• Title/Summary/Keyword: Cross - Validation

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The Parents Recognized Early Childhood Personality Character Education Conditions and Requirements (학부모가 인식한 유아 인성교육 실태 및 요구)

  • Son, Eun-Kyoung;Kim, Dong-Re
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.16 no.11
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    • pp.330-345
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study was the children learn character education situation and the desire of parents to recognize there is a purpose. In D city, the data collected was intended for 170 parents percentage of the frequency analysis SPSS program was performed multiple responses cross-validation analysis, and difference. As a result, first, it has the highest awareness of the need for Children Personality care and education of parents interest also highest. It was the concept of holistic education and character education Children can see that the same interpretation in the context of understanding the concept of Children education and Personality contents were understood as a whole. Second, these activities were Children Personality to training status could see that the character education are being made in this result assumed concentration of Children humanity education conducted in the home and work areas of daily life guidance and basic lifestyle at home talking It was made through the division. Children correct behavioral models for character education has given the values of the parent as the parent greatest impact on the formation of the Personality of children. Third, Children need for parent participation of character education should be made a parent education involvement in what is the result of Children character education out and it was found that it should be carried out life guidance program of parent education programs for Children character education.

Application of Machine Learning to Predict Weight Loss in Overweight, and Obese Patients on Korean Medicine Weight Management Program (한의 체중 조절 프로그램에 참여한 과체중, 비만 환자에서의 머신러닝 기법을 적용한 체중 감량 예측 연구)

  • Kim, Eunjoo;Park, Young-Bae;Choi, Kahye;Lim, Young-Woo;Ok, Ji-Myung;Noh, Eun-Young;Song, Tae Min;Kang, Jihoon;Lee, Hyangsook;Kim, Seo-Young
    • The Journal of Korean Medicine
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.58-79
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    • 2020
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study is to predict the weight loss by applying machine learning using real-world clinical data from overweight and obese adults on weight loss program in 4 Korean Medicine obesity clinics. Methods: From January, 2017 to May, 2019, we collected data from overweight and obese adults (BMI≥23 kg/m2) who registered for a 3-month Gamitaeeumjowi-tang prescription program. Predictive analysis was conducted at the time of three prescriptions, and the expected reduced rate and reduced weight at the next order of prescription were predicted as binary classification (classification benchmark: highest quartile, median, lowest quartile). For the median, further analysis was conducted after using the variable selection method. The data set for each analysis was 25,988 in the first, 6,304 in the second, and 833 in the third. 5-fold cross validation was used to prevent overfitting. Results: Prediction accuracy was increased from 1st to 2nd and 3rd analysis. After selecting the variables based on the median, artificial neural network showed the highest accuracy in 1st (54.69%), 2nd (73.52%), and 3rd (81.88%) prediction analysis based on reduced rate. The prediction performance was additionally confirmed through AUC, Random Forest showed the highest in 1st (0.640), 2nd (0.816), and 3rd (0.939) prediction analysis based on reduced weight. Conclusions: The prediction of weight loss by applying machine learning showed that the accuracy was improved by using the initial weight loss information. There is a possibility that it can be used to screen patients who need intensive intervention when expected weight loss is low.

A Study on the Optimal Discriminant Model Predicting the likelihood of Insolvency for Technology Financing (기술금융을 위한 부실 가능성 예측 최적 판별모형에 대한 연구)

