• 한국농림기상학회지
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.312-319
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• 2013

주어진 작물모형이 기후요소 중 어떤 것에 얼마만큼 반응하는지 상대적인 민감도를 모르는 상태에서 계산결과만으로 미래 전망을 내리는 것은 적절치 않을 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 미래기후전망에 근거한 국내 보리 품종의 민감도 변화 실험을 통해 기온, 강수량, 이산화탄소 농도의 변화가 작물의 생산량에 미치는 상대적인 영향을 분석하였다. 주요 보리 품종(올보리-수원, 알보리-밀양, 새쌀보리-익산, 삼도보리-진주)에 맞게 품종모수가 조정된 CERES-Barley를 RCP 8.5 시나리오의 2071-2100 기후변동범위(1981-2010 기준 기온 $-1^{\circ}C{\sim}+8^{\circ}C$, 강수량 -50% ~ +50%, $CO_2$ 농도 330ppm ~ 900ppm)에 근거한 99개 처리조합에 의해 구동하였다. 이들 처리조합에 의해 생성된 11,880개 종실수량 계산결과를 토대로 각 기후요소의 변화에 따른 종실수량의 민감도를 분석한 결과 이산화탄소농도 변화에 가장 민감한 반응을 보인 반면 강수량 변동에 대한 반응이 가장 무디었고, 온도변화에 대해서는 기준온도대비 상승, 하강 모두 감소하는 경향이었지만 품종 별로 차이가 뚜렷하였다. CERES-Barley는 우리나라에서 농업부문 기후변화 영향평가에 널리 사용되므로 실험설계 시 이러한 모형의 민감도를 감안하여야 현실성 있는 생육모의가 가능하다.

• 한국농림기상학회지
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.183-196
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• 2010

아시아 주요 곡물 생산지의 경제 성장과 지표 이용 변화에 따른 인간 활동의 증가는 아시아 몬순의 경향을 변화 시켰다. 본 연구에서는 지표-해양 대비, 하층제트 기류(LLJ), 티벳 고층 및 상층 편동풍 제트 기류를 포함한 인도 여름 몬순의 중요한 구성 요소를 모사하여 지역기후 모형 (RegCM3)의 성능을 평가하였다. 3년(1994: 다우 해, 2002: 평균 해, 2002: 가뭄 해)의 비교 자료를 선택하여 RegCM3은 매년 4월 1일부터 10월 1일까지 60 km의 해상도로 적분하였다. 순환과 강수 모사 결과는 NCEP/NCAR 재해석 자료와 Global Precipitation Climatology Centre(GPCC)의 관측 자료로 검증하였다. RegCM3 모형 모사의 중요 결과는 다음과 같다. (a) LLJ 는 다소 강하였으며 아라비아해에서 다우 해에 두 개로 분할되었으나, 평균 및 가뭄 해에서는 분할되지 않았다. (b) 단일의 대형 고기압이 다우 해에 존재하였으나, 가뭄 해에는 약하고 두 개의 고기압대로 분할되었다. (c) 강수의 공간분포 모사는 대부분 인도 지역에서 GPCC의 관측 강수량과 유사하였다. (d) NIMBUS-7 SMMR 적설 자료를 이용한 민감도 실험에서 북동 및 남부 인도 반도 지역에서 주로 강수량의 감소가 나타났으며, 티벳 지역에서는 4월 적설량이 0.1m 감소하는 것으로 나타났다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2015년도 학술발표회
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• pp.233-233
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• 2015

Vu Gia - Thu Bon basin is located in central Vietnam between Truong Son mountain range on the border with Lao in the west and the East Sea in the east. The basin occupies about 10,350 km2 or roughly 90% of the Quang Nam Province and includes Da Nang, a very large city with about 876,000 inhabitants. Total annual rainfall ranges from about 2,000 mm in central and downstream areas to more than 4,000 mm in southern mountainous areas. Rainfall during the monsoon season accounts for 65 to 80% of total annual rainfall. The highest amount of rainfall occurs in October and November which accounts for 40 to 50% of the annual rainfall. Rainfall in the dry season represents about 20 to 35% of the total annual rainfall. The low rainfall season usually occurs from February to April, accounting for only 3 to 5% of the total annual rainfall. The mean annual flow volume in the basin is $19.1{\times}109m 3$. Similar to the distribution of rainfall, annual flows are distinguished by two distinct seasons (the flood season and the low-flow season). The flood season commonly starts in the mid-September and ends in early January. Flows during the flood season account for 62 to 69% of the total annual water volume, while flows in the dry season comprise 22 to 38% of total annual run-off. The water volume gauged in November, the highest flow month, accounts for 26 to 31% of the total annual run-off while the driest period is April with flows of 2 to 3% of the total annual run-off. There are some hydropower projects in the Vu Gia - Thu Bon basin as the cascade of Song Bung 2, Song Bung 4, and Song Bung 5, the A Vuong project currently under construction, the Dak Mi 1 and Dak Mi 4 projects on the Khai tributary, and the Song Con project on the Con River. Both the Khai tributary and the Song Con join the Bung River downstream of SB5, although the Dak Mi 4 project involves an inter-basin diversion to Thu Bon. Much attention has recently been focused on the effects that climate variability and human activities have had on runoff. In this study, data from the Vu Gia - Thu Bon River Basin in the central of Viet Nam were analyzed to investigate changes in annual runoff during the period of 1977-2010. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the Mann-Kendall-Sneyers test were used to identify trend and step change point in the annual runoff. It was found that the basin had a significant increasing trend in annual runoff. The hydrologic sensitivity analysis method was employed to evaluate the effects of climate variability and human activities on mean annual runoff for the human-induced period based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. This study quantitatively distinguishes the effects between climate variability and human activities on runoff, which can do duty for a reference for regional water resources assessment and management.

