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A Hybrid Forecasting Framework based on Case-based Reasoning and Artificial Neural Network (사례기반 추론기법과 인공신경망을 이용한 서비스 수요예측 프레임워크)

  • Hwang, Yousub
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.43-57
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    • 2012
  • To enhance the competitive advantage in a constantly changing business environment, an enterprise management must make the right decision in many business activities based on both internal and external information. Thus, providing accurate information plays a prominent role in management's decision making. Intuitively, historical data can provide a feasible estimate through the forecasting models. Therefore, if the service department can estimate the service quantity for the next period, the service department can then effectively control the inventory of service related resources such as human, parts, and other facilities. In addition, the production department can make load map for improving its product quality. Therefore, obtaining an accurate service forecast most likely appears to be critical to manufacturing companies. Numerous investigations addressing this problem have generally employed statistical methods, such as regression or autoregressive and moving average simulation. However, these methods are only efficient for data with are seasonal or cyclical. If the data are influenced by the special characteristics of product, they are not feasible. In our research, we propose a forecasting framework that predicts service demand of manufacturing organization by combining Case-based reasoning (CBR) and leveraging an unsupervised artificial neural network based clustering analysis (i.e., Self-Organizing Maps; SOM). We believe that this is one of the first attempts at applying unsupervised artificial neural network-based machine-learning techniques in the service forecasting domain. Our proposed approach has several appealing features : (1) We applied CBR and SOM in a new forecasting domain such as service demand forecasting. (2) We proposed our combined approach between CBR and SOM in order to overcome limitations of traditional statistical forecasting methods and We have developed a service forecasting tool based on the proposed approach using an unsupervised artificial neural network and Case-based reasoning. In this research, we conducted an empirical study on a real digital TV manufacturer (i.e., Company A). In addition, we have empirically evaluated the proposed approach and tool using real sales and service related data from digital TV manufacturer. In our empirical experiments, we intend to explore the performance of our proposed service forecasting framework when compared to the performances predicted by other two service forecasting methods; one is traditional CBR based forecasting model and the other is the existing service forecasting model used by Company A. We ran each service forecasting 144 times; each time, input data were randomly sampled for each service forecasting framework. To evaluate accuracy of forecasting results, we used Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as primary performance measure in our experiments. We conducted one-way ANOVA test with the 144 measurements of MAPE for three different service forecasting approaches. For example, the F-ratio of MAPE for three different service forecasting approaches is 67.25 and the p-value is 0.000. This means that the difference between the MAPE of the three different service forecasting approaches is significant at the level of 0.000. Since there is a significant difference among the different service forecasting approaches, we conducted Tukey's HSD post hoc test to determine exactly which means of MAPE are significantly different from which other ones. In terms of MAPE, Tukey's HSD post hoc test grouped the three different service forecasting approaches into three different subsets in the following order: our proposed approach > traditional CBR-based service forecasting approach > the existing forecasting approach used by Company A. Consequently, our empirical experiments show that our proposed approach outperformed the traditional CBR based forecasting model and the existing service forecasting model used by Company A. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 provides some research background information such as summary of CBR and SOM. Section 3 presents a hybrid service forecasting framework based on Case-based Reasoning and Self-Organizing Maps, while the empirical evaluation results are summarized in Section 4. Conclusion and future research directions are finally discussed in Section 5.

Change Detection at the Nakdong Estuary Delta Using Satellite Image and GIS (위성영상과 GIS를 이용한 낙동강하구 지형변화탐지)

