• Title/Summary/Keyword: Cox model

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Liver-to-Spleen Volume Ratio Automatically Measured on CT Predicts Decompensation in Patients with B Viral Compensated Cirrhosis

  • Ji Hye Kwon;Seung Soo Lee;Jee Seok Yoon;Heung-Il Suk;Yu Sub Sung;Ho Sung Kim;Chul-min Lee;Kang Mo Kim;So Jung Lee;So Yeon Kim
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.22 no.12
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    • pp.1985-1995
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    • 2021
  • Objective: Although the liver-to-spleen volume ratio (LSVR) based on CT reflects portal hypertension, its prognostic role in cirrhotic patients has not been proven. We evaluated the utility of LSVR, automatically measured from CT images using a deep learning algorithm, as a predictor of hepatic decompensation and transplantation-free survival in patients with hepatitis B viral (HBV)-compensated cirrhosis. Materials and Methods: A deep learning algorithm was used to measure the LSVR in a cohort of 1027 consecutive patients (mean age, 50.5 years; 675 male and 352 female) with HBV-compensated cirrhosis who underwent liver CT (2007-2010). Associations of LSVR with hepatic decompensation and transplantation-free survival were evaluated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards and competing risk analyses, accounting for either the Child-Pugh score (CPS) or Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score and other variables. The risk of the liver-related events was estimated using Kaplan-Meier analysis and the Aalen-Johansen estimator. Results: After adjustment for either CPS or MELD and other variables, LSVR was identified as a significant independent predictor of hepatic decompensation (hazard ratio for LSVR increase by 1, 0.71 and 0.68 for CPS and MELD models, respectively; p < 0.001) and transplantation-free survival (hazard ratio for LSVR increase by 1, 0.8 and 0.77, respectively; p < 0.001). Patients with an LSVR of < 2.9 (n = 381) had significantly higher 3-year risks of hepatic decompensation (16.7% vs. 2.5%, p < 0.001) and liver-related death or transplantation (10.0% vs. 1.1%, p < 0.001) than those with an LSVR ≥ 2.9 (n = 646). When patients were stratified according to CPS (Child-Pugh A vs. B-C) and MELD (< 10 vs. ≥ 10), an LSVR of < 2.9 was still associated with a higher risk of liver-related events than an LSVR of ≥ 2.9 for all Child-Pugh (p ≤ 0.045) and MELD (p ≤ 0.009) stratifications. Conclusion: The LSVR measured on CT can predict hepatic decompensation and transplantation-free survival in patients with HBV-compensated cirrhosis.

Imaging Predictors of Survival in Patients with Single Small Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treated with Transarterial Chemoembolization

  • Chan Park;Jin Hyoung Kim;Pyeong Hwa Kim;So Yeon Kim;Dong Il Gwon;Hee Ho Chu;Minho Park;Joonho Hur;Jin Young Kim;Dong Joon Kim
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.213-224
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    • 2021
  • Objective: Clinical outcomes of patients who undergo transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) for single small hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are not consistent, and may differ based on certain imaging findings. This retrospective study was aimed at determining the efficacy of pre-TACE CT or MR imaging findings in predicting survival outcomes in patients with small HCC upon being treated with TACE. Besides, the study proposed to build a risk prediction model for these patients. Materials and Methods: Altogether, 750 patients with functionally good hepatic reserve who received TACE as the first-line treatment for single small HCC between 2004 and 2014 were included in the study. These patients were randomly assigned into training (n = 525) and validation (n = 225) sets. Results: According to the results of a multivariable Cox analysis, three pre-TACE imaging findings (tumor margin, tumor location, enhancement pattern) and two clinical factors (age, serum albumin level) were selected and scored to create predictive models for overall, local tumor progression (LTP)-free, and progression-free survival in the training set. The median overall survival time in the validation set were 137.5 months, 76.1 months, and 44.0 months for low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, respectively (p < 0.001). Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves of the predictive models for overall, LTP-free, and progression-free survival applied to the validation cohort showed acceptable areas under the curve values (0.734, 0.802, and 0.775 for overall survival; 0.738, 0.789, and 0.791 for LTP-free survival; and 0.671, 0.733, and 0.694 for progression-free survival at 3, 5, and 10 years, respectively). Conclusion: Pre-TACE CT or MR imaging findings could predict survival outcomes in patients with small HCC upon treatment with TACE. Our predictive models including three imaging predictors could be helpful in prognostication, identification, and selection of suitable candidates for TACE in patients with single small HCC.

