• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.39 no.1
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• pp.105-115
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• 2016

Ensemble classification involves combining individually trained classifiers to yield more accurate prediction, compared with individual models. Ensemble techniques are very useful for improving the generalization ability of classifiers. The random subspace ensemble technique is a simple but effective method for constructing ensemble classifiers; it involves randomly drawing some of the features from each classifier in the ensemble. The instance selection technique involves selecting critical instances while deleting and removing irrelevant and noisy instances from the original dataset. The instance selection and random subspace methods are both well known in the field of data mining and have proven to be very effective in many applications. However, few studies have focused on integrating the instance selection and random subspace methods. Therefore, this study proposed a new hybrid ensemble model that integrates instance selection and random subspace techniques using genetic algorithms (GAs) to improve the performance of a random subspace ensemble model. GAs are used to select optimal (or near optimal) instances, which are used as input data for the random subspace ensemble model. The proposed model was applied to both Kaggle credit data and corporate credit data, and the results were compared with those of other models to investigate performance in terms of classification accuracy, levels of diversity, and average classification rates of base classifiers in the ensemble. The experimental results demonstrated that the proposed model outperformed other models including the single model, the instance selection model, and the original random subspace ensemble model.

• The Journal of Information Systems
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.241-265
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• 2020

Purpose Various machine learning techniques are used to implement for predicting corporate credit. However, previous research doesn't utilize time series input features and has a limited prediction timing. Furthermore, in the case of corporate bond credit rating forecast, corporate sample is limited because only large companies are selected for corporate bond credit rating. To address limitations of prior research, this study attempts to implement a predictive model with more sample companies, which can adjust the forecasting point at the present time by using the credit score information and corporate information in time series. Design/methodology/approach To implement this forecasting model, this study uses the sample of 2,191 companies with KIS credit scores for 18 years from 2000 to 2017. For improving the performance of the predictive model, various financial and non-financial features are applied as input variables in a time series through a sliding window technique. In addition, this research also tests various machine learning techniques that were traditionally used to increase the validity of analysis results, and the deep learning technique that is being actively researched of late. Findings RNN-based stateful LSTM model shows good performance in credit rating prediction. By extending the forecasting time point, we find how the performance of the predictive model changes over time and evaluate the feature groups in the short and long terms. In comparison with other studies, the results of 5 classification prediction through label reclassification show good performance relatively. In addition, about 90% accuracy is found in the bad credit forecasts.

• The Journal of Information Systems
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.203-226
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• 2021

Purpose The purpose of this study is to enhance the accuracy score of personal credit scoring using the convolutional neural networks and secure the transparency of the deep learning model using eXplainalbe Artifical Inteligence(XAI) technique. Design/methodology/approach This study built a classification model by using the convolutional neural networks(CNN) and applied a methodology that is transformation of numerical data to imaged data to apply CNN on personal credit data. Then layer-wise relevance propagation(LRP) was applied to model we constructed to find what variables are more influenced to the output value. Findings According to the empirical analysis result, this study confirmed that accuracy score by model using CNN is highest among other models using logistic regression, neural networks, and support vector machines. In addition, With the LRP that is one of the technique of XAI, variables that have a great influence on calculating the output value for each observation could be found.

• Journal of Information Technology Services
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.233-250
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• 2012

In this paper, credit card delinquency means the possibility of occurring bad debt within the certain near future from the normal accounts that have no debt and the problem is to predict, on the monthly basis, the occurrence of delinquency 3 months in advance. This prediction is typical binary classification problem but suffers from the issue of data imbalance that means the instances of target class is very few. For the effective prediction of bad debt occurrence, Support Vector Machine (SVM) with kernel trick is adopted using credit card usage and payment patterns as its inputs. SVM is widely accepted in the data mining society because of its prediction accuracy and no fear of overfitting. However, it is known that SVM has the limitation in its ability to processing the large-scale data. To resolve the difficulties in applying SVM to bad debt occurrence prediction, two stage clustering is suggested as an effective data reduction method and ensembles of SVM models are also adopted to mitigate the difficulty due to data imbalance intrinsic to the target problem of this paper. In the experiments with the real world data from one of the major domestic credit card companies, the suggested approach reveals the superior prediction accuracy to the traditional data mining approaches that use neural networks, decision trees or logistics regressions. SVM ensemble model learned from T2 training set shows the best prediction results among the alternatives considered and it is noteworthy that the performance of neural networks with T2 is better than that of SVM with T1. These results prove that the suggested approach is very effective for both SVM training and the classification problem of data imbalance.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.55-70
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• 2001

