• Title/Summary/Keyword: Cost Prediction

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An early warning and decision support system to reduce weather and climate risks in agricultural production

  • Nakagawa, Hiroshi;Ohno, Hiroyuki;Yoshida, Hiroe;Fushimi, Erina;Sasaki, Kaori;Maruyama, Atsushi;Nakano, Satoshi
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Crop Science Conference
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    • 2017.06a
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    • pp.303-303
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    • 2017
  • Japanese agriculture has faced to several threats: aging and decrease of farmer population, global competition, and the risk of climate change as well as harsh and variable weather. On the other hands, the number of large scale farms is increasing, because farm lands have been being aggregated to fewer numbers of farms. Cost cutting, development of efficient ways to manage complicatedly scattered farm lands, maintaining yield and quality under variable weather conditions, are required to adapt to changing environments. Information and communications technology (ICT) would contribute to solve such problems and to create innovative technologies. Thus we have been developing an early warning and decision support system to reduce weather and climate risks for rice, wheat and soybean production in Japan. The concept and prototype of the system will be shown. The system consists of a weather data system (Agro-Meteorological Grid Square Data System, AMGSDS), decision support contents where information is automatically created by crop models and delivers information to users via internet. AMGSDS combines JMA's Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System (AMeDAS) data, numerical weather forecast data and normal values, for all of Japan with about 1km Grid Square throughout years. Our climate-smart system provides information on the prediction of crop phenology, created with weather forecast data and crop phenology models, as an important function. The system also makes recommendations for crop management, such as nitrogen-topdressing, suitable harvest time, water control, pesticide spray. We are also developing methods to perform risk analysis on weather-related damage to crop production. For example, we have developed an algorism to determine the best transplanting date in rice under a given environment, using the results of multi-year simulation, in order to answer the question "when is the best transplanting date to minimize yield loss, to avoid low temperature damage and to avoid high temperature damage?".

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Numerical Analysis on Cutting Power of Disc Cutter with Joint Distribution Patterns (절리분포 양상에 따른 디스크커터의 절삭력에 관한 수치해석적 연구)

  • Lee, Seung-Joong;Choi, Sung-O.
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.151-163
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    • 2011
  • The LCM test is one of the most powerful and reliable methods for designing the disc cutter and for predicting the TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine) performance. It has an advantage to predict the actual load on disc cutter from the laboratory test on the real-size large rock samples, however, it also has a disadvantage to transport and/or prepare the large rock samples and to need an extra cost for experiment. Moreover it is not easy to execute the test for jointed rock mass, and sometimes the design model estimated from the test can not be applied to the real design of disc cutter. In order to break this critical point, lots of numerical studies have been performed. PFC2D can simulate crack propagation and rock fragmentation effectively, because it is useful in particle flow analysis. Consequently, in this study, the PFC2D has been adopted for numerical analysis on cutting power of disc cutter according to the different angle of joint, the different direction of joint, and the different space of joint with jointed rock mass models. From the numerical analyses, it was concluded that the bigger cutting power of disc cutter was needed for reverse cutting direction to joint rather than for forward direction, and the cutting power of disc cutter was increased with decreasing the dip angle of joint and decreasing the space of joints in reverse cutting direction. The more precise numerical model for disc cutter can be developed from comparison between the numerical results and LCM test results, and the resonable guideline is expected for prediction of TBM performance and disc cutter.