• 한국해양학회지:바다
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• 제29권3호
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• pp.139-152
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• 2024

이 연구에서는 GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)에서 개발한 해양순환모델인 MOM6 (Modular Ocean Model Version 6)를 사용하여 저해상도 전지구 해양순환모델의 성능을 평가하고 개선 방안을 모색하기 위해 다양한 민감도 실험을 수행하였다. 특히, ePBL (energetics based planetary boundary layer) 혼합층 방안의 적용, 조석 처방, 그리고 하이브리드 수직격자체계의 도입이 모델의 표층 수온과 염분 모의 성능에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 연구 결과, ePBL 혼합층 방안은 적도 태평양에서의 혼합층 두께의 과대 모의와 고온 편향을 완화하는 데 효과적이었으며, 조석 처방은 황해와 동해에서 해양 구조를 개선하는데 일부 기여하였다. 또한, 하이브리드 수직격자체계는 수온 및 염분의 수직 구조를 보다 정확하게 모의할 수 있게 하여 모델의 성능을 개선하였다. 이 연구는 해양순환모델의 정확성을 높이기 위한 구체적인 방안을 제시하고 있으며, 전지구적인 해양 및 기후 모델링의 성능 개선에 기여할 수 있을 것으로 기대한다.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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• 제18권12호
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• pp.197-205
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• 2013

본 연구에서는 동적 임분 생장모델과 Simulated Annealing 휴리스틱 기법을 적용하여 최적의 산림시업체계를 도출하기 위한 임분탄소최적화 프로그램을 개발하였다. SA 휴리스틱 알고리즘은 다양한 경영목표를 다룰 때 비교적 짧은 시간 내에 만족할만한 수준의 경영안을 제공할 수 있는 최적화 기법으로서, 더 이상 최적해를 찾지 못하고 목표 값이 어떤 일정한 값(Local Optimum)에 계속 머무는 현상을 해결하기 위해 열균형 테스트를 이용하고 있다. 열균형 테스트에 적용되는 온도저감율 파라미터 값이 최적화 프로세스의 목적함수 값과 반복횟수에 미치는 영향을 분석하기 위해 본 연구에서는 온도저감율에 따른 민감도 분석을 실시하였다. 개발된 프로그램을 이용하여 기존의 산림경영에 주로 적용되고 있는 시업체계(베이스라인), 목재수확량 최대와 탄소저장량 최대의 3가지 산림시업 시나리오에 대해 비교 분석을 한 결과, 목재수확량 최대를 목표로 한 시나리오가 3개 시나리오 가운데 목재수확량이 가장 높은 것으로 나타났으며, 또한 탄소저장량을 최대로 하는 시나리오가 탄소저장량이 가장 높은 것으로 나타나, 본 연구에서 개발된 프로그램이 최적화된 결과를 도출하는 것으로 판단됐다. 온도저감율 파라미터 값에 대한 민감도 분석에서는 온도저감율에 따라 목적함수의 최적 값과 최적화 프로세스 반복횟수가 뚜렷한 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구를 통해 개발된 임분탄소 최적화 프로그램은 앞으로 우리나라 산림의 탄소 최적화 시업체계 개발에 활용 될 것으로 기대된다.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제60권6호
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• pp.33-42
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• 2018

This study evaluated the vulnerability of irrigation water supplied to the crops. The target areas were selected as Dangjin-si, Yesan-gun, and Cheongyang-gun. The survey items of the climate exposure were annual precipitation and rainless days. The sensitivity survey items were cultivation area, groundwater level, evapotranspiration and groundwater consumption. The survey items of the adaptability were Number of groundwater well and Water supply ratio. The survey methods for these items were investigated in a variety of ways, including "National Climate Data Service System", "Korean Statistical Information Service", "National ground water monitoring network in korea annual report" and "Chungcheongnam-do Statistical Yearbook", "HOMWRS". Vulnerability assessment results were rated within the range of 0~100 points. The first grade was rated 0-25, the second grade 26-50, the third grade 51-75, and the fourth grade 76-100. And the lower the score, the lower the vulnerability. As a result, Cheongyang-gun showed a high vulnerability of over 50 points, Dangjin-si showed a low vulnerability rating of 31.20 points and a Yesan-gun of 36.00 points.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.9-19
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• 2006

