• Title/Summary/Keyword: Cyclones

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A Review on the Decision-making Process for Extratropical Transition of Typhoon from an Operational Forecast Point of View (현업예보 관점에서 태풍의 온대저기압화 판단 과정에 대한 고찰)

  • Cha, Eun-Jeong;Shim, Jae-Kwan;Kwon, H.Joe
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.567-578
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    • 2008
  • The extratropically transitioning cyclones have been shown to have a large effect on weather system in the midlatitues and cause sometimes the severe weather phenomena. However, both operational forecasting and research aspect of ET remain a significant challenge. Because it is difficult to distinguish ET stage due to obscure configuration of the cyclone itself. Furthermore, any definition of ET should not only be precise enough to satisfy the needs of the operational and research communities. Therefore, the "operational deterministic process for ET" was proposed and has been used to diagnose both structure and subsequent process of ET in 2007. In this study, it has been examined the maximum wind and SST in the 1st step, satellite image in the 2nd step, sounding in the 3rd step, surface weather chart analysis in the final step. This operational manual has allowed better monitoring and understanding of the changes in the structure as ET occurs.

A development of nonstationary rainfall frequency analysis model based on mixture distribution (혼합분포 기반 비정상성 강우 빈도해석 기법 개발)

  • Choi, Hong-Geun;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Park, Moon-Hyung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.11
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    • pp.895-904
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    • 2019
  • It has been well recognized that extreme rainfall process often features a nonstationary behavior, which may not be effectively modeled within a stationary frequency modeling framework. Moreover, extreme rainfall events are often described by a two (or more)-component mixture distribution which can be attributed to the distinct rainfall patterns associated with summer monsoons and tropical cyclones. In this perspective, this study explores a Mixture Distribution based Nonstationary Frequency (MDNF) model in a changing rainfall patterns within a Bayesian framework. Subsequently, the MDNF model can effectively account for the time-varying moments (e.g. location parameter) of the Gumbel distribution in a two (or more)-component mixture distribution. The performance of the MDNF model was evaluated by various statistical measures, compared with frequency model based on both stationary and nonstationary mixture distributions. A comparison of the results highlighted that the MDNF model substantially improved the overall performance, confirming the assumption that the extreme rainfall patterns might have a distinct nonstationarity.

Wind Speed Reduction Efficiency of Potenga-Muhuri Irrigation Project Coastal Belt in Chittagong, Bangladesh

  • Kader, Mohammad Abdul;Hossain, Mohammed Kamal;Kabir, Md. Humayain
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.78-89
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    • 2019
  • Coastal plantation is one of the key natural defence against the tidal surge induced tropical cyclones. In Bangladesh, a total of 81 km long coastal belt was established from Potenga to Muhuri in Chittagong. This study explores the wind protection efficiency of the coastal plantations at 28 observation points along the 81 km long Potenga-Muhuri irrigation project of Chittagong coastal belt. We found that wind protection efficiency was lowest (1.40% and 7.00%) at $1^{st}$ observation point of outside the embankment (OE) and inside of the embankment (IE) than Sea Shore (SS), respectively. On the other hand, the highest (82.89% and 95.72%) wind protection efficiency was observed at $22^{th}$ observation for Outside of the Embankment (OE) and Inside of the Embankment (IE) than Sea Shore (SS), respectively. This study also highlighted on species specific wind protection efficiency. The result revealed that 6-year old Casuarina, 6-year old mixed plantation and 10-year old Sonneretia apetala with the width of 20.12 m, 30.48 m, and 15.24 m can reduce wind speed up to 30 H, 30 H and 25 H at windward side, respectively. Analysis also showed that percentage of wind reduction was significantly higher at plantation coast than barren, and ship breaking yard coast. The findings of this study have great potentiality to contribute substantially to take more coastal embankment afforestation programs by the Government of Bangladesh and to choose the more wind resistant plant species throughout the coastal areas of the country.

