• 제목/요약/키워드: Contingency stage

검색결과 27건 처리시간 0.026초

Bayesian estimation for finite population proportions in multinomial data

  • Kwak, Sang-Gyu;Kim, Dal-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제23권3호
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    • pp.587-593
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    • 2012
  • We study Bayesian estimates for finite population proportions in multinomial problems. To do this, we consider a three-stage hierarchical Bayesian model. For prior, we use Dirichlet density to model each cell probability in each cluster. Our method does not require complicated computation such as Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to draw samples from each density of parameters. We draw samples using Gibbs sampler with grid method. We apply this algorithm to a couple of simulation data under three scenarios and we estimate the finite population proportions using two kinds of approaches We compare results with the point estimates of finite population proportions and their standard deviations. Finally, we check the consistency of computation using differen samples drawn from distinct iterates.

Relationship between maturation indices and morphology of the midpalatal suture obtained using cone-beam computed tomography images

  • Jang, Hong-Ik;Kim, Sang-Cheol;Chae, Jong-Moon;Kang, Kyung-Hwa;Cho, Jin-Woo;Chang, Na-Young;Lee, Keun-Young;Cho, Jin-Hyoung
    • 대한치과교정학회지
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    • 제46권6호
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    • pp.345-355
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    • 2016
  • Objective: The purpose of this study was to determine whether predicting maturation of the midpalatal suture is possible by classifying its morphology on cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) images and to investigate relationships with other developmental age indices. Methods: The morphology of the midpalatal suture was assessed by using CBCT images of 99 patients. Axial plane images of the midpalatal suture were classified into five stages according to the classification scheme. To make the assessment more accurate, the morphology and fusion of the midpalatal suture were additionally investigated on coronal cross-sectional planar images and volume-rendered images. Bone age was evaluated using the hand and wrist method (HWM) and cervical vertebrae method (CVM); dental age (Hellman's index), sex, and chronological age were also assessed. To evaluate relationships among variables, Spearman's rho rank test was performed along with crosstabs using contingency coefficients. Results: The HWM and CVM showed strong correlations with the maturation stage of the midpalatal suture, while other indices showed relatively weak correlations (p < 0.01). Through crosstabs, the HWM and CVM showed high association values with CBCT stage; the HWM demonstrated slightly higher values (p < 0.0001). Based on the HWM, the midpalatal suture was not fused until stage 6 in both sexes. Conclusions: Among developmental age indices, the HWM and CVM showed strong correlations and high associations, suggesting that they can be useful in assessing maturation of the midpalatal suture.

해양 공사 EPC 견적용 중량 추산 방법에 관한 기초 연구 (A Preliminary Study on a Method for the Weight Estimation and Calculation of Offshore EPC Projects)

  • 이수호;안현식;허윤;배재류;김기수;함승호;이성민;노명일
    • 대한조선학회논문집
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    • 제53권2호
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    • pp.154-161
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    • 2016
  • There are several existing studies for the weight estimation of offshore plants. However, most of them were applicable at the pre-FEED (Front End Engineering Design) stage. In this paper, a preliminary study on a method for the weight estimation and calculation of offshore EPC (Engineering Procurement Construction) projects is made for the use at the estimation stage after FEED. Based on literature surveys including ISO (International Organization for Standardization) 19901-5 about weight estimation, we proposes new weight factors and a weight curve. Weight factors defined in this study include MTO (Material Take-Off), estimated weight, FEED maturity factor, allowance factor, and contingency factor. The proposed method utilizes bottom-up approach for weight estimation and it can be used for the weight estimation and calculation of offshore EPC projects at the estimation stage.

KPX의 한국 전력 계통에서 EMS 계통해석기능 활용실태 소개 (KPX's EMS Network Analysis Operation Status in Korea Power System)

  • 강형구;한희천
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2005년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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    • pp.30-34
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    • 2005
  • Due to old Toshiba EMS's database size limit and hardware old aging, KPX(Korea Power Exchange) had introduced New EMS from AREVA(old ALSTOM) in July 2002. After then KPX had committed many man power and time to normalize EMS NA(Network Analysis) functions for using real power system. At initial stage, to normalize State Estimator which is the backbone of all other NA functions and DTS(Dispatcher Training Simulator}, KPX had corrected numerous topology errors, network model errors, non-scanned and wrongly scanned SCADA measured errors. After SE function study, running test and tuning, State Estimator could finally have been run properly and stably from June 2003. Based on SE running, KPX had normalized real time Contingency Analysis, and study mode Power Flow, STNET and DTS. From early 2004, dispatchers have been trained to use NA and DTS for the purpose of stable SE running, NA operation & results reading and urgent equipment outage reviewing. EMS NA have been greatly contributed to operate real time power system stably. Above NA normal operation by KPX own efforts under the no experience of NA running, KPX made a good precedent. This paper is intended to introduce EMS NA normalization process, operation status, and etc in Korea power system operation.

