• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.1-22
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• 2019

This study aims at deriving the implications for adaptation policy and research target regarding climate change risk assessment in ecosystem sector in Korea. The common ground of exemplary cases of "world leaders" in terms of adaptation policies and researches was that they emphasize nationwide study on climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem in target of establishing scientific evidence-bases and reducing uncertainty for their national adaptation policies and plans. In light of this trend, Korean government should settle down more successful adaptation structure by leading adaptation system in further national policy-settings to observe UNFCCC and CBD integratedly and effectively, considering the economic value of adaptation in policy, and strengthening scientific research programs and technology developments. Moreover, risks assessment based on diagnoses and analysis on the risk factors (hazard, exposure, and vulnerability) for climate change in nationwide habitats and species and consolidations with subsequent adaptation strategies could make adaptations in ecosystem sector more effective and successful.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2012.05a
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• pp.467-467
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• 2012

As the features of recent flood are spatially concentrated, loss of life and property increase by the impact of climate change. In addition to this the public interest in water control information is increased and socially reasonable justification of water control policy is needed. It is necessary to estimate the flood risk in order to let people know the status of flood control and establish flood control policy. For accurate flood risk analysis, we should consider inter-relation between causal factors of flood damage. Hence, flood risk analysis should be applied to interdependence of the factors selected. The Bayesian networks are ideally suited to assist decision-making in situations where there is uncertainty in the data and where the variables are highly interlinked. In this research, to provide more proper water control information the flood risk analysis is performed using the Bayesian networks to handle uncertainty and dependency among 13 specific proxy variables.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.59-73
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• 2010

One of the most important issues for projecting future water resources and establishing climate change adaptation strategies is 'uncertainty'. In Korea, climate change research results were very heterogeneous even in a same basin, but there have been few climate change studies dealt with the uncertainty reduction. This is because emission scenarios, GCMs, downscaling, and rainfall-runoff models that were used in the previous studies were almost all different. In this research, fifty one GCM scenarios based A and B emission scenarios were downloaded and then compared with the observed values for a period from January 2001 to December 2008. The downloaded GCM scenarios in general simulated well the observed but did not simulated well the observed precipitation especially for the flood season in Korea. The accuracy of each GCM scenario was measured with the model efficiency, PDF-based, and Relative Entropy methodology. Among the selected GCM scenarios with three methodologies, the four common GCM scenarios(CGCM2.3.2(MRI-M, B1), MIROC3.2medress(NIES, B1), CGCM2.3.2(MRI-M, A2), CGCM2.3.2(MRI-M, A1B) were finally selected. Results of the four selected GCMs were heterogeneity and projected increases of precipitation for the Korean Peninsula by from 27.36% to 12.49%, respectively. It seems very risky to rely a water planning or a management policy on use of a single climate change scenario and from this research results. Therefore, the four selected GCM scenarios proposed quantitatively were considered firstly for the water supply in the dry season and the drought management strategy in the Korean Peninsula for the future.

• New & Renewable Energy
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.145-174
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• 2024

Addressing climate change necessitates evidence-based policies grounded in science. The use of forest biomass for energy production is based on a broad scientific consensus at the international level. However, some environmental groups in South Korea are opposing this system of energy production. Through this study, the authors aim to reduce unnecessary confusion and foster an atmosphere conducive to meaningful evidence-based policies. We have classified the issue into eight categories: biological carbon cycle, carbon debt, nature-based solutions, air emissions, cascading principles and sustainability certification, forest environmental impacts, climate change litigation, and the behavior of environmental groups and public perception. Consequently, the following key points were derived: (1) the actions of some environmental groups seem to follow a similar pattern to denialist behavior that denies climate change and climate science; (2) the quality of evidence for campaigns that oppose the use of forest biomass for energy production is low, with a tendency to overgeneralize information, high uncertainty, and difficulty in finding new claims.; (3) most of the public believes that forest biomass energy is necessary, and the governments of major countries are aware of its importance. Significantly, Forest biomass for energy is based on an overwhelming level of scientific consensus recognized internationally.