Benchmark Test of CFD Software Packages for Sunroof Buffeting in Hyundai Simplified Model (차량 썬루프 버페팅 현상에 대한 전산 해석 소프트웨어의 예측 성능 벤치마크 연구)

  • Cho, Munhwan;Oh, Chisung;Kim, HyoungGun;Ih, Kang-duck
    • Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.171-179
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    • 2014
  • Sunroof buffeting is one of the most critical issues in the vehicle wind noise phenomena. The experimental approach to solve this issue typically requires a lot of time and resources. To reduce time and cost, the numerical approach could be taken, which can also privide more insights into physical phenomena involved in sunroof buffeting, only if the accuracy in its predictions are guranteed. The benchmark test of various numerical solvers is carried out for the buffeting behavior of a simplified vehicle body, the Hyundai simplified model(HSM). The results of each solver are compared to the experimental measurements in a Hyundai aeroacoustic wind tunnel(HAWT) at various wind speeds. In particular, acoustic response tests were performed and the results were provided prior to all simulations in order to consider the real world effects that could introduce discrepancies between the numerical and experimental approaches. Through this study, most solvers can demonstrate an acceptable accuracy level for actual commercial development and high precision experimental data and computational prediction priories can be shared in order to promote the numerical accuracy level of each numerical solver.

Rolling Horizon Implementation for Real-Time Operation of Dynamic Traffic Assignment Model (동적통행배정모형의 실시간 교통상황 반영)

  • SHIN, Seong Il;CHOI, Kee Choo;OH, Young Tae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.135-150
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    • 2002
  • The basic assumption of analytical Dynamic Traffic Assignment models is that traffic demand and network conditions are known as a priori and unchanging during the whole planning horizon. This assumption may not be realistic in the practical traffic situation because traffic demand and network conditions nay vary from time to time. The rolling horizon implementation recognizes a fact : The Prediction of origin-destination(OD) matrices and network conditions is usually more accurate in a short period of time, while further into the whole horizon there exists a substantial uncertainty. In the rolling horizon implementation, therefore, rather than assuming time-dependent OD matrices and network conditions are known at the beginning of the horizon, it is assumed that the deterministic information of OD and traffic conditions for a short period are possessed, whereas information beyond this short period will not be available until the time rolls forward. This paper introduces rolling horizon implementation to enable a multi-class analytical DTA model to respond operationally to dynamic variations of both traffic demand and network conditions. In the paper, implementation procedure is discussed in detail, and practical solutions for some raised issues of 1) unfinished trips and 2) rerouting strategy of these trips, are proposed. Computational examples and results are presented and analyzed.

Age-Related Fecal Calprotectin Concentrations in Healthy Adults (건강한 성인의 연령별 분변 칼프로텍틴의 농도)

  • Park, Shin Young
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Laboratory Science
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    • v.52 no.3
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    • pp.181-187
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    • 2020
  • Fecal calprotectin (FC) is a marker used for the differential diagnosis of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). FC is also used to determine the effects of treatment and recurrence prediction because of its non-decomposition by bacteria, relative week stability at room temperature, and its uniform distribution within feces. Healthy male and female adults between the age of 30 and 80 living in Jeju were selected for this study. The FC concentration in the healthy control group (N=45) was distributed widely as 0~545.9 ㎍/g and showed a significant difference with age in healthy adults. The FC concentration in adults over 70 years old (80.6 years on average) was 160.3 ㎍/g. The result is approximately 10 times higher than in adults below 50 years (44 years on average), with FC concentrations at 15.88 ㎍/g. Moreover, adults over 50 years, with an average age of 59.6, had FC concentrations of 35.46 ㎍/g, which were two times higher than the below 50-year-old group, confirming the significant correlation between age and FC concentration. As the FC test is a non-invasive and cost-effective objective marker in IBD tests, a suitable cut-off value is required for different ages. This study provides the baseline data for differential diagnoses.

Modification of Cutoff Values for HE4, CA125, the Risk of Malignancy Index, and the Risk of Malignancy Algorithm for Ovarian Cancer Detection in Jakarta, Indonesia