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Quantitative Assessment of Input and Integrated Information in GIS-based Multi-source Spatial Data Integration: A Case Study for Mineral Potential Mapping

  • Kwon, Byung-Doo;Chi, Kwang-Hoon;Lee, Ki-Won;Park, No-Wook
    • 한국지구과학회지
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    • 제25권1호
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    • pp.10-21
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    • 2004
  • Recently, spatial data integration for geoscientific application has been regarded as an important task of various geoscientific applications of GIS. Although much research has been reported in the literature, quantitative assessment of the spatial interrelationship between input data layers and an integrated layer has not been considered fully and is in the development stage. Regarding this matter, we propose here, methodologies that account for the spatial interrelationship and spatial patterns in the spatial integration task, namely a multi-buffer zone analysis and a statistical analysis based on a contingency table. The main part of our work, the multi-buffer zone analysis, was addressed and applied to reveal the spatial pattern around geological source primitives and statistical analysis was performed to extract information for the assessment of an integrated layer. Mineral potential mapping using multi-source geoscience data sets from Ogdong in Korea was applied to illustrate application of this methodology.

사회적 상황의 표상: 알레고리의 역할 (Figuring the Social Condition: The Role of Allegory)

  • 파트릭 플로레
    • 미술이론과 현장
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    • 제7호
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    • pp.89-123
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    • 2009
  • The Philippines was colonized by Spain for about centuries, from 1521 to 1898, and ruled by America for around four decades, from 1899 to 1946. After recovering from the Second World War, the government started to harness human labor as export itself. In the present time the overseas Filipinos keep the economy afloat with their steady transfer of money to relatives and dependents. Through the art works, the issue which Filipinos were exploited and exported by its government has been reflected as the various allegories. As Filipinos traditionally follow and keep Catholic belief, themes of Christ's sacrifice has allegorically been represented as salvation, struggle, suppression, and emancipation of people. Through the allegory, we can interpret both the intrinsic and superficial texts. Also we can identity certain modes of the visuality of allegory in selected works from Philippine art history that in their complex mediations materialize the people and dignity of their predicament and their prevailing. Philippine art can be divided as three different features: passion, vagrancy, and mass formation. The passion stage was depicted as deep structure of Christian thought and devotional feeling, harsh capitalist system. In the pictures of vagrancy, under the regime of Ferdinand Marcos, the themes of drift, deprivation, and homelessness are reckoned through the images of pictures. The stories represented with allegory have been played an important role to bring local issues up as national ones. Those stages take us to the processes of mass formation or the depiction of the people as a moment in the totality of force. The allegorical sign refers to another sign that precedes it, but with which it will never able to coincide reach back to a previous stage and in this constant attempt at return incorporates a structural distance from its origin. The true people's art is one that radically generates transformative technologies and techniques so that it irrevocably breaks the plane of "art". In the painting, the truth is represented by functioning as foundation of a rhetoric of the image. And at this axis, the passional, the vagrant, and the mass formation tend to come together because they render the form of contingency that must be suffered and hopefully surpassed, a Filipino subjectivity that must be stitched in time.

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Discriminatory ability of cervical vertebral maturation stages in predicting attainment of the legal age threshold of 14 years: A pilot study using lateral cephalograms

  • Banda, Thirupathi Reddy;Komuravelli, Anil Kumar;Balla, Sudheer B.;Korrai, Bala Raju;Alluri, Kavya;Kondapaneni, Jayasurya;Abhyankar, Sourab
    • Imaging Science in Dentistry
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    • 제50권3호
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    • pp.209-216
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: In India, the age of 14 years is the legal age threshold for child labour. Therefore, in suspected instances of child labour, age assessment plays a crucial role in determining whether a violation of the law on the employment of children has occurred. The aim of this retrospective cross-sectional study was to assess the discriminatory ability of stages of cervical vertebral maturation (CVM) in predicting the legal age threshold of 14 years. Materials and Methods: Routinely taken lateral cephalograms from 408 subjects aged 10 to 18 years were evaluated retrospectively using the CVM stages described by Baccetti et al. Descriptive statistics, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and likelihood ratios were calculated for stages 2, 3, and 4 of CVM. Results: Real age increased as the CVM stage gradually increased. The results of 2×2 contingency tables showed that CVM stage 4 produced an accuracy of 71% and 73%, a false positive rate of 7% and 18%, and a post-test probability of 59% and 68% for boys and girls, respectively. Conclusion: Based on these findings, it can be concluded that the stages of CVM are of limited use for predicting the attainment of the legal age threshold of 14 years. Future studies should investigate whether combinations of skeletal and dental methods could achieve better accuracy and post-test probability.

