• 제목/요약/키워드: Confidence : Flow

검색결과 210건 처리시간 0.021초

건기 실측간격, 강우인자에 따른 탱크모형 매개변수 추정 (Parameter Estimation of Tank Model by Data Interval and Rainfall Factors for Dry Season)

  • 박재일;백천우;전환돈;김중훈
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제22권5호
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    • pp.856-864
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    • 2006
  • For estimating the minimum discharge to maintain a river, low flow analysis is required and long term runoff records are needed for the analysis. However, runoff data should be estimated to run a hydrologic model for ungaged river basin. For the reason, parameter estimation is crucial to simulate rainfall-runoff events for those basins using Tank model. In this study, only runoff data recorded for dry season are used for parameter estimation, which is different to other methods based on runoff data recorded for wet and dry seasons. The Harmony Search algorithm is used to determine the optimum parameters for Tank model. The coefficient of determination ($R^2$) is served as the objective function in the Harmony Search. In cases that recorded data are insufficient, the recording interval is changed and Empirical CDF is adopted to analyze the estimated parameters. The suggested method is applied to Yongdam dam, Soyanggang dam, Chungju dam and Seomjingang dam basins. As results, the higher $R^2s$ are obtained when the shorter recording interval, the better recorded data quality, and the more rainfall events recorded along with certain rainfall amount is. Moreover, when the total rainfall is higher than the certain amount, $R^2$ is high. Considering the facts found from this study for the low flow analysis, it is possible to estimate the parameters for Tank model properly with the desired confidence level.

Predictors of Acute Postoperative Urinary Retention after Transvaginal Uterosacral Suspension Surgery

  • Son, Eun-Joo;Joo, Eunwook;Hwang, Woo Yeon;Kang, Mi Hyun;Choi, Hyun Jin;Yoo, Eun-Hee
    • Journal of Menopausal Medicine
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    • 제24권3호
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    • pp.163-168
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    • 2018
  • Objectives: To investigate the rate of postoperative urinary retention (POUR) and identify the risk factors for this complication in women who underwent transvaginal uterosacral suspension surgery. Methods: A retrospective chart review was conducted for 75 women who underwent transvaginal uterosacral suspension surgery with vaginal hysterectomy, repair of cystocele, and levator myorrhaphy with/without transobturator anti-incontinence surgery. POUR was defined as a need for continuous intermittent catheterization on the third day subsequent to removal of the urethral indwelling catheter. Results: Acute POUR was reported in 18 women (24.0%). Thirty-six of the 75 patients (48.0%) had undergone anti-incontinence surgery. Crude analysis revealed significant association between the following variables and the risk of POUR: hypertension, the lower average flow rate in the pressure-flow study (PFS), greater post-void residual (PVR) urine volume in PFS, and PVR >30% of the total bladder capacity (TBC) in PFS. In the logistic regression analysis, PVR >30% of the TBC in PFS was identified as the only significant predictor of POUR (odds ratio, 15.4; 95% confidence interval, 2.5-90.9; P = 0.003). Conclusions: The PVR >30% of the TBC in PFS was identified as the only predictive factor of acute POUR in women who underwent transvaginal uterosacral suspension surgery.

Oscillometry-Defined Small Airway Dysfunction in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

  • Amit K. Rath;Dibakar Sahu;Sajal De
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • 제87권2호
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    • pp.165-175
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    • 2024
  • Background: The prevalence of small airway dysfunction (SAD) in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) across different ethnicities is poorly understood. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of SAD in stable COPD patients. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study of 196 consecutive stable COPD patients. We measured pre- and post-bronchodilator (BD) lung function and respiratory impedance. The severity of COPD and lung function abnormalities was graded in accordance with the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) guidelines. SAD was defined as either difference in whole-breath resistance at 5 and 19 Hz > upper limit of normal or respiratory system reactance at 5 Hz < lower limit of normal. Results: The cohort consisted of 95.9% men, with an average age of 66.3 years. The mean forced expiratory volume 1 second (FEV1) % predicted was 56.4%. The median COPD assessment test (CAT) scores were 14. The prevalence of post-BD SAD across the GOLD grades 1 to 4 was 14.3%, 51.1%, 91%, and 100%, respectively. The post-BD SAD and expiratory flow limitation at tidal breath (EFLT) were present in 62.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 56.1 to 69.9) and 28.1% (95% CI, 21.9 to 34.2), respectively. COPD patients with SAD had higher CAT scores (15.5 vs. 12.8, p<0.01); poor lung function (FEV1% predicted 46.6% vs. 72.8%, p<0.01); lower diffusion capacity for CO (4.8 mmol/min/kPa vs. 5.6 mmol/min/kPa, p<0.01); hyperinflation (ratio of residual volume to total lung capacity % predicted: 159.7% vs. 129%, p<0.01), and shorter 6-minute walk distance (367.5 m vs. 390 m, p=0.02). Conclusion: SAD is present across all severities of COPD. The prevalence of SAD increases with disease severity. SAD is associated with poor lung function and higher symptom burden. Severe SAD is indicated by the presence of EFLT.

