• Title/Summary/Keyword: Cyclone Model

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A Consensus Technique for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction over the Western North Pacific (북서태평양 태풍 강도 예측 컨센서스 기법)

  • Oh, Youjung;Moon, Il-Ju;Lee, Woojeong
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.291-303
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    • 2018
  • In this study, a new consensus technique for predicting tropical cyclone (TC) intensity in the western North Pacific was developed. The most important feature of the present consensus model is to select and combine the guidance numerical models with the best performance in the previous years based on various evaluation criteria and averaging methods. Specifically, the performance of the guidance models was evaluated using both the mean absolute error and the correlation coefficient for each forecast lead time, and the number of the numerical models used for the consensus model was not fixed. In averaging multiple models, both simple and weighted methods are used. These approaches are important because that the performance of the available guidance models differs according to forecast lead time and is changing every year. In particular, this study develops both a multi-consensus model (M-CON), which constructs the best consensus models with the lowest error for each forecast lead time, and a single best consensus model (S-CON) having the lowest 72-hour cumulative mean error, through on training process. The evaluation results of the selected consensus models for the training and forecast periods reveal that the M-CON and S-CON outperform the individual best-performance guidance models. In particular, the M-CON showed the best overall performance, having advantages in the early stages of prediction. This study finally suggests that forecaster needs to use the latest evaluation results of the guidance models every year rather than rely on the well-known accuracy of models for a long time to reduce prediction error.

Development and validation of a numerical model for steel roof cladding subject to static uplift loads

  • Lovisa, Amy C.;Wang, Vincent Z.;Henderson, David J.;Ginger, John D.
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.495-513
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    • 2013
  • Thin, high-strength steel roof cladding is widely used in residential and industrial low-rise buildings and is susceptible to failure during severe wind storms such as cyclones. Current cladding design is heavily reliant on experimental testing for the determination of roof cladding performance. Further study is necessary to evolve current design standards, and numerical modelling of roof cladding can provide an efficient and cost effective means of studying the response of cladding in great detail. This paper details the development of a numerical model that can simulate the static response of corrugated roof cladding. Finite element analysis (FEA) was utilised to determine the response of corrugated cladding subject to a static wind pressure, which included the anisotropic material properties and strain-hardening characteristics of the thin steel roof cladding. The model was then validated by comparing the numerical data with corresponding experimental test results. Based on this comparison, the model was found to successfully predict the fastener reaction, deflection and the characteristics in deformed shape of the cladding. The validated numerical model was then used to predict the response of the cladding subject to a design cyclone pressure trace, excluding fatigue effects, to demonstrate the potential of the model to investigate more complicated loading circumstances.

Development of Cost Data Prototype in Reinforced Concrete work based on Productivity Analysis (생산성 분석을 통한 철근콘크리트공사의 Cost Data Prototype 개발)

  • An, Soo-Bae;Ji, Seong-Min;Hyun, Chang-Taek
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2011.11a
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    • pp.135-136
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    • 2011
  • A standard of estimation is used as a basis for estimating the predetermined amount of public construction. However, they raise several points of reasonable labor to be presented to a standard of estimation. For this reason, it is difficult to make a reasonable and efficient estimation of the costs, and this situation presents an urgent need for an accurate way of making such a calculation.This study analyzed the productivity of reinforced concrete work by the CYCLONE model, and the estimated optimal labor through sensitivity analysis, and presented the model on the number of optimal labor through sensitivity analysis.

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Typhoon Simulation with a Parameterized Sea Surface Cooling (모수화된 해면 냉각을 활용한 태풍 모의 실험)

