• Title/Summary/Keyword: Data-based model

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Relationship between Brand Personality and the Personality of Consumers, and its Application to Corporate Branding Strategy

  • Kim, Young-Ei;Lee, Jung-Wan;Lee, Yong-Ki
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.27-57
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    • 2008
  • Many consumers enjoy the challenge of purchasing a brand that matches well with their own values and personalities (for example, Ko et al., 2008; Ko et al., 2006). Therefore, the personalities of consumers can impact on the final selection of a brand and its brand personality in two ways: first, the consumers may incline to purchase a brand or a product that reflects their own personalities; second, consumers tend to choose a company that has similar brand personalities to those brands that are being promoted. Therefore, the objectives of this study are following: 1. Is there any empirical relationship between a consumer's personality and the personality of a brand that he or she chooses? 2. Can a corporate brand be differentiated by the brand personality? In short, consumers are more likely to hold favorable attitudes towards those brands that match their own personality and will most probably purchase those brands matching well with their personality. For example, Matzler et al. (2006) found that extraversion and openness were positively related to hedonic product value; and that the personality traits directly (openness) and indirectly (extraversion, via hedonic value) influenced brand effects, which in turn droved attitudinal and purchase loyalty. Based on the above discussion, the following hypotheses are proposed: Hypothesis 1: the personality of a consumer is related to the brand personality of a product/corporate that he/she purchases. Kuksov (2007) and Wernerfelt (1990) argued that brands as a symbolic language allowed consumers to communicate their types to each other and postulated that consumers had a certain value of communicating their types to each other. Therefore, how brand meanings are established, and how a firm communicate with consumers about the meanings of the brand are interesting topics for research (for example, Escalas and Bettman, 2005; McCracken, 1989; Moon, 2007). Hence, the following hypothesis is proposed: Hypothesis 2: A corporate brand identity is differentiated by the brand personality. And there are significant differences among companies. A questionnaire was developed for collecting empirical measures of the Big-Five personality traits and brand personality variables. A survey was conducted to the online access panel members through the Internet during December 2007 in Korea. In total, 500 respondents completed the questionnaire, and considered as useable. Personality constructs were measured using the Five-factor Inventory (NEO-FFI) scale and a total of 30 items were actually utilized. Brand personality was measured using the five-dimension scale developed by Aaker (1997). A total of 17 items were actually utilized. The seven-point Likert-type scale was the format of responses, for example, from 1 indicating strongly disagreed to 7 for strongly agreed. The Analysis of Moment Structures (AMOS) was used for an empirical testing of the model, and the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) was applied to estimate numerical values for the components in the model. To diagnose the presence of distribution problems in the data and to gauge their effects on the parameter estimates, bootstapping method was used. The results of the hypothesis-1 test empirically show that there exit certain causality relationship between a consumer's personality and the brand personality of the consumer's choice. Thus, the consumer's personality has an impact on consumer's final selection of a brand that has a brand personality matches well with their own personalities. In other words, the consumers are inclined to purchase a brand that reflects their own personalities and tend to choose a company that has similar brand personalities to those of the brand being promoted. The results of this study further suggest that certain dimensions of the brand personality cause consumers to have preference to certain (corporate) brands. For example, the conscientiousness, neuroticism, and extraversion of the consumer personality have positively related to a selection of "ruggedness" characteristics of the brand personality. Consumers who possess that personality dimension seek for matching with certain brand personality dimensions. Results of the hypothesis-2 test show that the average "ruggedness" attributes of the brand personality differ significantly among Korean automobile manufacturers. However, the result of ANOVA also indicates that there are no significant differences in the mean values among manufacturers for the "sophistication," "excitement," "competence" and "sincerity" attributes of the corporate brand personality. The tight link between what a firm is and its corporate brand means that there is far less room for marketing communications than there is with products and brands. Consequently, successful corporate brand strategies must position the organization within the boundaries of what is acceptable, while at the same time differentiating the organization from its competitors.

