• 제목/요약/키워드: Climatological study

검색결과 161건 처리시간 0.035초

미계측 유역의 유황곡선 산정을 위한 지역회귀모형의 개발 (Development of Regional Regression Model for Estimating Flow Duration Curves in Ungauged Basins)

  • 이태희;이민호;이재응
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제36권3호
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    • pp.427-437
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    • 2016
  • 본 연구에서는 지형 및 기상학적 인자만으로 미계측 유역의 저유량부 유황곡선을 추정할 수 있는 지역회귀모형을 개발하고자 하였다. 이를 위해서 16개 유역의 계측 자료로부터 저유량 영역(지속일수 185일에서 365일)에 대한 유황곡선을 작성하고, 이를 토대로 로그형태의 이변수 회귀모형을 구축하였다. 이 회귀모형을 미계측 유역에 적용할 수 있도록 유역면적, 유역경사, 수계밀도, 연평균강수량, 연평균유출량, 유출곡선지수 등의 유역특성인자를 이용하여 모형의 매개변수를 지역화 하였다. 개발한 지역회귀모형으로 평균갈수량, 평균저수량, 평균평수량을 추정하여 관측값과 비교한 결과, 유역면적, 유출곡선지수, 연평균강수량 조합으로 구성된 지역회귀모형이 가장 우수한 것으로 분석되었다.

기후변화에 따른 유역의 물수지 변화 (Water Balance Change of Watershed by Climate Change)

  • 양해근
    • 대한지리학회지
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    • 제42권3호
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    • pp.405-420
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    • 2007
  • 본 연구에서는 기후변화에 따른 수문요소의 변동을 파악하기 위해 섬진강댐과 소양강댐 유역의 물순환 과정에 미치는 영향을 분석 평가하였다. 그 결과를 정리하자면 다음과 같다. 먼저 지난 30년간 기온과 강수량은 점차 증가하는 경향이 뚜렷하게 나타나고 있으나 증발산량은 지역에 따라 상이하게 나타나고 있으며 연평균 기온상승과 연증발산량의 증가가 정의 관계에 있다고 볼 수 없었다. Penman-FAO24법에 기초한 기후학적 물수지방법과 실측값은 서로 유의한 것으로 밝혀져 국내 물수지 연구에 사용가능한 것으로 사료된다. 한편 연강수량 증대에 따라 연유출량의 증가는 인정되나 연유출률에 대한 변동은 실측값과 계산값 간의 변동이 상이하게 나타나고 있어 기후변화의 영향이 유역의 유출특성에 크게 영향을 미치고 있다고 단정하기 어렵다. 기후변화에 의한 수자원관리와 재난관리에 큰 어려움이 예상되고 있다는 것은 이미 널리 알려진 사실이다. 이에 대한 적절한 대응방안을 강구하기 위해서는 유역의 기후학적 조건과 수문학적 변동성에 대한 깊은 이해가 필요하며 보다 조밀한 수문관측망의 구축과 신뢰도 높은 자료의 축적이 전제되어야 할 것이다.

Quantification of future climate uncertainty over South Korea using eather generator and GCM

  • Tanveer, Muhammad Ejaz;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2018년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.154-154
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    • 2018
  • To interpret the climate projections for the future as well as present, recognition of the consequences of the climate internal variability and quantification its uncertainty play a vital role. The Korean Peninsula belongs to the Far East Asian Monsoon region and its rainfall characteristics are very complex from time and space perspective. Its internal variability is expected to be large, but this variability has not been completely investigated to date especially using models of high temporal resolutions. Due to coarse spatial and temporal resolutions of General Circulation Models (GCM) projections, several studies adopted dynamic and statistical downscaling approaches to infer meterological forcing from climate change projections at local spatial scales and fine temporal resolutions. In this study, stochastic downscaling methodology was adopted to downscale daily GCM resolutions to hourly time scale using an hourly weather generator, the Advanced WEather GENerator (AWE-GEN). After extracting factors of change from the GCM realizations, these were applied to the climatic statistics inferred from historical observations to re-evaluate parameters of the weather generator. The re-parameterized generator yields hourly time series which can be considered to be representative of future climate conditions. Further, 30 ensemble members of hourly precipitation were generated for each selected station to quantify uncertainty. Spatial map was generated to visualize as separated zones formed through K-means cluster algorithm which region is more inconsistent as compared to the climatological norm or in which region the probability of occurrence of the extremes event is high. The results showed that the stations located near the coastal regions are more uncertain as compared to inland regions. Such information will be ultimately helpful for planning future adaptation and mitigation measures against extreme events.