Are Accuracy Studies for Periprosthetic Joint Infection Diagnosis Inherently Flawed? And What to Do with Schrödinger's Hips? A Prospective Analysis of the Alpha Defensin Lateral-Flow Test in Chronic Painful Hip Arthroplasties

  • Jesse W.P. Kuiper;Steven J. Verberne;Pim W. van Egmond;Karin Slot;Olivier P.P. Temmerman;Constantijn J. Vos
    • Hip & pelvis
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    • 제34권4호
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    • pp.236-244
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: The most recent diagnostic criteria for periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) include the use of the alpha-defensin (AD) lateral-flow (LF) test, but hip and knee arthroplasties were usually combined in previous studies. This prospective study was designed to examine the accuracy of the AD-LF test for diagnosis of PJI in chronic painful total hip arthroplasties (THA). Materials and Methods: Patients with chronic painful hip arthroplasties were prospectively enrolled between March 2018 and May 2020. Exclusion criteria included acute PJI or an insufficient amount of synovial fluid. The modified Musculoskeletal Infection Society (MSIS) criteria were primarily used for PJI diagnosis. Fifty-seven patients were included in the analysis group. Revision surgery was not performed in 38 patients, for different reasons (clinical group); these patients remain "Schrödinger's hips": in such cases PJI cannot be excluded nor confirmed until you "open the box". Results: The result of the AD-LF test was positive in nine patients and negative in 48 patients. Six patients were diagnosed with PJI. AD-LF sensitivity (MSIS criteria) was 83% (95% confidence interval [CI] 36-100%) and specificity was 92% (95% CI 81-98%). The positive and negative predictive value were 56% and 98%, respectively. Conclusion: The AD test is useful in addition to the existing arsenal of diagnostic tools, and can be helpful in the decision-making process. Not all patients with chronical painful THA will undergo revision surgery. Consequently, in order to determine the reliable diagnostic accuracy of this test, future PJI diagnostic studies should include a second arm of "Schrödinger's hips".

몬테카를로 방법과 ISO-GUM 방법의 불확도 평가 결과 비교 (Comparison of ISO-GUM and Monte Carlo Method for Evaluation of Measurement Uncertainty)

  • 하영철;허재영;이승준;이강진
    • 대한기계학회논문집B
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    • 제38권7호
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    • pp.647-656
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    • 2014
  • 본 연구에서는 ISO GUM(불확도 표현 지침서)의 불확도 평가 방법을 보완하기 위해, 몬테카를로 방법(Monte Carlo Method, MCM)을 적용한 불확도 해석 프로그램을 개발하고, MCM과 GUM의 평가 결과를 비교하였다. 그 결과 다음과 같은 결과를 도출하였다. 첫째, 측정량의 확률 분포가 정규 분포가 아닌 때에도 MCM 방법은 정확한 포함 구간을 제공한다. 둘째, 정규 분포가 아닌 다른 분포들 몇몇 개가 합성되는 경우 그 확률 분포가 정규로 보이더라도 실제로는 정규가 아닌 경우가 있으며, 이의 판단은 합성 분산의 확률 분포로 할 수 있다. 셋째, 자유도가 낮은 A형 불확도가 불확도 평가에 포함된 경우 GUM은 포함 구간을 저평가하는 것을 알 수 있었고, 이러한 저평가 문제는 A형 표준 불확도에 t-분포의 표준 편차를 곱해주면 사라지는 것을 알 수 있었다. 이 경우 합성 분산의 유효 자유도는 확장 불확도 계산에 불필요하고, 신뢰의 수준 95 %의 포함 인자는 1.96이 적정한 것을 알 수 있었다.

