• Atmosphere
• /
• v.24 no.4
• /
• pp.565-571
• /
• 2014

A long-range prediction system of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) has been operated in the National Typhoon Center of the Korea Meteorological Administration since 2012. The model forecasts the spatial distribution of TC tracks averaged over the period June~October. In this study, we separately developed TC prediction models for summer (June~August) and autumn (September~November) period based on the current operating system. To perform the three-month WNP TC activity prediction procedure readily, we modified the shell script calling in environmental variables automatically. The user can apply the model by changing these environmental variables of namelist parameter in consideration of their objective. The validations for the two seasons demonstrate the great performance of predictions showing high pattern correlations between hindcast and observed TC activity. In addition, we developed a post-processing script for deducing TC activity in the Korea emergency zone from final forecasting map and its skill is discussed.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
• /
• 2016.05a
• /
• pp.64-65
• /
• 2016

According to the recent increase in the height of supertall buildings, construction lift became one of most important equipment for vertical transportation of resources. However, increase in lifting load during peak time in which the resources are concentrated often causes a risk of construction delay. This study suggests a concept of Double-Cage construction lift, which is a lift with two cages attached together allowing transportation of resources on two consecutive work floors simultaneously. The aim of this study is to present a simulation model suitable for calculating hoisting time of Double-Cage construction lift. The proposed model is expected to be utilized when applying Double-cage construction lift for its efficient operation and management.

• Atmosphere
• /
• v.17 no.2
• /
• pp.135-145
• /
• 2007

We developed a simple regression model for predicting the intesity change (central pressure) of major tropical cyclones (TCs) for 24 hours after landfall using 51 TC cases which landed over the Korean Peninsula for 1951-2004. Clusters 1 and 4 with a relatively strong intensity of TC after landfall classified by Choi and Kim (2007) are used to develop a statistical model for the prediction of TC intensity change. Predicting parameters (falling constants) in the regression models $(P_t=P_0+alnt)$ are 6.46 and 10.11 for clusters 1 and 4, respectively. It might be mentioned that there is some feasibility in employing a simple regression model developed in this study for TC intensity change after landfall for operational purpose of TC forecasting compared with RSMC-Tokyo best-track in both TC cases of Clusters 1 and 4 and Ewiniar (0603) case, but the room for improvement of model still remains for further study.

• 한국데이터정보과학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 2002.06a
• /
• pp.9-15
• /
• 2002

This paper presents the seasonal forecasting of the occurrence of tropical cyclone (TC) over Western North Pacific (WNP) using the generalized linear model (GLM) and dynamic linear model (DLM) based on 51-year-data (1951-2001) in TC season (June to November). The numbers of TC and TY are predictands and 16 indices (the E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation, the synoptic factors over East asia and WNP) are considered as potential predictors. With 30-year moving windowing, the estimation and prediction of TC and TY are performed using GLM. If GLM forecasts have some systematic error like a bias, DLM is applied to remove the systematic error in order to improve the accuracy of prediction.

• Atmosphere
• /
• v.16 no.4
• /
• pp.319-332
• /
• 2006

This study examines the capability of the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model in reproducing heavy rainfall that developed over the Korean peninsula on 26-27 June 2005. The model is configured with a triple nesting with the highest horizontal resolution at a 3-km grid, centered at Yang-dong, Gyeonggi-province, which recorded the rainfall amount of 376 mm. In addition to the control experiment employing realistic orography over Korea, two consequent sensitivity experiments with 1) no orography, and 2) no land over Korea were designed to investigate orographic effects on the development of heavy rainfall. The model was integrated for 48 hr, starting at 1200 UTC 25 June 2005. The overall features of the large-scale patterns including a cyclone associated with the heavy rainfall are reasonably reproduced by the control run. The spatial distribution of the simulated rainfall over Korea agreed fairly well with the observed. The amount of predicted maximum rainfall at the 3-km grid is 377 mm, which located about 50 km southeast from the observed point, Yang-Dong, indicating that the WRF model is capable of predicting heavy rainfall over Korea at the cloud resolving resolutions. Further, it was found that the complex orography over the Korean peninsula plays a role in enhancing the rainfall intensity by about 10%. The land-sea contrast over the peninsula was fund to be responsible for additional 10% increase of rainfall amount.

