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Stochastic structures of world's death counts after World War II

  • Lee, Jae J.
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.353-371
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    • 2022
  • This paper analyzes death counts after World War II of several countries to identify and to compare their stochastic structures. The stochastic structures that this paper entertains are three structural time series models, a local level with a random walk model, a fixed local linear trend model and a local linear trend model. The structural time series models assume that a time series can be formulated directly with the unobserved components such as trend, slope, seasonal, cycle and daily effect. Random effect of each unobserved component is characterized by its own stochastic structure and a distribution of its irregular component. The structural time series models use the Kalman filter to estimate unknown parameters of a stochastic model, to predict future data, and to do filtering data. This paper identifies the best-fitted stochastic model for three types of death counts (Female, Male and Total) of each country. Two diagnostic procedures are used to check the validity of fitted models. Three criteria, AIC, BIC and SSPE are used to select the best-fitted valid stochastic model for each type of death counts of each country.

Revisiting a Gravity Model of Immigration: A Panel Data Analysis of Economic Determinants

  • Kim, Kyunghun
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.143-169
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    • 2022
  • This study investigates the effect of economic factors on immigration using the gravity model of immigration. Cross-sectional regression and panel data analyses are conducted from 2000 to 2019 using the OECD International Migration Database, which consists of 36 destination countries and 201 countries of origin. The Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood method, which can effectively correct potential biased estimates caused by zeros in the immigration data, is used for estimation. The results indicate that the economic factors strengthened after the global financial crisis. Additionally, this effect varies depending on the type of immigration (the income level of origin country). The gravity model applied to immigration performs reasonably well, but it is necessary to consider the country-specific and time-varying characteristics.

Two Species of Argyresthia Hübner, [1825] (Lepidoptera: Argyresthiidae) New to Korea (광택집나방과 광택집나방속(Argyresthia Hübner, [1825])의 한국미기록 2종)

  • Jae-Cheon Sohn
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.62 no.1
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    • pp.15-19
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    • 2023
  • Two species of Argyresthia, A. subrimosa Meyrick and A. umbrina Liu, Wang et Li are reported for the first time from Korea. The collecting data show that A. subrimosa occurs in two remote islands, Ulleungdo and Jejudo in the country. These two local populations are compared with each other in external and genital morphology. Argyresthia umbrina is first recorded outside the type country, China. Photographs of the habitus and genitalia are provided for the two species treated here.

The Power-train for the Bicycle adopting the Timing belt

  • Bu-Seob Sien;Dong-Gu Sien;Sung-Cheon Park;Young-Woong Kwon
    • International journal of advanced smart convergence
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.201-205
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    • 2024
  • Currently, the most important issue on the earth is global warming, which causes climate change and leads to disasters. For this reason, each country is focusing on renewable energy, carbon neutrality, environmentally friendly energy and transportation. Bicycles used as short-distance vehicles do not emit gases harmful to the human body that pollute the Earth's atmosphere. Also, the use of bicycles has the effect of improving the health of people, and each country is designing a short distance transportation network using bicycles. In this study, we propose a model of a bicycle power-train that can use a belt as a power transmission medium. The basic principles and methods for applying the proposed new type of power-train to bicycles are presented.

Classification and Water Quality Management of Agricultural Reservoirs (농업용 저수지의 유형분류 및 수질관리)

  • 윤경섭;이광식;김형중;김호일
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.45 no.4
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    • pp.66-77
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    • 2003
  • Monitoring data from agricultural reservoirs throughout the country were analyzed to classify agricultural reservoirs according to physical characteristics and COD concentrations, and evaluate the relationships bet-ween water quality items. The physical and chemical data of total 498 reservoirs were analyzed from 1990 to 2001. Average COD, TP, TN, Chl-a, SS concentrations for the reservoirs and pollutant loadings from their watersheds were used for the analysis. It was possible that reservoirs were classified to 4 types using the relationships between the ratios of effective storage per water surface (ST/WS ratio) and COD concentrations. It is recommended that the improvement measures of polluted reservoirs should be performed as following order : integrated consolidation type (complex mechanism type) $\rightarrow$ watershed consolidation type $\rightarrow$ integrated consolidation type (external mechanism type) $\rightarrow$ in-lake consolidation type $\rightarrow$ conservation type and the depth (ST/WS ratio) of reservoir maintained over 5~6 m for water quality improvement. The decision coefficients ($r^2$) between Chl-a and other items (COD, T-P, SS, T-N) were 0.6915, 0.6732, 0.5327, 0.3352, respectively. Therefore, reservoir managers could evaluate the trophic state of reservoirs by COD concentrations.