Value of Intraplaque Neovascularization on Contrast-Enhanced Ultrasonography in Predicting Ischemic Stroke Recurrence in Patients With Carotid Atherosclerotic Plaque

  • Zhe Huang;Xue-Qing Cheng;Ya-Ni Liu;Xiao-Jun Bi;You-Bin Deng
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.338-348
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    • 2023
  • Objective: Patients with a history of ischemic stroke are at risk for a second ischemic stroke. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between carotid plaque enhancement on perfluorobutane microbubble contrast-enhanced ultrasonography (CEUS) and future recurrent stroke, and to determine whether plaque enhancement can contribute to risk assessment for recurrent stroke compared with the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS). Materials and Methods: This prospective study screened 151 patients with recent ischemic stroke and carotid atherosclerotic plaques at our hospital between August 2020 and December 2020. A total of 149 eligible patients underwent carotid CEUS, and 130 patients who were followed up for 15-27 months or until stroke recurrence were analyzed. Plaque enhancement on CEUS was investigated as a possible risk factor for stroke recurrence and as a possible adjunct to ESRS. Results: During follow-up, 25 patients (19.2%) experienced recurrent stroke. Patients with plaque enhancement on CEUS had an increased risk of stroke recurrence events (22/73, 30.1%) compared to those without plaque enhancement (3/57, 5.3%), with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 38.264 (95% confidence interval [CI]:14.975-97.767; P < 0.001) according to a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model analysis, indicating that the presence of carotid plaque enhancement was a significant independent predictor of recurrent stroke. When plaque enhancement was added to the ESRS, the HR for stroke recurrence in the high-risk group compared to that in the low-risk group (2.188; 95% CI, 0.025-3.388) was greater than that of the ESRS alone (1.706; 95% CI, 0.810-9.014). A net of 32.0% of the recurrence group was reclassified upward appropriately by the addition of plaque enhancement to the ESRS. Conclusion: Carotid plaque enhancement was a significant and independent predictor of stroke recurrence in patients with ischemic stroke. Furthermore, the addition of plaque enhancement improved the risk stratification capability of the ESRS.

CT-Based Leiden Score Outperforms Confirm Score in Predicting Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events for Diabetic Patients with Suspected Coronary Artery Disease

  • Zinuan Liu;Yipu Ding;Guanhua Dou;Xi Wang;Dongkai Shan;Bai He;Jing Jing;Yundai Chen;Junjie Yang
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.23 no.10
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    • pp.939-948
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    • 2022
  • Objective: Evidence supports the efficacy of coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA)-based risk scores in cardiovascular risk stratification of patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD). We aimed to compare two CCTA-based risk score algorithms, Leiden and Confirm scores, in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) and suspected CAD. Materials and Methods: This single-center prospective cohort study consecutively included 1241 DM patients (54.1% male, 60.2 ± 10.4 years) referred for CCTA for suspected CAD in 2015-2017. Leiden and Confirm scores were calculated and stratified as < 5 (reference), 5-20, and > 20 for Leiden and < 14.3 (reference), 14.3-19.5, and > 19.5 for Confirm. Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) were defined as the composite outcomes of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and unstable angina requiring hospitalization. The Cox model and Kaplan-Meier method were used to evaluate the effect size of the risk scores on MACE. The area under the curve (AUC) at the median follow-up time was also compared between score algorithms. Results: During a median follow-up of 31 months (interquartile range, 27.6-37.3 months), 131 of MACE were recorded, including 17 cardiovascular deaths, 28 nonfatal MIs, 64 unstable anginas requiring hospitalization, and 22 strokes. An incremental incidence of MACE was observed in both Leiden and Confirm scores, with an increase in the scores (log-rank p < 0.001). In the multivariable analysis, compared with Leiden score < 5, the hazard ratios for Leiden scores of 5-20 and > 20 were 2.37 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.53-3.69; p < 0.001) and 4.39 (95% CI: 2.40-8.01; p < 0.001), respectively, while the Confirm score did not demonstrate a statistically significant association with the risk of MACE. The Leiden score showed a greater AUC of 0.840 compared to 0.777 for the Confirm score (p < 0.001). Conclusion: CCTA-based risk score algorithms could be used as reliable cardiovascular risk predictors in patients with DM and suspected CAD, among which the Leiden score outperformed the Confirm score in predicting MACE.