• Atmosphere
• /
• v.24 no.1
• /
• pp.123-130
• /
• 2014

The automated prediction system for seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity is established at the National Typhoon Center of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) to provide effective operation and control of the system for user who lacks knowledge of the system. For automation of the system, two procedures which include subjective decisions by user are performed in advance, and their output data are provided as input data. To provide the capability to understand the operational processes for operational user, the input and output data are summarized with each process, and the directory structure is reconstructed following KMA's standard. We introduce a user interface using namelist input parameters to effectively control operational conditions which is fixed or should be manually set in the previous version of the prediction system. To operationally use early prediction which become available through the automation, its performances are evaluated according to initial condition dates. As a result, high correlations between the observed and predicted TC counts are kept for all track clusters even though advancing the initial condition date from May to January.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
• /
• v.31 no.5
• /
• pp.241-252
• /
• 2019

To choose appropriate countermeasures against potential coastal disaster damages caused by a storm surge, it is necessary to estimate the frequency of storm surge heights estimation. As the coastal populations size in the past was small, the tropical cyclone risk model (TCRM) was used to generate 176,689 synthetic typhoons. In simulation, historical paths and central pressures were incorporated as a probability density function. Moreover, to consider the typhoon characteristics that resurfaced or decayed after landfall on the southeast coast of China, incorporated the shift angle of the historical typhoon as a function of the probability density function and applied it as a damping parameter. Thus, the passing rate of typhoons moving from the southeast coast of China to the south coast has improved. The characteristics of the typhoon were analyzed from the historical typhoon information using correlations between the central pressure, maximum wind speed ($V_{max}$) and the maximum wind speed radius ($R_{max}$); it was then applied to synthetic typhoons. The storm surges were calculated using the ADCIRC model, considering both tidal and synthetic typhoons using automated Perl script. The storm surges caused by the probabilistic synthetic typhoons appear similar to the recorded storm surges, therefore this proposed scheme can be applied to the storm surge simulations. Based on these results, extreme values were calculated using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) method, and as a result, the 100-year return period storm surge was found to be satisfactory compared with the calculated empirical simulation value. The method proposed in this study can be applied to estimate the frequency of storm surges in coastal areas.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
• /
• v.28 no.7
• /
• pp.947-956
• /
• 2007

In this article, the extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclone (TC) was investigated based on the case study covering the latest three TCs (Shanshaa Yaki, and Soulik) associated with ET evolution (onset and completion) using the objective 37 diagnostics of Evans and Hart (2003) and Hart (2003). At 500-hPa level, on an onset of ET, all three TCs entered the baroclinic zone. In a vertical cross-section analysis, three TCs before and at an onset of ET kept warm and humid throughout all levels around the TC center. However, these TCs after ET onset became relatively cold and dry over the western part of TC as the typical characteristics of ET concept model. Although our case study was not sufficient, it is concluded that the diagnostics of the ET onset and atmospheric structure change associated with Evans and Hart (2003) and Hart (2003) will be useful in ET operational forecast.

• Wind and Structures
• /
• v.25 no.1
• /
• pp.79-100
• /
• 2017

The use of wind energy resources is developing rapidly in recent decades. There is an increasing number of wind farms in high wind-velocity areas such as the Pacific Rim regions. Wind turbine towers are vulnerable to tropical cyclones and tower failures have been reported in an increasing number in these regions. Existing post-disaster failure case studies were mostly performed through forensic investigations and there are few numerical studies that address the collapse mode simulation of wind turbine towers under strong wind loads. In this paper, the wind-induced failure analysis of a conventional 65 m hub high 1.5-MW wind turbine was carried out by means of nonlinear response time-history analyses in a detailed finite element model of the structure. The wind loading was generated based on the wind field parameters adapted from the cyclone boundary layer flow. The analysis results indicate that this particular tower fails due to the formation of a full-section plastic hinge at locations that are consistent with those reported from field investigations, which suggests the validity of the proposed numerical analysis in the assessment of the performance of wind-farms under cyclonic winds. Furthermore, the numerical simulation allows to distinguish different failure stages before the dynamic collapse occurs in the proposed wind turbine tower, opening the door to future research on the control of these intermediate collapse phases.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
• /
• v.11 no.2
• /
• pp.111-120
• /
• 2002

Asian dust(or yellow sand) occurs mainly in spring and occasionally in winter in east Asia, when the weather conditions are under an upper trough/cut-off low and surface high/low pressure system during blocking episode days associated with the stationary patterns of the upper level jet stream. The transport mechanism for Asian dust during the blocking episode days in spring 2001 was analyzed using the TOMS aerosol index and meteorological mesoscale model 5(MM5). Based on the E vector, an extension of an Eliassen-Palm flux, the blocking episode days were found to be associated with the development of an upper cut-off low and surface cyclones. Concurrently, the occurrence of dust storms was also determined by strong cold advection at the rear of a jet streak, which exhibited a maximum wind speed within the upper jet stream. As such, the transport mechanism for Asian dust from China was due to advection of the isentropic potential vorticity(IPV) and isentropic surfaces associated with tropopause folding. The transport heights for Asian dust during the blocking episode days were found to be associated with the distribution of the isentropes below the IPV At the same time, lee waves propagated by topography affected the downward motion and blocking of Asian dust in China. The Asian dust transported from the dust source regions was deposited by fallout and rain-out with a reinforcing frontogenesis within a surface cyclone, as determined from satellite images using TOMS and GMS5. Accordingly, these results emphasize the importance of forecasting jet streaks, the IPV, and isentropes with geopotential heights in east Asia.