• Title/Summary/Keyword: Climate prediction systems

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Development and Verification of NEMO based Regional Storm Surge Forecasting System (NEMO 모델을 이용한 지역 폭풍해일예측시스템 개발 및 검증)

  • La, Nary;An, Byoung Woong;Kang, KiRyong;Chang, Pil-Hun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.373-383
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    • 2020
  • In this study we established an operational storm-surge system for the northwestern pacific ocean, based on the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean). The system consists of the tide and the surge models. For more accurate storm surge prediction, it can be completed not only by applying more precise depth data, but also by optimal parameterization at the boundaries of the atmosphere and ocean. To this end, we conducted several sensitivity experiments related to the application of available bathymetry data, ocean bottom friction coefficient, and wind stress and air pressure on the ocean surface during August~September 2018 and the case of typhoon SOULIK. The results of comparison and verification are presented here, and they are compared with POM (Princeton Ocean Model) based Regional Tide Surge forecasting Model (RTSM). The results showed that the RTSM_NEMO model had a 29% and 20% decrease in Bias and RMSE respectively compared to the RTSM_POM model, and that the RTSM_NEMO model had a lower overall error than the RTSM_POM model for the case of typhoon SOULIK.

A Study on the System Improvement for Efficient Management of Large-scale Complex Disaster (대형복합재난의 효율적 관리를 위한 제도개선방안 연구)

  • Kim, Taehoon;Youn, Junhee
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.176-183
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    • 2018
  • Climate change, rapid urbanization, and population concentration have led to a higher frequency and magnitude of disasters in the world. Recently, the occurrence of large-scale complex disasters, which are caused by a combination of natural disasters, man-made disasters, and social disasters, is increasing. In Korea, there are many case studies of damage prediction and response technology development for individual natural disasters, such as earthquakes, floods, and typhoons. On the other hand, the system basis for the efficient response and management of large-scale complex disasters is insufficient. Therefore, this study examined the representative cases of natural, social disasters, and related cases of domestic disaster response management systems. In addition, this paper proposes ways to improve the legal system for complex disaster management policies and establish a cooperation system between the ministries for an efficient response.

An Evaluation and Prediction of Performance of Road Snow-melting System Utilized by Ground Source Heat Pump (지열원히트펌프를 활용한 도로융설시스템의 성능 평가 및 예측)

  • Choi, Deok-In;Hwang, Kwang-Il
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.138-145
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    • 2012
  • Because of the climate changes and the development of building technologies, the cooling loads have been increased. Among the various renewable energies, geothermal energy is known as very useful and stable energy for heating and cooling of building. This study proposes a road snow-melting system of which heat is supplied from GSHP(Ground source heat pump) in viewpoint of the initial investment and annual running performance, which is also operating as a main facility of heating and cooling for common spaces. The results of this study is as followings. From the site measurement, it is found out that the road surface temperature above the geothermal heating pipe rose up to $5^{\circ}C$, which is the design temperature of road snow-melting, after 2 hours' operation and average COP(Coefficient of performance) was estimated as 3.5. The reliability of CFD has confirmed, because the temperature difference between results of CFD analysis and site measurement is only ${\pm}0.4^{\circ}C$ and the trend of temperature variation is quite similar. CFD analysis on the effect of pavement materials clearly show that more than 2 hours is needed for snow-melting, if the road is paved by ascon or concrete. But the road paved by brick is not reached to $5^{\circ}C$ at all. To evaluate the feasibility of snow-melting system operated by a geothermal circulation which has not GSHP, the surface temperature of concrete-paved road rise up to $0^{\circ}C$ after 2 hour and 40 minutes, and it does never increase to $5^{\circ}C$. And the roads paved by ascon and brick is maintained as below $0^{\circ}C$ after 12 hours geothermal circulation.

A Probability Mapping for Land Cover Change Prediction using CLUE Model (토지피복변화 예측을 위한 CLUE 모델의 확률지도 생성)

  • Oh, Yun-Gyeong;Choi, Jin-Yong;Bae, Seung-Jong;Yoo, Seung-Hwan;Lee, Sang-Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.47-55
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    • 2010
  • Land cover and land use change data are important in many studies including climate change and hydrological studies. Although the various theories and models have been developed, it is difficult to identify the driving factors of the land use change because land use change is related to policy options and natural and socio-economic conditions. This study is to attempt to simulate the land cover change using the CLUE model based on a statistical analysis of land-use change. CLUE model has dynamic modeling tools from the competition among land use change in between driving force and land use, so that this model depends on statistical relations between land use change and driving factors. In this study, Yongin, Icheon and Anseong were selected for the study areas, and binary logistic regression and factor analysis were performed verifying with ROC curve. Land cover probability map was also prepared to compare with the land cover data and higher probability areas are well matched with the present land cover demonstrating CLUE model applicability.