Effect of Stent Placement on Survival in Patients with Malignant Portal Vein Stenosis: A Propensity Score-Matched Study

  • Dong Jae Shim;Jong Woo Kim;Doyoung Kim;Gi-Young Ko;Dong Il Gwon;Ji Hoon Shin;Yun-Jung Yang
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.68-76
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    • 2022
  • Objective: Percutaneous portal vein (PV) stent placement can be an effective treatment for symptoms associated with portal hypertension. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of PV stenting on the overall survival (OS) in patients with malignant PV stenosis. Materials and Methods: Two groups of patients with malignant PV stenosis were compared in this retrospective study involving two institutions. A total of 197 patients who underwent PV stenting between November 2016 and August 2019 were established as the stent group, whereas 29 patients with PV stenosis who were treated conservatively between July 2013 and October 2016 constituted the no-stent group. OS was compared between the two groups before and after propensity score matching (PSM). Risk factors associated with OS were evaluated using the Cox proportional hazards model. Procedure-associated adverse events were also evaluated. Results: The stent group finally included 100 patients (median age, 65 [interquartile range, 58-71] years; 64 male). The no-stent group included 22 patients (69 [61-75] years, 13 male). Stent placement was successful in 95% of attempted cases, and the 1- and 2-year stent occlusion-free survival rate was 56% (95% confidence interval, 45%-69%) and 44% (32%-60%), respectively. The median stent occlusion-free survival time was 176 (interquartile range, 70-440) days. OS was significantly longer in the stent group than in the no-stent group (median 294 vs. 87 days, p < 0.001 before PSM, p = 0.011 after PSM). The 1- and 3-year OS rates before PSM were 40% and 11%, respectively, in the stent group. The 1-year OS rate after PSM was 32% and 5% in the stent and no-stent groups, respectively. Anemia requiring transfusion (n = 2) and acute thrombosis necessitating re-stenting (n = 1) occurred in three patients in the stent group within 1 week. Conclusion: Percutaneous placement of a PV stent may be effective in improving OS in patients with malignant PV stenosis.

Anti-inflammatory effects of biorenovated Torreya nucifera extract in RAW264.7 cells induced by Cutibacterium acnes (여드름균에 의해 유도된 RAW264.7 세포에서 생물 전환된 비자나무 추출물의 항염증 효과)

  • Hyehyun Hong;Tae-Jin Park;Yu-Jung Lee;Byeong Min Choi;Seung-Young Kim
    • Journal of Applied Biological Chemistry
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    • v.66
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    • pp.213-220
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    • 2023
  • The most common skin disease, acne, often occurs in adolescence, but it is also detected/observed in adults due to air pollution and drug abuse. One of the causative agents of acne, Cutibacterium acnes (C. acnes) plays a role in the development of skin acne by inducing inflammatory mediators. Torreya nucifera (TN) is an evergreen tree of the family Taxaceae, having well reported antioxidant, anti-proliferative, liver protection, and nerve protection properties. Improvement of these bioactive properties of natural products is one of the purposes of natural product chemistry and pharmaceuticals. We believe biorenovation could be one improvement strategy that utilizes microbial metabolism to produce unique derivatives having enhanced bioactivity. Therefore, in this study, the C. acnes-induced RAW264.7 inflammation model was used to evaluate the anti-inflammatory activity of the biorenovated Torreya nucifera product (TNB). The results showed improved viability of TNB-treated cells compared to TN-treated cells in the concentration range of 50, 100, and 200 ㎍/mL. At non-toxic concentrations, TNB inhibited the production of nitric oxide and prostaglandin E2 by suppression of inducible nitric oxide synthase and cyclooxygenase-2 protein expression. TNB also attenuated the expression of interleukin-1β, interleukin-6, interleukin-8, and tumor necrosis factor-α induced by C. acnes. Furthermore, TNB inhibited the nuclear factor-κB signaling pathway, a transcription factor known to regulate inflammatory mediators. Based on these results, this study suggests the potential of using TNB as natural material for the treatment of acnes and thus, supporting our postulation of biorenovation as an bioactivity improvement strategy.