  • Lee, Duho;Kwon, H. Joe;Won, Seong-Hee;Park, Seon Ki
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.97-110
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    • 2006
  • This study investigates the response of a typhoon model to the change of the sea surface temperature (SST) throughout the model integration. The SST change is parameterized as a formulae of which the magnitude is given as a function of not only the intensity and the size but the moving speed of tropical cyclone. The formulae is constructed by referring to many previous observational and numerical studies on the SST cooling with the passage of tropical cyclones. Since the parameterized cooling formulae is based on the mathematical expression, the resemblance between the prescribed SST cooling and the observed one during the period of the numerical experiment is not complete nor satisfactory. The agreements between the prescribed and the observed SST even over the swath of the typhoon passage differ from case to case. Numerical experiments are undertaken with and without prescribing the SST cooling. The results with the SST cooling do not show clear evidence in improving the track prediction compared to those of the without-experiments. SST cooling in the model shows its swath along the incomplete simulated track so that the magnitude and the distribution of the sea surface cooling does not resemble completely with the observed one. However, we have observed a little improvement in the intensity prediction in terms of the central pressure of the tropical cyclone in some cases. In case where the model without the SST treatment is not able to yield a correct prediction of the filling of the tropical cyclone especially in the decaying stage, the pulling effect given by the SST cooling alleviates the over-deepening of the model so that the central pressure approaches toward the observed value. However, the opposite case when the SST treatment makes the prediction worse may also be possible. In general when the sea surface temperature is reduced, the amount of the sensible and the latent heat from the ocean surface become also reduced, which results in the weakening of the storms comparing to the constant SST case. It turns out to be the case also in our experiments. The weakening is realized in the central pressure, maximum wind, horizontal temperature gradient, etc.

A Study on Zoning Model Using Web-Cyclone (웹사이클론을 이용한 조닝모듈 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Gwak, Han-Seong;Son, Chang-Back;Lee, Dong-Eun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2012.11a
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    • pp.115-117
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    • 2012
  • Task based modeling is essential in a construction operation simulation modeling. It allows dealing with local variables or delay factors that affect productivity and improves the reusability of existing operation models. An operation model can secure reality only if it reflects the real construction processes by effectively dealing with zoning issue. However, system users have some difficulties in modeling a construction operation that is consisted of several processes having different production units. Zoning is a major modeling issue when the task based modeling method is implemented using the existing discrete event simulation systems. This paper highlights the difficulty and presents a new method that complements the zoning issues attributed to different production units. The method is described in detail by presenting the flow of entities. It is confirmed that the zoning method effectively deals with the unbalance of production units between processes and facilitates to model an operation model having processes with different production units. The "Zoning module" contributes to increasing accuracy of simulation result.

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Dust collection optimization of tunnel cleaning vehicle with cyclone-based prefilter (사이클론 전처리부를 지닌 터널집진차량의 집진효율 최적화)

  • Jeong, Wootae
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.679-686
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    • 2018
  • A new dust cleaning vehicle is needed to remove fine and ultra-fine particulate matter in subway tunnels. Therefore, the recently developed tunnel cleaning vehicle is equipped with an efficient suction system and cyclone-based prefilter to handle ultra-fine particles. To treat various sizes of particulate matter with an underbody suction system, this paper proposes a cyclone-based prefilter in the suction system and validates the dust removal efficiency through Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis using ANSYS FLUENT. Using the created surface and volume mesh, various particle sizes, materials, and fan flow rates, the particles were tracked in the flow with a discrete phase model. As a result, the dust cleaning vehicle at a normal operational speed of 5km/h requires at least a fan flow rate of $1500m^3/min$ and 100mm of suction inlet height from the tunnel track floor. Those suction modules and cyclone-based prefilters in the dust cleaning vehicle reduces the dust accumulation load of the electric precipitator and helps remove the accumulated fine and ultra-fine dust in the subway tunnel.

Development of Inorganic Sludge Drying System Technology Applied with Ejector by Air Velocity (이젝터를 적용한 무기성 슬러지 건조시스템 기술개발)

  • Cho, En-man;Jeong, Won-hoon;Kim, Dong-keon;Kim, Bong-hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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    • v.21 no.9
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    • pp.35-41
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    • 2022
  • The moisture content of many inorganic sludges is less than 70% during dewatering. Hence, a mono or piston pump cannot feed the sludge dryer. Thus, most inorganic sludge should be moved to a landfill or recycled directly without any reduction method. This development was invented to apply cyclone dryers using air and specially designed for the continuous injection of sludge sources by negative pressure and high air velocity for low moisture inorganic matter. Therefore, wastewater sludge and raw water treatment sludge discharged from various industrial fields might be settled by this development. The cyclone dryer was commercialized useful as moisture reduction equipment. This development was applied using a sludge injection system for sludge feeding and under the cooperation of ejector design computational fluid dynamics. Furthermore, this paper presented good ejector model results, blowing an airflow of 264 m3/min at an actual performance test.