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Geoacoustic characteristics of Quaternary stratigraphic sequences in the mid-eastern Yellow Sea (황해 중동부 제4기 퇴적층의 지음향 특성)

  • Jin, Jae-Hwa;Jang, Seong-Hyeong;Kim, Seong-Pil;Kim, Hyeon-Tae;Lee, Chi-Won;Chang, Jeong-Hae;Choi, Jin-Hyeok;Ryang, Woo-Heon
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.81-92
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    • 2001
  • According to analyses of high-resolution seismic profiles (air gun, sparker, and SBP) and a deep-drill core(YSDP 105) in the mid-eastern Yellow Sea, stratigraphic and geoacoustic models have been established and seismo-acoustic modeling has been fulfilled using ray tracing of finite element method. Stratigraphic model reflects seismo-, litho-, and chrono-stratigraphic sequences formed under a significant influence of Quaternary glacio-eustatic sea-level fluctuations. Each sequence consists of terrestrial to very-shallow-marine coarse-grained lowstand systems tract and tidal fine-grained transgressive to highstand systems tract. Based on mean grain-size data (121 samples) of the drill core, bulk density and P-wave velocity of depositional units have been inferred and extrapolated down to a depth of the recovery using the Hamilton's regression equations. As goo-acoustic parameters, the 121 pairs of bulk density and P-wave velocity have been averaged on each unit of the stratigraphic model. As a result of computer ray-tracing simulation of the subsurface strata, we have found that there are complex ray paths and many acoustic-shadow zones owing to the presence of irregular layer boundaries and low-velocity layers.

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A PLS Path Modeling Approach on the Cause-and-Effect Relationships among BSC Critical Success Factors for IT Organizations (PLS 경로모형을 이용한 IT 조직의 BSC 성공요인간의 인과관계 분석)

  • Lee, Jung-Hoon;Shin, Taek-Soo;Lim, Jong-Ho
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.207-228
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    • 2007
  • Measuring Information Technology(IT) organizations' activities have been limited to mainly measure financial indicators for a long time. However, according to the multifarious functions of Information System, a number of researches have been done for the new trends on measurement methodologies that come with financial measurement as well as new measurement methods. Especially, the researches on IT Balanced Scorecard(BSC), concept from BSC measuring IT activities have been done as well in recent years. BSC provides more advantages than only integration of non-financial measures in a performance measurement system. The core of BSC rests on the cause-and-effect relationships between measures to allow prediction of value chain performance measures to allow prediction of value chain performance measures, communication, and realization of the corporate strategy and incentive controlled actions. More recently, BSC proponents have focused on the need to tie measures together into a causal chain of performance, and to test the validity of these hypothesized effects to guide the development of strategy. Kaplan and Norton[2001] argue that one of the primary benefits of the balanced scorecard is its use in gauging the success of strategy. Norreklit[2000] insist that the cause-and-effect chain is central to the balanced scorecard. The cause-and-effect chain is also central to the IT BSC. However, prior researches on relationship between information system and enterprise strategies as well as connection between various IT performance measurement indicators are not so much studied. Ittner et al.[2003] report that 77% of all surveyed companies with an implemented BSC place no or only little interest on soundly modeled cause-and-effect relationships despite of the importance of cause-and-effect chains as an integral part of BSC. This shortcoming can be explained with one theoretical and one practical reason[Blumenberg and Hinz, 2006]. From a theoretical point of view, causalities within the BSC method and their application are only vaguely described by Kaplan and Norton. From a practical consideration, modeling corporate causalities is a complex task due to tedious data acquisition and following reliability maintenance. However, cause-and effect relationships are an essential part of BSCs because they differentiate performance measurement systems like BSCs from simple key performance indicator(KPI) lists. KPI lists present an ad-hoc collection of measures to managers but do not allow for a comprehensive view on corporate performance. Instead, performance measurement system like BSCs tries to model the relationships of the underlying value chain in cause-and-effect relationships. Therefore, to overcome the deficiencies of causal modeling in IT BSC, sound and robust causal modeling approaches are required in theory as well as in practice for offering a solution. The propose of this study is to suggest critical success factors(CSFs) and KPIs for measuring performance for IT organizations and empirically validate the casual relationships between those CSFs. For this purpose, we define four perspectives of BSC for IT organizations according to Van Grembergen's study[2000] as follows. The Future Orientation perspective represents the human and technology resources needed by IT to deliver its services. The Operational Excellence perspective represents the IT processes employed to develop and deliver the applications. The User Orientation perspective represents the user evaluation of IT. The Business Contribution perspective captures the business value of the IT investments. Each of these perspectives has to be translated into corresponding metrics and measures that assess the current situations. This study suggests 12 CSFs for IT BSC based on the previous IT BSC's studies and COBIT 4.1. These CSFs consist of 51 KPIs. We defines the cause-and-effect relationships among BSC CSFs for IT Organizations as follows. The Future Orientation perspective will have positive effects on the Operational Excellence perspective. Then the Operational Excellence perspective will have positive effects on the User Orientation perspective. Finally, the User Orientation perspective will have positive effects on the Business Contribution perspective. This research tests the validity of these hypothesized casual effects and the sub-hypothesized causal relationships. For the purpose, we used the Partial Least Squares approach to Structural Equation Modeling(or PLS Path Modeling) for analyzing multiple IT BSC CSFs. The PLS path modeling has special abilities that make it more appropriate than other techniques, such as multiple regression and LISREL, when analyzing small sample sizes. Recently the use of PLS path modeling has been gaining interests and use among IS researchers in recent years because of its ability to model latent constructs under conditions of nonormality and with small to medium sample sizes(Chin et al., 2003). The empirical results of our study using PLS path modeling show that the casual effects in IT BSC significantly exist partially in our hypotheses.