Filtration of dispersed nanoparticles using cyclone and ultrasonic atomization (초음파 무화 및 사이클론을 이용한 분산된 나노입자의 여과법)

  • Jung, Jihee;Kim, Moojoon;Kim, Jungsoon
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.9-15
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    • 2022
  • In order to overcome the limitation of conventional nanoparticle dispersion methods such as sonicator or homogenizer, a filtration method using an ultrasonic atomization effect and cyclones was proposed in this study. A 0.5 wt% suspension was made with Al2O3 powder with an average diameter of 250 nm. The suspension was filtered by the proposed method after pre-dispersing using a sonicator and a homogenizer, respectively. As the result, in the case of the suspension after pre-dispersing with a sonicator, the particle size distribution of the filtered suspension started showing up a single normal distribution indicating the mode of the average diameter only after the 3rd cyclone process. On the other hand, in the case of the suspension with the homogenizer pre-dispersion, similar results appeared from the 2nd cyclone process. Filtration of various types of nanoparticles is expected to be possible by adjusting ultrasonic atomization frequency and manipulating the design of the cyclone.

A case study of gust factor characteristics for typhoon Morakat observed by distributed sites

  • Liu, Zihang;Fang, Genshen;Zhao, Lin;Cao, Shuyang;Ge, Yaojun
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.21-34
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    • 2022
  • Gust factor is an important parameter for the conversion between peak gust wind and mean wind speed used for the structural design and wind-related hazard mitigation. The gust factor of typhoon wind is observed to show a significant dispersion and some differences with large-scale weather systems, e.g., monsoons and extratropical cyclones. In this study, insitu measurement data captured by 13 meteorological towers during a strong typhoon Morakot are collected to investigate the statistical characteristics, height and wind speed dependency of the gust factor. Onshore off-sea and off-land winds are comparatively studied, respectively to characterize the underlying terrain effects on the gust factor. The theoretical method of peak factor based on Gaussian assumption is then introduced to compare the gust factor profiles observed in this study and given in some building codes and standards. The results show that the probability distributions of gust factor for both off-sea winds and off-land winds can be well described using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution model. Compared with the off-land winds, the off-sea gust factors are relatively smaller, and the probability distribution is more leptokurtic with longer tails. With the increase of height, especially for off-sea winds, the probability distributions of gust factor are more peaked and right-tailed. The scatters of gust factor decrease with the mean wind speed and height. AS/NZ's suggestions are nearly parallel with the measured gust factor profiles below 80m, while the fitting curve of off-sea data below 120m is more similar to AIJ, ASCE and EU.

Economic and non-economic loss and damage to climate change: evidence from a developing country shrimp farms to cyclone Bulbul

  • Islam, Md. Monirul;Nipa, Tanjila Akter;Islam, Md. Sofiqul;Hasan, Mahmudul;Khan, Makidul Islam
    • Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.214-230
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    • 2022
  • Loss and damage have become a vital contemporary issue in climate change studies and actions in developing countries. However, studies are scant on this in the fisheries sector around the world. In Bangladesh, there is no study on the loss and damage in fisheries dependent communities. This study assesses economic and non-economic loss and damage to coastal shrimp farms due to cyclone Bulbul in Gabura Union of Shyamnagar Upazila, Satkhira district, using a mixed method approach. Results show that all shrimp farms' dependent communities are affected by cyclone Bulbul to some extent. About 14%, 57%, and 29% of the farms were totally, heavily and moderately damaged due to farm inundation and dyke damage. The estimated mean loss and damage per shrimp farm was worth USD 4,633. Around 31% and 72% of the farms' fencing nets and traps were lost, which was worth USD 333 per farm. There were also loss and damage to other resources such as houses, solar panels, livestock and agricultural crops where the estimated mean loss and damage per household was worth USD 3,170. This study reported that the rich shrimp farmers encountered proportionately more economic loss and damage than their poor counterparts. However, this does not mean that the poor suffered less. The current study found a range of non-economic loss and damage in different aspects of the shrimp farmers' household members such as unbearable mental pain, deterioration of health, physical injuries, disabilities, etc. and access to services (e.g., inadequate food, lack of safe drinking water, lack of medical facilities, disruption of education systems), social infrastructure (e.g., damage of roads and markets) and disturbance of cultural functions. The findings suggest that urgent short- and long-term actions may be taken to save the aquaculture farms and dependent livelihoods from economic and non-economic loss and damage to cyclones in future.