Artificial neural network(ANN) models have been widely used for the classification problems in business such as bankruptcy prediction, credit evaluation, etc. Although the application of ANN to classification of consumers＇ choice behavior is a promising research area, there have been only a few researches. In general, most of the researches have reported that the classification performance of the ANN models were better than conventional statistical model Because the survey data on consumer behavior may include much noise and missing data, ANN model will be more robust than conventional statistical models welch need various assumptions. The purpose of this paper is to study the potential of the ANN model for forecasting consumers＇ choice behavior based on survey data. The data was collected by questionnaires to the shoppers of department stores and discount stores. Then the correct classification rates of the ANN models for the training and test sample with that of multiple discriminant analysis(MDA) and logistic regression(Logit) model. The performance of the ANN models were betted than the performance of the MDA and Logit model with respect to correct classification rate. By using input variables identified as significant in the stepwise MDA, the performance of the ANN models were improved.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.157-178
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• 2009

Corporate credit rating is a very important factor in the market for corporate debt. Information concerning corporate operations is often disseminated to market participants through the changes in credit ratings that are published by professional rating agencies, such as Standard and Poor's (S&P) and Moody's Investor Service. Since these agencies generally require a large fee for the service, and the periodically provided ratings sometimes do not reflect the default risk of the company at the time, it may be advantageous for bond-market participants to be able to classify credit ratings before the agencies actually publish them. As a result, it is very important for companies (especially, financial companies) to develop a proper model of credit rating. From a technical perspective, the credit rating constitutes a typical, multiclass, classification problem because rating agencies generally have ten or more categories of ratings. For example, S&P's ratings range from AAA for the highest-quality bonds to D for the lowest-quality bonds. The professional rating agencies emphasize the importance of analysts' subjective judgments in the determination of credit ratings. However, in practice, a mathematical model that uses the financial variables of companies plays an important role in determining credit ratings, since it is convenient to apply and cost efficient. These financial variables include the ratios that represent a company's leverage status, liquidity status, and profitability status. Several statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have been applied as tools for predicting credit ratings. Among them, artificial neural networks are most prevalent in the area of finance because of their broad applicability to many business problems and their preeminent ability to adapt. However, artificial neural networks also have many defects, including the difficulty in determining the values of the control parameters and the number of processing elements in the layer as well as the risk of over-fitting. Of late, because of their robustness and high accuracy, support vector machines (SVMs) have become popular as a solution for problems with generating accurate prediction. An SVM's solution may be globally optimal because SVMs seek to minimize structural risk. On the other hand, artificial neural network models may tend to find locally optimal solutions because they seek to minimize empirical risk. In addition, no parameters need to be tuned in SVMs, barring the upper bound for non-separable cases in linear SVMs. Since SVMs were originally devised for binary classification, however they are not intrinsically geared for multiclass classifications as in credit ratings. Thus, researchers have tried to extend the original SVM to multiclass classification. Hitherto, a variety of techniques to extend standard SVMs to multiclass SVMs (MSVMs) has been proposed in the literature Only a few types of MSVM are, however, tested using prior studies that apply MSVMs to credit ratings studies. In this study, we examined six different techniques of MSVMs: (1) One-Against-One, (2) One-Against-AIL (3) DAGSVM, (4) ECOC, (5) Method of Weston and Watkins, and (6) Method of Crammer and Singer. In addition, we examined the prediction accuracy of some modified version of conventional MSVM techniques. To find the most appropriate technique of MSVMs for corporate bond rating, we applied all the techniques of MSVMs to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. The best application is in corporate bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. For our study the research data were collected from National Information and Credit Evaluation, Inc., a major bond-rating company in Korea. The data set is comprised of the bond-ratings for the year 2002 and various financial variables for 1,295 companies from the manufacturing industry in Korea. We compared the results of these techniques with one another, and with those of traditional methods for credit ratings, such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), multinomial logistic regression (MLOGIT), and artificial neural networks (ANNs). As a result, we found that DAGSVM with an ordered list was the best approach for the prediction of bond rating. In addition, we found that the modified version of ECOC approach can yield higher prediction accuracy for the cases showing clear patterns.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.292-312
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• 2017