Wind characteristics observed in the vicinity of tropical cyclones: An investigation of the gradient balance and super-gradient flow

  • Tse, K.T.;Li, S.W.;Lin, C.Q.;Chan, P.W.
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.249-270
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    • 2014
  • Through comparing the mean wind profiles observed overland during the passages of four typhoons, and the gradient wind speeds calculated based on the sea level pressure data provided by a numerical model, the present paper discusses, (a) whether the gradient balance is a valid assumption to estimate the wind speed in the height range of 1250 m ~ 1750 m, which is defined as the upper-level mean wind speed, in a tropical cyclone over land, and (b) if the super-gradient feature is systematically observed below the height of 1500 m in the tropical cyclone wind field over land. It has been found that, (i) the gradient balance is a valid assumption to estimate the mean upper-level wind speed in tropical cyclones in the radial range from the radius to the maximum wind (RMW) to three times the RMW, (ii) the super-gradient flow dominates the wind field in the tropical cyclone boundary layer inside the RMW and is frequently observed in the radial range from the RMW to twice the RMW, (iii) the gradient wind speed calculated based on the post-landfall sea level pressure data underestimates the overall wind strength at an island site inside the RMW, and (iv) the unsynchronized decay of the pressure and wind fields in the tropical cyclone might be the reason for the underestimation.

Theoretical Analysis and Experimental Evaluation of Small Cyclone Separator to Remove Fine Particulate Matter (미립 물질 제거를 위한 소형 사이클론 분리기의 이론적 연구 및 실험적 검증)

  • Ko, Han Gyul;Kim, Hong Seok
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.77-82
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    • 2013
  • A cyclone separator has been widely used in various industrial processes for removing fine particulate matter because it is easy to fabricate, cost effective, and adaptable to extremely harsh conditions. However, owing to the complex flow field in cyclones, a complete understanding of the detailed mechanisms of particulate removal has not yet been gained. In this study, a theoretical analysis was performed for calculating the collection efficiency and cut-off size in cyclones by taking into account the effects of geometrical and flow parameters. The collection efficiency and cut-off size values predicted by the theoretical model showed good agreement with experimental measurements for particles with a diameter of $0.5-30{\mu}m$. It was also revealed that the surface friction, along with the flow and geometrical parameters, has a significant effect on the cyclone performance.

CFD Explanation and Verification of Multi Inner Stage Cyclone for The Particle Removal (미세입자 제거를 위한 Multi Inner Stage Cyclone의 CFD 해석 및 검증)

  • Lee, Sang Jun;Kim, Chun-Lee;Lee, Won Joo
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.149-156
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, Commercial program, STAR-CCM+, was used for computer simulation. And also Multi Inner Stage(MIS) cyclone which especially designed for the real experiments of particle removal efficiency. Under negative pressure condition of outlet, computer simulation was performed to predict the removal efficiency for $5{\mu}m$ and $10{\mu}m$ particles by using a turbulence model and lagrangian method. The simulation results are 55.7% and 64.1% for $5{\mu}m$ and $10{\mu}m$ particles, respectively. To compare the simulation results with the actual test of MIS cyclone, we generated the $SiO_2$ particles by heat reactor. Although removal efficiency of actual tests is 63~76% at different flow rate, the size of $SiO_2$ particles which confirmed by SEM(scanning electron microscope) and WAPS(wide range aerosol particle spectrometer) is too small(15~30nm) to compare each results. And so the alternative experiments were performed by using commercial alumina particles ($5{\mu}m$, $10{\mu}m$ and $20{\mu}m$). It was shown that the actual removal efficiency, 76~95%, from MIS cyclone is higher than simulated one.