  • Winarto, Hariyono;Laihad, Bismarck Joel;Nuranna, Laila
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.1949-1953
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    • 2014
  • Background: CA125 and HE4 are used in calculating Risk of Malignancy Algorithm (ROMA); and Risk of Malignancy Index (RMI). However, studies showed that normal levels of CA125, and HE4 differ among ethnicities such as between Asians and Caucasians, thus affecting the accuracy of the RMI score and ROMA in predicting ovarian malignancy. This study aimed to determine whether new or modified cutoff values for Ca125, HE4, the RMI score, and ROMA resulted in a better prediction of malignancy compared with the previous or standard ones. Materials and Methods: Serum level of CA125 and HE4 from 128 patients with diagnosis of ovarian tumor that had been collected before surgery at Cipto Mangunkusumo General Hospital (CMH) in Jakarta from November 2010 until May 2011 were reviewed and analysed. The standard cutoff values of these biomarkers, RMI, and ROMA were modified by using logistic regression model. The modified cutoff values were compared to the standard cutoff values in terms of sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy. Results: The modified cutoff value of CA125, HE4, RMI score and ROMA were 165.2 U/mL, 103.4 pM, 368.7, 28/54. The sensitivity and specificity of the modified cutoff values CA125, HE 4, RMI score and ROMA in differentiating benign from malignant and borderline were 67% and 75,4%; 73.1% and 85.2%; 73.1% and 80.3%; and 77.6% and 86.9%. While the sensitivity and specificity of the standard cutoff value of CA125; HE4; RMI score; and ROMA were 91% and 24.6%; 83.6% and 65%; 80.6% and 65.6%; and 91.0% and 42.6%. The accuracy of modified cutoff values compared with standard cutoff values were: 71.2% vs 59.3%, 78.9% vs 75% vs, 76.5% vs 73.4%, and 82% vs 67.9%. Conclusions: The new or modified cutoff values of Ca125, HE4, RMI score and ROMA resulted in higher accuracy compared to the previous or standard ones, at the cost of reduced sensitivity.

An Empirical Study on the Effects of e-Mail Marketing : A focus on e-Mail Campaign for Credit Card Consumers (이메일 마케팅 성과에 관한 연구: 신용카드 고객을 대상으로 한 캠페인을 중심으로)

  • Shin, Sung-Hoon;Chung, Soo-Yeon;Park, Cheol
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.49-67
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    • 2009
  • E-mail marketing is the cheapest channel in target marketing. The channel works amazingly well for marketers who know how to use it. The e-mail marketers are able to integrate transactional and behavioral data to improve the targeting content of e-mail marketing campaigns. The cost in e-mail marketing is low and e-mail marketing makes no pollution. But, the e-mail response rate is lower than all the other channels. So, it is very hard for companies to increase their sales volumes, though the companies are ready to execute e-mail marketing campaigns on the side of computer systems. Marketers can send messages easily to target customers compared to other channels. But, the possibility to be read by the customers is low. Normal e-mails are continually devalued by spam mails. This study shows the influence of e-mail marketing to increase sales used by credit cards, on the basis of the real data promoted by A bank, in the Republic of Korea. The analysis on the traits of the respondent can help marketers to target customers. If additional studies on the response prediction model on the basis of traits of potential respondents are done, the targeting method to increase the effectiveness of e-mail marketing will be better structured and organized.

Lifetime test of batteries for BLE modules for site identification of vessel's crews and passengers (SIVCP) (SIVCP용 BLE 모듈의 배터리 수명시험)

  • Kwon, Hyuk-joo;Kim, Min-Gwon;Kim, Yoon-Sik;Lee, Sung-Geun
    • Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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    • v.39 no.7
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    • pp.754-759
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    • 2015
  • Nowadays, short distance communication systems with low power energy (LPE) are developed for identification and monitoring of site identification of vessel crews and passengers (SIVCP). LPE communication modules, such as Bluetooth low energy (BLE) and Zigbee, are used for short distance communications with LPE. These modules enable 1:N communications and their popularity is growing since the modules can be mounted on movable objects, such as mobile devices and human body. When these modules are used, the important factor that affects their operation time and design are the capacity and size of battery. Therefore, they must be made as small as possible, and the battery should be selected to be slightly smaller than the module. In this study, we calculate the theoretical life of batteries used in SIVCP BLE modules using data sheet and discharge characteristic graph under the condition of a 1/250 transmission-ratio (TR). We thus calculate experimental life by measuring transmission current for the same TR, and low speed mode current for a 1/5000 TR and measure long-term experimental life using 1/25 TR for days. Through these experiments, we verify experimental methods for the prediction and extension of battery life that would enable us to select appropriate sizes of batteries based on vessel usage and passenger types. The selections of the module TR and battery size are important factors affecting the cost reduction of module design, the battery maintenance, and passenger convenience.