  • Oh, Che-Young;Park, So-Young;Choi, Chul-Uong;Jeon, Sung-Woo
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.21-29
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    • 2010
  • Nakdong Estuary Delta plays various roles of worldwide habitat for migratory birds and a sand supplier to Haewoondae Beach and Gwanganri, which are tourist attractions of Busan. In this study, long-term topographical changes of Nakdong Estuary (Jinwoo Islet, Sinja Islet, Doyodeung, Dadae Beach) coast were detected and interpreted. Through the analysis of 34 years' satellite images, it was found out that a part in between front side and back side of Jinwoo Islet increased, Sinja Islet was divided into two belts in 1970, and has formed an islet since the 1980s and extended westward. Due to the rapid development of small islets in front of Baekhabdeung since 1990s, Doyodeung formed in the late 1990s and is still growing. To make coastal map of Nakdong Estuary area, 13 images, of which the tide level was $99{\pm}13cm$, from the 112 Landsat images of the period from 1975 to 2009 were selected to section into water zone and land zone using NDV. And the rates of coastal line change such as MATLAB EPR(End Point Rate) and LRR(Linear Regression Rate) were calculated using DSAS 4.0(Digital Shoreline Analysis System). Through detecting topographical changes, EPR showed that the front(south) and back side(north) of Jinwoo Islet moved southward at -0.93~2.56m/yr, and changes in costal line and area of Jinwoo Islet were low and stable. The front and backside of Sinja Islet moved northward at 1~4m/yr, whereas the west side of Sinja Islet was stable at 2~3m/yr and east side of Sinja Islet moved northward at 10m/yr or faster. The front and back side of Doyodeung moved northward at 18~27m/yr, causing the increase of area, while the coastal line of Dadae Beach moved westward at 7m/yr, causing the expansion of the beach. LRR also demonstrated a similar trend to EPR. Although analysis of satellite images and GIS could enabled detection of topographical changes and quantitative analysis of natural phenomena, we found that continuous observation of natural phenomena and various analytical methods are required.

Geo-surface Environmental Changes and Reclaimed Amount Prediction Using Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System in the Siwha Area (원격탐사와 지리정보시스템을 이용한 시화지구 일대의 지표환경변화와 토공량 예측연구)

  • Yang, So-Yeon;Song, Moo-Young;Hwang, Jeong
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.161-176
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    • 1999
  • The objectives of this study are to analyze the changes of geo-surface topography in the Siwha embankment and the Ahsan city area by the image processing of Landsat Thematic Mapper data, and to estimate the reclaimed amount of the exposed tidal flat in the Siwha area using the GIS. False color composite, Tasseled cap, NVDI(normalized difference vegetation index), and supervised classification techniques were used to analyze the distribution of sediments and the aspect of topographical variations caused by artificial human actions. The total amount of the exposed tidal flat was estimated on the basis of the database snch as aerial photography, hydrographic chart, geological map, and scheme drawing in the Siwha area. The possible excavation regions for a seawall were predicted analyzing the supervised classification image of Landsat TM data. Tasseled cap images were used to observe the distribution of sediments. The difference of the NDVI images between spring and summer seasons indicates that deciduous and coniferous forests were distributed over the whole areas. The total fill-volume of the exposed Siwha tidal flat and the fill-volume of the construction planning seawall were calculated as $581,485,354\textrm{m}^3{\;}and{\;}3,387,360\textrm{m}^3$, respectively, from the digital terrain analysis. Daebu Island, Sunkam Island, and the part of Songsan-myeon were chosen as the cut area to make the seawall, and their cut-volumes were estimated as $5,229,576\textrm{m}^3,{\;}79,227,072\textrm{m}^3,{\;}and{\;}47,026,008\textrm{m}^3$, respectively. Therefore, the cut-volume of Daebu Island alone among three areas was sufficient to make the seawall.

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Assessment of National Soil Loss and Potential Erosion Area using the Digital Detailed Soil Maps (수치 정밀토양도를 이용한 전국 토양 유실량의 평가 및 침식 위험지역의 분석)