Smoking-attributable Mortality in Korea, 2020: A Meta-analysis of 4 Databases

  • Eunsil Cheon;Yeun Soo Yang;Suyoung Jo;Jieun Hwang;Keum Ji Jung;Sunmi Lee;Seong Yong Park;Kyoungin Na;Soyeon Kim;Sun Ha Jee;Sung-il Cho
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.57 no.4
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    • pp.327-338
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    • 2024
  • Objectives: Estimating the number of deaths caused by smoking is crucial for developing and evaluating tobacco control and smoking cessation policies. This study aimed to determine smoking-attributable mortality (SAM) in Korea in 2020. Methods: Four large-scale cohorts from Korea were analyzed. A Cox proportional-hazards model was used to determine the hazard ratios (HRs) of smoking-related death. By conducting a meta-analysis of these HRs, the pooled HRs of smoking-related death for 41 diseases were estimated. Population-attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated based on the smoking prevalence for 1995 in conjunction with the pooled HRs. Subsequently, SAM was derived using the PAF and the number of deaths recorded for each disease in 2020. Results: The pooled HR for all-cause mortality attributable to smoking was 1.73 for current men smokers (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.53 to 1.95) and 1.63 for current women smokers (95% CI, 1.37 to 1.94). Smoking accounted for 33.2% of all-cause deaths in men and 4.6% in women. Additionally, it was a factor in 71.8% of men lung cancer deaths and 11.9% of women lung cancer deaths. In 2020, smoking was responsible for 53 930 men deaths and 6283 women deaths, totaling 60 213 deaths. Conclusions: Cigarette smoking was responsible for a significant number of deaths in Korea in 2020. Monitoring the impact and societal burden of smoking is essential for effective tobacco control and harm prevention policies.

Overall and cardiovascular mortality according to 10-year cardiovascular risk of the general health checkup: the Kangbuk Samsung Cohort Study

  • Youshik Jeong;Yesung Lee;Eunchan Mun;Eunhye Seo;Daehoon Kim;Jaehong Lee;Jinsook Jeong;Woncheol Lee
    • Annals of Occupational and Environmental Medicine
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    • v.34
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    • pp.40.1-40.9
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    • 2022
  • Background: According to the occupational accident status analysis in 2020, of 1,180 occupational deaths, 463 were caused by cardiovascular disease (CVD). Workers should be assessed for CVD risk at regular intervals to prevent work-related CVD in accordance with the rules on occupational safety and health standards. However, no previous study has addressed risk and mortality. Therefore, this longitudinal study was conducted to evaluate the relationship between 10-year cardiovascular risk of the general health checkup and mortality. Methods: The study included 545,859 participants who visited Kangbuk Samsung Total Healthcare Centers from January 1, 2002, to December 31, 2017. We performed 10-year cardiovascular risk assessment for the participants and the risk was divided into 4 groups (low, moderate, high, and very high). The study used death data from the Korea National Statistical Office for survival status as an outcome variable by December 31, 2019, and the cause of death based on the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10) was identified. Statistical analysis was performed using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, and the sum of the periods from the first visit to the date of death or December 31, 2019, was used as a time scale. We also performed a stratified analysis for age at baseline and sex. Results: During 5,253,627.9 person-years, 4,738 overall deaths and 654 cardiovascular deaths occurred. When the low-risk group was set as a reference, in the multivariable-adjusted model, the hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence interval [CI]) for overall mortality were 3.36 (2.87-3.95) in the moderate-risk group, 11.08 (9.27-13.25) in the high-risk group, and 21.20 (17.42-25.79) in the very-high-risk group, all of which were statistically significant. In cardiovascular deaths, the difference according to the risk classification was more pronounced. The HRs (95% CI) were 8.57 (4.95-14.83), 38.95 (21.77-69.69), and 78.81 (42.62-145.71) in each group. As a result of a subgroup analysis by age and sex, the HRs of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality tended to be higher in the high-risk group. Conclusions: This large-scale longitudinal study confirmed that the risk of death increases with the 10-year cardiovascular risk of general health checkup.

