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A Review on the Decision-making Process for Extratropical Transition of Typhoon from an Operational Forecast Point of View

현업예보 관점에서 태풍의 온대저기압화 판단 과정에 대한 고찰

  • Cha, Eun-Jeong (National Typhoon Center, Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Shim, Jae-Kwan (National Typhoon Center, Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Kwon, H.Joe (Department of Atmospheric Science/Typhoon Research Center, Kongju National University)
  • 차은정 (기상청 국가태풍센터) ;
  • 심재관 (기상청 국가태풍센터) ;
  • 권혁조 (공주대학교 대기과학과/태풍연구센터)
  • Published : 2008.12.30

Abstract

The extratropically transitioning cyclones have been shown to have a large effect on weather system in the midlatitues and cause sometimes the severe weather phenomena. However, both operational forecasting and research aspect of ET remain a significant challenge. Because it is difficult to distinguish ET stage due to obscure configuration of the cyclone itself. Furthermore, any definition of ET should not only be precise enough to satisfy the needs of the operational and research communities. Therefore, the "operational deterministic process for ET" was proposed and has been used to diagnose both structure and subsequent process of ET in 2007. In this study, it has been examined the maximum wind and SST in the 1st step, satellite image in the 2nd step, sounding in the 3rd step, surface weather chart analysis in the final step. This operational manual has allowed better monitoring and understanding of the changes in the structure as ET occurs.

온대저기압화는 중위도 기압계에 큰 영향을 주고 때로는 악기상의 원인이 되기도 한다. 그러나 온대저기압화에 대한 예보와 연구 양쪽 모두 많은 과제가 남아있다. 왜냐하면 태풍으로부터 변질된 온대저기압 자체의 모호한 형태 때문이다. 또한, 온대저기압화의 정의가 예보나 연구 양쪽 모두 만족시켜줄 만큼 정확하지도 않다 따라서 기상청은 2007 년에 "온대저기압화 현엽매뉴얼"을 개발하여 온대저기압화의 일련의 과정과 구조 변화 진단에 사용하였다. 이 매뉴얼에서는 1단계 최대풍속과 해수면온도, 2단계 위성영상, 3단계 단열선도, 그리고 최종단계인 4단계에서 지상일기도를 분석하였다. 이 현업매뉴얼은 온대저기압화가 일어날 때 구조변화의 이해와 감시에 도움이 될 것이다.

Keywords

References

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