  • Jung, Kang-Ho;Sonn, Yeon-Kyu;Hong, Seok-Young;Hur, Seung-Oh;Ha, Sang-Keon
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.59-65
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    • 2005
  • This study was performed to estimate the soil loss on a national scale and grade regions with the potential risk of soil erosion. Universal soil loss equation (USLE) for rainfall and runoff erosivity factors (R), cover management factors (C) and support practice factors (P) and revised USLE for soil erodibility factors (K) and topographic factors (LS) were used. To estimate the soil loss, the whole nation was divided into 21,337 groups according to city county, soil phase and land use type. The R factors were high in the southern coast of Gyeongnam and Jeonnam and part of the western coast of Gyeonggi and low in the inland and eastern coast of Gyeongbuk. The K factors were higher in the regions located on the lower streams of rivers and the plain lands of the western coast of Chungnam and Jeonbuk. The average slope of upland areas in Pyeongchang-gun was the steepest of 30.1%. The foot-slope areas from the Taebaek Mountains to the Sobaek Mountains had steep uplands. Total soil loss of Korea was estimated as $50{\times}10^6Mg$ in 2004. The potential risk of soil erosion in upland was the severest in Gyeongnam and the amount of soil erosion was the greatest in Jeonnam. The regions in which annual soil loss was estimated over $50Mg\;ha^{-1}$ were graded as "the very severe" and their acreage was $168{\times}10^3ha$ in 2004. The soil erosion maps of city/county of Korea were made based on digital soil maps with 1:25,000 scale.

An Introduction of Korean Soil Information System (한국 토양정보시스템 소개)

  • Hong, S. Young;Zhang, Yong-Seon;Hyun, Byung-Keun;Sonn, Yeon-Kyu;Kim, Yi-Hyun;Jung, Sug-Jae;Park, Chan-Won;Song, Kwan-Cheol;Jang, Byoung-Choon;Choe, Eun-Young;Lee, Ye-Jin;Ha, Sang-Keun;Kim, Myung-Suk;Lee, Jong-Sik;Jung, Goo-Bok;Ko, Byong-Gu;Kim, Gun-Yeob
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.21-28
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    • 2009
  • Detailed information on soil characteristics is of great importance for the use and conservation of soil resources that are essential for human welfare and ecosystem sustainability. This paper introduces soil inventory of Korea focusing on national soil database establishment, information systems, use, and future direction for natural resources management. Different scales of soil maps surveyed and soil test data collected by RDA (Rural Development Administration) were computerized to construct digital soil maps and database. Soil chemical properties and heavy metal concentrations in agricultural soils including vulnerable agricultural soils were investigated regularly at fixed sampling points. Internet-based information systems for soil and agro-environmental resources were developed based on 'National Soil Survey Projects' for managing soil resources and for providing soil information to the public, and 'Agroenvironmental Change Monitoring Project' to monitor spatial and temporal changes of agricultural environment will be opened soon. Soils data has a great potential of further application in estimation of soil carbon storage, water capacity, and soil loss. Digital mapping of soil and environment using state-of-the-art and emerging technologies with a pedometrics concept will lead to future direction.

Assessment of Soil Loss Estimated by Soil Catena Originated from Granite and Gneiss in Catchment (소유역단위 화강암/편마암 기원 토양 연접군(catena)에 따른 토양 유실 평가)

  • Hur, Seung-Oh;Sonn, Yeon-Kyu;Jung, Kang-Ho;Park, Chan-Won;Lee, Hyun-Hang;Ha, Sang-Keun;Kim, Jeong-Gyu
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.40 no.5
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    • pp.383-391
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    • 2007
  • This study was conducted for an assessment through the estimation of soil loss by each catchment classified by soil catena. Ten catchments, which are Geumgang21, Namgang03, Dongjincheon, Gapyongcheon01, Gyongancheon02, Geumgang16, Byongsungcheon01, Daesincheon, Bukcheon02, Youngsangang08, were selected from the hydrologic unit map and the detailed soil digital map (1:25,000) for this study. The catchments like Geumgang21, Namgang03, Dongjincheon, Gapyongcheon01 and Gyongancheon02 were mainly composed with soils originated from gneiss. The catchments like Geumgang16, Byongsungcheon01, Daesincheon, Bukcheon02 and Youngsangang08 were mainly composed with soils originated from granites. The grades, which are divided into seven grades with A(very tolerable), B(tolerable), C(moderate), D(low), E(high), F(severe), G(very severe), of soil erosion estimated by USLE in catchments were distributed in most A and B because of paddy land and forestry. In detailed, the soil erosion grade of catchments mainly distributing soils originated from gneiss showed more the distribution of B and C than it of catchments mainly distributing soils originated from granites. The reason of results would be derived from topographic characteristics of soils originated from gneiss located at mountainous. The soil loss according to soil catena linked with Songsan and Jigok series, which are soils originated from gneiss was calculated with $7.66ton\;ha^{-1}\;yr^{-1}$. The soil loss of Geumgang16, Byongsungcheon01, Daesincheon, Bukcheon02 which have the soil catena linked with Samgak and Sangju soil series originated from granite, was calculated with $5.55ton\;ha^{-1}\;yr^{-1}$. The soil loss of Youngsangang08 which have the soil catena linked with Songjung and Baeksan soil series originated from granite was calculated with $9.6ton\;ha^{-1}\;yr^{-1}$, but the conclusion on soil loss in this kind of soil catena would be drawn from the analysis of more catchments. In conclusion, the results of this study inform that the classification of soil catena by catchments and estimation of soil loss according to soil catena would be effective for analysis on the grade of non-point pollution by soil erosion in a catchment.

