• Title/Summary/Keyword: Dangerous Area Prediction

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Future Prediction of Heat and Discomfort Indices based on two RCP Scenarios (기후변화 대응을 위한 RCP 시나리오 기반 국내 열지수와 불쾌지수 예측)

  • Lee, Suji;Kwon, Bo Yeon;Jung, Deaho;Jo, Kyunghee;Kim, Munseok;Ha, Seungmok;Kim, Heona;Kim, Byul Nim;Masud, M.A.;Lee, Eunil;Kim, Yongkuk
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.221-229
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    • 2013
  • There has been an increasing need to assess the effects of climate change on human health. It is hard to use climate data to evaluate health effects because such data have a grid format, which could not represent specific cities or provinces. Therefore, the grid-format climate data of South Korea based on RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios were modified into area-format climate data according to the major cities or provinces of the country, up to the year 2100. Moreover, heat index (HI) and discomfort index (DI) databases were developed from the modified climate database. These databases will soon be available for experts via a Website, and the expected HI and DI of any place in the country, or at any time, can be found in the country's climate homepage (http://www.climate.go.kr). The HI and DI were analyzed by plotting the average indices every ten years, and by comparing cities or provinces with index level changes, using the geographic information system (GIS). Both the HI and DI are expected to continually increase from 2011 to 2100, and to reach the most dangerous level especially in August 2100. Among the major cities of South Korea, Gwangju showed the highest HI and DI, and Gangwon province is expected to be the least affected area in terms of HI and DI among all the country's provinces.

Bankruptcy Forecasting Model using AdaBoost: A Focus on Construction Companies (적응형 부스팅을 이용한 파산 예측 모형: 건설업을 중심으로)

  • Heo, Junyoung;Yang, Jin Yong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.35-48
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    • 2014
  • According to the 2013 construction market outlook report, the liquidation of construction companies is expected to continue due to the ongoing residential construction recession. Bankruptcies of construction companies have a greater social impact compared to other industries. However, due to the different nature of the capital structure and debt-to-equity ratio, it is more difficult to forecast construction companies' bankruptcies than that of companies in other industries. The construction industry operates on greater leverage, with high debt-to-equity ratios, and project cash flow focused on the second half. The economic cycle greatly influences construction companies. Therefore, downturns tend to rapidly increase the bankruptcy rates of construction companies. High leverage, coupled with increased bankruptcy rates, could lead to greater burdens on banks providing loans to construction companies. Nevertheless, the bankruptcy prediction model concentrated mainly on financial institutions, with rare construction-specific studies. The bankruptcy prediction model based on corporate finance data has been studied for some time in various ways. However, the model is intended for all companies in general, and it may not be appropriate for forecasting bankruptcies of construction companies, who typically have high liquidity risks. The construction industry is capital-intensive, operates on long timelines with large-scale investment projects, and has comparatively longer payback periods than in other industries. With its unique capital structure, it can be difficult to apply a model used to judge the financial risk of companies in general to those in the construction industry. Diverse studies of bankruptcy forecasting models based on a company's financial statements have been conducted for many years. The subjects of the model, however, were general firms, and the models may not be proper for accurately forecasting companies with disproportionately large liquidity risks, such as construction companies. The construction industry is capital-intensive, requiring significant investments in long-term projects, therefore to realize returns from the investment. The unique capital structure means that the same criteria used for other industries cannot be applied to effectively evaluate financial risk for construction firms. Altman Z-score was first published in 1968, and is commonly used as a bankruptcy forecasting model. It forecasts the likelihood of a company going bankrupt by using a simple formula, classifying the results into three categories, and evaluating the corporate status as dangerous, moderate, or safe. When a company falls into the "dangerous" category, it has a high likelihood of bankruptcy within two years, while those in the "safe" category have a low likelihood of bankruptcy. For companies in the "moderate" category, it is difficult to forecast the risk. Many of the construction firm cases in this study fell in the "moderate" category, which made it difficult to forecast their risk. Along with the development of machine learning using computers, recent studies of corporate bankruptcy forecasting have used this technology. Pattern recognition, a representative application area in machine learning, is applied to forecasting corporate bankruptcy, with patterns analyzed based on a company's financial information, and then judged as to whether the pattern belongs to the bankruptcy risk group or the safe group. The representative machine learning models previously used in bankruptcy forecasting are Artificial Neural Networks, Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) and, the Support Vector Machine (SVM). There are also many hybrid studies combining these models. Existing studies using the traditional Z-Score technique or bankruptcy prediction using machine learning focus on companies in non-specific industries. Therefore, the industry-specific characteristics of companies are not considered. In this paper, we confirm that adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) is the most appropriate forecasting model for construction companies by based on company size. We classified construction companies into three groups - large, medium, and small based on the company's capital. We analyzed the predictive ability of AdaBoost for each group of companies. The experimental results showed that AdaBoost has more predictive ability than the other models, especially for the group of large companies with capital of more than 50 billion won.

Unity3D-Based Flood Simulation Visualization Web System for Efficient Disaster Management (효과적인 재난관리를 위한 Unity3D 기반 홍수 시뮬레이션 가시화 웹시스템)

  • GANG, Su-Myung;RYU, Dong-Ha;CHOI, Yeong-Cheol;CHOUNG, Yun-Jae
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.98-112
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    • 2017
  • Recently, various research has been conducted on the use of a game engine instead of a commercial geographic information system (GIS) engine for the development of 3D GIS. The advantage of the 3D game engine is that it allows developers to develop various modules according to their abilities. In particular, in the area of disasters, a wide range of alternatives for prevention as well as prediction can be presented when new analyses are attempted by combining geographic information and disaster-related information. Furthermore, 3D analysis can be an important factor in analyzing the phenomena occurring in the real 3D world because of the nature of disasters. Therefore, in this study, we tried to develop a visualization module for flood disaster information through a 3D game engine by considering the solutions for cost and manpower problems and the degree of freedom of development. Raw flood data was mapped onto spatial information and interpolation was performed for the natural display of the mapped flood information. Furthermore, we developed a module that intuitively shows dangerous areas to users by generating cumulative information in order to display multidimensional information based on this information. The results of this study are expected to enable various flood information analyses as well as quick response and countermeasures to floods.