• Title/Summary/Keyword: Continuous Multiple Prediction

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Development of a Sales Prediction Model of Electronic Appliances using Artificial Neural Networks (인공신경망을 이용한 가전제품의 판매예측모델 개발)

  • Seo, Kwang-Kyu
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.12 no.11
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    • pp.209-214
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    • 2014
  • Despite the recession of the global market, the domestic electronic appliance companies dominated TV market in North America. They took both the premium and mid-priced product market and achieved both profitability and volume due to strong product competitiveness and brand power. Despite doing well in the North American market, the domestic TV manufacturers are worried about product development, marketing and sales strategies to remain the continuous competitiveness in the TV market. This study proposes the a sales prediction model of electronic appliances using sales data of S company from the North American market. We develop the sales prediction models based on multiple regression analysis and artificial neural network and compare two models. Especially, this study analyzes the relevance between the TV sales and TV main features in order to improve the price competitiveness or improve the value of TV products.

Impact of Ensemble Member Size on Confidence-based Selection in Bankruptcy Prediction (부도예측을 위한 확신 기반의 선택 접근법에서 앙상블 멤버 사이즈의 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Na-Ra;Shin, Kyung-Shik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.55-71
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    • 2013
  • The prediction model is the main factor affecting the performance of a knowledge-based system for bankruptcy prediction. Earlier studies on prediction modeling have focused on the building of a single best model using statistical and artificial intelligence techniques. However, since the mid-1980s, integration of multiple techniques (hybrid techniques) and, by extension, combinations of the outputs of several models (ensemble techniques) have, according to the experimental results, generally outperformed individual models. An ensemble is a technique that constructs a set of multiple models, combines their outputs, and produces one final prediction. The way in which the outputs of ensemble members are combined is one of the important issues affecting prediction accuracy. A variety of combination schemes have been proposed in order to improve prediction performance in ensembles. Each combination scheme has advantages and limitations, and can be influenced by domain and circumstance. Accordingly, decisions on the most appropriate combination scheme in a given domain and contingency are very difficult. This paper proposes a confidence-based selection approach as part of an ensemble bankruptcy-prediction scheme that can measure unified confidence, even if ensemble members produce different types of continuous-valued outputs. The present experimental results show that when varying the number of models to combine, according to the creation type of ensemble members, the proposed combination method offers the best performance in the ensemble having the largest number of models, even when compared with the methods most often employed in bankruptcy prediction.

An adaptive time-delay recurrent neural network for temporal learning and prediction (시계열패턴의 학습과 예측을 위한 적응 시간지연 회귀 신경회로망)

  • 김성식
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.534-540
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    • 1996
  • This paper presents an Adaptive Time-Delay Recurrent Neural Network (ATRN) for learning and recognition of temporal correlations of temporal patterns. The ATRN employs adaptive time-delays and recurrent connections, which are inspired from neurobiology. In the ATRN, the adaptive time-delays make the ATRN choose the optimal values of time-delays for the temporal location of the important information in the input parrerns, and the recurrent connections enable the network to encode and integrate temporal information of sequences which have arbitrary interval time and arbitrary length of temporal context. The ATRN described in this paper, ATNN proposed by Lin, and TDNN introduced by Waibel were simulated and applied to the chaotic time series preditcion of Mackey-Glass delay-differential equation. The simulation results show that the normalized mean square error (NMSE) of ATRN is 0.0026, while the NMSE values of ATNN and TDNN are 0.014, 0.0117, respectively, and in temporal learning, employing recurrent links in the network is more effective than putting multiple time-delays into the neurons. The best performance is attained bythe ATRN. This ATRN will be sell applicable for temporally continuous domains, such as speech recognition, moving object recognition, motor control, and time-series prediction.

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Small Target Detecting and Tracking Using Mean Shifter Guided Kalman Filter

  • Ye, Soo-Young;Joo, Jae-Heum;Nam, Ki-Gon
    • Transactions on Electrical and Electronic Materials
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.187-192
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    • 2013
  • Because of the importance of small target detection in infrared images, many studies have been carried out in this area. Using a Kalman filter and mean shift algorithm, this study proposes an algorithm to track multiple small moving targets even in cases of target disappearance and appearance in serial infrared images in an environment with many noises. Difference images, which highlight the background images estimated with a background estimation filter from the original images, have a relatively very bright value, which becomes a candidate target area. Multiple target tracking consists of a Kalman filter section (target position prediction) and candidate target classification section (target selection). The system removes error detection from the detection results of candidate targets in still images and associates targets in serial images. The final target detection locations were revised with the mean shift algorithm to have comparatively low tracking location errors and allow for continuous tracking with standard model updating. In the experiment with actual marine infrared serial images, the proposed system was compared with the Kalman filter method and mean shift algorithm. As a result, the proposed system recorded the lowest tracking location errors and ensured stable tracking with no tracking location diffusion.