Importance of End User's Feedback Seeking Behavior for Faithful Appropriation of Information Systems in Small and Medium Enterprises (중소기업 환경에서의 합목적적 정보시스템 활용을 위한 최종사용자 피드백 탐색행위의 중요성)

  • Shin, Young-Mee;Lee, Joo-Ryang;Lee, Ho-Geun
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.61-95
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    • 2007
  • Small-and-medium sized enterprises(SMEs) represent quite a large proportion of the industry as a whole in terms of the number of enterprises or employees. However researches on information system so far have focused on large companies, probably because SMEs were not so active in introducing information systems as larger enterprises. SMEs are now increasingly bringing in information systems such as ERP(Enterprise Resource Planning Systems) and some of the companies already entered the stage of ongoing use. Accordingly, researches should deal with the use of information systems by SME s operating under different conditions from large companies. This study examined factors and mechanism inducing faithful appropriation of information systems, in particular integrative systems such as ERP, in view of individuals` active feedback-seeking behavior. There are three factors expected to affect end users` feedback-seeking behavior for faithful appropriation of information systems. They are management support, peer IT champ support, and IT staff support. The main focus of the study is on how these factors affect feedback-seeking behavior and whether the feedback-seeking behavior plays the role of mediator for realizing faithful appropriation of information systems by end users. To examine the research model and the hypotheses, this study employed an empirical method based on a field survey. The survey used measurements mostly employed and verified by previous researches, while some of the measurements had gone through minor modifications for the purpose of the study. The survey respondents are individual employees of SMEs that have been using ERP for one year or longer. To prevent common method bias, Task-Technology Fit items used as the control variable were made to be answered by different respondents. In total, 127 pairs of valid questionnaires were collected and used for the analysis. The PLS(Partial Least Squares) approach to structural equation modeling(PLS-Graph v.3.0) was used as our data analysis strategy because of its ability to model both formative and reflective latent constructs under small-and medium-size samples. The analysis shows Reliability, Construct Validity and Discriminant Validity are appropriate. The path analysis results are as follows; first, the more there is peer IT champ support, the more the end user is likely to show feedback-seeking behavior(path-coefficient=0.230, t=2.28, p<0.05). In other words, if colleagues proficient in information system use recognize the importance of their help, pass on what they have found to be an effective way of using the system or correct others' misuse, ordinary end users will be able to seek feedback on the faithfulness of their appropriation of information system without hesitation, because they know the convenience of getting help. Second, management support encourages ordinary end users to seek more feedback(path-coefficient=0.271, t=3.06, p<0.01) by affecting the end users' perceived value of feedback(path-coefficient=0.401, t=6.01, p<0.01). Management support is far more influential than other factors that when the management of an SME well understands the benefit of ERP, promotes its faithful appropriation and pays attention to employees' satisfaction with the system, employees will make deliberate efforts for faithful appropriation of the system. However, the third factor, IT staff support was found not to be conducive to feedback-seeking behavior from end users(path-coefficient=0.174, t=1.83). This is partly attributable to the fundamental reason that there is little support for end users from IT staff in SMEs. Even when IT staff provides support, end users may find it less important than that from coworkers more familiar with the end users' job. Meanwhile, the more end users seek feedback and attempt to find ways of faithful appropriation of information systems, the more likely the users will be able to deploy the system according to the purpose the system was originally meant for(path-coefficient=0.35, t=2.88, p<0.01). Finally, the mediation effect analysis confirmed the mediation effect of feedback-seeking behavior. By confirming the mediation effect of feedback-seeking behavior, this study draws attention to the importance of feedback-seeking behavior that has long been overlooked in research about information system use. This study also explores the factors that promote feedback-seeking behavior which in result could affect end user`s faithful appropriation of information systems. In addition, this study provides insight about which inducements or resources SMEs should offer to promote individual users' feedback-seeking behavior when formal and sufficient support from IT staff or an outside information system provider is hardly expected. As the study results show, under the business environment of SMEs, help from skilled colleagues and the management plays a critical role. Therefore, SMEs should seriously consider how to utilize skilled peer information system users, while the management should pay keen attention to end users and support them to make the most of information systems.