The purposes of this research are to verify: first, if the technology appraisal model reflects the company's management performance and the rates of bankruptcy and overdue; second, if the existing classification system of technology levels is suitable; and third, which is the most important appraisal factor that defines the classification system of technology levels. As a result of the analysis, financial performance (stability) and non-financial performance (technology environment) proved to be significant variables in explaining technology ratings. According to the verification of the suitability of classification system, it appeared that there is a significant difference in all appraisal items of all groups. The result of neural networks model verification indicates that the most important variable was the R&D capacity, the second variables which determine the suitability of technology financing were indicators related to the company management. The second variables which determine a company's technological excellence were a company's technological base. To summarize, the technology appraisal model not only reflects both managerial performance and risks of a company, but also anticipates the future by converging the management competence and technological competitiveness into R&D capacity. This implies that if the 'forward-looking' technology appraisal model is integrated into the existing, credit rating model, the appraisal model may have positive impact on improving anticipation and stability.

• Journal of Industrial Convergence
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.33-46
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• 2018

Personal credit scoring is an effective tool for banks to properly guide decision profitably on granting loans. Recently, many classification algorithms and models are used in personal credit scoring. Personal credit scoring technology is usually divided into statistical method and non-statistical method. Statistical method includes linear regression, discriminate analysis, logistic regression, and decision tree, etc. Non-statistical method includes linear programming, neural network, genetic algorithm and support vector machine, etc. But for the development of the credit scoring model, there is no consistent conclusion to be drawn regarding which method is the best. In this paper, we will compare the performance of the most common scoring techniques such as logistic regression, neural network, and support vector machines using personal credit data of the financial institution in China. Specifically, we build three models respectively, classify the customers and compare analysis results. According to the results, support vector machine has better performance than logistic regression and neural networks.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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• v.12D no.2 s.98
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• pp.211-218
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• 2005

This study presents an integrated data mining model for the credit evaluation of the customers of a capital company. Based on customer information and financing processes in capital market, we derived individual models from multi-layered perceptrons(MLP), multivariate discrimination analysis(MDA), and decision tree. Further, the results from the existing models were compared with the results from the integrated model using genetic algorithm. The integrated model presented by this study turned out to be superior to the existing models. This study contributes not only to verifying the existing individual models but also to overcoming the limitations of the existing approaches.

• Information Systems Review
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.69-91
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• 2021

Credit Bureaus in Korea commonly use financial transaction information of the past and present time for calculating an individual's credit scores. Compared to other rating factors, the repayment history information accounts for a larger weights on credit scores. Accordingly, despite full redemption of overdue payments, late payment history is reflected negatively for the assessment of credit scores for certain period of the time. An individual with debt delinquency can be classified into two groups; (1) the individuals who have faithfully paid off theirs overdue debts(Normal Repayment), and (2) those who have not and as differences of creditworthiness between these two groups do exist, it needs to grant relatively higher credit scores to the former individuals with normal repayment. This study is designed to analyze the factors of normal repayment of Korean financial debt delinquents based on credit information of personal loan, overdue payments, redemption from Korea Credit Information Services. As a result of the analysis, the number of overdue and the type of personal loan and delinquency were identified as significant variables affecting normal repayment and among applied methodologies, neural network models suggested the highest classification accuracy. The findings of this study are expected to improve the performance of individual credit scoring model by identifying the factors affecting normal repayment of a financial debt delinquent.