봄철 미세분진이 북경시 아동 폐기능에 미치는 급성영향에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Acute Effects of Eine Particles on Pulmonary Function of Schoolchildren in Beijing, China)

  • 김대선;유승도;차정훈;안승철;차준석
    • 한국환경보건학회지
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    • 제30권2호
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    • pp.140-148
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    • 2004
  • To evaluate the acute effects of fine particles on pulmonary function, a longitudinal study was conducted. This study was carried out for the schoolchildren (3rd and 6th grades) living in Beijing, China. Each child was provided with a mini-Wright peak flow meter and a preformatted health symptom diary for 40 days, and was trained on their proper use. Participants were instructed to perform the peak flow test three times in standing position, three times a day (9 am, 12 pm, and 8 pm), and to record all the readings along with the symptoms (cold, cough, and asthmatic symptoms) experienced on that day. Daily measurement of fine particles (PM$_{10}$ and PM$_{2.5}$) was obtained in the comer of the playground of the participating elementary school for the same period of this longitudinal study. The relationship between daily peak expiratory flow rate (PEFR) and fine particle levels was analyzed using a mixed linear regression models including gender, height, the presence of respiratory symptoms, and daily average temperature and relative humidity as extraneous variables. The total number of students participating in this longitudinal study was 87. The range of daily measured PEFR was 253-501$\ell$/min. In general, the PEFR measured in the morning was lower than the PEFR measured in the evening (or afternoon) on the same day. The daily mean concentrations of PM$_{10}$ and PM$_{2.5}$ over the study period were 180.2$\mu\textrm{g}$/㎥ and 103.2$\mu\textrm{g}$/㎥, respectively. The IQR (inter-quartile range) of PM$_{10}$ and PM$_{2.5}$ were 91.8$\mu\textrm{g}$/㎥ and 58.0$\mu\textrm{g}$/㎥. During the study period, the national ambient air quality standard of 150$\mu\textrm{g}$/㎥ (for PM$_{10}$) was exceeded in 23 days (57.5%). The analysis showed that an increase of 1$\mu\textrm{g}$/㎥ of PM$_{10}$ corresponded to 0.59$\mu\textrm{g}$/㎥ increment of PM$_{2.5}$. Daily mean PEFR was regressed with the 24-hour average PM$_{10}$ (or PM$_{2.5}$) levels, weather information such as air temperature and relative humidity, and individual characteristics including gender, height, and respiratory symptoms. The analysis showed that the increase of fine particle concentrations was negatively associated with the variability in PEFR. The IQR increments of PM$_{10}$ or PM$_{2.5}$ (at 1-day time lag) were also shown to be related with 1.54 $\ell$/min (95% Confidence intervals: 0.94-2.14) and 1.56$\ell$/min (95% CI: 0.95-2.16) decline in PEFR.R.ine in PEFR.ine in PEFR.

버어리종 담배중 암모니아성 질소에 대한 불확도 측정 (Uncertainty Evaluation of Ammonia Determination in Burley Tobacco)

  • 이정민;이경구;한상빈
    • 한국연초학회지
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    • 제27권1호
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    • pp.107-114
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    • 2005
  • The uncertainty of measurement in quantitative analysis of ammonia by continuous-flow analysis method was evaluated following internationally accepted guidelines. The sources of uncertainty associated with the analysis of ammonia were the weighing of sample, the preparation of extracting solution, the addition of extracting solution into the sample, the reproducibility of analysis and the determination of water content in tobacco, etc. In calculating uncertainties, Type A of uncertainty was evaluated by the statistical analysis of a series of observation, and Type B by the information based on supplier's catalogue and/or certificated of calibration. It was shown that the main source of uncertainty was caused by the volume measurement of 1 mL and 2 mL, the purity of ammonia reference material in the preparation of standard solution, the reproducibility of analysis and the determination of water content of tobacco. The uncertainty in the addition of extraction solution, the sample weighing, the volume measurement of 50 mL and 100 mL, and the calibration curve of standard solution contributed relatively little to the overall uncertainty. The expanded uncertainty of ammonia determination in burley tobacco at $95\%$ level of confidence was $0.00997\%$.