Effect of Hydrogen on Stainless Steel and Structural Steel Using Electrochemical Charging Facility (전기화학적 장입 설비를 활용한 스테인리스강 및 구조용강의 수소 영향 분석)

  • Ki-Young Sung;Jeong-Hyeon Kim;Jung-Hee Lee;Jung-Won Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Industry Convergence
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    • v.26 no.4_2
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    • pp.705-713
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    • 2023
  • The phenomenon of abnormal climate conditions resulting from greenhouse gas-induced global warming is increasingly prevalent. To address this challenge, global initiatives are underway to adopt environmentally friendly, zero-emission fuels. In this study, we investigate the hydrogen embrittlement characteristics of materials used for eco-friendly hydrogen storage systems. The effects of hydrogen embrittlement on austenitic stainless steels of the FCC series and structural steel of the BCC series were examined. Initially, test samples of three different steel types were prepared in 2t and 3t sizes, and hydrogen was injected into the specimens using an electrochemical method over a 24-hour period. Subsequently, a universal material testing machine (UTM) was employed to monitor changes in mechanical strength and elongation. The FCC series stainless steels exhibited a tendency for elongation to decrease, indicating low sensitivity to hydrogen. In contrast, the mechanical strength and elongation of the BCC series steel changed significantly upon hydrogen charging, posing challenges for prediction. The results of the present study are expected to serve as a fundamental database for analyzing the impact of hydrogen embrittlement on both FCC and BCC series steel materials.

Design of Rural Business Model to Prevent Reservoir Flood (저수지 침수 피해 예방을 위한 농촌 맞춤형 비즈니스 모델 설계)

  • Jo, Yerim;Lee, Jonghyuk;Seo, Byunghun;Kim, Dongsu;Seo, Yejin;Kim, Dongwoo;Choi, Won
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.9-17
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    • 2024
  • Agricultural reservoirs play a crucial role in rural areas, providing essential water resources for agriculture. However, collapses or overfilling of reservoirs can lead to significant damages to both property and lives. Unfortunately, the safety of agricultural reservoirs is often uncertain due to aging infrastructure and lack of comprehensive safety management systems. Additionally, the escalating severity of climate change exacerbates these risks, because of extreme weather events. This study proposes a business model for a flood damage management platform tailored to rural areas to predict downstream flooding caused by agricultural reservoirs and to integrate comprehensive reservoir safety management. It aims to predict more accurate downstream flood damage using improved methods based on previous studies. The proposed business model presents strategies for providing improved downstream flood damage prediction services, and identifies potential customers and service supply strategies for the flood damage management platform. Finally, it presents an economic analysis of the proposed business model and strategies for further revenue generation.

Closed Static Chamber Methods for Measurement of Methane Fluxes from a Rice Paddy: A Review (벼논 메탄 플럭스 측정용 폐쇄형 정적 챔버법: 고찰)

  • Ju, Okjung;Kang, Namgoo;Lim, Gapjune
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.79-91
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    • 2020
  • Accurate assessment of greenhouse gas emissions is a cornerstone of every climate change response study, and reliable assessment of greenhouse gas emission data is being used as a practical basis for the entire climate change prediction and modeling studies. Essential, fundamental technologies for estimating greenhouse gas emissions include an on-site monitoring technology, an evaluation methodology of uncertainty in emission factors, and a verification technology for reductions. The closed chamber method is being commonly used to measure gas fluxes between soil-vegetation and atmosphere. This method has the advantages of being simple, easily available and economical. This study presented the technical bases of the closed chamber method for measuring methane fluxes from a rice paddy. The methane fluxes from rice paddies occupy the largest portion of a single source of greenhouse gas in the agricultural field. We reviewed the international and the domestic studies on automated chamber monitoring systems that have been developed from manually operated chambers. Based on this review, we discussed scientific concerns on chamber methods with a particular focus on quality control for improving measurement reliability of field data.