A Study on the Space Composition and the Visitor Circulation of the Theme Museum in Jeju (제주지역 테마박물관의 공간구성과 관람동선체계에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Chul-Min;Hong, Ji-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Rural Architecture
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.53-61
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    • 2008
  • There are many ways to know the social and cultural level of each country. Among them, a theme museum are not only the best place to understand the history, the life style and the culture level. This thesis has the purpose to provide the basic material through analyzing the space composition and the visitor circulation of the theme museum and understanding the relativity of them so that the new theme museums can be designed in the right direction. So I chose the independence museum that opened with in recent 10 years, finally middle & small size's theme museum were selected. The results from the case study are as follow. Firstly, according to a result of analyzing the characteristics of space composition with the ratio of each part's area, space composition of each museum is mainly for the exhibition part, but rarely for the education part. Secondly, theme museums in Jeju have the limit of diversity of circulation method because they have not the free circulation method. Thirdly, the characteristics of space composition is divided into basic type, center-hall enter type, around the center-hall type and guidance type. Fourthly, by analyzing the characteristics of space composition and circulation method of traffic line, it's realized that selective circulation method was applied to basic type and center-hall enter type, and guidance circulation method was applied to around the center-hall type and guidance type.

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A Study on the Decision Making Procedure of Clean-up Endpoints for Oiled Shorelines in Korea (우리나라 해안오염 방제종료 의사결정절차의 고찰)

  • Kim, Dong-Geun;Jeon, Hae-Jong;Kim, Jae-Dong
    • Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.712-720
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    • 2012
  • Recently, many problems related on shoreline response to spill oil were exposed again on a occasion of M/T Hebei spirit accident even though the weakness on the shoreline response system has been brought up since M/T Sea Prince oil spill accident. Therefore the establishment of shoreline response system that best suits our country is needed through considering the response system of well-developed country. The socioeconomic conflict between the persons concerned on the clean-up endpoints can be sharpened in Korea because the frequency of coastal use of our country is too high compared to other countries. Thus procedural justification, that is, how the clean-up endpoints be established is more important than what type of clean-up endpoints be used. In the present paper, we attempted to suggest a new manner on the decision making system for clean-up endpoints that best suits our country. The decision making system for clean-up endpoints need to be divided into two steps, that is, set-up step of clean-up endpoints criteria and decision step of clean-up endpoints. The decision making organization of local governments play a key role in case of set-up step of clean-up endpoints criteria, while the response command headquarters under Korean coast guard and decision making organization of local governments codecide whether the clean-up endpoints criteria is fits or not.

A Study on the Characteristics of the Form and the Preference of the Main Gates of Universities in Korea (대학교문의 조형적 특성과 선호도에 관한 연구)

  • 김동찬;성현지
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.110-121
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    • 1999
  • The purpose of this study is to focus on the characteristics of the form and preference of the main gates of universities. The gate of a university have both functions and artistic design aspects. Fifty-two universities selected for this study were placed all around country except for Je-ju island. The following two research methods were used for this study. 1) an analysis of form character through a classification of the types. 2) and analysis of preference to the gates through a side show. The results are summarized as follows: 1. Main gates of universities were classified by covered-type and uncovered-type in existence of cover. And they were classified by eighteen types in detail. 2. Visual preference have been analyed by using the regression, the result is as follows: Y=-0.357+0.630 X$_4$+0.377X$_1$+0.075X$_2$-0.015X$_3$($R^2$=0.971, X$_4$;harmony, X $_1$;speciality, X$_2$;softness, X$_3$;complex) 3. The gate of Chung-Ang university(Ahn Sung campus) is the highest of all the universities at the average of preference 4.32 through result of slide show. Covered type has a higher preference than uncovered type. This has a good modification and decoration in front side type of main gate.

