, AI TRiSM data management within organizations has become important, and thus securing data reliability has emerged as an essential requirement for data-based decision-making. Digital content is transmitted through the unreliable Internet to the cloud where the digital content storage is located, then used in various applications. When detecting anomaly of data, it is difficult to provide a function to check content modification due to its damage in digital content systems. In this paper, we design a technique to guarantee the reliability of video data by expanding the function of data annotation. The designed annotation technique constitutes a prototype based on gRPC to handle a request and a response in a webUI that generates classification label and Merkle tree of given video data.

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Tree-Based Conversational Interface Supporting Efficient Presentation of Turn Relations (응답 관계의 효율적인 프레젠테이션을 지원하는 트리 기반 대화 인터페이스)

  • 김경덕
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.377-387
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    • 2004
  • This paper describes a tree-based conversational interface supporting efficient presentation of turn relations on online conversation. Most of conventional conversational interfaces are difficult to make use of formal conversation such as group meeting, decision-making, etc. due to very simplicity of a con versational interface and restriction of data structure of conversational messages. And a tree-based conversational interface supports formal conversation, but they are difficult to present turn relations because of jumpy display by locations of replied turns and distance between replied turns, etc. So this paper suggests a tree-based conversational interface to present efficiently turn relations using XML-based messages with merits of a text-based interface. The suggested conversational interface was implemented by using XML-, DOM, and JDK. And this paper showed that the conversational interface could be applied to conversation system using client- server architecture. Applications for the conversational interface are as follows: collaboration, distance teaming, online game, etc.

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Analysis and Detection Method for Line-shaped Echoes using Support Vector Machine (Support Vector Machine을 이용한 선에코 특성 분석 및 탐지 방법)

  • Lee, Hansoo;Kim, Eun Kyeong;Kim, Sungshin
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.665-670
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    • 2014
  • A SVM is a kind of binary classifier in order to find optimal hyperplane which separates training data into two groups. Due to its remarkable performance, the SVM is applied in various fields such as inductive inference, binary classification or making predictions. Also it is a representative black box model; there are plenty of actively discussed researches about analyzing trained SVM classifier. This paper conducts a study on a method that is automatically detecting the line-shaped echoes, sun strobe echo and radial interference echo, using the SVM algorithm because the line-shaped echoes appear relatively often and disturb weather forecasting process. Using a spatial clustering method and corrected reflectivity data in the weather radar, the training data is made up with mean reflectivity, size, appearance, centroid altitude and so forth. With actual occurrence cases of the line-shaped echoes, the trained SVM classifier is verified, and analyzed its characteristics using the decision tree method.

A Study on Sensor Data Analysis and Product Defect Improvement for Smart Factory (스마트 팩토리를 위한 센서 데이터 분석과 제품 불량 개선 연구)

  • Hwang, Sewong;Kim, Jonghyuk;Hwangbo, Hyunwoo
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.95-103
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    • 2018
  • In recent years, many people in the manufacturing field have been making efforts to increase efficiency while analyzing manufacturing data generated in the process according to the development of ICT technology. In this study, we propose a data mining based manufacturing process using decision tree algorithm (CHAID) as part of a smart factory. We used 432 sensor data from actual manufacturing plant collected for about 5 months to find out the variables that show a significant difference between the stable process period with low defect rate and the unstable process period with high defect rate. We set the range of the stable value of the variable to determine whether the selected final variable actually has an effect on the defect rate improvement. In addition, we measured the effect of the defect rate improvement by adjusting the process set-point so that the sensor did not deviate from the stable value range in the 14 day process. Through this, we expect to be able to provide empirical guidelines to improve the defect rate by utilizing and analyzing the process sensor data generated in the manufacturing industry.

a Study on Using Social Big Data for Expanding Analytical Knowledge - Domestic Big Data supply-demand expectation - (분석지의 확장을 위한 소셜 빅데이터 활용연구 - 국내 '빅데이터' 수요공급 예측 -)

  • Kim, Jung-Sun;Kwon, Eun-Ju;Song, Tae-Min
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.169-188
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    • 2014
  • Big data seems to change knowledge management system and method of enterprises to large extent. Further, the type of method for utilization of unstructured data including image, v ideo, sensor data a nd text may determine the decision on expansion of knowledge management of the enterprise or government. This paper, in this light, attempts to figure out the prediction model of demands and supply for big data market of Korea trough data mining decision making tree by utilizing text bit data generated for 3 years on web and SNS for expansion of form for knowledge management. The results indicate that the market focused on H/W and storage leading by the government is big data market of Korea. Further, the demanders of big data have been found to put important on attribute factors including interest, quickness and economics. Meanwhile, innovation and growth have been found to be the attribute factors onto which the supplier puts importance. The results of this research show that the factors affect acceptance of big data technology differ for supplier and demander. This article may provide basic method for study on expansion of analysis form of enterprise and connection with its management activities.

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Agriculture Big Data Analysis System Based on Korean Market Information

  • Chuluunsaikhan, Tserenpurev;Song, Jin-Hyun;Yoo, Kwan-Hee;Rah, Hyung-Chul;Nasridinov, Aziz
    • Journal of Multimedia Information System
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.217-224
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    • 2019
  • As the world's population grows, how to maintain the food supply is becoming a bigger problem. Now and in the future, big data will play a major role in decision making in the agriculture industry. The challenge is how to obtain valuable information to help us make future decisions. Big data helps us to see history clearer, to obtain hidden values, and make the right decisions for the government and farmers. To contribute to solving this challenge, we developed the Agriculture Big Data Analysis System. The system consists of agricultural big data collection, big data analysis, and big data visualization. First, we collected structured data like price, climate, yield, etc., and unstructured data, such as news, blogs, TV programs, etc. Using the data that we collected, we implement prediction algorithms like ARIMA, Decision Tree, LDA, and LSTM to show the results in data visualizations.