• 제목/요약/키워드: Confidence bound

검색결과 34건 처리시간 0.023초

크리깅 기반 차원감소법을 이용한 베이지안 신뢰도 해석 (Bayesian Reliability Analysis Using Kriging Dimension Reduction Method (KDRM))

  • 안다운;최주호;원준호
    • 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국전산구조공학회 2008년도 정기 학술대회
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    • pp.602-607
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    • 2008
  • A technique for reliability-based design optimization(RBDO) is developed based on the Bayesian approach, which can deal with the epistemic uncertainty arising due to the limited number of data. Until recently, the conventional RBDO was implemented mostly by assuming the uncertainty as aleatory which means the statistical properties are completely known. In practice, however, this is not the case due to the insufficient data for estimating the statistical information, which makes the existing RBDO methods less useful. In this study, a Bayesian reliability is introduced to take account of the epistemic uncertainty, which is defined as the lower confidence bound of the probability distribution of the original reliability. In this case, the Bayesian reliability requires double loop of the conventional reliability analyses, which can be computationally expensive. Kriging based dimension reduction method(KDRM), which is a new efficient tool for the reliability analysis, is employed to this end. The proposed method is illustrated using a couple of numerical examples.

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고강도철근콘크리트 보의 휨강성에 관한 실험적 연구 (An Experimental Study on the Flexural Rigidity of Reinforced High Strength Concrete Beams)

  • 고만영;김상우;김용부
    • 콘크리트학회논문집
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    • 제12권2호
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    • pp.71-78
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    • 2000
  • This paper presents a study on the flexural rigidity of reinforced high strength concrete beams. Thirty six beams with different compressive strength of concrete, tensile reinforcement ratio, compressive reinforcement ratio, and pattern of loadings(1 point loading and 2 points loading) were tested to evaluate the effective moment of inertia. According to the experimental results, the eqation(1) proposed by ACI code for the effective moment of inertia overestimated that of simply supported reinforced high strength concrete beams. Thus, in this paper, an empirical equation(3) is proposed as a lower bound of 90% confidence limit to estimate the effective moment of inertia of simply supported reinforced high strength concrete beams.

시설배치문제의 의사결정지원 시스템 - 그래프이론의 접근

  • 이호준
    • 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국경영과학회 1989년도 추계학술발표회 발표논문초록집; 이화여자대학교, 서울; 23 Sep. 1989
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    • pp.77-85
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    • 1989
  • The purpose of this research entails the study of the multicriteria graph-theoretic Facility Layout Problem(FLP), the development of a Decision Support System(DSS), and a sensitivity analysis for graph Theoretic heuristics. The graph theoretic FLP Decision Support System gives decision makers or planners more information as a guide in producing their final layouts. This information is provided by a variety of final result scores, so called upper bound values, based on different options and different criteria. The increased information provided will give decision makers more confidence in design a block plan. One case is presented to demonstrate the applicability of the system to real-world problem. Finally, applicabilities of the DSS to other format layouts, such as GT layout and JIT's U-line, are briefly mentioned.

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Exploiting a statistical threshold for efficiently identifying correlated pairs

  • 김명주;박희창
    • 한국데이터정보과학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국데이터정보과학회 2006년도 추계 학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.197-203
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    • 2006
  • Association rule mining searches for interesting relationships among Items in a given database. Association rules are frequently used by retail stores to assist in marketing, advertising, floor placement, and inventory control. There are three primary quality measures for association rule support and confidence and lift. If there is many item in the association rule, much time is required. Xiong(2004) studies new method which is to compute the support of upper. They used support of upper to the $\theta$. But $\theta$ is subjective. In this paper, we present statistical objective criterion for efficiently identifying correlated pairs.

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3D 모델 기반의 3D Pose Estimation의 성능 향상 알고리즘 (Performance Enhancement Algorithm of 3D Pose Estimation based on 3D Model)

  • 이솔;박정탁;박병서;서영호
    • 한국방송∙미디어공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국방송∙미디어공학회 2021년도 추계학술대회
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    • pp.187-188
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    • 2021
  • 본 논문에서는 Openpose의 신뢰도를 이용해 3D pose estimation의 정확도를 높이는 방법을 제안한다. 모델의 앞뒤양옆 네 방향에서 pose estimation의 진행하기 위해 3D 모델에 AABB(Axis Aligned Bound Box)를 생성한 다음, box의 네 옆면으로 모델을 투영시킨다. 각 면에 투사된 2D image에 대해 Openpose 2D pose estimation의 진행한다. 네 면에서 생성한 2D 스켈레톤들의 평균을 통해 3D 상의 교차점을 획득한다. Openpose에서 제공하는 신뢰도(confidence)를 이용하여 잘못 나온 2D 관절을 제외하는 것으로 더 정확한 pose estimation의 수행하였다. 실험적인 방법을 통해 신뢰도 0.45 이상의 값을 가지는 joint 만을 사용해 3D 교차점을 구함으로써 3D pose estimation의 정확도를 높였다.

