• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.64 no.2
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• pp.47-55
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• 2022

The objective of this study was to analyze the effect of the duration and time distribution of probability rainfall on farmland inundation for the paddy fields in the drainage improvement project site. In this study, eight drainage improvement project sites were selected for inundation modeling. Hourly rainfall data were collected, and 20- and 30-year frequency probability rainfalls were estimated for 14 different durations. Probability rainfalls were distributed using Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) and Huff time distribution methods. Design floods were calculated for 48 hr and critical duration, and IDF time distribution and Huff time distribution were used for 48 hr duration and critical duration, respectively. Inundation modeling was carried out for each study district using 48 hr and critical duration rainfalls. The result showed that six of the eight districts had a larger flood discharge using the method of applying critical duration and Huff distribution. The results of inundation depth analysis showed similar trends to those of design flood calculations. However, the inundation durations showed different tendencies from the inundation depth. The IDF time distribution is a distribution in which most of the rainfall is concentrated at the beginning of rainfall, and the theoretical background is unclear. It is considered desirable to apply critical duration and Huff time distribution to agricultural production infrastructure design standards in consideration of uniformity with other design standards such as flood calculation standard guidelines.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.52 no.2
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• pp.27-34
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• 2010

The PERT is one form of probabilistic network and can have many critical paths in the concept of each work has dispersed complete time. Here we propose two operators to estimate the probabilistic complete time about serial and parallel connections, and in each junction node, probability of critical path is estimated by new operator. Then we compare the estimated results with robability of critical path with deterministic CPM and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). Our results show that all paths in PERT can be critical path, and proposed operators are efficient and accurate probabilistic calculators compare MCS result.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.95-105
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• 1988

This paper describes the development of a reliability-based optimum design technique for such three dimensional tubular frames as off shore structures. The objective function is formulated for the structural weight. Constraints that probability of failure for the critical sections does not exceed the allowable probability of failure are set up. In the evaluation of the probability of failure, fatigue as well as buckling and plasticity failure are taken into account and the mean-value first-order second-moment method(MVFOSM) is applied for its calculation. In order to reduce the computing time required for the repeated structural analysis in the optimization process, reanalysis method is also applied. Application to two and three dimensional simple frame structures is performed. The influence of material properties, external forces, allowable failure probabilities and interaction between external forces on the optimum design is investigated.

• Research in Mathematical Education
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.233-244
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• 2012

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between creativity development and debate in solving a probability task. We developed the probability task with instructional strategies facilitating debating among students. 33 students in grade 11 who were identified as gifted participated in this study. The findings indicated that debating leads students to critical and reflective thinking on prior learning regarding probability concepts, which nurtured creative ideas on sample space.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.221-235
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• 2015

Risk assessment is an important phase of risk management. It is the stage in which risk is measured thoroughly to achieve effective management. Some factors such as probability and impact of risk have been used in the literature related to construction projects. Because in high-rise projects safety issues are paramount, this study has tried to develop a quantifying technique that takes into account three factors: probability, impact and Safety Performance Index (SPI) where the SPI is defined as the capability of an appropriate response to reduce or limit the effect of an event after its occurrence with regard to safety pertaining to a project. Regarding risk-related literatures which cover an uncertain subject, the proposed method developed in this research is based on a fuzzy logic approach. This approach entails a questionnaire in which the subjectivity and vagueness of responses is dealt with by using triangular fuzzy numbers instead of linguistic terms. This method returns a Risk Critical Point (RCP) on a zoning chart that places risks under categories: critical, critical-probability, critical-impact, and non-critical. The high-rise project in the execution phase has been taken as a case study to confirm the applicability of the proposed method. The monitoring results showed that the RCP method has the inherent ability to be extended to subsequent applications in the phases of risk response and control.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.46 no.3
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• pp.337-352
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• 2013

Seismic performance of critical facilities has been focused on the structural components over the past decade. However, most earthquake damages were observed to the nonstructural components during and after the earthquakes. The primary objective of this research was to develop the seismic fragility of the piping system incorporating the nonlinear Tee-joint finite element model in the full scale piping configuration installed in critical facilities. The procedure for evaluating fragility curves corresponding to the first damage state was considered the effects of the top floor acceleration sensitivities for 5, 10, 15, and 20 story linear RC and steel building systems subjected to 22 selected ground motions as a function of ground motion uncertainties. The result of this study revealed that the conditional probability of failure of the piping system on the top floor in critical facilities did not increase with increased level of story height and in fact, story level in buildings can tune the fragilities between the building and the piping system.

