Atmosphere (대기)

Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
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Future Prediction of Heat and Discomfort Indices based on two RCP Scenarios

기후변화 대응을 위한 RCP 시나리오 기반 국내 열지수와 불쾌지수 예측

  • Lee, Suji (Department of Preventive Medicine, College of Medicine, Korea University) ;
  • Kwon, Bo Yeon (Department of Preventive Medicine, College of Medicine, Korea University) ;
  • Jung, Deaho (Department of Preventive Medicine, College of Medicine, Korea University) ;
  • Jo, Kyunghee (Department of Preventive Medicine, College of Medicine, Korea University) ;
  • Kim, Munseok (Department of Mathematics, Kyungpook National University) ;
  • Ha, Seungmok (Department of Mathematics, Kyungpook National University) ;
  • Kim, Heona (Department of Mathematics, Kyungpook National University) ;
  • Kim, Byul Nim (Department of Mathematics, Kyungpook National University) ;
  • Masud, M.A. (Department of Mathematics, Kyungpook National University) ;
  • Lee, Eunil (Department of Preventive Medicine, College of Medicine, Korea University) ;
  • Kim, Yongkuk (Department of Mathematics, Kyungpook National University)
  • 이수지 (고려대학교 의과대학 예방의학교실) ;
  • 권보연 (고려대학교 의과대학 예방의학교실) ;
  • 정대호 (고려대학교 의과대학 예방의학교실) ;
  • 조경희 (고려대학교 의과대학 예방의학교실) ;
  • 김문석 (경북대학교 수학과) ;
  • 하승목 (경북대학교 수학과) ;
  • 김현아 (경북대학교 수학과) ;
  • 김별님 (경북대학교 수학과) ;
  • ;
  • 이은일 (고려대학교 의과대학 예방의학교실) ;
  • 김용국 (경북대학교 수학과)
  • Received : 2012.12.17
  • Accepted : 2013.03.19
  • Published : 2013.06.30
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Abstract

There has been an increasing need to assess the effects of climate change on human health. It is hard to use climate data to evaluate health effects because such data have a grid format, which could not represent specific cities or provinces. Therefore, the grid-format climate data of South Korea based on RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios were modified into area-format climate data according to the major cities or provinces of the country, up to the year 2100. Moreover, heat index (HI) and discomfort index (DI) databases were developed from the modified climate database. These databases will soon be available for experts via a Website, and the expected HI and DI of any place in the country, or at any time, can be found in the country's climate homepage (http://www.climate.go.kr). The HI and DI were analyzed by plotting the average indices every ten years, and by comparing cities or provinces with index level changes, using the geographic information system (GIS). Both the HI and DI are expected to continually increase from 2011 to 2100, and to reach the most dangerous level especially in August 2100. Among the major cities of South Korea, Gwangju showed the highest HI and DI, and Gangwon province is expected to be the least affected area in terms of HI and DI among all the country's provinces.

Keywords

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