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최근 동계작물의 파종기간 동안 기후변화 특징 (Characteristics of Climate Change in Sowing Period of Winter Crops)

  • 심교문;김용석;정명표;최인태
    • 한국기후변화학회지
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    • 제6권3호
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    • pp.203-208
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    • 2015
  • This study was conducted to provide the agricultural climatological basic data for the reset of sowing period of the winter crop on the double cropping system with rice. During the past 30 years from 1981 to 2010, mean air temperature has risen by $0.45^{\circ}C$ per 10 years (with statistical significance), while precipitation has decreased by 6.74 mm per 10 years and the numbers of days for precipitation has reduced by 0.23 days per 10 years (with no statistical significance) in the sowing period ($1^{st}$ Oct. to $5^{th}$ Nov.) of winter crop. It was analyzed that double cropping system of rice and winter crops need to be reset in the way of delaying the sowing time of winter crops, because rising trend of temperature was clear while variability of precipitation was great and the trend was not clear in the sowing period of winter crops. We have also analyzed the meteorological features of the sowing period of winter crops in 2014, and found that mean air temperature in 2014 was higher than that in normal years (similar to recent temperature change feature) while precipitation in 2014 was much more frequent than that in normal years (unlike recent precipitation features). Such tendency in 2014 made the sowing of winter crops difficult because mechanical sowing could not be worked in flooded paddy fields. Heavy rain in October 2014 was also analyzed as a rare phenomenon.

대기의 강이 한반도 지역별 강수에 미치는 영향 (Influence of Atmospheric Rivers on Regional Precipitation in South Korea)

  • 권예은;박찬일;백승윤;손석우;김진원;차은정
    • 대기
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    • 제32권2호
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    • pp.135-148
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    • 2022
  • This study investigates the influence of atmospheric river (AR) on precipitation over South Korea with a focus on regional characteristics. The 42-year-long catalog of ARs, which is obtained by applying the automatic AR detection algorithm to ERA5 reanalysis data and the insitu precipitation data recorded at 56 weather stations across the country are used to quantify their relationship. Approximately 51% of the climatological annual precipitation is associated with AR. The AR-related precipitation is most pronounced in summer by approximately 58%, while only limited fraction of precipitation (26%) is AR-related in winter. The heavy precipitation (> 30 mm day-1) is more prone to AR activity (59%) than weak precipitation (5~30 mm day-1; 33%) in all seasons. By grouping weather stations into the four sub-regions based on orography, it is found that the contribution of AR precipitation to the total is largest in the southern coast (57%) and smallest in the eastern coast (36%). Similar regional variations in AR precipitation fractions also occur in weak precipitation events. The regional contrast between the northern and southern stations is related to the seasonal variation of AR-frequency. In addition, the regional contrast between the western and eastern stations is partly modulated by the orographic forcing. The fractional contribution of AR to heavy precipitation exceeds 50% in all seasons, but this is true only in summer along the eastern coast. This result indicates that ARs play a critical role in heavy precipitation in South Korea, thus routine monitoring of ARs is needed for improving operational hydrometeorological forecasting.

상부 대류권-하부 성층권 오존이 성층권 준 2년주기 진동과 매든-줄리안 진동 상관성에 미치는 영향: GloSea5 이용 사례 (Influence of UTLS Ozone on the QBO-MJO Connection: A Case Study Using the GloSea5 Model)

  • 오지영;손석우;백승윤
    • 대기
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    • 제32권3호
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    • pp.223-233
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    • 2022
  • Recent studies have shown that Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is modulated by Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) during the boreal winter; MJO becomes more active and predictable during the easterly phase of QBO (EQBO) than the westerly phase (WQBO). Despite growing evidences, climate models fail to capture the QBO-MJO connection. One of the possible reasons is a weak static stability change in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) by neglecting QBO-induced ozone change in the model. Here, we investigate the possible impact of the ozone-radiative feedback in the tropical UTLS on the QBO-MJO connection by integrating the Global Seasonal Forecasting System 5 (GloSea5) model. A set of experiments is conducted by prescribing either the climatological ozone or the observed ozone at a given year for the EQBO-MJO event in January 2006. The realistic ozone improves the temperature simulation in the UTLS. However, its impacts on the MJO are not evident. The MJO phase and amplitude do not change much when the ozone is prescribed with observation. While it may suggest that the ozone-radiative feedback plays a rather minor role in the QBO-MJO connection, it could also result from model biases in UTLS temperature and not-well organized MJO in the model.