The purpose of this research is development of radar data assimilation observed at Jindo S-band radar The accurate observational data assimilation system is one of the important factors to meteorological numerical prediction of the region scale. Diagnostic analysis system LAPS(Local Analysis and Prediction System) developed by US FSL(Forecast Systems Laboratory) is adopted assimilation system of the Honam district forecasting system. The LAPS system was adjusted in calculation environment in the Honam district. And the improvement in the predictability by the application of the LAPS system was confirmed by the experiment applied to Honam district local severe rain case of generating 22 July 2003. The results are as follows: 1) Precipitation amounts of Gwangju is strong associated with the strong in lower level from analysis of aerological data. This indicated the circulation field especially, 850hPa layer, acts important role to precipitation in Homan area. 2) Wind in coastal area tends to be stronger than inland area and radar data show the strong wind in conversions zone around front. 3) Radar data assimilation make the precipitation area be extended and maximum amount of precipitation be smaller. 4) In respect to contribution rate of different height wind field on precipitation variation, radar data assimilation of upper level is smaller than that of lower level.

• 통합자연과학논문집
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.30-38
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• 2018

CALPUFF is one of the recommended air pollution models by EPA with AERMOD. It has been used to simulate the ambient concentration of critical air pollutants as well as non-critical pollutants such as persistent organic matters and the organic materials causing odor. In this model, the air pollutants go through dispersion, transportation, chemical reaction, and deposition process. These mechanisms are significantly influenced by meteorological condition. This study produces the meteorological field in three different methods for the simulation of $SO_2$ using CALPUFF: 1) CALMET model by using both ground-level and aerological observation, 2) CALMET model by using MM5 results with NCEP/NCAR reanalyzed data, 3) CALMET model by using MM5 results in which FDDA is applied with NCEP/NCAR reanalyzed data as well as the meteorological data of Korea Meteorological Administration. As a result of CALPUFF model, the resolved concentration of $SO_2$ showed different behaviors in three cases. For the first case, the fluctuation of SO2 concentration was frequently observed while the fluctuation is reduced in the second and third cases. In addition, the maximum concentration of $SO_2$ in the first case was about 2~3 times higher than the second case, and about 4~6 times higher than the third case. These results can be caused by the accuracy of the resolved meteorological field. It is inferred that the meteorological field of the first case could be less accurate than other two cases. These results show that the use of correct meteorological data can improve the result of dispersion model. Moreover, the contribution of various sources such as point, line, and area sources on the ambient concentration of air pollutant can be roughly estimated from the sensitivity analysis.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2019년도 학술발표회
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• pp.155-155
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• 2019

The Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) models have been developed for assessing agricultural management efforts and their effects on soil and water at the field scale as well as more complex multi-subarea landscapes, whole farms, and watersheds. National Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Wanju, Korea, has modified a key component of APEX application, named APEX-Paddy for simulating water quality with considering appropriate paddy management practices, such as puddling and flood irrigation management. Calibration and validation are an anticipated step before any model application. Simple techniques are essential to assess whether or not a parameter should be adjusted for calibration. However, very few study has been done to evaluate the ability of APEX-Paddy to simulate the impact of multiple management scenarios on nutrients loss. In this study, the observation data from experimental fields at Iksan in South Kora was used in calibration and evaluation process during 2013-2015. The APEX auto- calibration tool (APEX-CUTE) was used for model calibration and sensitivity analysis. Four quantitative statistics, the coefficient of determination ($R^2$),Nash-Sutcliffe(NSE),percentbias(PBIAS)androotmeansquareerror(RMSE)were used in model evaluation. In this study, the hydrological process of the modified model, APEX-Paddy, is being calibrated and tested in predicting runoff discharge rate and nutrient yield. Field-scale calibration and validation processes are described with an emphasis on essential calibration parameters and direction regarding logical sequences of calibration steps. This study helps to understand the calibration and validation way is further provided for applications of APEX-Paddy at the field scales.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제5권3호
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• pp.231-248
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• 2014

The goal of this research is to develop an evaluation method applying 'Green Management Index' introduced by Korean government to assess overall Green management level of the industrial sector. The method can help to grasp the present condition of Green management in Korea and analyze changes in trend. For this research, business types are classified into 8 categories and each evaluation method is developed according to each category. Green management evaluation was conducted in 2013, targeting 513 enterprises and the result was analyzed comparing that of 2011 to understand changes in trend. The evaluation shows that 1) 'strategy and system' section is tentatively vulnerable than other sections, 2) industry with higher sensitivity towards regulations has higher score, 3) there is a significant gap conducting green management between conglomerates and SMEs especially in 'system' section. The total score was elevated by 3 points compared to 2011. It is considered that the elevation of score was attributed to tightened regulations such as Target Management Scheme. Controlled Entities scored 4 points higher and 'GHG and environmental pollution' section increased by 10 points. Also, there is a wide disparity in green management evaluation between controlled entities and non-controlled entities from 5 points in 2011 to 10 points in 2013.