• Title/Summary/Keyword: Conditional variable

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How Does Economic News Affect S&P 500 Index Futures? (거시경제변수가 S&P 500 선물지수에 어떤 영향을 미치는가?)

  • So, Yung-Il;Ko, Jong-Moon;Choi, Won-Kun
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.341-357
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    • 1996
  • Some empirical studies have shown that asset prices respond to announcements of economic news, however, others also have found little evidence. This study assesses how market participants of the S&P 500 Index Futures reacted to the U.S. economic news announcements. For this purpose, using a GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) model, we use several U.S. news variables, its each surprise component and interest rates. We find that some economic news variables affected significantly on the S&P 500 Index Futures. In other words, we find that weekend variable, lagged volatility, and surprise component of trade deficit increased level of volatility. However, interest rate, M1, unemployment announcements caused the variance of the S&P 500 Index Futures to reduce, and each of the surprise component of M1 and trade deficit increased it. The result suggests that resolution of uncertainty, through economic news announcement, while, in some cases, causes market participants to reduce their forecast of volatility, a large difference between the market's forecast and the realization of the series causes the volatility to increase.

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The Effect of Authentic Leadership and Psychological Contract Breach on Organizational Cynicism: Focusing on the Moderated Mediation of Followers' Identification with the Leader

  • Kim, Yesung;Shin, Je-Goo
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.1-29
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    • 2017
  • This study sets out to verify the moderated mediation of followers' identification with the leader on the indirect effect of authentic leadership on organizational cynicism via psychological contract breach. A total of 279 responses from employees at companies with more than 500 employees and of diverse industries were used for analysis. Our findings showed that authentic leadership (X) had a negative indirect effect on organizational cynicism (Y) via psychological contract breach (M), and that this indirect effect was negatively moderated by identification with the leader, thereby identifying its role as a moderating mediator. Further verification revealed that the indirect effect ($X{\rightarrow}M{\rightarrow}Y$) was conditional upon the value of the moderating variable, where identification with the leader had a significant effect in the 25%, 50%, 75%, 90% levels, but not in the 10% level. The findings of this research empirically verified that greater exertion of authentic leadership lowers psychological contract breach among organization members and, consequently, organizational cynicism. In particular, this effect was stronger when the organization member identified him/herself more strongly with the leader. Our findings extend the body of knowledge on the relationship between authentic leadership and organizational cynicism and expands the possibilities for future research.

Fault Diagnosis in Semiconductor Etch Equipment Using Bayesian Networks

  • Nawaz, Javeria Muhammad;Arshad, Muhammad Zeeshan;Hong, Sang Jeen
    • JSTS:Journal of Semiconductor Technology and Science
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.252-261
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    • 2014
  • A Bayesian network (BN) based fault diagnosis framework for semiconductor etching equipment is presented. Suggested framework contains data preprocessing, data synchronization, time series modeling, and BN inference, and the established BNs show the cause and effect relationship in the equipment module level. Statistically significant state variable identification (SVID) data of etch equipment are preselected using principal component analysis (PCA) and derivative dynamic time warping (DDTW) is employed for data synchronization. Elman's recurrent neural networks (ERNNs) for individual SVID parameters are constructed, and the predicted errors of ERNNs are then used for assigning prior conditional probability in BN inference of the fault diagnosis. For the demonstration of the proposed methodology, 300 mm etch equipment model is reconstructed in subsystem levels, and several fault diagnosis scenarios are considered. BNs for the equipment fault diagnosis consists of three layers of nodes, such as root cause (RC), module (M), and data parameter (DP), and the constructed BN illustrates how the observed fault is related with possible root causes. Four out of five different types of fault scenarios are successfully diagnosed with the proposed inference methodology.