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프로빗 모델 기반 핀풀러의 작동 신뢰도 추정 (Functional Reliability Estimation of Pin Pullers Based on a Probit Model)

  • 문병민;이진욱;김남호;최창선;김재일;배석주
    • 한국군사과학기술학회지
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    • 제20권2호
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    • pp.225-230
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    • 2017
  • To generate mechanical movements in one-shot devices such as missiles and space launch vehicles, pyrotechnic mechanical device(PMD) such as pin pullers using pyrotechnic charge has been widely used. Reliability prediction of pin pullers is crucial to successfully execute target missions for the one-shot devices. Because the pin pullers require destructive tests to evaluate their reliability, one would need about 3,000 samples of success to guarantee a reliability of 99.9 % with a confidence level of 95 %. This paper suggests the application of a probit model using the charge amount as a functional parameter for estimation of functional reliability of pin puller. To guarantee target reliability, we propose estimation methods of the lower bound of functional reliability by applying the probit model. Given lower bound of functional reliability, we quantitatively show that the optimum amount of charge increases as the number of samples decreases. Along with a variety of simulations the validity of our new model via real test results is confirmed.

가전제품용 경첩의 신뢰성 추정 (Reliability Estimation of Door Hinge for Rome Appliances)

  • 김진우;신재철;김명수;문지섭
    • 대한기계학회논문집A
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    • 제29권5호
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    • pp.689-697
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    • 2005
  • This paper presents the reliability estimation of door hinge for home appliances, which consists of bushing and shaft. The predominant failure mechanism of bushing made of polyoxymethylene(POM) is brittle fracture due to decrease of strength caused by voids existing, and that of shaft made of acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene(ABS) is creep due to plastic deformation caused by excessive temperature and lowering of glass transition temperature by absorbed moisture. Since the brittle fracture of bushing is overstress failure mechanism, the load-strength interference model is used to estimate the failure rate of it along with failure analysis. By the way, the creep of shaft is wearout failure mechanism, and an accelerated life test is then planned and implemented to estimate its lifetime. Through the technical review about failure mechanism, temperature and humidity are selected as accelerating variables. Assuming Weibull lifetime distribution and Eyring model, the life-stress relationship and acceleration factor, $B_{10}$ life and its lower bound with $90\%$ confidence at worst case use condition are estimated by analyzing the accelerated life test data.

방사성 토양폐기물 시료의 통계적 대표성에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Statistical Representativeness of Samples taken from Radioactive Soil)

  • 조한석;김태국;이강무;안섬진;손종식
    • 한국방사성폐기물학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국방사성폐기물학회 2005년도 춘계 학술대회
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    • pp.151-157
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    • 2005
  • 한국원자력연구소에서는 토양폐기물의 규제해제를 통한 처리를 위하여 토양의 핵종 및 방사능분석에 대한 절차를 개발하고 있다. 토양의 규제해제를 위한 기반작업으로 대표성 있는 시료를 추출하기 위하여 균질화, 평균화를 거쳐 임의추출(random sample)하는 시료추출의 방법론을 결정하였다. 통계학적인 관점에서의 대표성은 시료추출의 방법론 뿐 만 아니라 시료의 크기를 얼마로 할 것인가에 대한 설계가 선행 되어야 한다. 본 연구에서는 토양폐기물에서 시료를 채취하는 절차에 따라 예비시료를 추출한 후 핵종 및 방사능평가 작업을 수행한 결과를 사용하여 신뢰구간과 오차 한계에 따른 시료의 개수를 산정하였다.

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가전제품용 경첩의 신뢰성 추정 (Reliability Estimation of Door Hinge for Home Appliances)

  • 문지섭;김진우;이재국;이희진;신재철;김명수
    • 한국신뢰성학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국신뢰성학회 2004년도 정기학술대회
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    • pp.303-311
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    • 2004
  • This paper presents the reliability estimation of door hinge for home appliances, which consists of bushing and shaft. The predominant failure mechanism of bushing made of polyoxymethylene(POM) is brittle fracture due to decrease of strength caused by voids existing, and that of shaft made of acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene(ABS) is creep due to plastic deformation caused by excessive temperature and lowering of glass transition temperature by absorbed moisture. Since the brittle fracture of bushing is overstress failure mechanism, the load-strength interference model is used to estimate the failure rate of it along with failure analysis. By the way, the creep of shaft is wearout failure mechanism, and an accelerated life test is then planned and implemented to estimate its lifetime. Through the technical review about failure mechanism, temperature and humidity are selected as accelerating variables. Assuming Weibull lifetime distribution and Eyring model, the life-stress relationship and acceleration factor, B$_{10}$ life and its lower bound with 90% confidence at worst case use condition are estimated by analyzing the accelerated life test data.a.

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Developing an interface strength technique using the laser shock method

  • James A. Smith;Bradley C. Benefiel;Clark L. Scott
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제55권2호
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    • pp.432-442
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    • 2023
  • Characterizing the behavior of nuclear reactor plate fuels is vital to the progression of advanced fuel systems. The states of pre- and post-irradiation plates need to be determined effectively and efficiently prior to and following irradiation. Due to the hostile post-irradiation environment, characterization must be completed remotely. Laser-based characterization techniques enable the ability to make robust measurements inside a hot-cell environment. The Laser Shock (LS) technique generates high energy shockwaves that propagate through the plate and mechanically characterizes cladding-cladding interfaces. During an irradiation campaign, two Idaho National Laboratory (INL) fabricated MP-1 plates had a fuel breach in the cladding-cladding interface and trace amounts of fission products were released. The objective of this report is to characterize the cladding-cladding interface strengths in three plates fabricated using different fabrication processes. The goal is to assess the risk in irradiating future developmental and production fuel plates. Prior LS testing has shown weaker and more variability in bond strengths within INL MP-1 reference plates than in commercially produced vendor plates. Three fuel plates fabricated with different fabrication processes will be used to bound the bond strength threshold for plate irradiation insertion and assess the confidence of this threshold value.