• Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.307-319
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• 2009

Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technology has been regarded as one of the most possible and practical option to reduce the emission of carbon dioxide ($CO_2$) and consequently to mitigate the climate change. Korean government also have started a 10-year R&D project on $CO_2$ storage in sea-bed geological structure including gas field and deep saline aquifer since 2005. Various relevant researches are carried out to cover the initial survey of suitable geological structure storage site, monitoring of the stored $CO_2$ behavior, basic design of $CO_2$ transport and storage process and the risk assessment and management related to $CO_2$ leakage from engineered and geological processes. Leakage of $CO_2$ to the marine environment can change the chemistry of seawater including the pH and carbonate composition and also influence adversely on the diverse living organisms in ecosystems. Recently, IMO (International Maritime Organization) have developed the risk assessment and management framework for the $CO_2$ sequestration in sub-seabed geological structures (CS-SSGS) and considered the sequestration as a waste management option to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. This framework for CS-SSGS aims to provide generic guidance to the Contracting Parties to the London Convention and Protocol, in order to characterize the risks to the marine environment from CS-SSGS on a site-specific basis and also to collect the necessary information to develop a management strategy to address uncertainties and any residual risks. The environmental risk assessment (ERA) plan for $CO_2$ storage work should include site selection and characterization, exposure assessment with probable leak scenario, risk assessment from direct and in-direct impact to the living organisms and risk management strategy. Domestic trial of the $CO_2$ capture and sequestration in to the marine geologic formation also should be accomplished through risk management with specified ERA approaches based on the IMO framework. The risk assessment procedure for $CO_2$ marine storage should contain the following components; 1) prediction of leakage probabilities with the reliable leakage scenarios from both engineered and geological part, 2) understanding on physio-chemical fate of $CO_2$ in marine environment especially for the candidate sites, 3) exposure assessment methods for various receptors in marine environments, 4) database production on the toxic effect of $CO_2$ to the ecologically and economically important species, and finally 5) development of surveillance procedures on the environmental changes with adequate monitoring techniques.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.53 no.2
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• pp.107-119
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• 2020

This study analyzed past drought characteristics based on the observed rainfall data and performed a long-term outlook for future extreme droughts using Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP 8.5) climate change scenarios. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) used duration of 1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months, a meteorological drought index, was applied for quantitative drought analysis. A single long-term time series was constructed by combining daily rainfall observation data and RCP scenario. The constructed data was used as SPI input factors for each different duration. For the analysis of meteorological drought observed relatively long-term since 1954 in Korea, 12 rainfall stations were selected and applied 10 general circulation models (GCM) at the same point. In order to analyze drought characteristics according to climate change, trend analysis and clustering were performed. For non-stationary frequency analysis using sampling technique, we adopted the technique DEMC that combines Bayesian-based differential evolution ("DE") and Markov chain Monte Carlo ("MCMC"). A non-stationary drought frequency analysis was used to derive Severity-Duration-Frequency (SDF) curves for the 12 locations. A quantitative outlook for future droughts was carried out by deriving SDF curves with long-term hydrologic data assuming non-stationarity, and by quantitatively identifying potential drought risks. As a result of performing cluster analysis to identify the spatial characteristics, it was analyzed that there is a high risk of drought in the future in Jeonju, Gwangju, Yeosun, Mokpo, and Chupyeongryeong except Jeju corresponding to Zone 1-2, 2, and 3-2. They could be efficiently utilized in future drought management policies.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.197-206
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• 2014

The purpose of this study is to evaluate coastal erosion due to a sea-level rise. The shoreline retreat rate was calculated due to future sea-level rise. Shoreline retreat rates were quantified with the cross-sectional data of 23 sandy coasts (12 sites from east coast, 5 sites from south coast, and 6 sites of west coast) and 3 cross-sectional profiles from each side of the coasts in Korea. The theory of equilibrium beach profile was employed in this study to evaluate the applicability of the theory into the coast of Korea and was tested with 15 cross-sectional beach profiles. Four scenarios of future sea level rise such as 38 cm, 59 cm, 75 cm, and 100 cm were adopted to estimate the shoreline retreat rates. Overall shoreline retreat rates for the coasts in Korea were predicted as 43.7% for 38 cm, 60.3% for 59 cm, 69.2% for 75 cm, and 80.1% for 100 cm sea level rises, respectively. Retreat rates in the east coast (29.6% for 38 cm, 45.1% for 59 cm, 56.0% for 75 cm, and 69.9% for 100 cm) showed relatively low compared to the south coast (51.9%, 67.6%, 77.2%, 87.3%) and the west coast (53.8%, 71.0%, 78.5%, 86.4%). However, all sandy coasts in Korea were assessed to be vulnerable with increasing sea-level rise. There are uncertainties in the assessment of this study, which include the limitation of the assessment model and the lack of the spatio-temporal data of the beach profiles. Therefore, this study shows that it is very important to spend integrated efforts to respond coastal erosion including comprehensive observations(monitoring) and the development of scientific understanding on the field.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.215-231
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• 2020