人工酸性雨가 소나무 및 개나리 盆植苗土壤의 化學的 性質에 미치는 影響 (Effects of Simulated Acid Rain on Chemical Properties of the Experimental Soil of pinus densiflora S. et Z. and Forsythia Koreana Nak. Seedlings)

  • 정용문
    • 한국대기환경학회지
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    • 제4권1호
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    • pp.33-44
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    • 1988
  • For the purpose of examining the effects of simulated acid rain on the chemical properties of the experimental soil in Pinus densiflora seedlings and Forsythia koreana rooted cuttings, the experimental design of randomized block arrangement with three replications was implemented in the experimental field of Yesan National Agricultural Junior College. One-year-old Pinus densiflora seedlings and Forsythia koreana cuttings were planted in the pots filled the mixed soils (nursery soil: forest soil of siliceous sandy loam = 1 : V/V)in the early spring of 1985. The regime of artificil acid rain, in terms of spray frequency per monthly and spray amount at single treatment per plot, was simulated on the basis of climatological data averaged from 30 years records. Simulated acid rain (pH 2.0, pH4.0, and pH 5.5 as control) containing sulfuric and nitric acid in the ratio of 3:2 (chemical equivalant basis) diluted ground water, were treated on the experimental plants under condition of cutting off the natural precipitation with vinyl tunnel, during the growing season (May 1 to August 31) in 1985. THe results obtained in this study were as follows; 1. Soil acidity was dropped, and exchangeable aluminum contents in the soil was dramatically increased in both species, with decreasing pH levels of acid rain. 2. Exchangeable potassium, clacium, magnesium contents, and base saturation degree of the soil were highly drcreased in two species as the pH levels of acid rain decreased. 3. In two species, sulfate concentrations in the soil were decreased of pH 4.0 treatment, and remarkably increased at pH 2.0 treatment of acid rain in comparison with control. 4. Total nitrogen and available phosphate contents of the soil were not affected by acid rain treatment in the both species, and Fe contents at pH 2.0 treatment were highest among three acid rain treatments.

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Ecosysteme de I′Etang de Berre (Mediterranee nord-occidentale) : Caracteres Generales Physiques, Chimiques et Biologiques