Geographical Migration of Winter Barley in the Korean Peninsula under the RCP8.5 Projected Climate Condition (신 기후변화시나리오에 따른 한반도 내 겨울보리 재배적지 이동)

  • Kim, Dae-Jun;Kim, Jin-Hee;Roh, Jae-Hwan;Yun, Jin I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.161-169
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    • 2012
  • The RCP 8.5 scenario based temperature outlook (12.5 km resolution) was combined with high-definition gridded temperature maps (30 m grid spacing) across the Korean Peninsula in order to reclassify the cold hardiness zone for winter barley, a promising grain crop in the future under warmer winter conditions. Reference maps for the January minimum and mean temperature were prepared by applying the watershed-specific geospatial climate prediction schemes to the synoptic observations from 1981 to 2010 across North and South Korea. Decadal changes in the January minimum and mean temperatures projected by a regional version of RCP8.5 climate change scenario were prepared for the 2011-2100 period at 12.5 km grid spacing and were subsequently added to the reference maps, producing the 30 m resolution temperature surfaces for 9 decades from 2011 to 2100. A criterion for threshold temperature to grow winter barley safely in Korea was applied to the future temperature surfaces and the resulting maps were used to predict the production potential of 3 cultivar groups for the 9 future decades under the projected temperature conditions. By 2020s, hulled barley cultivars could be grown safely at the southern part of North Korea as well as the mountainous Gangwon province. Furthermore, most of South Korean rice paddies will be safe for growing naked barley after harvesting rice. Also, dual cropping systems such as 'winter-barley after rice' could be possible at most of the North Korean rice paddies by 2040s. Additional grain production in North Korea could increase up to 4 million tons per year if dual cropping systems can be fully operated, i.e., winter barley after rice at all lowlands and winter barley after maize or potato at all uplands.

Evaluating the Predictability of Heat and Cold Damages of Soybean in South Korea using PNU CGCM -WRF Chain (PNU CGCM-WRF Chain을 이용한 우리나라 콩의 고온해 및 저온해에 대한 예측성 검증)

  • Myeong-Ju, Choi;Joong-Bae, Ahn;Young-Hyun, Kim;Min-Kyung, Jung;Kyo-Moon, Shim;Jina, Hur;Sera, Jo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.218-233
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    • 2022
  • The long-term (1986~2020) predictability of the number of days of heat and cold damages for each growth stage of soybean is evaluated using the daily maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin) data produced by Pusan National University Coupled General Circulation Model (PNU CGCM)-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). The Predictability evaluation methods for the number of days of damages are Normalized Standard Deviations (NSD), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Hit Rate (HR), and Heidke Skill Score (HSS). First, we verified the simulation performance of the Tmax and Tmin, which are the variables that define the heat and cold damages of soybean. As a result, although there are some differences depending on the month starting with initial conditions from January (01RUN) to May (05RUN), the result after a systematic bias correction by the Variance Scaling method is similar to the observation compared to the bias-uncorrected one. The simulation performance for correction Tmax and Tmin from March to October is overall high in the results (ENS) averaged by applying the Simple Composite Method (SCM) from 01RUN to 05RUN. In addition, the model well simulates the regional patterns and characteristics of the number of days of heat and cold damages by according to the growth stages of soybean, compared with observations. In ENS, HR and HSS for heat damage (cold damage) of soybean have ranged from 0.45~0.75, 0.02~0.10 (0.49~0.76, -0.04~0.11) during each growth stage. In conclusion, 01RUN~05RUN and ENS of PNU CGCM-WRF Chain have the reasonable performance to predict heat and cold damages for each growth stage of soybean in South Korea.

Evaluation of the DCT-PLS Method for Spatial Gap Filling of Gridded Data (격자자료 결측복원을 위한 DCT-PLS 기법의 활용성 평가)

  • Youn, Youjeong;Kim, Seoyeon;Jeong, Yemin;Cho, Subin;Lee, Yangwon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.36 no.6_1
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    • pp.1407-1419
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    • 2020
  • Long time-series gridded data is crucial for the analyses of Earth environmental changes. Climate reanalysis and satellite images are now used as global-scale periodical and quantitative information for the atmosphere and land surface. This paper examines the feasibility of DCT-PLS (penalized least square regression based on discrete cosine transform) for the spatial gap filling of gridded data through the experiments for multiple variables. Because gap-free data is required for an objective comparison of original with gap-filled data, we used LDAPS (Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System) daily data and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) monthly products. In the experiments for relative humidity, wind speed, LST (land surface temperature), and NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index), we made sure that randomly generated gaps were retrieved very similar to the original data. The correlation coefficients were over 0.95 for the four variables. Because the DCT-PLS method does not require ancillary data and can refer to both spatial and temporal information with a fast computation, it can be applied to operative systems for satellite data processing.