  • Sung, Oong-Hyun
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.183-205
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    • 2007
  • An investigation was undertaken of the optimal discriminant model for predicting the likelihood of insolvency in advance for medium-sized firms based on the technology evaluation. The explanatory variables included in the discriminant model were selected by both factor analysis and discriminant analysis using stepwise selection method. Five explanatory variables were selected in factor analysis in terms of explanatory ratio and communality. Six explanatory variables were selected in stepwise discriminant analysis. The effectiveness of linear discriminant model and logistic discriminant model were assessed by the criteria of the critical probability and correct classification rate. Result showed that both model had similar correct classification rate and the linear discriminant model was preferred to the logistic discriminant model in terms of criteria of the critical probability In case of the linear discriminant model with critical probability of 0.5, the total-group correct classification rate was 70.4% and correct classification rates of insolvent and solvent groups were 73.4% and 69.5% respectively. Correct classification rate is an estimate of the probability that the estimated discriminant function will correctly classify the present sample. However, the actual correct classification rate is an estimate of the probability that the estimated discriminant function will correctly classify a future observation. Unfortunately, the correct classification rate underestimates the actual correct classification rate because the data set used to estimate the discriminant function is also used to evaluate them. The cross-validation method were used to estimate the bias of the correct classification rate. According to the results the estimated bias were 2.9% and the predicted actual correct classification rate was 67.5%. And a threshold value is set to establish an in-doubt category. Results of linear discriminant model can be applied for the technology financing banks to evaluate the possibility of insolvency and give the ranking of the firms applied.

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Estimated Soft Information based Most Probable Classification Scheme for Sorting Metal Scraps with Laser-induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (레이저유도 플라즈마 분광법을 이용한 폐금속 분류를 위한 추정 연성정보 기반의 최빈 분류 기술)

  • Kim, Eden;Jang, Hyemin;Shin, Sungho;Jeong, Sungho;Hwang, Euiseok
    • Resources Recycling
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.84-91
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    • 2018
  • In this study, a novel soft information based most probable classification scheme is proposed for sorting recyclable metal alloys with laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS). Regression analysis with LIBS captured spectrums for estimating concentrations of common elements can be efficient for classifying unknown arbitrary metal alloys, even when that particular alloy is not included for training. Therefore, partial least square regression (PLSR) is employed in the proposed scheme, where spectrums of the certified reference materials (CRMs) are used for training. With the PLSR model, the concentrations of the test spectrum are estimated independently and are compared to those of CRMs for finding out the most probable class. Then, joint soft information can be obtained by assuming multi-variate normal (MVN) distribution, which enables to account the probability measure or a prior information and improves classification performance. For evaluating the proposed schemes, MVN soft information is evaluated based on PLSR of LIBS captured spectrums of 9 metal CRMs, and tested for classifying unknown metal alloys. Furthermore, the likelihood is evaluated with the radar chart to effectively visualize and search the most probable class among the candidates. By the leave-one-out cross validation tests, the proposed scheme is not only showing improved classification accuracies but also helpful for adaptive post-processing to correct the mis-classifications.

Comparative study of prediction models for corporate bond rating (국내 회사채 신용 등급 예측 모형의 비교 연구)

  • Park, Hyeongkwon;Kang, Junyoung;Heo, Sungwook;Yu, Donghyeon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.367-382
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    • 2018
  • Prediction models for a corporate bond rating in existing studies have been developed using various models such as linear regression, ordered logit, and random forest. Financial characteristics help build prediction models that are expected to be contained in the assigning model of the bond rating agencies. However, the ranges of bond ratings in existing studies vary from 5 to 20 and the prediction models were developed with samples in which the target companies and the observation periods are different. Thus, a simple comparison of the prediction accuracies in each study cannot determine the best prediction model. In order to conduct a fair comparison, this study has collected corporate bond ratings and financial characteristics from 2013 to 2017 and applied prediction models to them. In addition, we applied the elastic-net penalty for the linear regression, the ordered logit, and the ordered probit. Our comparison shows that data-driven variable selection using the elastic-net improves prediction accuracy in each corresponding model, and that the random forest is the most appropriate model in terms of prediction accuracy, which obtains 69.6% accuracy of the exact rating prediction on average from the 5-fold cross validation.

