• KIEE International Transactions on Power Engineering
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• 제4A권2호
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• pp.100-105
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• 2004

Installed capacity markets in the northeast of the United States ensure that adequate generation exists to satisfy regional loss of load probability (LOLP) criterion. LOLP studies are conducted to determine the amount of capacity that is needed, but they do not consider several factors that substantially affect the calculated distribution of available capacity. These studies do not account for the fact that generation availability increases during periods of high demand and therefore prices, common-cause failures that result in multiple generation units being unavailable at the same time, and the negative correlation between load and available capacity due to temperature and humidity. A categorization of incidents in an existing bulk power reliability database is proposed to analyze the existence and frequency of independent failures and those associated with resource dynamics. Findings are augmented with other empirical findings. Monte Carlo methods are proposed to model these resource dynamics. Using the IEEE Reliability Test System as a single-bus case study, the LOLP results change substantially when these factors are considered. Better data collection is necessary to support the more comprehensive modeling of resource adequacy that is proposed. In addition, a parallel processing method is used to offset the increase in computational times required to model these dynamics.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.62-68
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• 2000

Static electricity in electronics manufacturing plants causes the economic loss, yet it is one of the least understood and least recognized effects haunting the industry today. Today's challenge in semiconductor devices is to achieve greater functional density pattern and to miniaturize electronic systems of being more fragile by electrostatic discharges(ESD) phenomena. As the use of automatic handling equipment for static-sensitive semiconductor components is rapidly increased, most manufacturers need to be more alert to the problem of ESD. One of the most common causes of electrostatic damage is the direct transfer of electrostatic charge from the human body or a charged material to the static-sensitive devices. To evaluate the ESD hazards by charged human body and devices, in this paper, characteristics of electrostatic attenuation in domestic semiconductor devices is investigated and the voltage to cause electronic component failures is investigated by field-induced charged device model(FCDM) tester. The FCDM simulator provides a fast and inexpensive test that faithfully represents ESD hazards in plants. Also the results obtained in this paper can be used for the prevention of semiconductor failure from ESD hazards.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제54권8호
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• pp.2924-2932
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• 2022

Motivated by learning from experience and exploiting existing knowledge in civil nuclear operations, we have developed in-house generic Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) models for pressurized and boiling water reactors. The models are computationally light, handy, transparent, user-friendly, and easily adaptable to account for major plant-specific differences. They cover the common internal initiating events, frontline and support systems reliability and dependencies, human-factors, common-cause failures, and account for new factors typically overlooked in many PSAs. For quantification, the models use generic US reliability data, precursor analysis reports, the ETHZ Curated Nuclear Events Database, and experts' opinions. Moreover, uncertainties in the most influential basic events are addressed. The generated results show good agreement with assessments available in the literature with detailed PSAs. We envision the models as an unbiased framework to measure nuclear operational risk with the same "ruler", and hence support inter-plant risk comparisons that are usually not possible due to differences in plant-specific PSA assumptions and scopes. The models can be used for initial risk screening, order-of-magnitude precursor analysis, and other research/pedagogic applications especially when no plant-specific PSAs are available. Finally, we are using the generic models for large-scale precursor analysis that will generate big picture trends, lessons, and insights.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2012년도 학술발표회
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• pp.34-34
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• 2012

Heavy storms rainfall has caused many landslides and slope failures especially in the mountainous area of the world. Landslides and slope failures are common geologic hazards and posed serious threats and globally cause billions in monetary losses and thousands of casualies each year so that studies on slope stability and its failure mechanism under rainfall are being increasing attention of these days. Rainfall-induced slope failures are generally caused by the rise in ground water level, and increase in pore water pressures and seepage forces during periods of intense rainfall. The effective stress in the soil will be decreased due to the increased pore pressure, which thus reduces the soil shear strength, eventually resulting in slope failure. During the rainfall, a wetting front goes downward into the slope, resulting in a gradual increase of the water content and a decrease of the negative pore-water pressure. This negative pore-water pressure is referred to as matric suction when referenced to the pore air pressure that contributes to the stability of unsaturated soil slopes. Therefore, the importance is the study of saturated unsaturated soil behaviors in evaluation of slope stability under heavy rainfall condition. In an actual field, a series of failures may occur in a slope due to a rainfall event. So, this study attempts to develop a numerical model to investigate this failure mechanism. A two-dimensional seepage flow model coupled with a one-dimensional surface flow and erosion/deposition model is used for seepage analysis. It is necessary to identify either there is surface runoff produced or not in a soil slope during a rainfall event, while analyzing the seepage and stability of such slopes. Runoff produced by rainfall may result erosion/deposition process on the surface of the slope. The depth of runoff has vital role in the seepage process within the soil domain so that surface flow and erosion/deposition model computes the surface water head of the runoff produced by the rainfall, and erosion/deposition on the surface of the model slope. Pore water pressure and moisture content data obtained by the seepage flow model are then used to analyze the stability of the slope. Spencer method of slope stability analysis is incorporated into dynamic programming to locate the critical slip surface of a general slope.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제17권5호
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• pp.325-331
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• 2016