Fund Flow and Market Risk (펀드플로우와 시장위험)

  • Chung, Hyo-Youn;Park, Jong-Won
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.169-204
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    • 2010
  • This paper examines the dynamic relationship between fund flow and market risk at the aggregate level and explores whether sudden sharp changes in fund flow (fund run) can cause a systemic risk in the Korean financial markets. We use daily and weekly data and regression and VAR analysis. Main results of the paper are as follows: First, in the stock market, a concurrent and a lagged unexpected fund flows have a positive relationship with market volatility. A positive shock in fund flow predicts an increase in stock market volatility. In the bond market, an unexpected fund flow has a negative relationship with the default risk premium, but a positive relationship with the term premium. And an unexpected fund flow of the money market fund has a negative relationship with the liquidy risk, but the explanatory power is very low. Second, for examining whether changes in fund flow induce a systemic risk, we construct a spillover index based on the forecast error variance decomposition of VAR model. A spillover index represents that how much the shock in fund flow can explain the change of market risk in a market. In general, explanatory powers from spillover indexes are so fluctuant and low. In the stock market, the impact of shocks in fund flow on market risk is relatively high and persistent during the period from the end of 2007 to 2008, which is the subprime-mortgage crisis period. In bond market, since the end of 2008, the impact of shocks in fund flow spreads to default risk continually, while in the money market, such a systematic effect doesn't take place. The persistent patterns of spillover effect appearing around a certain period in the stock market and the bond market suggest that the shock to the unexpected fund flow may increase the market risk and can be a cause of systemic risk in the financial markets. However, summarizing the results of regression and VAR model analysis, and considering the very low explanatory power of spillover index analysis, we can conclude that changes in fund flow have a very limited power in explaining changes in market risk and it is not very likely to induce the systemic risk by a fund run in the Korean financial markets.

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A Study on the Relationship between Adolescent Misconducts and Harmful Environment Based on Health Belief Model (건강신념모델을 적용한 청소년 비행과 유해환경과의 관련성 연구)