• The Mathematical Education
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• v.55 no.2
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• pp.193-208
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• 2016

This study analyzes the likelihood principle and elicits an educational implication. As a result of analysis, this study shows that Frequentist and Bayesian interpret the principle differently by assigning different role to that principle from each other. While frequentist regards the principle as 'the principle forming a basis for statistical inference using the likelihood ratio' through considering the likelihood as a direct tool for statistical inference, Bayesian looks upon the principle as 'the principle providing a basis for statistical inference using the posterior probability' by looking at the likelihood as a means for updating. Despite this distinction between two methods of statistical inference, two statistics schools get clues to compromise in a regard of using frequency prior probability. According to this result, this study suggests the statistics education that is a help to building of students' critical eye by their comparing inferences based on likelihood and posterior probability in the learning and teaching of updating process from frequency prior probability to posterior probability.

• Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.111-129
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• 1975

U.S. Air Force Regulation 80-1 defines that a weapon system is composed of equipments, skills, and techniques, the composite of which ferns an instrument of combat. The complete weapon system includes all related facilities, equipments, materials, services, and personnels required for the operation of the system, so that the instrument of combat can be considered as a self-sufficient unit of striking power in its intended operational environment. Effectiveness of a weapon system can be expressed as a function of its liability, reliability and performance capability. Among these attributes which influence the weapon effectiveness, performance capability is considered to be the most critical factor for many weapon systems. In order to illustrate the application of the methodology of performance capability, a specific ease study on the effectiveness of Vulcan anti-air craft gun system is presented with special emphasis on hitting probability on moving targets, effects of artificial rounds dispersion, and several principles related to the deployment of the system. This thesis includes the thorough survey of the possibility of calculating the absolute value of hitting probability on moving targets, indicates that the effects of artificial rounds dispersion increase the value of probability only when the total number of rounds fired within fire range exceeds a certain critical number, and suggests that concentrated guns deployment is better than scattered deployment in order to obtain higher probability and lower average amount of rounds if it is assumed that the effects of counter-attack from enemy threats are not serious.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.69-76
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• 2014

Survivability assessments and vulnerability reductions are required in warship design. A warship's survivability is assessed by its susceptibility, vulnerability, and recoverability. In this paper, an integrated survivability assessment for a warship subjected to multiple hits is introduced. The methodology aims at integrating a survivability assessment into an early stage of warship design. The hull surface is idealized using typical geometries for RCS (Radar Cross Section) detection probability and susceptibility. The Vulnerability is evaluated by using the shot-line. The recoverability is estimated using a survival time analysis. This enables the variation of survivability to be assessed. Several parameters may be varied to determine their effects on the survivability. The susceptibility is assessed by the probability of detecting the radar cross section of the subject and the probability of being hit based on a probability density function. The vulnerability is assessed by the kill probability based on the vulnerable area of critical components, according to the component's layout and redundancy. Recoverability is assessed by the recovery time for damaged critical components.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.285-301
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• 2023

During the construction of E75 highway through Grdelica gorge in Serbia, a major failure occurred in the zone of reinforced rock slope. Excavation was performed in highly anisotropic Paleozoic schist rock formation. The reinforcement consisted of the two rows of micropile wall with pre-stressed anchors. Forces in anchors were monitored with load cells while benchmarks were installed for superficial displacement measurements. The aim of the study is to investigate possible causes of instability considering different probability distributions of the strength of discontinuities and anchor bond strength by applying different optimization techniques for finding the critical failure surface. Even though the deterministic safety factor value is close to unity, the probability of failure is governed by variability of shear strength of anisotropic planes and optimization method used for locating the critical sliding surface. The Cuckoo search technique produces higher failure probabilities compared to the others. Depending on the assigned statistical distribution of input parameters, various performance functions of the factor of safety are obtained. The probability of failure is insensitive to the variation of bond strength. Different sampling techniques should yield similar results considering that the sufficient number of safety factor evaluations is chosen to achieve converged solution.