Development of an Improved Numerical Methodology for Design and Modification of Large Area Plasma Processing Chamber

  • Kim, Ho-Jun;Lee, Seung-Mu;Won, Je-Hyeong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Vacuum Society Conference
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    • 2014.02a
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    • pp.221-221
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    • 2014
  • The present work proposes an improved numerical simulator for design and modification of large area capacitively coupled plasma (CCP) processing chamber. CCP, as notoriously well-known, demands the tremendously huge computational cost for carrying out transient analyses in realistic multi-dimensional models, because electron dissociations take place in a much smaller time scale (${\Delta}t{\approx}10-8{\sim}10-10$) than time scale of those happened between neutrals (${\Delta}t{\approx}10-1{\sim}10-3$), due to the rf drive frequencies of external electric field. And also, for spatial discretization of electron flux (Je), exponential scheme such as Scharfetter-Gummel method needs to be used in order to alleviate the numerical stiffness and resolve exponential change of spatial distribution of electron temperature (Te) and electron number density (Ne) in the vicinity of electrodes. Due to such computational intractability, it is prohibited to simulate CCP deposition in a three-dimension within acceptable calculation runtimes (<24 h). Under the situation where process conditions require thickness non-uniformity below 5%, however, detailed flow features of reactive gases induced from three-dimensional geometric effects such as gas distribution through the perforated plates (showerhead) should be considered. Without considering plasma chemistry, we therefore simulated flow, temperature and species fields in three-dimensional geometry first, and then, based on that data, boundary conditions of two-dimensional plasma discharge model are set. In the particular case of SiH4-NH3-N2-He CCP discharge to produce deposition of SiNxHy thin film, a cylindrical showerhead electrode reactor was studied by numerical modeling of mass, momentum and energy transports for charged particles in an axi-symmetric geometry. By solving transport equations of electron and radicals simultaneously, we observed that the way how source gases are consumed in the non-isothermal flow field and such consequences on active species production were outlined as playing the leading parts in the processes. As an example of application of the model for the prediction of the deposited thickness uniformity in a 300 mm wafer plasma processing chamber, the results were compared with the experimentally measured deposition profiles along the radius of the wafer varying inter-electrode gap. The simulation results were in good agreement with experimental data.

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Evaluation of Resistance Spot Weldability of SGAFC1180 Steel (SGAFC1180 TRIP강재의 저항 점용접성 평가)

  • Shin, Seok-Woo;Lee, Jong-Hun;Kim, Dae-Hwan;Park, Sang-Heup
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.12
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    • pp.644-649
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    • 2017
  • In the automobile industry, there is growing demand for lightweight vehicles due to environmental problems and rising oil prices. Therefore, aluminum alloys and special materials are being used to reduce the weight of vehicles, but there are still many difficulties to overcome in terms of cost and strength. Therefore, the application of advanced high strength steel (AHSS)is increasing. AHSS has good strength and formability.Safety regulations are becoming stricter, and 1.2-GPa super-high-strength steels are gradually being applied for the center pillar and roof rails. Thus, the application of different kinds of steels in automobile bodiesis also increasing gradually. This study evaluates the resistance point weldability and the characteristics of a welded part of SGAFC1180 1.2t steel. A simulation was used to observe the nugget formation and its growth behavior. The prediction performance showed a similar tendency within an error rate of 10%. Also, the effect of this behavior on the process resistance and dynamic resistance was investigated,along with the correlation between the shear tensile strength and nugget diameter.