  • 이명선
    • Korean Journal of Health Education and Promotion
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.37-58
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    • 2001
  • This study placed its objectives in suggesting the basic data for setting up an approach to protect the educational environment, by analyzing the relevance between the misconducts of adolescence and the harmful environment around the school, as an object of study, middle school students and high school students all over the country. Thus, this study carried out the questionnaire survey, by the multi-stage of stratified sampling in 2,114 middle school and high school students from June 29, 2000 through July 29, 2000. And the results of analysis were as follows: 1. In case of the ratio of students using harmful environment, the electronic game room had the highest ratio (78.3%); next, the PC room (75.6%), the singing room (71.6%), and the cartoon room (34.3%). 2. In terms of the experiences of using the harmful environment according to the personal characteristics, high school students used it in a higher ratio, compared with middle school students (p〈0.001); the students, whose father graduated from a high school, comparatively used it much more(p〈0.05). Also, when a school is located near to amusement quarters or shopping centers, students used the harmful environment most highly (p〈0.001). And the differences were found to be statistically significant. 3. In case of the perceived susceptibility factors, the harmful environment was found to be used in lower ratio, by the students who answered “very so” to the question item, The more harmful environment facilities are positioned around school, the more student have the opportunities to use them. (p〈0.001). That is, the findings showed that the higher students' degree of perceived susceptibility factors was the less students used harmful environment facilities. The differences were statistically significant. In terms of the ratio of using harmful environment according to perceived seriousness factors, it was founded out that the students, who answered, “If I use any harmful environment facilities, it will be very harmful to myself.”. had the less opportunities of having used them, compared with the students who did not answer so (p〈0.001). This indicated that the higher the degrees perceived seriousness of students, the less they used harmful environment facilities. And the differences were statistically significant. In the side of the ratio of using harmful environment according to the perceived barriers, it was found out that there were any special large differences. That is, perceived barriers had nothing to do with students' using harmful environment. 4. As the result of having analyzed the factors influencing the behaviors of using harmful environment, the factor to explain the behaviors of using harmful environment was found to be the degree of perceived seriousness, among individual perceiving factors; next, the location of a school - one of personal characteristics, the degree of perceived susceptibility and ages, m sequence. 5. Among students' misconduct experiences, drinking was highest (21.6%), next, smoking (11.9%), drug abuse (4.3%), and sexual relations (1.6%), In sequence. Among other problematic behaviors, excessive waste was highest (14.6%); next, disobedience and lie (10.7%), night wandering (7.8%), and bad dressing and making-up (5.5%), in sequence. 6. In terms of the misconducts according to the behaviors of using harmful environment, compared with the students who did not commit any misconducts, harmful environment facilities were used more highly, by each group of students who experienced drinking (p〈0.00l), smoking (p〈0.001), sexual relations (p〈0.05), excessive waste (p〈0.001), disobedience & lie (p〈0.001), and bad dressing & making-up (p〈0.05). And the differences were statistically significant.

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Stock Assessment and Management Implications of Small Yellow Croker in Korean Waters (한국 근해 참조기의 자원평가 및 관리방안)

  • ZHANG Chang Ik;KIM Suam;YOON Seong-Bong
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.282-290
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    • 1992
  • Based on surplus production models using fishery data for the last 20 years, a stock assessment was conducted for the small yellow croaker in Korean waters. The maximum sustainable yields (MSY) from the Schaefer and Fox models were estimated to be 37,000 metric tons (mt) and 33,450 mt. Zhang's model using time-series biomass with instantaneous coefficients of fishing mortality (F) and using time-series biomass and catch yielded MSY estimates of 45,328 mt and 40,160 mt, respectively. A yield-per-recruit analysis showed that the current yield per recruit of about 20g with F= 1.11 $yr^{-l}$, where the age at first capture $(t_c)$ is 0.604, was much lower than the maximum possible yield per recruit of 43g. Fixing $t_c$ at the current level and reducing fishing intensity (F) from 1.11 $yr^{-l}$ to 0.4 $yr^{-l}$ yielded only a small increase in predicted yield per recruit, from 20 to 25g. However, estimated yield per recruit increased to 43g by increasing $(t_c)$ from the current age (0.604) to age three with F fixed at the current level. This age at first capture corresponded to the optimal length which was obtained from the $F_{0.1}$ method. According to the analysis of stock recovery strategies employing the Zhang model, the optimum equilibrium biomass $(B^*_{MSY})$ which produces the maximum yield could be achieved after approximately five years at the lower fishing intensity (F=0.5).

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Determination of Flood Reduction Alternatives for responding to climate change in Gyeongan Watershed (기후변화 대응을 위한 경안천 유역의 홍수저감 대안 선정)

  • Han, Daegun;Choi, Changhyun;Kim, Duckhwan;Jung, Jaewon;Kim, Jungwook;Kim, Soo Jun
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.154-165
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    • 2016
  • Recently, the frequency of extreme rainfall event has increased due to climate change and impermeable area also has increased due to rapid urbanization. Therefore, we ought to prepare countermeasures for flood reduction to reduce the damage. To consider climate change, the frequency based rainfall was calculated according to the aimed period(reference : 1971~2010, Target period I : 2011~2040, Target period II : 2041~2070, Target period III : 2071~2100) and the flood discharge was also calculated by climate change using HEC-HMS model. Also, the flood elevation was calculated by each alternative through HEC-RAS model, setting 5 sizes of drainage pumps and reservoirs respectively. The flood map was constructed using topographical data and flood elevation, and the economic analysis was conducted for reduction of flood damage using Multi dimension - Flood Damage Analysis, MD-FDA. As a result of the analysis on the flood control effect, a head of drainage pump was reduced by 0.06m up to 0.44m while it was reduced by 0.01m up to 1.86m in the case of a detention pond. The flooded area shrunk by up to 32.64% from 0.3% and inundation depth also dropped. As a result of a comparison of the Benefit/Cost index estimated by the economic analysis, detention pond E in period I and pump D in period II and III were deemed appropriate as an alternative for climate change. The results are expected to be used as good practices when implementing the flood control works considering climate change.