Forest landscape models (FLMs) can be used to investigate the complex interactions of various ecological processes and patterns, which makes them useful tools to evaluate how environmental and anthropogenic variables can influence forest ecosystems. However, due to the large spatio-temporal scales in FLMs studies, parameterization and validation can be extremely challenging when applying to new study areas. To address this issue, we focused on the parameterization and application of a spatially explicit forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, to Mt. Gyebang, South Korea, with the use of the National Forest Inventory (NFI) and long-term ecological research (LTER) site data. In this study, we present the followings for the biomass succession extension of LANDIS-II: 1) species-specific and spatial parameters estimation for the biomass succession extension of LANDIS-II, 2) calibration, and 3) application and validation for Mt. Gyebang. For the biomass succession extension, we selected 14 tree species, and parameterized ecoregion map, initial community map, species growth characteristics. We produced ecoregion map using elevation, aspect, and topographic wetness index based on digital elevation model. Initial community map was produced based on NFI and sub-alpine survey data. Tree species growth parameters, such as aboveground net primary production and maximum aboveground biomass, were estimated from PnET-II model based on species physiological factors and environmental variables. Literature data were used to estimate species physiological factors, such as FolN, SLWmax, HalfSat, growing temperature, and shade tolerance. For calibration and validation purposes, we compared species-specific aboveground biomass of model outputs and NFI and sub-alpine survey data and calculated coefficient of determination (R²) and root mean square error (RMSE). The final model performed very well, with 0. 98 R² and 8. 9 RMSE. This study can serve as a foundation for the use of FLMs to other applications such as comparing alternative forest management scenarios and natural disturbance effects.

• Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.312-319
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• 2021

This study was conducted to investigate the effect of elevated carbon dioxide on the growth and physiological responses of peach 'Mihong' (Prunus persica). We simulated three different carbon dioxide conditions based on climate change scenarios RCP 8.5 in the sunlight phytotron rooms from April 22 to July 6, 2020; 400 µmol·mol^-1(present condition), 700 µmol·mol^-1 treatment(expecting carbon dioxide concentrations in mid-21st century), 940 µmol·mol^-1 treatment (expecting carbon dioxide concentrations in late 21st century). The average of maximum photosynthesis rate at 700 µmol·mol^-1(16.06 µmol·CO₂·m^-2·s^-1) was higher than those at 400 µmol·mol^-1(14.45 µmol·CO₂·m^-2·s^-1) and 940 µmol·mol^-1(15.96 µmol·CO₂·m^-2·s^-1) from May 22 to July 2. However, stomatal conductances at 700 µmol·mol^-1 and 940 µmol·mol^-1 were lower than those at the control. Also, the carbon dioxide saturation point in all treatments was reduced from 1,200 µmol·mol^-1 in the early stage of growth to 600-800 µmol·mol^-1 in the late stage of growth. The stomatal densities were decreased as carbon dioxide increased. The shoot lengths were decreased while the carbon dioxide was increased, but the increase of trunk diameter and leaf areas, shoot numbers were not statistically different. The fruit weight at 700 µmol·mol^-1(152.5 g) was higher than those at the control(141.8 g) and 940 µmol·mol^-1(147.4 g). The soluble solids were higher at 700 µmol·mol^-1, 940 µmol·mol^-1 compared to the control. These results suggest that a carbon dioxide elevated to 700 µmol·mol^-1 in the future may give a positive effect on the yield and fruit quality of peach 'Mihong' while a carbon dioxide elevated above 940 µmol·mol^-1 may affect negatively such as early senescence and loss of fruit set.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.29 no.7
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• pp.802-811
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• 2023

