• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제9권10호
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• pp.1-13
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• 2022

This paper empirically explores the predicting ability of the newly proposed smooth transition (ST) time-varying combining forecast methods. The proposed method allows the "weight" of combining forecasts to change gradually over time through its unique feature of transition variables. Stock market returns from 7 countries were applied to Ad Hoc models, the well-known Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) family models, and the Smooth Transition Exponential Smoothing (STES) models. Of the individual models, GJRGARCH and STES-E&AE emerged as the best models and thereby were chosen for constructing the combined forecast models where a total of nine ST combining methods were developed. The robustness of the ST combining forecasts is also validated by the Diebold-Mariano (DM) test. The post-sample forecasting performance shows that ST combining forecast methods outperformed all the individual models and fixed weight combining models. This study contributes in two ways: 1) the ST combining methods statistically outperformed all the individual forecast methods and the existing traditional combining methods using simple averaging and Bates & Granger method. 2) trading volume as a transition variable in ST methods was superior to other individual models as well as the ST models with single sign or size of past shocks as transition variables.

• 천문학회보
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• 제44권1호
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• pp.54.2-54.2
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• 2019

Removing noise which occurs inevitably when taking image data has been a big concern. There is a way to raise signal-to-noise ratio and it is regarded as the only way, image stacking. Image stacking is averaging or just adding all pixel values of multiple pictures taken of a specific area. Its performance and reliability are unquestioned, but its weaknesses are also evident. Object with fast proper motion can be vanished, and most of all, it takes too long time. So if we can handle single shot image well and achieve similar performance, we can overcome those weaknesses. Recent developments in deep learning have enabled things that were not possible with former algorithm-based programming. One of the things is generating data with more information from data with less information. As a part of that, we reproduced stacked image from single shot image using a kind of deep learning, conditional generative adversarial network (cGAN). r-band camcol2 south data were used from SDSS Stripe 82 data. From all fields, image data which is stacked with only 22 individual images and, as a pair of stacked image, single pass data which were included in all stacked image were used. All used fields are cut in $128{\times}128$ pixel size, so total number of image is 17930. 14234 pairs of all images were used for training cGAN and 3696 pairs were used for verify the result. As a result, RMS error of pixel values between generated data from the best condition and target data were $7.67{\times}10^{-4}$ compared to original input data, $1.24{\times}10^{-3}$. We also applied to a few test galaxy images and generated images were similar to stacked images qualitatively compared to other de-noising methods. In addition, with photometry, The number count of stacked-cGAN matched sources is larger than that of single pass-stacked one, especially for fainter objects. Also, magnitude completeness became better in fainter objects. With this work, it is possible to observe reliably 1 magnitude fainter object.