Multi-Cellular Natural Convection in the Melt during Convection- Dominated Melting

  • Kim, Sin;Kim, Min-Chan
    • Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.94-101
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    • 2002
  • Convection-dominated melting in a rectangular cavity is analyzed numerically with particular attention to the multi-cellular flows in the melt. At the earlier stage of the melting, the melt region is quite similar to a cavity with high aspect rati71, where the multi-cellular natural convection appears. Numerical results show that the formation and evolution of the multiple flow cells in the melt region is approximately similar to t]tat of a single-phase flow in a tall cavity with the same aspect ratio; however, the continuous change of the melt region due to the melting affects the detailed process. Also, numerical aspects for the prediction of the detailed flow structure in the melt are discussed.

Applicability Evaluation of Spatio-Temporal Data Fusion Using Fine-scale Optical Satellite Image: A Study on Fusion of KOMPSAT-3A and Sentinel-2 Satellite Images (고해상도 광학 위성영상을 이용한 시공간 자료 융합의 적용성 평가: KOMPSAT-3A 및 Sentinel-2 위성영상의 융합 연구)

  • Kim, Yeseul;Lee, Kwang-Jae;Lee, Sun-Gu
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.37 no.6_3
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    • pp.1931-1942
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    • 2021
  • As the utility of an optical satellite image with a high spatial resolution (i.e., fine-scale) has been emphasized, recently, various studies of the land surface monitoring using those have been widely carried out. However, the usefulness of fine-scale satellite images is limited because those are acquired at a low temporal resolution. To compensate for this limitation, the spatiotemporal data fusion can be applied to generate a synthetic image with a high spatio-temporal resolution by fusing multiple satellite images with different spatial and temporal resolutions. Since the spatio-temporal data fusion models have been developed for mid or low spatial resolution satellite images in the previous studies, it is necessary to evaluate the applicability of the developed models to the satellite images with a high spatial resolution. For this, this study evaluated the applicability of the developed spatio-temporal fusion models for KOMPSAT-3A and Sentinel-2 images. Here, an Enhanced Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Fusion Model (ESTARFM) and Spatial Time-series Geostatistical Deconvolution/Fusion Model (STGDFM), which use the different information for prediction, were applied. As a result of this study, it was found that the prediction performance of STGDFM, which combines temporally continuous reflectance values, was better than that of ESTARFM. Particularly, the prediction performance of STGDFM was significantly improved when it is difficult to simultaneously acquire KOMPSAT and Sentinel-2 images at a same date due to the low temporal resolution of KOMPSAT images. From the results of this study, it was confirmed that STGDFM, which has relatively better prediction performance by combining continuous temporal information, can compensate for the limitation to the low revisit time of fine-scale satellite images.

Evaluation of SPACE Code Prediction Capability for CEDM Nozzle Break Experiment with Safety Injection Failure (안전주입 실패를 동반한 제어봉구동장치 관통부 파단 사고 실험 기반 국내 안전해석코드 SPACE 예측 능력 평가)

  • Nam, Kyung Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.80-88
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    • 2022
  • The Korean nuclear industry had developed the SPACE (Safety and Performance Analysis Code for nuclear power plants) code, which adopts a two-fluid, three-field model that is comprised of gas, continuous liquid and droplet fields and has the capability to simulate three-dimensional models. According to the revised law by the Nuclear Safety and Security Commission (NSSC) in Korea, the multiple failure accidents that must be considered for the accident management plan of a nuclear power plant was determined based on the lessons learned from the Fukushima accident. Generally, to improve the reliability of the calculation results of a safety analysis code, verification is required for the separate and integral effect experiments. Therefore, the goal of this work is to verify the calculation capability of the SPACE code for multiple failure accidents. For this purpose, an experiment was conducted to simulate a Control Element Drive Mechanism (CEDM) break with a safety injection failure using the ATLAS test facility, which is operated by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). This experiment focused on the comparison between the experiment results and code calculation results to verify the performance of the SPACE code. The results of the overall system transient response using the SPACE code showed similar trends with the experimental results for parameters such as the system pressure, mass flow rate, and collapsed water level in component. In conclusion, it can be concluded that the SPACE code has sufficient capability to simulate a CEDM break with a safety injection failure accident.

