• Title/Summary/Keyword: Construction Cost Prediction Model

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Image based Concrete Compressive Strength Prediction Model using Deep Convolution Neural Network (심층 컨볼루션 신경망을 활용한 영상 기반 콘크리트 압축강도 예측 모델)

  • Jang, Youjin;Ahn, Yong Han;Yoo, Jane;Kim, Ha Young
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.43-51
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    • 2018
  • As the inventory of aged apartments is expected to increase explosively, the importance of maintenance to improve the durability of concrete facilities is increasing. Concrete compressive strength is a representative index of durability of concrete facilities, and is an important item in the precision safety diagnosis for facility maintenance. However, existing methods for measuring the concrete compressive strength and determining the maintenance of concrete facilities have limitations such as facility safety problem, high cost problem, and low reliability problem. In this study, we proposed a model that can predict the concrete compressive strength through images by using deep convolution neural network technique. Learning, validation and testing were conducted by applying the concrete compressive strength dataset constructed through the concrete specimen which is produced in the laboratory environment. As a result, it was found that the concrete compressive strength could be learned by using the images, and the validity of the proposed model was confirmed.

A Study on the Optimum Design Flowrate for Tunnel-Type Small Hydro-Power Plants (터널식 소수력 발전소의 최적 설계유량에 관한 연구)

  • 이철형;박완순
    • Water for future
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.63-71
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    • 1991
  • This study represents the methodology for feasibility analysis of small hydro power plants. Cumulative density function of Weibull distribution and Thi-essen method were adopted to beside flow duration curve at candidate sites. The performance prediction model and construction cost estimation model for tunnel-type small hydro power plants were developed. Eight candidate sites existing on Han river selected and surveyed for actual sites reconnaissance. The performance characteristics and economical feasibility for these sites were analyzed by using developed models. As a result, it was found that the optimum design flowrates with the lowest unit generation cost for tunnel-type small hydro power plants were the flowrate concerning with between 20 % and 30 % of time ratio on the flow duration curve. Additionally, primary design specifications such as design flowrate, effective head, capacity, annual average load factor, annual electricity production were estimated and discussed for surveyed sites.

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A Study on the Development of the Cash-Flow Forecasting Model in Apartment Business factoring tn Housing Payment Collection Pattern and Payment Condition for Construction Expences (분양대금 납부패턴과 공사대금 지급방식 변화를 고려한 공동주택사업의 현금흐름 예측모델 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim Soon-Young;Kim Kyoon-Tai;Han Choong-Hee
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • autumn
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    • pp.353-358
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    • 2001
  • Since the financial crisis broke out, liquidity has become the critical issue in housing construction industry. In order to secure liquidity, it is prerequisite to precisely forecast cash flow. However, construction companies have failed to come up with a systematic process to manage and forecast cash flow. Until now, companies have solely relied on the prediction of profits and losses, which is carried out as they review business feasibility. To obtain more accurate cash flow forecast model, practical pattern of payments should be taken into account. In this theory, basic model that analyzes practical housing payment collection pattern resulting from prepayments and arrears is described. This model is to complement conventional cash flow forecast scheme in the phase of business feasibility review. Analysis result on final losses in cash that occur as a result of prepayment and arrears is considered in this model. Additionally, in the estimation of construction cost in the phase of business feasibility review, real construction prices instead of official prices are applied to enhance accuracy of cash outflow forecast. The proportion of payment made by a bill and changes in payment date caused by rescheduling of a bill are also factored in to estimate cash outflow. This model would contribute to achieving accurate cash flow forecast that better reflect real situation and to enhancing efficiency in capital management by giving a clear picture with regard to the demand and supply timing of capital.