Relaying of 4G Signal over 5G Suitable for Disaster Management following 3GPP Release 18 Standard

  • Jayanta Kumar Ray;Ardhendu Shekhar Biswas;Arpita Sarkar;Rabindranath Bera;Sanjib Sil;Monojit Mitra
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.369-390
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    • 2023
  • Technologies for disaster management are highly sought areas for research and commercial deployment. Landslides, Flood, cyclones, earthquakes, forest fires and road/train accidents are some causes of disasters. Capturing video and accessing data in real time from the disaster site can help first responders make split second decisions which may save human lives and valuable resource destructions. In this context the communication technologies performing the task should have high bandwidth and low latency which only 5G can deliver. But unfortunately in India, deployment of the 5G mobile communication systems is yet to give a shape and again in remote areas unavailability of 4G signals is still severe. In this situation the authors have proposed, simulated and experimented a 4G-5G communication scheme where from the disaster site the signals will be transmitted by a 5G terminal to a nearby 4G-5G gateway installed in a mobile vehicle. The received 5G signal will be further relayed by the 4G-5G gateway to the fixed 4G base station for onward transmission towards the disaster management station for decision making, deployment and relief monitoring. The 4G-5G gateway acts as a relay and converter of 5G signal to 4G signal and vice versa. This relayed system can be further mounted on a vehicle mounted relay (VMR) as proposed by 3GPP in Release 18. The scheme is also in the same line of context with Verizon's, "Tactical Humanitarian Operations Response" (THOR) vehicle concept. The performance of the link is studied in different channel conditions, the throughput achieved is superb. The authors have implemented the above mentioned system towards smart campus networking and monitoring landslides activities which are common in their regions.

Wind field prediction through generative adversarial network (GAN) under tropical cyclones (생성적 적대 신경망 (GAN)을 통한 태풍 바람장 예측)

  • Na, Byoungjoon;Son, Sangyoung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.370-370
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    • 2021
  • 태풍으로 인한 피해를 줄이기 위해 경로, 강도 및 폭풍해일의 사전 예측은 매우 중요하다. 이중, 태풍의 경로와는 달리 강도 및 폭풍해일의 예측에 있어서 바람장은 수치 모델의 초기 입력값으로 요구되기 때문에 정확한 바람장 정보는 필수적이다. 대기 바람장 예측 방법은 크게 해석적 모델링, 라디오존데 측정과 위성 사진을 통한 산출로 구분할 수 있다. Holland의 해석적 모델링은 비교적 적은 입력값이 필요하지만 정확도가 낮고, 라디오존데 측정은 정확도가 높지만 점 측정에 가깝기 때문에 이차원 바람장을 산출하기에 한계가 있다. 위성 사진을 통한 바람장 산출은 위성기술의 고도화로 관측 채널 수 및 시공간 해상도가 크게 증가하고 있기 때문에 다양한 기법들이 개발되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 생성적 적대 신경망 (Generative Adversarial Network, GAN)을 통해 일련의 연속된 과거 적외 채널 위성 사진 흐름의 패턴을 학습시켜 미래 위성 사진을 예측하고, 예측된 연속적인 위성 사진들의 교차상관 (cross-correlation)을 통해 바람장을 산출하였다. GAN을 적용함에 있어 2011년부터 2019년까지 한반도 근방에 접근했던 태풍 중에 4등급 이상인 68개의 태풍의 한 시간 간격으로 촬영된 총 15,683개의 위성 사진을 학습시켜 생성된 이미지들은 실측 위성 사진들과 매우 유사한 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 생성된 이미지들의 교차상관으로 얻어진 바람장 벡터들의 풍향, 풍속, 벡터 일관성 및 수치 모델과의 비교를 통해 각각의 벡터들의 품질 계수를 구하고 정확도가 높은 벡터들만 결과에 포함하였다. 마지막으로 국내 6개의 라디오존데 관측점에서의 실측 벡터와의 비교를 통해 본 연구 결과의 실효성을 검증하였다. 본 연구에서 확장하여, 이와 같이 AI 기법과 이미지 교차상관 기법을 사용하여 얻어진 바람장으로부터 태풍 강도예측에 필요한 요소인 태풍의 눈의 위치, 최고 속도와 태풍 반경을 직접적으로 산출할 수 있고. 이러한 위성 사진을 기반으로 한 바람장은 단순화된 해석적 바람장을 대체하여 폭풍 해일 모델링의 예측 성능 개선에 기여할 것으로 보여진다.