Self-Organization Fuzzy Control of Dual-Arm Robot (Dual-Arm로봇의 자기구성 퍼지제어)

  • 김홍래;김종수;한성현
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Machine Tool Engineers Conference
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    • 2003.10a
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    • pp.201-206
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    • 2003
  • In this paper, it is presented a new technique to the design and real-time implementation of fuzzy control system based-on digital signal processors in order to improve the precision and robustness for system of industrial robot. Fuzzy control has emerged as one of the most active and fruitful areas for research in the applications of fuzzy set theory, especially in the real of industrial processes. In this thesis, a self-organizing fuzzy controller for the industrial robot manipulator with a actuator located at the base is studied. A fuzzy logic composed of linguistic conditional statements is employed by defining the relations of input-output variable of the controller, In the synthesis of a FLC, one of the most difficult problems is the determination of linguistic control rules from the human operators. To overcome this difficult, SOFC is proposed fir a hierarchical control structure consisting of basic level and high level that modify control rules. The proposed SOFC scheme is simple in structure, fast in computation and suitable for implementation of real-time control. Performance of the SOFC is illustrated by simulation and experimental results for robot with eight joints.

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On determining a non-periodic preventive maintenance schedule using the failure rate threshold for a repairable system

  • Lee, Juhyun;Park, Jihyun;Ahn, Suneung
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.151-159
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    • 2018
  • Maintenance activities are regarded as a key part of the repairable deteriorating system because they maintain the equipment in good condition. In practice, many maintenance policies are used in engineering fields to reduce unexpected failures and slow down the deterioration of the system. However, in traditional maintenance policies, maintenance activities have often been assumed to be performed at the same time interval, which may result in higher operational costs and more system failures. Thus, this study presents two non-periodic preventive maintenance (PM) policies for repairable deteriorating systems, employing the failure rate of the system as a conditional variable. In the proposed PM models, the failure rate of the system was restored via the failure rate reduction factors after imperfect PM activities. Operational costs were also considered, which increased along with the operating time of the system and the frequency of PM activities to reflect the deterioration process of the system. A numerical example was provided to illustrate the proposed PM policy. The results showed that PM activities performed at a low failure rate threshold slowed down the degradation of the system and thus extended the system lifetime. Moreover, when the operational cost was considered in the proposed maintenance scheme, the system replacement was more cost-effective than frequent PM activities in the severely degraded system.

Robust Control of Dual Arm Robot with Eight Joint Based-on Self-Organization Fuzzy Control (자기구성 퍼지제어에 의한 8축 로봇의 강인제어)

  • 신행봉;김종수;김홍래;한성현
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Machine Tool Engineers Conference
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    • 2004.10a
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    • pp.187-192
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    • 2004
  • In this paper, it is presented a new technique to the design and real-time implementation of fuzzy control system based-on digital signal processors in order to improve the precision and robustness for system of industrial robot. Fuzzy control has emerged as one of the most active and fruitful areas for research in the applications of fuzzy set theory, especially in the real of industrial processes. In this thesis, a self-organizing fuzzy controller for the industrial robot manipulator with a actuator located at the base is studied. A fuzzy logic composed of linguistic conditional statements is employed by defining the relations of input-output variable of the controller, In the synthesis of a FLC, one of the most difficult problems is the determination of linguistic control rules from the human operators. To overcome this difficult, SOFC is proposed for a hierarchical control structure consisting of basic level and high level that modify control rules. The proposed SOFC scheme is simple in structure, fast in computation, and suitable for implementation of real-time control. Performance of the SOFC is illustrated by simulation and experimental results for robot with eight joints.