Prediction of Land Surface Temperature by Land Cover Type in Urban Area (도시지역에서 토지피복 유형별 지표면 온도 예측 분석)

  • Kim, Geunhan
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.37 no.6_3
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    • pp.1975-1984
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    • 2021
  • Urban expansion results in raising the temperature in the city, which can cause social, economic and physical damage. In order to prevent the urban heat island and reduce the urban land surface temperature, it is important to quantify the cooling effect of the features of the urban space. Therefore, in order to understand the relationship between each object of land cover and the land surface temperature in Seoul, the land cover map was classified into 6 classes. And the correlation and multiple regression analysis between land surface temperature and the area of objects, perimeter/area, and normalized difference vegetation index was analyzed. As a result of the analysis, the normalized difference vegetation index showed a high correlation with the land surface temperature. Also, in multiple regression analysis, the normalized difference vegetation index exerted a higher influence on the land surface temperature prediction than other coefficients. However, the explanatory power of the derived models as a result of multiple regression analysis was low. In the future, if continuous monitoring is performed using high-resolution MIR Image from KOMPSAT-3A, it will be possible to improve the explanatory power of the model. By utilizing the relationship between such various land cover types considering vegetation vitality of green areas with that of land surface temperature within urban spaces for urban planning, it is expected to contribute in reducing the land surface temperature in urban spaces.

Estimation of Cerchar abrasivity index based on rock strength and petrological characteristics using linear regression and machine learning (선형회귀분석과 머신러닝을 이용한 암석의 강도 및 암석학적 특징 기반 세르샤 마모지수 추정)

  • Ju-Pyo Hong;Yun Seong Kang;Tae Young Ko
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.39-58
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    • 2024
  • Tunnel Boring Machines (TBM) use multiple disc cutters to excavate tunnels through rock. These cutters wear out due to continuous contact and friction with the rock, leading to decreased cutting efficiency and reduced excavation performance. The rock's abrasivity significantly affects cutter wear, with highly abrasive rocks causing more wear and reducing the cutter's lifespan. The Cerchar Abrasivity Index (CAI) is a key indicator for assessing rock abrasivity, essential for predicting disc cutter life and performance. This study aims to develop a new method for effectively estimating CAI using rock strength, petrological characteristics, linear regression, and machine learning. A database including CAI, uniaxial compressive strength, Brazilian tensile strength, and equivalent quartz content was created, with additional derived variables. Variables for multiple linear regression were selected considering statistical significance and multicollinearity, while machine learning model inputs were chosen based on variable importance. Among the machine learning prediction models, the Gradient Boosting model showed the highest predictive performance. Finally, the predictive performance of the multiple linear regression analysis and the Gradient Boosting model derived in this study were compared with the CAI prediction models of previous studies to validate the results of this research.

Using multiple sequence alignment to extract daily activity routines of the elderly living alone

  • Lee, Bogyeong;Lee, Hyun-Soo;Park, Moonseo;Ahn, Changbum Ryan;Choi, Nakjung;Kim, Toseung
    • Advances in Computational Design
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.73-90
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    • 2019
  • The growth in the number of single-member households is a critical issue worldwide, especially among the elderly. For those living alone, who may be unaware of their health status or routines that could improve their health, a continuous healthcare monitoring system could provide valuable feedback. Assessing the performance adequacy of activities of daily living (ADL) can serve as a measure of an individual's health status; previous research has focused on determining a person's daily activities and extracting the most frequently performed behavioral patterns using camera recordings or wearable sensing techniques. However, existing methods used to extract common patterns of an occupant's activities in the home fail to address the spatio-temporal dimensions of human activities simultaneously. Though multiple sequence alignment (MSA) offers some advantages - such as inherent containment of the spatio-temporal data in sequence format, and rapid identification of hidden patterns - MSA has rarely been used to extract in-home ADL routines. This research proposes a method to extract a household occupant's ADL routines from a cumulative spatio-temporal data log of occupancy collected using a non-intrusive method (i.e., a tomographic motion detection system). The findings from an occupant's 28-day spatio-temporal activity log demonstrate the capacity of the proposed approach to identify routine patterns of an occupant's daily activities and to reveal the order, duration, and frequency of routine activities. Routine ADL patterns identified from the proposed approach are expected to provide a basis for detecting/evaluating abrupt or gradual changes of an occupant's ADL patterns that result from a physical or mental disorder, and can offer valuable information for home automation applications by enabling the prediction of ADL patterns.