• Title/Summary/Keyword: Climate variability

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Analyzing off-line Noah land surface model spin-up behavior for initialization of global numerical weather prediction model (전지구수치예측모델의 토양수분 초기화를 위한 오프라인 Noah 지면모델 스핀업 특성분석)

  • Jun, Sanghee;Park, Jeong-Hyun;Boo, Kyung-On;Kang, Hyun-Suk
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.3
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    • pp.181-191
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    • 2020
  • In order to produce accurate initial condition of soil moisture for global Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), spin-up experiment is carried out using Noah Land Surface Model (LSM). The model is run repeatedly through 10 years, under the atmospheric forcing condition of 2008-2017 until climatological land surface state is achieved. Spin-up time for the equilibrium condition of soil moisture exhibited large variability across Koppen-Geiger climate classification zone and soil layer. Top soil layer took the longgest time to equilibrate in polar region. From the second layer to the fourth layer, arid region equilibrated slower (7 years) than other regions. This result means that LSM reached to equilibrium condition within 10 year loop. Also, spin-up time indicated inverse correlation with near surface temperature and precipitation amount. Initialized from the equilibrium state, LSM was spun up to obtain land surface state in 2018. After 6 months from restarted run, LSM simulates soil moisture, skin temperature and evaportranspiration being similar land surface state in 2018. Based on the results, proposed LSM spin-up system could be used to produce proper initial soil moisture condition despite updates of physics or ancillaries for LSM coupled with NWP.

Estimation of Aboveground Forest Biomass Carbon Stock by Satellite Remote Sensing - A Comparison between k-Nearest Neighbor and Regression Tree Analysis - (위성영상을 활용한 지상부 산림바이오매스 탄소량 추정 - k-Nearest Neighbor 및 Regression Tree Analysis 방법의 비교 분석 -)

  • Jung, Jaehoon;Nguyen, Hieu Cong;Heo, Joon;Kim, Kyoungmin;Im, Jungho
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.651-664
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    • 2014
  • Recently, the demands of accurate forest carbon stock estimation and mapping are increasing in Korea. This study investigates the feasibility of two methods, k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN) and Regression Tree Analysis (RTA), for carbon stock estimation of pilot areas, Gongju and Sejong cities. The 3rd and 5th ~ 6th NFI data were collected together with Landsat TM acquired in 1992, 2010 and Aster in 2009. Additionally, various vegetation indices and tasseled cap transformation were created for better estimation. Comparison between two methods was conducted by evaluating carbon statistics and visualizing carbon distributions on the map. The comparisons indicated clear strengths and weaknesses of two methods: kNN method has produced more consistent estimates regardless of types of satellite images, but its carbon maps were somewhat smooth to represent the dense carbon areas, particularly for Aster 2009 case. Meanwhile, RTA method has produced better performance on mean bias results and representation of dense carbon areas, but they were more subject to types of satellite images, representing high variability in spatial patterns of carbon maps. Finally, in order to identify the increases in carbon stock of study area, we created the difference maps by subtracting the 1992 carbon map from the 2009 and 2010 carbon maps. Consequently, it was found that the total carbon stock in Gongju and Sejong cities was drastically increased during that period.

The Study on Flood Runoff Simulation using Runoff Model with Gauge-adjusted Radar data (보정 레이더 자료와 유출 모형을 이용한 홍수유출모의에 관한 연구)