Development of Moisture Content Prediction Model for Larix kaempferi Sawdust Using Near Infrared Spectroscopy (근적외선 분광분석법을 이용한 낙엽송 목분의 함수율 예측 모델 개발)

  • Chang, Yoon-Seong;Yang, Sang-Yun;Chung, Hyunwoo;Kang, Kyu-Young;Choi, Joon-Weon;Choi, In-Gyu;Yeo, Hwanmyeong
    • Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.304-310
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    • 2015
  • The moisture content of sawdust must be measured accurately and controlled appropriately during storage and transportation because biological degradation could be caused by improper moisture. In this study, to measure the moisture contents of Larix kaempferi sawdust, the near-infrared reflectance spectra (Wavelength 1000-2400 nm) of sawdust were used as detection parameter. After acquiring the NIR reflection spectrum of specimens which were humidified at each relative humidity condition ($25^{\circ}C$, RH 30~99%), moisture content prediction model was developed using mathematical preprocessings (e.g. smoothing, standard normal variate) and partial least squares (PLS) analysis with the acquired spectrum data. High reliability of the MC regression model with NIR spectroscopy was verified by cross validation test ($R^2$ = 0.94, RMSEP = 1.544). The results of this study show that NIR spectroscopy could be used as a convenient and accurate method for the nondestructive determination of moisture content of sawdust, which could lead to optimize wood utilization.

Prediction of Sediment distribution in Reservoir Using 2-D Numerical Model (2차원 수치모형을 이용한 저수지 내 퇴사분포 예측)

  • Kim, Ki Chul;Kim, Jong Hae;Chong, Koo-Yol;Kim, Hyeon Sik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.8
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    • pp.729-742
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    • 2014
  • This study predicted long-term sediment distribution for 76 years by using RMA-2 which is two-dimensional numerical model and SED2D which is the sediment transport model to quantitatively analyze sediment distribution in the reservoir based on sediment intrusion and efficiently manage the reservoir. For water level-discharge-sediment data required in boundary conditions of the model, real-time data measured by the Korea Water Resources Corporation were used. The sediment input data was calculated using K-DRUM model. Sedimentation depth was compared with results of model by collecting cross-section core in the reservoir during the dry season. As the result of validation, the sediment depth in the reservoir was similar to actually measured value. For prediction of long-term sediment distribution, terrain data measured in 2012 was used as starting crosssection and simulations for 76 years until 2088 were made. As the results of simulations, sediment distributions of 1.63~1.26 m and 1.45~0.007 m were shown in upstream and downstream of Hapcheon Dam, respectively.

Mixed dentition analysis using a multivariate approach (다변량 기법을 이용한 혼합치열기 분석법)

  • Seo, Seung-Hyun;An, Hong-Seok;Lee, Shin-Jae;Lim, Won Hee;Kim, Bong-Rae
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.112-119
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    • 2009
  • Objective: To develop a mixed dentition analysis method in consideration of the normal variation of tooth sizes. Methods: According to the tooth-size of the maxillary central incisor, maxillary 1st molar, mandibular central incisor, mandibular lateral incisor, and mandibular 1st molar, 307 normal occlusion subjects were clustered into the smaller and larger tooth-size groups. Multiple regression analyses were then performed to predict the sizes of the canine and premolars for the 2 groups and both genders separately. For a cross validation dataset, 504 malocclusion patients were assigned into the 2 groups. Then multiple regression equations were applied. Results: Our results show that the maximum errors of the predicted space for the canine, 1st and 2nd premolars were 0.71 and 0.82 mm residual standard deviation for the normal occlusion and malocclusion groups, respectively. For malocclusion patients, the prediction errors did not imply a statistically significant difference depending on the types of malocclusion nor the types of tooth-size groups. The frequency of prediction error more than 1 mm and 2 mm were 17.3% and 1.8%, respectively. The overall prediction accuracy was dramatically improved in this study compared to that of previous studies. Conclusions: The computer aided calculation method used in this study appeared to be more efficient.