뉴이미지론의 위상과 두 패러다임 : J. Baudrillard와 J. Lacan을 중심으로 (Two Paradigms of the New Image Theory : J. Baudrillard and J. Lacan)

  • 최광진
    • 조형예술학연구
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    • 제2권
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    • pp.193-221
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    • 2000
  • The postmodern culture since the later 20C breaks downa tradition a relation between the reality and languages or sign images expressing it. It develops in the way to review the meaning on the object's imitation or the representation to have been followed since Plato and represent the new state and concept of expressed things. Also, The visual art leads an change of paradigm by images giving up the visual resemblance or the function of representation and endowing them with the new sense. This essay has a purpose to study an important discussion about this change centered on Baudrillard and Lacan. A sociologist Baudrillard promotes the concept of 'simulation' through detecting the reality and the social and historical state of the image. Studying on the course of this change, he calls the step that the image escapes from the stage to reflect the reality and become the pure imitation by itself simulation. The image in the stage of simulation is called 'hyperreality' because it doesn't have any an indicator or a substitute and happens by models without the original or the reality. So he asserts that art is not to contain some absoluteness or transcendency as the past, but to be as the spectacle with characteristics of meaningless, emptiness, contingency. Lacan dismantles the concept of the absolute Cogito to have become the center of the western ideology, and creates the concept of 'Other'. He concludes also the reality exists but can't be captured, and it's impossible for the thinking subject can reach it. The concept of new image which can be thought as the Symbolic in Lacan is 'Signifier without Signified' since it isn't possible to be the transcendent Signifier fixing the meaning finally in it. His 'Gaze' theory is which to be emitted in other's area determines the subject. Equally Baudrillard and Lacan sets up the new state of the image through the end of representation system As for Baudrillard, art intends to the worthlessness and is nothing but imagination. But in Lacan a picture represents the subject being in process by the dialectic of desire.

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미국 오하이오주의 실천적 문제 중심 모형을 적용한“일과 가족생활 교육과정”에 대한 가정과 교사의 관심도 (Concerns of Home Economics Teachers on Ohio's Work and Family Life Curriculum)

  • 채정현
    • 대한가정학회지
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    • 제34권4호
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    • pp.327-343
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    • 1996
  • The objective of this study were 1) to determine the stages of concern of HE teachers about the practical problem-based curriculum approach, as illustrated by the Ohio's Work and Family Life Curriculum (W&FLC); 2) to determine the relationships between home economics (HE) teacher's stages of concern about W&FLC and personal and professional characteristics of HE teachers; and 3) to determine aspects of interest about the practical problem-based curriculum approach, such as the Ohio W&FLC. Respondents in this study were 225 HE teachers. The data were collected during the in-service teacher training sessions after presentation about W&FLC. Concerns Based Adoption Model (CBAM) was modified to provide a conceptual framework for this study. Frequencies, SD, mean, mode, range were used to determine the stages of concern of HE teachers. To determine the relationships between stages of concerns and personal and professional characteristics of HE teachers, coefficient of Chi-Square contingency tables was used. Content analysis was used to determine aspects of interest about the practical problem-bsed curriculum approach, such as W&FLC. The median of the stages of HE teachers' concerns about W&FLC was Stage 1, Information Stage. About 60% of HE teachers were interested in learning more details about W&FLC. Chi-square revealed no statistically significant relationships between stages of concerns about W&FLC and characteristics of HE teachers. Content analysis was used to determine aspects of interest about W&FLC of HE teachers. Nine categories were found: content, teaching strategies, implementation of the curriculum, philosophical framework, how to adopt W&FLC, resource materials, students' outcomes, in-service teacher training, and HE teacher organization. The majority of HE teachers were interested in relationships with family and others, resource management, family relationships, personal development, communication skill, family life, creating a self-identity, life planning, roles of family members, homemaking management, child care, and parenting.

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SAF를 위한 자동계획기법 구현 사례 (Case of Implementation of Automatic Planning for SAF)

  • 김정윤;최대회;이상진;정성훈
    • 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
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    • 제23권4호
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    • pp.171-180
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    • 2014
  • 본 연구는 모의개체로 하여금 동적행위연결을 통한 목적지향 행위계획을 수행토록 하는 기법의 구현사례로서 재계획기법을 소개한다. 기존의 행위처리기법, 특히 Semi-Automated Forces (SAF)에서는 모의 초기에 주어진 정해진 계획을 단순히 수행하는 수준에서 크게 벗어나지 않는다. 따라서 인간의 판단 같은 예측불허 상황이 발생하는 (Human in the loop) 모의에서 기존 기법은 상황대처에 미흡하다. 또한 그러한 기법은 돌발상황 대응을 위한 광범위한 경우의 수를 고려하다보면 행위조합 폭증 문제를 겪을 수 있으며, 그러한 조합이 상황에 부합하지 않을 수 있다. 재계획기법은 역전파(back-propagation)를 활용, 목표달성을 위해 필요한 행위들을 검색, 연계하는 자동계획기법 구현사례이다. 이 기법은 행위에 태그(pre/post-conditions)를 부여, 동적으로 행위들을 연결한다. 본 논문은 기법의 실효성 입증을 위해 국방분야의 연구과제에 적용된 성과를 소개한다.