  • Kim, Ki-Tai
    • 환경생물
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    • 제22권2호
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    • pp.247-258
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    • 2004
  • Climatological, hydrological and planktonical research studies, measurements of primary production and photosynthetic efficiency from December 1976 to December 1978 have been carried out in two brackish lakes: Lake Etang de Berre and Lake Etang de Vaine located in the French Mediterranean coast, in the region of Carry-le-Rouet located on the north-west Mediterranean near Marseilles, and in fresh water inflows from 4 Rivers (Touloubre, Durance, Arc, Durancole) to Lake Etang de Berre. Physico-chemical parameters were measured for this study: water temperature, salinity, density, pH, alcalinity, dissolved oxygen (% saturation), phosphate, nitrate, nitrite, silicate etc. Diverse biological parameters were also studied: photosynthetic pigments, phaeopigments, specific composition and biomass of phytoplankton, primary pelagic production etc. Climatical factors were studied: air-temperature, solar-radiation, evaporation, direction (including strength) of winds, precipitation and freshwater volume of the four rivers. The changes in Lake ‘Etang de Berre’ ecosystem depend on the quality of the water in the Durance River, and on the effects of seawater near the entrance of the Caronte Canal. The water quality of the lake varies horizontally and vertically as a result of atmospheric phenomena, maritime currents and tides. The distribution of water temperatures is generally heterogeneous. Southeasterly winds and the Northeasterly Mistral wind are important in the origins of circulated and mixed water masses. These winds are both frequent and strong. They have, as a result, a great effect on the water environment of Lake Etang de Berre. In theory, the annual precipitation in this region is well over eight times the water mass of the lake. The water of the Durance River flows into Lake Etang de Berre through the EDF Canal, amounting to 90% of the precipitation. However, reduction of rainfall in dry seasons has a serious effect on the hydrological characteristics of the lake. The temperature in the winter is partially caused by the low temperature of fresh water, particularly that of the Durance River. The hydrological season of fresh and brackish water is about one month ahead of the hydrological season of sea water in its vicinity. The salinity of Lake Etang de Berre runs approximately 3$\textperthousand$, except at lower levels and near the entrance to the Caronte Canal. However, when the volume of the Durance River water is reduced in the summer and fall, the salinity rises to 15$\textperthousand$. In the lake, the ratio of fresh water to sea water is six to one (6:1). The large quantities of seston conveyed by rivers, particularly the Durance diversion, strongly reduce the transparency in the brackish waters. Although the amount of sunshine is also notable, transparency is slight because of the large amount of seston, carried chiefly by Tripton in the fresh water of the Durance River. Therefore, photosynthesis generally occurs only in the surface layer. The transparency progressively increases from freshwater to open seawater, as mineral particles sink to the bottom (about 1.7kg $m^{-2}a^{-1}$ on the average in brackish lakes). The concentration of dissolved oxygen and the rate of oxygen saturation in seawater (Carry-le-Rouet) ranged from 5.0 to 6.0 $m\ell$ㆍ.$1^{-1}$, and from 95 to 105%, respectively. The amount of dissolved oxygen in Etang de Berre oscillated between 2.9 and 268.3%. The monographs of phosphate, nitrate, nitrite and silicate were published as a part of a study on the ecology of phytoplankton in these environments. Horizontal and vertical distributions of these nutriments were studied in detail. The recent diversion of the Durance River into Lake Etang de Berre has effected a fundamental change in this formerly marine environment, which has had a great impact in its plankton populations. A total of 182 taxa were identified, including 111 Bacillariophyceae, 44 Chlorophyceae, and 15 Cyanophyceae. The most abundant species are small freshwater algae, mainly Chlorophyceae. The average density is about $10^{8}$ cells $1^{-1}$ in Lake Etang de Berre, and about double that amount in Lake Etang de Vaine. Differences in phytoplankton abundance and composition at the various stations or at various depths are slight. Cell biovolume V (equivalent to true biomass), plasma volume VP (‘useful’ biomass) and, simultaneously. the cell surface area S and S/V ratio through the measurement of cell dimensions were computed as the parameters of phytoplankton productivity and metabolism. Pigment concentrations are generally very high on account of phytoplankton blooms by Cyanophyceae, Chlorophyceae and Cryptophyceae. On the other hand, in freshwaters and marine waters, pigment concentrations are comparatively low and stable, showing slight annual variation. The variations of ATP concentration were closely related to those of chlorophyll a and phytoplankton blooms only in marine waters. The carbon uptake rates ranged between 38 and 1091 mg$Cm^{-2}d^{-1}$, with an average surface value of 256 mg; water-column carbon-uptake rates ranged between 240 and 2310 mg$Cm^{-2}d^{-1}$, with an average of 810, representing 290 mg$Cm^{-2}$, per year 45 000 tons per year of photosynthetized carbon for the whole lake. Gross photosynthetic production measured by the method of Ryther was studied over a 2-year period. The values obtained from marine water(Carry-le-Rouet) ranged from 23 to 2 337 mg$Cm^{-2}d^{-1}$, with a weighted average of 319, representing about 110 gCm$^{-2}$ per year. The values in brakish water (Etang de Berre) ranged from 14 to 1778 mg$Cm^{-2}d^{-1}$, with a weighted average of 682, representing 250 mg$Cm^{-2}$ per year and 38 400 tons per year of photosynthesized carbon for the whole lake.