Comparison of Radiation Dose in the Measurement of MDCT Radiation Dose according to Correction of Temperatures and Pressure, and Calibration of Ionization Chamber (MDCT 선량측정에서 온도와 압력에 따른 보정과 Ionization Chamber의 Calibration 전후 선량의 비교평가)

  • Lee, Chang-Lae;Kim, Hee-Joung;Jeon, Seong-Su;Cho, Hyo-Min;Nam, So-Ra;Jung, Ji-Young;Lee, Young-Jin;Lee, Seung-Jae;Dong, Kyung-Rae
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.49-55
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    • 2008
  • This study aims to conduct the comparative analysis of the radiation dose according to before and after the calibration of the ionization chamber used for measuring radiation dose in the MDCT, as well as of $CTDI_w$ according to temperature and pressure correction factors in the CT room. A comparative analysis was conducted based on the measured MDCT (GE light speed plus 4 slice, USA) data using head and body CT dosimetric phantom, and Model 2026C electrometer (RADICAL 2026C, USA) calibrated on March 21, 2007. As a result, the $CTDI_w$ value which reflected calibration factors, as well as correction factors of temperature and pressure, was found to be the range of $0.479{\sim}3.162mGy$ in effective radiation dose than the uncorrected values. Also, under the routine abdomen routine CT image acquisition conditions used in reference hospitals, patient effective dose was measured to indicate the difference of the maximum of 0.7 mSv between before and after the application of such factors. These results imply that the calibration of the ion chamber, and the correction of temperature and pressure of the CT room are crucial in measuring and calculating patient effective dose. Thus, to measure patient radiation dose accurately, the detailed information should be made available regarding not only the temperature and pressure of the CT room, but also the humidity and recombination factor, characteristics of X-ray beam quality, exposure conditions, scan region, and so forth.

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The Analysis of Successional Trends by Topographic Positions in the Natural Deciduous Forest of Mt. Chumbong (점봉산(點鳳産) 일대 천연활엽수림(天然闊葉樹林)의 지형적(地形的) 위치(位置)에 따른 천이(遷移) 경향(傾向) 분석(分析))

  • Lee, Won Sup;Kim, Ji Hong;Jin, Guang Ze
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.89 no.5
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    • pp.655-665
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    • 2000
  • Taking account of the structural variation on species composition by topography, the successional trends were comparatively analyzed for the three topographic positions (valley, mid-slope, and ridge) in the natural deciduous forest of Mt. Chumbong area. The analysis was based upon the subsequent process of generation replacement by understory saplings and seedlings over the overstory trees which will be eventually fallen down. This study adopted the plot sampling method, establishing twenty $20m{\times}20m$ quadrats and collecting vegetation and site data on each different topographic position. The transition matrix model, which was modified from the mathematical theory of Markov chain, was employed to analyze the successional trends and thereafter to predict the overstory species composition in the future for each different topographic position. In valley, the simulation indicated the remarkable decrease in the proportion of species composition of present dominants Quercus mongolica and Fraxinus mandshurica from current 23% and 21% to around 4% of each at the steady state, which is predicted to take less than 200 years. On the other hand, the proportion of such species as Abies holophylla, Acer mono, Tilia amurensis, and Ulmus laciniata will increase at the steady state. In mid-slope, the result showed the remarkable decrease in the proportion of Juglans mandshurica, Kalopanax pictus, and Tilia amurensis from current 15%, 8%, and 15% to 2%, 1%, and 5%, respectively, at steady state predicted to take more than 250 years. In ridge, the current dominant Quercus mongolica was predicted to be decreased dramatically from 58% to 8% at steady state which could be achieved about 200 years. On the contrary, the proportion of Acer mono and Tilia amurensis will be increased from current 4% and 3% to more than 20% and 40%, respectively, at the steady state. Overall results suggested that the study forest is more likely seral rather than climax community. Even though a lot of variation is inevitable due to various kinds of site and vegetation development, the study forest is considered to be more than 200 years away from the steady state or climax in terms of overstory species composition.

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