본 연구에서는 홍수 시 부유물의 충돌하중을 고려하여 교량의 홍수 취약도 곡선을 도출하였다. 자연재해에 의해 불가피하게 발생하는 사회기반시설물의 손상 또는 기능 손실은 심각한 인명피해 뿐만 아니라 국가적으로 사회적, 경제적 손실을 불러올 수 있다. 따라서 국가주요시설물을 재난으로부터 효과적으로 유지관리하기 위해 취약도 곡선은 중요한 도구로 사용되고 있다. 특히 한국은 산지 지형이 많이 형성되어 있고 하절기에 강수량의 2/3이상이 집중되어, 홍수 피해 가능성이 매우 높다. 홍수 시 교량 파괴의 주원인으로는 부유물의 충돌과 하상세굴이 있는데, 부유물의 충돌은 여러 가지 불확실성으로 인하여 상대적으로 연구가 부족한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 FERUM-ABAQUS 기반의 취약도 해석 시스템을 도입하여, 홍수시 부유물의 충돌에 대한 교량의 취약성을 평가하였다. 교량의 취약도 해석을 효과적으로 수행하기 위하여 한계상태함수, 손상도 지수, 확률변수, 유한요소모델, 취약도 해석 소프트웨어 시스템을 주로 고려하였으며, 가속도 및 변위 응답해석을 통하여 모델 상태를 확인하였다. 다음으로는 홍수 시 부유물 충돌에 발생 가능한 다양한 파라미터를 기반으로 교량의 취약도 곡선을 성공적으로 도출하였다.

• 신재생에너지
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• 제7권4호
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• pp.37-41
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• 2011

This paper presents a Combined solar-wave Power Generation (CPG) concept that the CPG unit is maintained as buoyant at the level of sea water and it is also supported by a submerged tunnel, with the aim of supplying emergency electric power during the station blackout events of nuclear power plants. The CPG concept has been motivated from the 2011 Fukushima-Daiichi Accidents due to the loss of both offsite AC power and emergency diesel power caused by natural hazards such as earthquake and tsunami. The CPG is conceptualized by applying different types and different sites for emergency power generation, in order to reduce common cause failures of emergency power suppliers due to natural hazards. Thus, the CPG can provide a new mean for supplying emergency electric power during station blackout events of nuclear power plants. For this application, the CPG requirements are described with a typical configuration at the ocean side of a submerged tunnel.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제11권6호
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• pp.1729-1734
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• 2016

The surface inspection of a steel billet is a common practice in the steel manufacturing process prior to hot rolling to produce steel wire for tire cord. This billet surface inspection is an important process because flaws on the surface may cause major failures during the product manufacturing phase. This paper presents a computer simulation based on a finite element method for a magnetic flaw detector with a function of the current intensity, the number of coil turns, and the billet proceeding speed during the production phase based on the typical condition of conventional apparatus. Based on the simulation result, the magnitude of the electromagnetic field on the surface diminished with distance from the electromagnet. In addition, the increased current intensity and the increased number of coil turns actually induced a stronger electromagnetic field on the billet surface. On the other hand, the proceeding speed of a billet in its production line had no significant effects. The result in this study may assist to reduce trial and error and to minimize the opportunity costs during the optimization process by applying the findings of this study into the operation condition in the steel billet production line.

• 항공우주시스템공학회지
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• 제6권3호
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• pp.7-12
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• 2012

The contents of aircraft system safety assessment vary depending on factors such as the complexity of the system, how critical the system is to flight safety, what volume of experience is available on the type of system and the novelty and complexity of the technologies being used. If the system safety assessment is to substantiate that the developed products are 'safe enough' to be taken into use, then the system safety assessment should be planned and managed to provide the necessary assurance that all relevant hazards and failure conditions have been identified and that all significant combinations of hazards and failures which could cause those conditions have been considered. The assessment must assist the designer and management in making decisions. It must make clear what the critical features of each system are and upon which special manufacturing techniques, inspection, testing, crew drills and maintenance practice they are critically dependent. This paper has prepared to study on promoting the efficiency of aircraft system safety assessment and to present how to compile system safety assessment strategy.

• Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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• 제40권2호
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• pp.131-137
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• 2016

In reliability analysis, it is quite common for the failure of any individual or item to be attributable to more than one cause. Moreover, observed data are often censored. Recently, progressive hybrid censoring schemes have become quite popular in life-testing problems and reliability analysis. However, a limitation of the progressive hybrid censoring scheme is that it cannot be applied when few failures occur before time T. Therefore, generalized progressive hybrid censoring schemes have been introduced. In this article, we derive the likelihood inference of the unknown parameters under the assumptions that the lifetime distributions of different causes are independent and exponentially distributed. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimators of the unknown parameters in exact forms. Asymptotic confidence intervals are also proposed. Bayes estimates and credible intervals of the unknown parameters are obtained under the assumption of gamma priors on the unknown parameters. Different methods are compared using Monte Carlo simulations. One real data set is analyzed for illustrative purposes.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• 제6권4호
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• pp.775-787
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• 2014

Availabilities of subsea Blowout Preventers (BOP) in the Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf (GoM OCS) is investigated using a Markov method. An updated ${\beta}$ factor model by SINTEF is used for common-cause failures in multiple redundant systems. Coefficient values of failure rates for the Markov model are derived using the ${\beta}$ factor model of the PDS (reliability of computer-based safety systems, Norwegian acronym) method. The blind shear ram preventer system of the subsea BOP components considers a demand rate to reflect reality more. Markov models considering the demand rate for one or two components are introduced. Two data sets are compared at the GoM OCS. The results show that three or four pipe ram preventers give similar availabilities, but redundant blind shear ram preventers or annular preventers enhance the availability of the subsea BOP. Also control systems (PODs) and connectors are contributable components to improve the availability of the subsea BOPs based on sensitivity analysis.