A Study on the Consideration of the Locations of Gyeongju Oksan Gugok and Landscape Interpretation - Focusing on the Arbor of Lee, Jung-Eom's "Oksan Gugok" - (경주 옥산구곡(玉山九曲)의 위치비정과 경관해석 연구 - 이정엄의 「옥산구곡가」를 중심으로 -)

  • Peng, Hong-Xu;Kang, Tai-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.26-36
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    • 2018
  • This study aims to examine the characteristics of landscape through the analysis of location and the landscape of Gugok while also conducting the empirical study through the literature review, field study, and digital analysis of the Okgung Gugok. Oksan Gugok is a set of songs set in Ogsan Creek(玉山川)or Jagyese Creek(紫溪川, 紫玉山), which flows in front of the Oksan Memorial Hall(李彦迪), which is dedicated to the Lee Eong-jeok (李彦迪). We first ascertained the location and configuration of Oksan Gogok. Second, we confirmed the accurate location of Oksan Gogok by utilizing the digital topographic map of Oksan Gogok which was submitted by Google Earth Pro and Geographic Information Center as well as the length of the longitude of the gravel measured by the Trimble Juno SB GPS. Through the study of the literature and the field investigation, The results of the study are as follows. First, Yi Eonjeok was not a direct composer of Oksan Gugok, nor did he produce "Oksan Gugokha(Music)". Lee Ia-sung(李野淳), the ninth Youngest Son of Tweo-Kye, Hwang Lee, visited the "Oksan Gugokha" in the spring of 1823(Sunjo 23), which was the 270th years after the reign of Yi Eonjeok. At this time, receiving the proposal of Ian Sung, Lee Jung-eom(李鼎儼), Lee Jung-gi(李鼎基), and Lee Jung-byeong(李鼎秉), the descendants of Ian Sung set up a song and created Oksan Gugok Music. And the Essay of Oksan Travel Companions writted by Lee Jung-gi turns out being a crucial data to describe the situation when setting up the Ok-San Gugok. Second, In the majority of cases, Gogok Forest is a forest managed by a Confucian Scholar, not run by ordinary people. The creation of "Oksan Bugok Music" can be regarded as an expression of pride that the descendants of Yi Eonjeok and Lee Hwang, and next generation of several Confucian scholars had inherited traditional Neo-Confucian. Third, Lee Jung-eom's "Oksan Donghaengki" contains a detailed description of the "Oksan Gugokha" process and the process of creating a song. Fourth, We examined the location of one to nine Oksan songs again. In particular, eight songs and nine songs were located at irregular intervals, and eight songs were identified as $36^{\circ}01^{\prime}08.60^{{\prime}{\prime}}N$, $129^{\circ}09^{\prime}31.20^{{\prime}{\prime}}E$. Referring to the ancient kingdom of Taojam, the nine-stringed Sainam was unbiased as a lower rock where the two valleys of the East West congregate. The location was estimated at $36^{\circ}01^{\prime}19.79^{{\prime}{\prime}}N$, $129^{\circ}09^{\prime}30.26^{{\prime}{\prime}}E$. Fifth, The landscape elements and landscapes presented in Lee Jung-eom's "Oksan Gugokha" were divided into form, semantic and climatic elements. As a result, Lee Jung-eom's Cho Young-gwan was able to see the ideal of mountain water and the feeling of being idle in nature as well as the sense of freedom. Sixth, After examining the appearance of the elements and the frequency of the appearance of the landscape, 'water' and 'mountain' were the absolute factors that emphasized the original curved environment at the mouth of Lee Jung-eom. Therefore, there was gugokga can gauge the fresh ideas(神仙思想)and retreat ever(隱居思想). This inherent harmony between the landscape as well as through the mulah any ideas that one with nature and meditation, Confucian tube.