  • Bae, Young-Hye;Kim, Byung-Sik;Kim, Hung-Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.51-61
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    • 2010
  • Changes in climate have largely increased concentrated heavy rainfall, which in turn is causing enormous damages to humans and properties. Therefore, it is important to understand the spatial-temporal features of rainfall. In this study, RADAR rainfall was used to calculate gridded areal rainfall which reflects the spatial-temporal variability. In addition, Kalman-filter method, a stochastical technique, was used to combine ground rainfall network with RADAR rainfall network to calculate areal rainfall. Thiessen polygon method, Inverse distance weighting method, and Kriging method were used for calculating areal rainfall, and the calculated data was compared with adjusted areal RADAR rainfall measured using the Kalman-filter method. The result showed that RADAR rainfall adjusted with Kalman-filter method well-reproduced the distribution of raw RADAR rainfall which has a similar spatial distribution as the actual rainfall distribution. The adjusted RADAR rainfall also showed a similar rainfall volume as the volume shown in rain gauge data. Anseong-Cheon basin was used as a study area and the RADAR rainfall adjusted with Kalman-filter method was applied in $Vflo^{TM}$ model, a physical-based distributed model, and ModClark model, a semi-distributed model. As a result, $Vflo^{TM}$ model simulated peak time and peak value similar to that of observed hydrograph. ModClark model showed good results for total runoff volume. However, for verifying the parameter, $Vflo^{TM}$ model showed better reproduction of observed hydrograph than ModClark model. These results confirmed that flood runoff simulation is applicable in domestic settings(in South Korea) if highly accurate areal rainfall is calculated by combining gauge rainfall and RADAR rainfall data and the simulation is performed in link to the distributed hydrological model.

Variability of Contribution of Picophytoplankton in the Phytoplankton Community in the Southwestern East Sea (가을철 동해 남서부해역 초미소식물플랑크톤의 전체 식물플랑크톤 생체량에 대한 기여도 변동성)

  • PARK, MI OK;LEE, YE JI
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.77-87
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    • 2017
  • Picophytoplankton, an important primary producer especially at the oligotrophic region, is known to contribute a significant portion of the total phytoplankton biomass in the East Sea of Korea. During autumn in the southwestern East Sea, frequent upwellings and oligotrophic conditions occur and annual variation of primary productivity is known to be significant. Moreover sea surface temperature (SST) of the East Sea is steeply increasing compared to global average increase, so various changes in marine ecosystem related with increase of SST are reported. Taking such circumstances into consideration, we measured the contribution from picophytoplankton fraction to total phytoplankton composition by size fraction of phytoplankton biomass during the autumn seasons from 2011, 2013 and 2015 and examined the variation of the phytoplankton composition. As a result of size fraction analyses, we found that the variation of contribution from picophytoplankton(<$3{\mu}m$) to total community of phytoplankton was high and the average fractions of picophytoplankton were measured as 38% (2011), 59% (2013), 7% (2015), respectively. The difference between measured SST and annual mean SST (${\Delta}T$) was highest ($+1.6^{\circ}C$) in autumn of 2013 and lowest ($-0.9^{\circ}C$) in autumn of 2015. The close positive correlation between ${\Delta}SST$ and fraction of picophytoplankton was confirmed($R^2$ > 0.9). The increase in SST at the southern East Sea was confirmed as one of the main environmental factors in the increase in the increase of the contribution from picophytoplankton. Monitoring of changes in the community structure of primary producers and the influences of the environmental factors including SST in the East Sea is necessary to understand the interactions of ecosystem of the East Sea and the climate change in the near future.

Structurization in Community Composition and Diversity Pattern of Soil Seed Banks in Gwangneung Forest, South Korea (한국 광릉숲 매토종자에서 군집 종조성 및 다양성 양상의 구조화)

  • Kim, Han-Gyeol;Oh, Seung-Hwan;Cho, Yong-Chan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.110 no.4
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    • pp.577-589
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    • 2021
  • Soil seed bank community contributes to the long-term conservation of plant diversity and vegetation dynamics, and their decreasing diversity and density with soil depth provide critical perspectives (deterministic and stochastic) for understanding the community disassembly process. We analyzed changes in species composition and diversity and structuring patterns by soil layer (top and bottom), including surface vegetation, in Gwangneung Forest, a mature forest with a vegetation climate in the temperate central part of the Korean Peninsula. From two layers of soil collected with a vertical difference of 10 cm, 934 specimens of 27 families, 40 genera, 44 species, three varieties, and 47 taxa, germinated. Although species diversity and germination density decreased in most comparative characteristics, including growth type, there was no statistical significance due to large deviations. Within-group variability of species composition was similar in the upper and lower soils, as was the decline pattern in co-occurred species (ζ-diversity) and change in species retention probability. The structuring process of the community composition in the two soil layers was fitted with an exponential correlation rather than a power function, demonstrating the dominance of the stochastic process. The pattern in diversity and species turnover according to soil depth in Gwangneung Forest was discovered to be structured by stochastic random events, such as seed vertical movement rather than interaction with trait characteristics.