Marine spatial planning (MSP) is a crucial element for rational allocation and sustainable use of marine areas. Particularly, Fishing Activity Protected Areas constitute essential zones accounting for 45.6% designated for sustainable fishing activities. However, the current assessment of these zones does not adequately consider future demands and potential values, necessitating appropriate evaluation methods and predictive tools for long-term planning. In this study, we selected key fish species (Scomber japonicus, Trichiurus lepturus, Engraulis japonicus, and Larimichthys polyactis) within the Fishing Activity Protected Area to predict their distribution and compare it with the current designated zones for evaluating the ability of the prediction tool. Employing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), we used species distribution models (such as MaxEnt) to assess the movement and distribution changes of these species owing to future variations. The results indicated a 30-50% increase in the distribution area of S. japonicus, T. lepturus, and L. polyactis, whereas the distribution area of E. japonicus decreased by approximately 6-11%. Based on these results, a species richness map for the four key species was created. Within the marine spatial planning boundaries, the overlap between areas rated "high" in species richness and the Fishing Activity Protected Area was approximately 15%, increasing to 21% under the RCP 2.6 scenario and 34% under the RCP 8.5 scenario. These findings can serve as scientific evidence for future evaluations of use zones or changes in reserve areas. The current and predicted distributions of species owing to climate change can address the limitations of current use zone evaluations and contribute to the development of plans for sustainable and beneficial use of marine resources.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.1-13
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• 2019

Recently, as the occurrence frequency of sudden floods due to climate change increased, it is necessary to install the facilities that can cope with the initial stormwater. Most researches have been conducted on the design of facilities applying the Low Impact Development (LID) and the reduction effect on rainfall runoff to examine with 1D or 2D numerical models. However, the studies on the examination about flow characteristics and stability of pipe network systems were relatively insufficient in the literature. In this study, the stability of the pipe network system in rainwater storage tank was examined by using 3D numerical model, FLOW-3D. The changes of velocity and dynamic pressure were examined according to the number of rainwater storage tank and compared with the design criteria to derive the optimal design plan for a rainwater storage tank. As a results of numerical simulation with the design values in the previous study, it was confirmed that the velocity became increased as the number of rainwater storage tank increased. And magnitude of the velocity in pipes was formed within the design criteria. However, the velocity in the additional rainwater storage pipe was about 3.44 m/s exceeding the allowable range of the design criteria, when three or more additional rainwater storage tanks were installed. In the case of turbulence intensity and bottom shear stress, the bottom shear stress was larger than the critical shear stress as the additional rainwater storage was increased. So, the deposition of sediment was unlikely to occur, but it should be considered that the floc was formed by the reduction of the turbulence intensity. In addition, the dynamic pressure was also satisfied with the design criteria when the results were compared with the allowable internal pressure of the pipes generally used in the design of rainwater storage tank. Based on these results, it was suitable to install up to two additional rainwater storage tanks because the drainage becomes well when increasing of the number of storage tank and the velocity in the pipe becomes faster to be vulnerable to damage the pipe. However, this study has a assumption about the specifications of the rainwater storage tanks and the inflow of stormwater and has a limitation such that deriving the suitable rainwater storage tank design by simply adding the storage tank. Therefore, the various storage tank types and stormwater inflow scenarios will be asked to derive more efficient design plans in the future.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.61-71
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• 2009

Most deciduous trees in temperate zone are dormant during the winter to overcome cold and dry environment. Dormancy of deciduous fruit trees is usually separated into a period of rest by physiological conditions and a period of quiescence by unfavorable environmental conditions. Inconsistent and fewer budburst in pear orchards has been reported recently in South Korea and Japan and the insufficient chilling due to warmer winters is suspected to play a role. An accurate prediction of the flowering time under the climate change scenarios may be critical to the planning of adaptation strategy for the pear industry in the future. However, existing methods for the prediction of budburst depend on the spring temperature, neglecting potential effects of warmer winters on the rest release and subsequent budburst. We adapted a dormancy clock model which uses daily temperature data to calculate the thermal time for simulating winter phenology of deciduous trees and tested the feasibility of this model in predicting budburst and flowering of Niitaka pear, one of the favorite cultivars in Korea. In order to derive the model parameter values suitable for Niitaka, the mean time for the rest release was estimated by observing budburst of field collected twigs in a controlled environment. The thermal time (in chill-days) was calculated and accumulated by a predefined temperature range from fall harvest until the chilling requirement (maximum accumulated chill-days in a negative number) is met. The chilling requirement is then offset by anti-chill days (in positive numbers) until the accumulated chill-days become null, which is assumed to be the budburst date. Calculations were repeated with arbitrary threshold temperatures from $4^{\circ}C$ to $10^{\circ}C$ (at an interval of 0.1), and a set of threshold temperature and chilling requirement was selected when the estimated budburst date coincides with the field observation. A heating requirement (in accumulation of anti-chill days since budburst) for flowering was also determined from an experiment based on historical observations. The dormancy clock model optimized with the selected parameter values was used to predict flowering of Niitaka pear grown in Suwon for the recent 9 years. The predicted dates for full bloom were within the range of the observed dates with 1.9 days of root mean square error.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.59-75
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• 2020