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Development of Traffic Accident Prediction Models Considering Variations of the Future Volume in Urban Areas (신설 도시부 도로의 장래 교통량 변화를 반영한 교통사고 예측모형 개발)

  • Lee, Soo-Beom;Hong, Da-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.3 s.81
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    • pp.125-136
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    • 2005
  • The current traffic accident reduction procedure in economic feasibility study does not consider the characteristics of road and V/C ratio. For solving this problem, this paper suggests methods to be able to evaluate safety of each road in construction and improvement through developing accident Prediction model in reflecting V/C ratio Per road types and traffic characters. In this paper as primary process, model is made by tke object of urban roads. Most of all, factor effecting on accident relying on road types is selected. At this point, selecting criteria chooses data obtained from road planning procedure, traffic volume, existence or non-existence of median barrier, and the number of crossing point, of connecting road. and of traffic signals. As a result of analyzing between each factor and accident. all appear to have relatives at a significant level of statistics. In this research, models are classified as 4-categorized classes according to roads and V/C ratio and each of models draws accident predicting model through Poisson regression along with verifying real situation data. The results of verifying models come out relatively satisfactory estimation against real traffic data. In this paper, traffic accident prediction is possible caused by road's physical characters by developing accident predicting model per road types resulted in V/C ratio and this result is inferred to be used on predicting accident cost when road construction and improvement are performed. Because data using this paper are limited in only province of Jeollabuk-Do, this paper has a limitation of revealing standards of all regions (nation).

Heating Performance Prediction of Low-depth Modular Ground Heat Exchanger based on Artificial Neural Network Model (인공신경망 모델을 활용한 저심도 모듈러 지중열교환기의 난방성능 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Jinhwan;Cho, Jeong-Heum;Bae, Sangmu;Chae, Hobyung;Nam, Yujin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Geothermal and Hydrothermal Energy
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2022
  • Ground source heat pump (GSHP) system is highly efficient and environment-friendly and supplies heating, cooling and hot water to buildings. For an optimal design of the GSHP system, the ground thermal properties should be determined to estimate the heat exchange rate between ground and borehole heat exchangers (BHE) and the system performance during long-term operating periods. However, the process increases the initial cost and construction period, which causes the system to be hindered in distribution. On the other hand, much research has been applied to the artificial neural network (ANN) to solve problems based on data efficiently and stably. This research proposes the predictive performance model utilizing ANN considering local characteristics and weather data for the predictive performance model. The ANN model predicts the entering water temperature (EWT) from the GHEs to the heat pump for the modular GHEs, which were developed to reduce the cost and spatial disadvantages of the vertical-type GHEs. As a result, the temperature error between the data and predicted results was 3.52%. The proposed approach was validated to predict the system performance and EWT of the GSHP system.

Prediction of Fatigue Life Using Dynamic Simulation and Finite Element Anlaysis for Construction Equipment (중장비의 동적시뮬레이션과 유한요소법을 이용한 피로수명에측)

  • Kwon, Soon-Ki;Park, Hyung-Jin
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.1392-1400
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    • 1996
  • The need of companies shorten the design-to-manufacturing process for new products with improved quality in cost effective manner places increasing demends on engineers to simulate the performance characteristics of a design before it is built of a prototype is developed. For theses demands CAE(Computer-Aided Engineering) offers engineers not only giving confidence of their design but also eliminating potential errors due totesting prototypes in small numbers. This paper present the method to predict the fatigue life using dynamics simulation and FEA(Finite Element Analysis) for construciton equipment in the computer before building prototype. The dynamicsimulatio is to get the load-time history corresponding to the maneuvering and driving of the construction equipment. The FEA is to build a model of the structure and then analyse to define the local stress response to applied loadings using linear static analysis.

Development of a Numerical Model for the Rapidly Increasing Heat Release Rate Period During Fires (Logistic function Curve, Inversed Logistic Function Curve) (화재시 열방출 급상승 구간의 수치모형 개발에 관한 연구 (로지스틱 함수 및 역함수 곡선))

  • Kim, Jong-Hee;Song, Jun-Ho;Kim, Gun-Woo;Kweon, Oh-Sang;Yoon, Myong-O
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.20-27
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    • 2019
  • In this study, a new function with higher accuracy for fire heat release rate prediction was developed. The 'αt2' curve, which is the major exponential function currently used for fire engineering calculations, must be improved to minimize the prediction gap that causes fire system engineering inefficiency and lower cost-effectiveness. The newly developed prediction function was designed to cover the initial fire stage that features rapid growth based on logistic function theory, which has a more logical background and graphical similarity compared to conventional exponential function methods for 'αt2'. The new function developed in this study showed apparently higher prediction accuracy over wider range of fire growth durations. With the progress of fire growth pattern studies, the results presented herein will contribute towards more effective fire protection engineering.