Modelling and Residual Analysis for Water Level Series of Upo Wetland (우포늪 수위 자료의 시계열 모형화 및 잔차 분석)

  • Kim, Kyunghun;Han, Daegun;Kim, Jungwook;Lim, Jonghun;Lee, Jongso;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.66-76
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    • 2019
  • Recently, natural disasters such as floods and droughts are frequently occurred due to climate change and the damage is also increasing. Wetland is known to play an important role in reducing and minimizing the damage. In particular, water level variability needs to be analyzed in order to understand the various functions of wetland as well as the reduction of damage caused by natural disaster. Therefore, in this study, we fitted water level series of Upo wetland in Changnyeong, Gyeongnam province to a proper time series model and residual test was performed to confirm the appropriateness of the model. In other words, ARIMA model was constructed and its residual tests were performed using existing nonparametric statistics, BDS statistic, and Close Returns Histogram(CRH). The results of residual tests were compared and especially, we showed the applicability of CRH to analyze the residuals of time series model. As a result, CRH produced not only accurate randomness test result, but also produced result in a simple calculation process compared to the other methods. Therefore, we have shown that CRH and BDS statistic can be effective tools for analyzing residual in time series model.

Assessment of Photochemical Reflectance Index Measured at Different Spatial Scales Utilizing Leaf Reflectometer, Field Hyper-Spectrometer, and Multi-spectral Camera with UAV (드론 장착 다중분광 카메라, 소형 필드 초분광계, 휴대용 잎 반사계로부터 관측된 서로 다른 공간규모의 광화학반사지수 평가)

  • Ryu, Jae-Hyun;Oh, Dohyeok;Jang, Seon Woong;Jeong, Hoejeong;Moon, Kyung Hwan;Cho, Jaeil
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.34 no.6_1
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    • pp.1055-1066
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    • 2018
  • Vegetation indices on the basis of optical characteristics of vegetation can represent various conditions such as canopy biomass and physiological activity. Those have been mostly developed with the large-scaled applications of multi-band optical sensors on-board satellites. However, the sensitivity of vegetation indices for detecting vegetation features will be different depending on the spatial scales. Therefore, in this study, the investigation of photochemical reflectance index (PRI), known as one of useful vegetation indices for detecting photosynthetic ability and vegetation stress, under the three spatial scales was conducted using multi-spectral camera installed in unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV),field spectrometer, and leaf reflectometer. In the leaf scale, diurnal PRI had minimum values at different local-time according to the compass direction of leaf face. It meant that each leaf in some moment had the different degree of light use efficiency (LUE). In early growth stage of crop, $PRI_{leaf}$ was higher than $PRI_{stands}$ and $PRI_{canopy}$ because the leaf scale is completely not governed by the vegetation cover fraction.In the stands and canopy scales, PRI showed a large spatial variability unlike normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). However, the bias for the relationship between $PRI_{stands}$ and $PRI_{canopy}$ is lower than that in $NDVI_{stands}$ and $NDVI_{canopy}$. Our results will help to understand and utilize PRIs observed at different spatial scales.