This study is a case study that applied 'UNDRR's Urban Disaster Resilience Scorecard', an evaluation tool necessary for Incheon Metropolitan City to be certified as an international safe city. I would like to present an example that the results derived from this scorecard contributed to the Incheon Metropolitan City Disaster Reduction Plan. Of course, the Disaster Resilience Scorecard can't provide a way to improve the resilience of every disaster facing the city. However, it is to find the weakness of the resilience that the city faces, and to propose a solution to reduce the city's disaster risk. This is to help practitioners to recognize the disaster risks that Incheon Metropolitan City faces. In addition, the solution recommended by UNDRR was suggested to provide resilience in areas vulnerable to disasters. It was confirmed that this process can contribute to improving the disaster resilience of Incheon Metropolitan City. UNDRR has been spreading 'Climate Change, Disaster-resistant City Creation Campaign', aka MCR (Making Cities Resilient) Campaign, to cities all over the world since 2010 to reduce global cities' disasters. By applying the disaster relief guidelines adopted by UNDRR, governments, local governments, and neighboring cities are encouraged to collaborate. As a result of this study, Incheon Metropolitan city's UN Urban Resilience Scorecard was evaluated as a strong resilience field by obtaining scores of 4 or more (4.3~5.0) in 5 of 10 essentials; 1. Prepare organization for disaster resilience and prepare for implementation, 4. Strong resilience Urban development and design pursuit, 5. Preservation of natural cushions to enhance the protection provided by natural ecosystems, 9. Ensure effective disaster preparedness and response, 10. Rapid restoration and better reconstruction. On the other hand, in the other five fields, scores of less than 4 (3.20~3.85) were obtained and evaluated as weak resilience field; 2. Analyze, understand and utilize current and future risk scenarios, 3. Strengthen financial capacity for resilience, 6. Strengthen institutional capacity for resilience, 7. Understanding and strengthening social competence for resilience, 8. Strengthen resilience of infrastructure. In addition, through this study, the risk factors faced by Incheon Metropolitan City could be identified by priority, resilience improvement measures to minimize disaster risks, urban safety-based urban development plans, available disaster reduction resources, and integrated disasters. Measures were prepared.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.53 no.9
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• pp.701-715
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• 2020

This study compared several reference evapotranspiration estimated using eight methods such as FAO-56 Penman-Monteith (FAO PM), Hamon, Hansen, Hargreaves-Samani, Jensen-Haise, Makkink, Priestley-Taylor, and Thornthwaite. In addition, by analyzing the monthly deviations of the results by the FAO PM and the remaining seven methods, monthly optimized correction coefficients were derived and the improvement effect was evaluated. These methods were applied to 73 automated synoptic observation system (ASOS) stations of the Korea Meteorological Administration, where the climatological data are available at least 20 years. As a result of evaluating the reference evapotranspiration by applying the default coefficients of each method, a large fluctuation happened depending on the method, and the Hansen method was relatively similar to FAO PM. However, the Hamon and Jensen-Haise methods showed more large values than other methods in summer, and the deviation from FAO PM method was also large significantly. When comparing based on the region, the comparison with FAO PM method provided that the reference evapotranspiration estimated by other methods was overestimated in most regions except for eastern coastal areas. Based on the deviation from the FAO PM method, the monthly correction coefficients were derived for each station. The monthly deviation average that ranged from -46 mm to +88 mm before correction was improved to -11 mm to +1 mm after correction, and the annual average deviation was also significantly reduced by correction from -393 mm to +354 mm (before correction) to -33 mm to +9 mm (after correction). In particular, Hamon, Hargreaves-Samani, and Thornthwaite methods using only temperature data also produced results that were not significantly different from FAO PM after correction. It can be also useful for forecasting long-term reference evapotranspiration using temperature data in climate change scenarios or predicting evapotranspiration using monthly or seasonal temperature forecasted values.