Study of the longitudinal reinforcement in reinforced concrete-filled steel tube short column subjected to axial loading

  • Alifujiang Xiamuxi;Caijian Liu;Alipujiang Jierula
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.47 no.6
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    • pp.709-728
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    • 2023
  • Experimental and analytical studies were conducted to clarify the influencing mechanisms of the longitudinal reinforcement on performance of axially loaded Reinforced Concrete-Filled Steel Tube (R-CFST) short columns. The longitudinal reinforcement ratio was set as parameter, and 10 R-CFST specimens with five different ratios and three Concrete-Filled Steel Tube (CFST) specimens for comparison were prepared and tested. Based on the test results, the failure modes, load transfer responses, peak load, stiffness, yield to strength ratio, ductility, fracture toughness, composite efficiency and stress state of steel tube were theoretically analyzed. To further examine, analytical investigations were then performed, material model for concrete core was proposed and verified against the test, and thereafter 36 model specimens with four different wall-thickness of steel tube, coupling with nine reinforcement ratios, were simulated. Finally, considering the experimental and analytical results, the prediction equations for ultimate load bearing capacity of R-CFSTs were modified from the equations of CFSTs given in codes, and a new equation which embeds the effect of reinforcement was proposed, and equations were validated against experimental data. The results indicate that longitudinal reinforcement significantly impacts the behavior of R-CFST as steel tube does; the proposed analytical model is effective and reasonable; proper ratios of longitudinal reinforcement enable the R-CFSTs obtain better balance between the performance and the construction cost, and the range for the proper ratios is recommended between 1.0% and 3.0%, regardless of wall-thickness of steel tube; the proposed equation is recommended for more accurate and stable prediction of the strength of R-CFSTs.

LCCA-embedded Monte Carlo Approach for Modeling Pay Adjustment at the State DOTs (도로공사에서 생애주기비용을 사용한 지급조정모델 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Choi Jae-ho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • autumn
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    • pp.72-77
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    • 2002
  • The development of a Pay Adjustment (PA) procedure for implementing Performance-related Specifications (PRS) is known to be a difficult task faced by most State Highway Agencies (SHAs) due to the difficulty in such areas as selecting pay factor items, modeling the relationship between stochastic variability of pay factor items and pavement performance, and determining an overall lot pay adjustment. This led to the need for an effective way of developing a scientific pay adjustment procedure by incorporating Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) embedded Monte Carlo approach. In this work, we propose a prototype system to determine a PA specifically using the data in the pavement management information systems at Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT) as an exemplary to other SHAs. It is believed that the PRS methodology demonstrated in this study can be used in real projects by incorporating the more accurate and reliable performance prediction models and LCC model.

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Study on the applicability of regression models and machine learning models for predicting concrete compressive strength

  • Sangwoo Kim;Jinsup Kim;Jaeho Shin;Youngsoon Kim
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.91 no.6
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    • pp.583-589
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    • 2024
  • Accurately predicting the strength of concrete is vital for ensuring the safety and durability of structures, thereby contributing to time and cost savings throughout the design and construction phases. The compressive strength of concrete is determined by various material factors, including the type of cement, composition ratios of concrete mixtures, curing time, and environmental conditions. While mix design establishes the proportions of each material for concrete, predicting strength before experimental measurement remains a challenging task. In this study, Abrams's law was chosen as a representative investigative approach to estimating concrete compressive strength. Abrams asserted that concrete compressive strength depends solely on the water-cement ratio and proposed a logarithmic linear relationship. However, Abrams's law is only applicable to concrete using cement as the sole binding material and may not be suitable for modern concrete mixtures. Therefore, this research aims to predict concrete compressive strength by applying various conventional regression analyses and machine learning methods. Six models were selected based on performance experiment data collected from various literature sources on different concrete mixtures. The models were assessed using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R2) to identify the optimal model.