A Study of the shade of between maxillary and mandibular anterior teeth in the Korean (한국인의 상하악 전치부 색조에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Tae-Jin; Kwon, Kung-Rock;Kim, Hyeong-Seob;Woo, Yi-Hyung
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.343-350
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to spectrophotometrically evaluate the shade difference between of maxillary and mandibular anterior teeth in the Korean by the standard of vita classical shade guide using $SpectroShade^{TM}$. Material and methods: In this study, the shades of healthy anterior teeth were examined and analyzed using the digital shade analysis of $SpectroShade^{TM}$. This study examined 80 individuals in their twenties, thirties, fourties, fifities ages and 40 males and 40 females, presenting 12 healthy, unrestored maxillary and mandibular anterior teeth. Tooth brushing and oral prophylaxis were performed prior to evaluation. The $SpectroShade^{TM}$ was used to acquire images of the 12 maxillary and mandibular anterior teeth. These images were analyzed using $SpectroShade^{TM}$ Software, and shade maps of each tooth were acquired. The shade difference of upper and lower, and gender differences and ages difference were investigated and analyzed with CIE $L^{*}a^{*}b^{*}$ color order system. One-Way ANOVA test was used to find out if there were significant differences between groups tested and Sheffe multiple comparison was used to identify where the differences were. Results: 1. Shade differences were significant (P < .05) between maxillary and mandibular central incisor, lateral incisor, canine. 2. No significant differences in shade distribution were seen between lateral incisors and central incisors. 3. Canine's shade difference were more significant than central incisor's and lateral incisors's. 4. No significant differences in shade distribution were seen between genders in maxillary and mandibulr central incisor, lateral incisor, canine. 5. No significant differences in shade distribution were seen in order of years in maxillary and mandibulr central incisor, lateral incisor, canine. Conclusions: The results of this study show that 1. Shade difference was founded in maxillary and mandibular anterior teeth and ${\Delta}E^{*}$ value was more than 2.0. 2. Canine's shade difference were more significant than central incisor's and lateral incisors's and between central incisors and lateral incisors shade differences were no significant. 3. No significant differences in shade distribution were seen between genders in maxillary and mandibular anterior teeth. 4. No significant differences in shade distribution were seen in order of years grade in maxillary and mandibular anterior teeth.

Discussions on the Distribution and Genesis of Mountain Ranges in the Korean Peninsular (I) : The Identification Mountain Ranges using a DEM and Reconsideration of Current Issues on Mountain Range Maps (한국 산맥론(I) : DEM을 이용한 산맥의 확인과 현행 산맥도의 문제점 및 대안의 모색)