Differences in the Effects of Beta-Blockers Depending on Heart Rate at Discharge in Patients With Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction and Atrial Fibrillation

  • Young In Kim;Min-Soo Ahn;Byung-Su Yoo;Jang-Young Kim;Jung-Woo Son;Young Jun Park;Sung Hwa Kim;Dae Ryong Kang;Hae-Young Lee;Seok-Min Kang;Myeong-Chan Cho
    • International Journal of Heart Failure
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.119-126
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    • 2024
  • Background and Objectives: Beta-blockers (BBs) improve prognosis in heart failure (HF), which is mediated by lowering heart rate (HR). However, HR has no prognostic implication in atrial fibrillation (AF) and also BBs have not been shown to improve prognosis in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) with AF. This study assessed the prognostic implication of BB in HFpEF with AF according to discharge HR. Methods: From the Korean Acute Heart Failure Registry, 687 patients with HFpEF and AF were selected. Study subjects were divided into 4 groups based on 75 beats per minute (bpm) of HR at discharge and whether or not they were treated with BB at discharge. Results: Of the 687 patients with HFpEF and AF, 128 (36.1%) were in low HR group and 121 (36.4%) were in high HR group among those treated with BB at discharge. In high HR group, HR at discharge was significantly faster in BB non-users (85.5±9.1 bpm vs. 89.2±12.5 bpm, p=0.005). In the Cox model, BB did not improve 60-day rehospitalization (hazard ratio, 0.93;95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.35-2.47) or mortality (hazard ratio, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.22-2.74) in low HR group. However, in high HR group, BB treatment at discharge was associated with 82% reduced 60-day HF rehospitalization (hazard ratio, 0.18; 95% CI, 0.04-0.81), but not with mortality (hazard ratio, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.20-2.98). Conclusions: In HFpEF with AF, in patients with HR over 75 bpm at discharge, BB treatment at discharge was associated with a reduced 60-day rehospitalization rate.

Predicting Recurrence-Free Survival After Upfront Surgery in Resectable Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma: A Preoperative Risk Score Based on CA 19-9, CT, and 18F-FDG PET/CT

  • Boryeong Jeong;Minyoung Oh;Seung Soo Lee;Nayoung Kim;Jae Seung Kim;Woohyung Lee;Song Cheol Kim;Hyoung Jung Kim;Jin Hee Kim;Jae Ho Byun
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.25 no.7
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    • pp.644-655
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    • 2024
  • Objective: To develop and validate a preoperative risk score incorporating carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9, CT, and fluorine18-fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) PET/CT variables to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) after upfront surgery in patients with resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Materials and Methods: Patients with resectable PDAC who underwent upfront surgery between 2014 and 2017 (development set) or between 2018 and 2019 (test set) were retrospectively evaluated. In the development set, a risk-scoring system was developed using the multivariable Cox proportional hazards model, including variables associated with RFS. In the test set, the performance of the risk score was evaluated using the Harrell C-index and compared with that of the postoperative pathological tumor stage. Results: A total of 529 patients, including 335 (198 male; mean age ± standard deviation, 64 ± 9 years) and 194 (103 male; mean age, 66 ± 9 years) patients in the development and test sets, respectively, were evaluated. The risk score included five variables predicting RFS: tumor size (hazard ratio [HR], 1.29 per 1 cm increment; P < 0.001), maximal standardized uptake values of tumor ≥ 5.2 (HR, 1.29; P = 0.06), suspicious regional lymph nodes (HR, 1.43; P = 0.02), possible distant metastasis on 18F-FDG PET/CT (HR, 2.32; P = 0.03), and CA 19-9 (HR, 1.02 per 100 U/mL increment; P = 0.002). In the test set, the risk score showed good performance in predicting RFS (C-index, 0.61), similar to that of the pathologic tumor stage (C-index, 0.64; P = 0.17). Conclusion: The proposed risk score based on preoperative CA 19-9, CT, and 18F-FDG PET/CT variables may have clinical utility in selecting high-risk patients with resectable PDAC.