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Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Surface Winds over the Adjacent Seas of the Korean Peninsula (한국 주변해역에서의 해상풍의 시공간적 특성)

  • Han, Sang-Kyu;Lee, Heung-Jae;Na, Jung-Yul
    • 한국해양학회지
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.550-564
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    • 1995
  • The temporal and spatial characteristics of wind fields over the neighbouring seas of the Korean peninsula are investigated using 10-years daily wind data during 1978${\sim}$1987 which have been spatially smoothed and low-pass filtered. Long term annual and monthly means are examined for synoptic patterns and spectral analyses are made for temporal variability and spatial coherence. Spatial patterns of the annual mean wind stress and curl have a strong resemblance with those of monthly means during the winter season. Two outstanding periodicities are observed at 1 and 2 cycles per year. The synoptic winds over the study area are highly coherent at both the annual and semi-annual periodicities. However, each basin has its own characteristic spatial pattern. For instance, the prevailing wind during the winter season is northerIy over the northern East Sea (ES), Yellow Sea (YS), and northern East China Sea (ECS), while it is northwesterly over the southern ES and northesterly over the northern ES and southern ECS. At the same time, the wind stress curl is positive over the northern ES and southern ECS, while it is negative over the southern ES, YS and northern ECS. On the other hand, the wind field during the summer season, with its strength being much reduced, is completely different from that during the winter season, and frequent passage of tropical storms provokes large temporal variability over ECS. One remarkable point is that the annual cycle, dominated by the Siberian High, tends to propagate from northeast to southwest, i.e., from northern 25 toward southern ES, YS and ECS, while the semi-annual cycle propagates in the opposite direction, from southwest to northeast. The semi-annual periodicity may reflect development of extratropical cyclones in spring and fall which frequently cross the Korean peninsula. In higher frequencies, there are no dominant periodicities, but local winds over YS and ES are highly correlated for frequencies larger than 0.1 cycles per day and phase difference increases linearly with frequency. This linear increase of phase corresponds to phase speed of 550 and 730 km/d at 0.1 and 0.3 cpd, respectively, The phase speed is apparently coincident with moving speed of extratropical cyclones across the Korean peninsula in the west-east direction.

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Possible Effect of Western North Pacific Monsoon on Tropical Cyclone Activity around East China Sea (북서태평양 몬순이 동중국해 주변의 태풍활동에 미치는 영향)

  • Choi, Jae-Won;Cha, Yumi;Kim, Jeoung-Yun
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.194-208
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    • 2017
  • This study analyzed the correlation between tropical cyclone (TC) frequency and the western North Pacific monsoon index (WNPMI), which have both been influential in East China Sea during the summer season over the past 37 years (1977-2013). A high positive correlation was found between these two variables, but it did not change even if El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years were excluded. To determine the cause of this positive correlation, the highest (positive WNPMI phase) and lowest WNPMIs (negative WNPMI phase) during an eleven-year period were selected to analyze the mean difference between them, excluding ENSO years. In the positive WNPMI phase, TCs were mainly generated in the eastern seas of the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, passing through the East China Sea and moving northward toward Korea and Japan. In the negative phase, TCs were mainly generated in the western seas of the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, passing through the South China Sea and moving westward toward China's southern regions. Therefore, TC intensity in the positive phase was stronger due to the acquisition of sufficient energy from the sea while moving a long distance up to East Asia's mid-latitude. Additionally, TCs occurred more in the positive phase. Regarding the difference in 850 hPa and 500 hPa stream flows between the two phases, anomalous cyclones were strengthened in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, whereas anomalous anticyclones were strengthened in East Asia's mid-latitude regions. Due to these two anomalous pressure systems, anomalous southeasterlies developed in East China Sea, which played a role in the anomalous steering flows that moved TCs into this region. Furthermore, due to the anomalous cyclones that developed in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, more TCs could be generated in the positive phase.