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Position and Velocity Control of AM1 Robot Using Self-Organization Fuzzy Control Technology (자기구성 퍼지 제어기법에 의한 AM1 로봇의 위치 및 속도 제어)

  • Kim, Jong-Su;Chung, Yun-Gyo;Han, Seong-Hyeon;Lee, Jin;Chang, Yeong-Hui
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Machine Tool Engineers Conference
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    • 2000.10a
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    • pp.102-107
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, it is presented a new technique to the design and real-time implementation of fuzzy control system based-on digital signal processors in order to improve the precision and robustness for system of industrial robot. Fuzzy control has emerged as one of the most active and fruitful areas for research in the applications of fuzzy set theory, especially in the real of industrial processes. In this thesis, a self-organizing fuzzy controller for the industrial robot manipulator with a actuator located at the base is studied. A fuzzy logic composed of linguistic conditional statements is employed by defining the relations of input-output variable of the controller, In tile synthesis of a FLC, one of the most difficult problems is the determination of linguistic control rules from the human operators. To overcome this difficult, SOFC is proposed for a hierarchical control structure consisting of basic level and high level that modify control rules.

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Combining Feature Variables for Improving the Accuracy of $Na\ddot{i}ve$ Bayes Classifiers (나이브베이즈분류기의 정확도 향상을 위한 자질변수통합)

  • Heo Min-Oh;Kim Byoung-Hee;Hwang Kyu-Baek;Zhang Byoung-Tak
    • Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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    • 2005.07b
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    • pp.727-729
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    • 2005
  • 나이브베이즈분류기($na\ddot{i}ve$ Bayes classifier)는 학습, 적용 및 계산자원 이용의 측면에서 매우 효율적인 모델이다. 또한, 그 분류 성능 역시 다른 기법에 비해 크게 떨어지지 않음이 다양한 실험을 통해 보여져 왔다. 특히, 데이터를 생성한 실제 확률분포를 나이브베이즈분류기가 정확하게 표현할 수 있는 경우에는 최대의 효과를 볼 수 있다. 하지만, 실제 확률분포에 존재하는 조건부독립성(conditional independence)이 나이브베이즈분류기의 구조와 일치하지 않는 경우에는 성능이 하락할 수 있다. 보다 구체적으로, 각 자질변수(feature variable)들 사이에 확률적 의존관계(probabilistic dependency)가 존재하는 경우 성능 하락은 심화된다. 본 논문에서는 이러한 나이브베이즈분류기의 약점을 효율적으로 해결할 수 있는 자질변수의 통합기법을 제시한다. 자질변수의 통합은 각 변수들 사이의 관계를 명시적으로 표현해 주는 방법이며, 특히 상호정보량(mutual information)에 기반한 통합 변수의 선정이 성능 향상에 크게 기여함을 실험을 통해 보인다.

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The Comparison of Imputation Methods in Space Time Series Data with Missing Values (공간시계열모형의 결측치 추정방법 비교)

  • Lee, Sung-Duck;Kim, Duck-Ki
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.263-273
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    • 2010
  • Missing values in time series can be treated as unknown parameters and estimated by maximum likelihood or as random variables and predicted by the conditional expectation of the unknown values given the data. The purpose of this study is to impute missing values which are regarded as the maximum likelihood estimator and random variable in incomplete data and to compare with two methods using ARMA and STAR model. For illustration, the Mumps data reported from the national capital region monthly over the years 2001~2009 are used, and estimate precision of missing values and forecast precision of future data are compared with two methods.

Volatility clustering in data breach counts

  • Shim, Hyunoo;Kim, Changki;Choi, Yang Ho
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.487-500
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    • 2020
  • Insurers face increasing demands for cyber liability; entailed in part by a variety of new forms of risk of data breaches. As data breach occurrences develop, our understanding of the volatility in data breach counts has also become important as well as its expected occurrences. Volatility clustering, the tendency of large changes in a random variable to cluster together in time, are frequently observed in many financial asset prices, asset returns, and it is questioned whether the volatility of data breach occurrences are also clustered in time. We now present volatility analysis based on INGARCH models, i.e., integer-valued generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity time series model for frequency counts due to data breaches. Using the INGARCH(1, 1) model with data breach samples, we show evidence of temporal volatility clustering for data breaches. In addition, we present that the firms' volatilities are correlated between some they belong to and that such a clustering effect remains even after excluding the effect of financial covariates such as the VIX and the stock return of S&P500 that have their own volatility clustering.