Spatial Distribution of Extremely Low Sea-Surface Temperature in the Global Ocean and Analysis of Data Visualization in Earth Science Textbooks (전구 대양의 극저 해수면온도 공간 분포와 지구과학교과서 데이터 시각화 분석)

  • Park, Kyung-Ae;Son, Yu-Mi
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.41 no.6
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    • pp.599-616
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    • 2020
  • Sea-surface temperature (SST) is one of the most important oceanic variables for understanding air-sea interactions, heat flux variations, and oceanic circulation in the global ocean. Extremely low SSTs from 0℃ down to -2℃ should be more important than other normal temperatures because of their notable roles in inducing and regulating global climate and environmental changes. To understand the temporal and spatial variability of such extremely low SSTs in the global ocean, the long-term SST climatology was calculated using the daily SST database of satellites observed for the period from 1982 to 2018. In addition, the locations of regions with extremely low surface temperatures of less than 0℃ and monthly variations of isothermal lines of 0℃ were investigated using World Ocean Atlas (WOA) climatology based on in-situ oceanic measurements. As a result, extremely low temperatures occupied considerable areas in polar regions such as the Arctic Ocean and Antarctic Ocean, and marginal seas at high latitudes. Six earth science textbooks were analyzed to investigate how these extremely low temperatures were visualized. In most textbooks, illustrations of SSTs began not from extremely low temperatures below 0℃ but from a relatively high temperature of 0℃ or higher, which prevented students from understanding of concepts and roles of the low SSTs. As data visualization is one of the key elements of data literacy, illustrations of the textbooks should be improved to ensure that SST data are adequately visualized in the textbooks. This study emphasized that oceanic literacy and data literacy could be cultivated and strengthened simultaneously through visualizations of oceanic big data by using satellite SST data and oceanic in-situ measurements.

Evaluation of conceptual rainfall-runoff models for different flow regimes and development of ensemble model (개념적 강우유출 모형의 유량구간별 적합성 평가 및 앙상블 모델 구축)

  • Yu, Jae-Ung;Park, Moon-Hyung;Kim, Jin-Guk;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.105-119
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    • 2021
  • An increase in the frequency and intensity of both floods and droughts has been recently observed due to an increase in climate variability. Especially, land-use change associated with industrial structure and urbanization has led to an imbalance between water supply and demand, acting as a constraint in water resource management. Accurate rainfall-runoff analysis plays a critical role in evaluating water availability in the water budget analysis. This study aimed to explore various continuous rainfall-runoff models over the Soyanggang dam watershed. Moreover, the ensemble modeling framework combining multiple models was introduced to present scenarios on streamflow considering uncertainties. In the ensemble modeling framework, rainfall-runoff models with fewer parameters are generally preferred for effective regionalization. In this study, more than 40 continuous rainfall-runoff models were applied to the Soyanggang dam watershed, and nine rainfall-runoff models were primarily selected using different goodness-of-fit measures. This study confirmed that the ensemble model showed better performance than the individual model over different flow regimes.

Development of a Data-Driven Model for Forecasting Outflow to Establish a Reasonable River Water Management System (합리적인 하천수 관리체계 구축을 위한 자료기반 방류량 예측모형 개발)

  • Yoo, Hyung Ju;Lee, Seung Oh;Choi, Seo Hye;Park, Moon Hyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.75-92
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    • 2020
  • In most cases of the water balance analysis, the return flow ratio for each water supply was uniformly determined and applied, so it has been contained a problem that the volume of available water would be incorrectly calculated. Therefore, sewage and wastewater among the return water were focused in this study and the data-driven model was developed to forecast the outflow from the sewage treatment plant. The forecasting results of LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory), GRU (Gated Recurrent Units), and SVR (Support Vector Regression) models, which are mainly used for forecasting the time series data in most fields, were compared with the observed data to determine the optimal model parameters for forecasting outflow. As a result of applying the model, the root mean square error (RMSE) of the GRU model was smaller than those of the LSTM and SVR models, and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) was higher than those of others. Thus, it was judged that the GRU model could be the optimal model for forecasting the outflow in sewage treatment plants. However, the forecasting outflow tends to be underestimated and overestimated in extreme sections. Therefore, the additional data for extreme events and reducing the minimum time unit of input data were necessary to enhance the accuracy of forecasting. If the water use of the target site was reviewed and the additional parameters that could reflect seasonal effects were considered, more accurate outflow could be forecasted to be ready for climate variability in near future. And it is expected to use as fundamental resources for establishing a reasonable river water management system based on the forecasting results.