  • Park Soo Jin;SON ILL
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.40 no.1 s.106
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    • pp.126-152
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    • 2005
  • In recent years, there are some confusions related to the definition and existence of mountain ranges, which have been described in current geography text books. We contend that these confusions came from the lack of understanding on the geomorphological processes that form the mountain system in Korea. This research attempts to clarify the definition of mountain ranges and offer geological and geomorphological explanations about the formation of them. Based on the analyses of the social and cultural causes underlying the recent debates on the existence of mountain ranges, we tried to identify the relationships among the definition of mountain ranges, geological structure of Korea, and the forming processes of mountain ranges. The current and past mountain range maps were compared with geological structures, geological maps, surface curvature, and hill shade maps. The latter two maps were derived from a Digital Elevation Model of the Korean Peninsular. The results show that we are able to prove the existence of most mountain ranges, which provides a useful framework to understand the geological evolution of Korean peninsular and formation of mountainous landscape of Korea. In terms of their morphological continuity and genesis, however, we identified five different categories of mountain ranges: 1) Uplift mountain ranges(Hamkyeong Sanmaek, Nangrim Sanmaek, Taebaek Sanmaek), which were formed by the uplift processes of the Korean Peninsular during the Tertiary; 2) Falut mountain ranges(Macheonryeong Sanmaek, Sobaek Sanmaek, Buksubaek Sanmaek), whirh were directly related to the uplift processes of the Korean Peninsular during the Tertiary; 3) Trust mountain ranges(Jekyouryeong Sanmaek, Kwangju Sanmaek, Charyeong Sanmaek, Noryeong Sanmaek), which were formed by the intrusion of granite and consequent orogenic processes during the Mesozoic era; 4) Drainage divide type mountain ranges, which were formed by the erosion processes after the uplift of Korean Peninsular; 5) Cross-drainage basin type mountain ranges (Kangnam Sanmaek, Eunjin Sanmaek, Myelak sanmaek), which were also formed by the erosion processes, but the mountain ranges cross several drainage basins as connecting mountains laterally We believe that the current social confusions related to the existence of mountain ranges has partly been caused by the vague definition of mountain ranges and the diversity of the forming processes. In order to overcome theses confusions, it is necessary to characterize the types of them according the genesis, the purpose of usages and also the scale of maps which will explains the mountain systems. It is also necessary to provide appropriate educational materials to increase the general public's awareness and understanding of geomorphological processes.

Application of The Semi-Distributed Hydrological Model(TOPMODEL) for Prediction of Discharge at the Deciduous and Coniferous Forest Catchments in Gwangneung, Gyeonggi-do, Republic of Korea (경기도(京畿道) 광릉(光陵)의 활엽수림(闊葉樹林)과 침엽수림(針葉樹林) 유역(流域)의 유출량(流出量) 산정(算定)을 위한 준분포형(準分布型) 수문모형(水文模型)(TOPMODEL)의 적용(適用))

  • Kim, Kyongha;Jeong, Yongho;Park, Jaehyeon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.90 no.2
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    • pp.197-209
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    • 2001
  • TOPMODEL, semi-distributed hydrological model, is frequently applied to predict the amount of discharge, main flow pathways and water quality in a forested catchment, especially in a spatial dimension. TOPMODEL is a kind of conceptual model, not physical one. The main concept of TOPMODEL is constituted by the topographic index and soil transmissivity. Two components can be used for predicting the surface and subsurface contributing area. This study is conducted for the validation of applicability of TOPMODEL at small forested catchments in Korea. The experimental area is located at Gwangneung forest operated by Korea Forest Research Institute, Gyeonggi-do near Seoul metropolitan. Two study catchments in this area have been working since 1979 ; one is the natural mature deciduous forest(22.0 ha) about 80 years old and the other is the planted young coniferous forest(13.6 ha) about 22 years old. The data collected during the two events in July 1995 and June 2000 at the mature deciduous forest and the three events in July 1995 and 1999, August 2000 at the young coniferous forest were used as the observed data set, respectively. The topographic index was calculated using $10m{\times}10m$ resolution raster digital elevation map(DEM). The distribution of the topographic index ranged from 2.6 to 11.1 at the deciduous and 2.7 to 16.0 at the coniferous catchment. The result of the optimization using the forecasting efficiency as the objective function showed that the model parameter, m and the mean catchment value of surface saturated transmissivity, $lnT_0$ had a high sensitivity. The values of the optimized parameters for m and InT_0 were 0.034 and 0.038; 8.672 and 9.475 at the deciduous and 0.031, 0.032 and 0.033; 5.969, 7.129 and 7.575 at the coniferous catchment, respectively. The forecasting efficiencies resulted from the simulation using the optimized parameter were comparatively high ; 0.958 and 0.909 at the deciduous and 0.825, 0.922 and 0.961 at the coniferous catchment. The observed and simulated hyeto-hydrograph shoed that the time of lag to peak coincided well. Though the total runoff and peakflow of some events showed a discrepancy between the observed and simulated output, TOPMODEL could overall predict a hydrologic output at the estimation error less than 10 %. Therefore, TOPMODEL is useful tool for the prediction of runoff at an ungaged forested catchment in Korea.

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