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Beef Usage and Dietitians' Perceptions of Beef Quality in Institutional Foodservice (단체급식소 쇠고기 이용 실태 및 영양사의 쇠고기 품질에 대한 인식)

  • Lee, Kyung-Eun;Joo, Shin-Youn;Yim, Kyung-Sook;Lee, Hong-Mie
    • Journal of the Korean Dietetic Association
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.129-142
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study was to compare the usage of beef and foodservice managers' perceptions of beef quality by foodservice type. A survey was conducted on 546 dietitians, and 499 acceptable responses were used for data analysis. By weight, pork was the most used meat in foodservice institutions, followed by poultry and beef. More than half of the foodservices selected meat suppliers by competitive bidding. Approximately 85.8% of the respondents used Hanwoo beef, followed by Australian beef and Youku beef. Beef type differed significantly by foodservice type (P<0.001): most of the schools and social welfare facilities used Hanwoo beef, whereas most hospitals and business/industry operations used Australian beef. When purchasing beef, safety of beef was rated the most important, while eco-friendliness was rated the least important. Most of the dietitians understood that marbling is one of the determinants of the beef quality, but were not aware of other components. Dietitians that selected Hanwoo and Youku beef were more satisfied with quality, taste, nutrition, freshness, country of origin, package, customer, preference, and availability for various menus than those who used imported beef. Dietitians who used Hanwoo beef were the most satisfied with country of origin, whereas the others were the most satisfied with safety. Since the dietitians are in charge of planning menus and selecting meat suppliers at foodservice institutions, they should make knowledgeable decisions by understanding meat supply systems and quality of beef.

A Study on the Evaluation of Carbon Neutral Housing Development through SBTool (SBTool을 활용한 탄소중립형 주거단지 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Jeon, Woo-Seon;Choi, Joon-Sung;Oh, Deog-Seong
    • KIEAE Journal
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.83-92
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    • 2012
  • Recently, many countries are tightening a variety of policies and controls with great efforts to reduce emission of GHGs(Greenhouse Gases) as concern for climate change heightens. The purpose of the study is to provide guidelines for planning and evaluate element and evaluate housing development. The elements are also assorted into 6 sections and 30 planning elements were drawn from them. It is drawn to 6 sections, 27 categories, 31 evaluation elements except cultural and perceptual aspects unrelated to planning elements from these elements. Case analysis has shown that most of planning elements were applied because these cases obtained environment-friendly certification in the country. Followings are the common characteristics. Firstly, it showed that application of planning element in all cases is excellent. Secondly, the case with excellent application of elements related with energy and application degree obtained excellent degree i environment-friendly certification in the country. Finally, application of planning elements related with renewable energy was in poor condition in all cases. With the utilization of SBTool, the evaluation results about planning elements of housing complex of Carbon emissions-reduction type showed that CASE-A obtained 11.17 points and CASE-B obtained 9.24 points. In the case of renewable energy section, it was confirmed that the evaluation doesn't work well. As a result, changes of planning elements affect environment-friendly extent. It was confirmed that accessibility to housing complex of Carbon emissions-reduction type could change. Estimated result of Amount of Carbon emission showed that annual energy consumption per each family of CASE-A is $4,269,964MJ/m^2$, as a result of which, Carbon emission is $234,815kg/m^2$. And annual energy consumption per family of CASE-B is $4,197,563MJ/m^2$, as a result of which, Carbon emission is $214,584kg/m^2$. Application of planning elements in the aspect of housing complex of Carbon emissions-reduction type shows that the level for Carbon emissions-reduction is high level. And study with assessment from the draft should be followed.