구획화재의 출입구를 통한 광학적 연기밀도 측정의 불확실성 해석 (Uncertainty Analysis of the Optical Smoke Density Measurement through the Doorway in a Compartment Fire)

  • 김성찬
    • 한국화재소방학회논문지
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    • 제27권2호
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    • pp.75-79
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    • 2013
  • 본 연구는 구획화재의 출입구를 통한 연기밀도를 정량적으로 측정하고 측정기법의 신뢰성을 평가하기 위해 불확실성 해석을 수행한다. 메탄 화재 강도에 따른 축소모형 구획공간의 출입구 상층부를 통해 유출되는 연기 유동에 대해 광소멸 측정을 수행하고 Bouguer's의 법칙을 적용하여 연기밀도를 산정하였다. 광투과율, 경로길이, 질량비광소멸상수에 대하여 연기밀도의 측정 불확실도를 평가하였으며 계산된 연기밀도 측정의 확장불확실도는 20% 정도이며 신뢰수준은 95% 이다. 준정상상태의 화재 발열량에 대하여 출입구에서의 평균 연기밀도를 산정하였으며 구획공간내부의 총괄당량비 증가에 따라 출입구의 연기농도가 선형적으로 증가하는 경향을 보였다.

패션 셀렉트샵 인테리어 디스플레이의 VMD 구성요소에 관한 연구 (A study on the VMD elements of fashion select shop interior displays)

  • 최지훈;김미현
    • 복식문화연구
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    • 제25권2호
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    • pp.206-223
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    • 2017
  • This study examines the role of visual merchandising (VMD) in creating effective interior displays for fashion "select shops"(shops that carry a wide selection of brands) amid the recent changes in consumption trends, with consumer needs becoming increasingly individualized and diversified. Fashion select shop interior displays can be categorized as self-service, showcase, counter, and environmental display spaces. Regarding the VMD elements that contribute to effective interior displays, we reached the following conclusions. First, in self-service displays, in order to heighten sales efficacy, display elements should be presented in such a way as to enable customers to select products with ease by themselves. Second, the mere presence of showcase displays was found to be insufficient; if, however, select shops use showcase displays to arrange products according to the flow of customer traffic, enabling the creation of a gentrified atmosphere for products, this may contribute to a differentiated image of brands, heightening perceived product value. Third, in counter displays, having a harmonious arrangement of display and presentation elements promotes sales by inspiring customer confidence. Fourth, regarding environmental displays, it is important for stores to have attractive interior designs and decorations in order to reproduce settings in which products are actually used, as this can inspire interest in products and promote customers' purchasing intention.

Development of wall-thinning evaluation procedure for nuclear power plant piping - Part 2: Local wall-thinning estimation method

  • Yun, Hun;Moon, Seung-Jae;Oh, Young-Jin
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제52권9호
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    • pp.2119-2129
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    • 2020
  • Flow-accelerated corrosion (FAC), liquid droplet impingement erosion (LDIE), cavitation and flashing can cause continuous wall-thinning in nuclear secondary pipes. In order to prevent pipe rupture events resulting from the wall-thinning, most NPPs (nuclear power plants) implement their management programs, which include periodic thickness inspection using UT (ultrasonic test). Meanwhile, it is well known in field experiences that the thickness measurement errors (or deviations) are often comparable with the amount of thickness reduction. Because of these errors, it is difficult to estimate wall-thinning exactly whether the significant thinning has occurred in the inspected components or not. In the previous study, the authors presented an approximate estimation procedure as the first step for thickness measurement deviations at each inspected component and the statistical & quantitative characteristics of the measurement deviations using plant experience data. In this study, statistical significance was quantified for the current methods used for wall-thinning determination. Also, the authors proposed new estimation procedures for determining local wall-thinning to overcome the weakness of the current methods, in which the proposed procedure is based on analysis of variance (ANOVA) method using subgrouping of measured thinning values at all measurement grids. The new procedures were also quantified for their statistical significance. As the results, it is confirmed that the new methods have better estimation confidence than the methods having used until now.