해양부이 자료를 이용한 황해 남동부 해역 표층 열속 산출 (Calculation of Surface Heat Flux in the Southeastern Yellow Sea Using Ocean Buoy Data)

  • 김선복;장경일
    • 한국해양학회지:바다
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    • 제19권3호
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    • pp.169-179
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    • 2014
  • 황해 남동부 해역에 설치한 해양부이(YSROB)에서 약 27개월간 관측된 장파, 단파 복사량을 포함한 대기, 해양 변수와 COARE 3.0 알고리즘을 이용하여 월평균 해양-대기간 열속을 산출하고 기존 연구결과와 비교하였다. YSROB 위치에서 열속은 순 단파복사(Qi)에 의해 해양은 대기로부터 열을 얻고 순 장파복사($Q_b$), 현열($Q_h$), 잠열($Q_e$)에 의해서 열손실이 일어난다. 전체 열손실 중 $Q_e$에 의한 손실이 51%로 가장 크게 나타났으며 $Q_b$$Q_h$에 의한 손실은 각각 34%, 15% 이다. 순열속($Q_n$)은 $Q_i$가 최대인 5월에 최대($191.4W/m^2$)이며 모든 열속 성분이 최소인 12월에 최소($-264.9W/m^2$)이다. 연평균 $Q_n$$1.9W/m^2$ 이지만 관측기기의 정확도에 의한 오차산정 결과(최대 ${\pm}19.7W/m^2$)를 고려하면 무시할 정도로 작다. YSROB과 동일한 위치에서의 기존 월별 열속 산출 결과는 YSROB에서 실측값에 기반한 열속에 비해 여름철 $Q_i$가 약 $10{\sim}40W/m^2$ 과소 평가된 반면에 겨울철에는 $Q_e$$Q_h$에 의한 열 손실이 각각 약 $50W/m^2$, $30{\sim}70W/m^2$ 과다하게 산출되었다. 이로 인하여 해양이 열을 얻는 4월~8월에는 기존 연구에서의 열 획득량이 본 연구 결과보다 적게 나타나며, 해양이 열을 잃는 겨울철에는 기존 연구에서의 해양으로부터의 열 손실이 본 연구 결과에 비해 크게 나타난다. 특히, 12월과 1월의 $Q_n$ 차이는 약 $70{\sim}130W/m^2$에 달한다. 장기적인 재분석장(MERRA) 분석 결과에 의하면 이와 같은 월평균 열속의 차이는 연변동 등 시간 변동에 의한 것이 아니라 열속 산출 시 사용된 자료의 부정확성에 기인하는 것으로 판단된다. 본 연구 결과로부터 기존의 기후적인 열속을 연구에 활용하거나 수치모델에 사용함에 있어 주의가 요망된다.

연별 및 월별 FAO Penman-Monteith 기준증발산 추세 분석 (Trends of Annual and Monthly FAO Penman-Monteith Reference Evapotranspiration)

  • 임창수
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제28권1B호
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    • pp.65-77
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    • 2008
  • 본 연구에서는 지리 및 지형적 특성과 도시화에 따른 기후변화가 기준증발산량에 미치는 영향을 파악하기 위하여 FAO P-M 기준증발산식을 이용하여 연별 및 각 월별 기준증발산량과 기준증발산식의 에너지항 및 공기동력항 변화추세를 분석하였다. 추세분석을 위하여 전국 21개 연구지역에서 일별 기후자료를 수집하여 Spearman 순위상관분석, Sen분석(Sen's estimator of slope) 그리고 실제변화율분석과 선형회귀분석 등을 실시하였다. 또한 도시지역 특성에 따라 21개 연구지역을 군집화하였고, 각 군집에 따른 기준증발산과 기준증발산식의 에너지항 및 공기동력항의 변화를 분석하였다. 연구결과에 의하면 도시화정도는 기준증발산, 에너지항 및 공기동력항의 변화추세 및 크기에 밀접한 영향이 있으나, 변화추세 정도(Sen's slope)에는 큰 영향이 없는 것으로 나타났다. 에너지항의 경우 해안지역에서는 주로 증가추세를 보이는 반면, 내륙지역에서는 일부 월을 제외하고 감소추세를 보이고 있다. 또한 지역 경사도는 에너지항보다는 공기동력항 변화추세 정도(Sen's slope)에 더 큰 영향력을 보이는 것으로 판단된다. 공기동력항의 경우 해안 및 내륙지역에서 증가추세를 보이고 있고, 내륙지역이 해안지역보다 더 큰 공기동력항의 증가추세를 보이고 있다.