Analysis of the CREOLE experiment on the reactivity temperature coefficient of the UO2 light water moderated lattices using Monte Carlo transport calculations and ENDF/B-VII.1 nuclear data library

  • El Ouahdani, S.;Erradi, L.;Boukhal, H.;Chakir, E.;El Bardouni, T.;Boulaich, Y.;Ahmed, A.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.52 no.6
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    • pp.1120-1130
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    • 2020
  • The CREOLE experiment performed In the EOLE critical facility located In the Nuclear Center of CADARACHE - CEA have allowed us to get interesting and complete experimental information on the temperature effects in the light water reactor lattices. To analyze these experiments with accuracy an elaborate calculation scheme using the Monte Carlo method implemented in the MCNP6.1 code and the ENDF/B-VII.1 cross section library has been developed. We have used the ENDF/B-VII.1 data provided with the MCNP6.1.1 version in ACE format and the Makxsf utility to handle the data in the specific temperatures not available in the MCNP6.1.1 original library. The main purpose of this analysis is the qualification of the ENDF/B-VII.1 nuclear data for the prediction of the Reactivity Temperature Coefficient while ensuring the ability of the MCNP6.1 system to model such a complex experiment as CREOLE. We have analyzed the case of UO2 lattice with 1166 ppm of boron in ordinary water moderator in specified temperatures. A detailed comparison of the calculated effective multiplication factors with the reference ones [1] in room temperature presented in this work shows a good agreement demonstrating the validation of our 3D calculation model. The discrepancies between calculations and the differential measurements of the Reactivity Temperature Coefficient for the analyzed configuration are relatively small: the maximum discrepancy doesn't exceed 1,1 pcm/℃. In addition to the analysis of direct differential measurements of the reactivity temperature coefficient performed in the poisoned UO2 lattice configuration, we have also analyzed integral measurements in UO2 clean lattice configuration using equivalency of the integral temperature reactivity worth with the driver core fuel reactivity worth and soluble boron reactivity worth. In this case both of the ENDF/B-VII.1 and JENDL.4 libraries were used in our analysis and the obtained results are very similar.

Development of a Classification Model for Driver's Drowsiness and Waking Status Using Heart Rate Variability and Respiratory Features

  • Kim, Sungho;Choi, Booyong;Cho, Taehwan;Lee, Yongkyun;Koo, Hyojin;Kim, Dongsoo
    • Journal of the Ergonomics Society of Korea
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.371-381
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    • 2016
  • Objective:This study aims to evaluate the features of heart rate variability (HRV) and respiratory signals as indices for a driver's drowsiness and waking status in order to develop the classification model for a driver's drowsiness and waking status using those features. Background: Driver's drowsiness is one of the major causal factors for traffic accidents. This study hypothesized that the application of combined bio-signals to monitor the alertness level of drivers would improve the effectiveness of the classification techniques of driver's drowsiness. Method: The features of three heart rate variability (HRV) measurements including low frequency (LF), high frequency (HF), and LF/HF ratio and two respiratory measurements including peak and rate were acquired by the monotonous car driving simulation experiments using the photoplethysmogram (PPG) and respiration sensors. The experiments were repeated a total of 50 times on five healthy male participants in their 20s to 50s. The classification model was developed by selecting the optimal measurements, applying a binary logistic regression method and performing 3-fold cross validation. Results: The power of LF, HF, and LF/HF ratio, and the respiration peak of drowsiness status were reduced by 38%, 22%, 31%, and 7%, compared to those of waking status, while respiration rate was increased by 3%. The classification sensitivity of the model using both HRV and respiratory features (91.4%) was improved, compared to that of the model using only HRV feature (89.8%) and that using only respiratory feature (83.6%). Conclusion: This study suggests that the classification of driver's drowsiness and waking status may be improved by utilizing a combination of HRV and respiratory features. Application: The results of this study can be applied to the development of driver's drowsiness prevention systems.