• Atmosphere
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.1-15
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• 2022

Recently, Japan's Meteorological Research Institute presented the d4PDF database (Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change, d4PDF) through large-scale climate ensemble simulations to overcome uncertainty arising from variability when the general circulation model represents extreme-scale precipitation. In this study, the change of precipitation characteristics between the historical and future climate conditions in the Yongdam-dam basin was analyzed using the d4PDF data. The result shows that annual mean precipitation and seasonal mean precipitation increased by more than 10% in future climate conditions. This study also performed an analysis on the change of the return period rainfall. The annual maximum daily rainfall was extracted for each climatic condition, and the rainfall with each return period was estimated. In this process, we represent the extreme-scale rainfall corresponding to a very long return period without any statistical model and method as the d4PDF provides rainfall data during 3,000 years for historical climate conditions and during 5,400 years for future climate conditions. The rainfall with a 50-year return period under future climate conditions exceeded the rainfall with a 100-year return period under historical climate conditions. Consequently, in future climate conditions, the magnitude of rainfall increased at the same return period and, the return period decreased at the same magnitude of rainfall. In this study, by using the d4PDF data, it was possible to analyze the change in extreme magnitude of rainfall.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.239-247
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• 2011

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the corresponding national low-carbon policy should be grounded on the scientific understanding of climate sensitivity to the increase in CO2 concentration. This is, however, precluded by the fact that current estimates of the climate sensitivity highly vary. To understand the scientific background, limitations, and prospects of the climate sensitivity study, this paper reviews, as objectively as possible, the most recent results on the sensitivity issue. Theoretically, the climate sensitivity hinges on climate feedbacks from various atmospheric and surface physical processes. Especially cloud and sea-ice processes associated with shortwave radiation are known to have largest uncertainty, resulting in an inaccurate estimation of climate sensitivity. For this reason, recent observational studies using satellite data suggest sensitivity lower than or similar to those estimated by climate models (2-5 K per doubled CO2).

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.355-379
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• 2007

With the effectuation of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) and Kyoto Protocol in 2005, ever growing concern on the importance of overseas forestation is diffusing worldwide. However, fierce international competition to secure overseas forestation sites, inherent uncertainty in UNFCCC or overseas forestation projects, and imbalances among policies on overseas natural resources development make it difficult to realize Korean long-term overseas forestation objective to secure 1 million ha by 2050. In view of necessity of overseas forestation projects for sustainable forest management and securing sinks of carbon to mitigate climate change, various efforts to reform current Korean overseas forestation systems are required. This study suggests several alternatives to improve current Korean overseas forestation systems including expanding financial support for overseas forestation projects, cultivating overseas forestation experts, establishing official organization for overseas forestation, constructing effective support system for overseas forestation projects, fostering international cooperation in the field of forest resources, and so on. Many theoretical, empirical or policy-oriented studies on the influences of UNFCCC and countermeasures on it in various Korean industries should follow this study.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.23-31
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• 2000

Many studies in marketing and economics have attempted to model price and sales path under the dynamic diffusion process. Most of these models have been based on a fixed product lifetime. The current business climate requiring intensive development of new products however affects the diffusion of new products and their lifetime. Many products have not enjoyed the expected life cycle at the launching stage due to intense technical development competitive reactions, and financial problems. Most diffusion models however have not taken account of the lifetime uncertainty of new product. If the products do not last over the planning horizon set by those models. the optimal price derived from them could be futile. Therefore we had better take such lifetime uncertainty into consideration when developing diffusion models, In this paper we study the impact of uncertain product lifetime on its optimal pricing path in non-competitive market. We develop an optimal pricing model under uncertain product lifetimes and conduct a simulation study to investigate their effects on the optimal pricing and corresponding sales paths. The simulation study provides some interesting findings on optimal pricing policy under uncertain product lifetime. This study could be a stepping stone for the further extended study of optimal pricing strategy with uncertain product lifetime.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
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• v.5 no.3
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• pp.57-78
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• 2006

Now post 2012 greenhouse gas reduction commitment being discussed, studies about long-term GHG reduction scenarios toward 2050 have actively been worked separately from 5 years short-term approach. In this paper, background, temperature target, $CO_2$ concentration target, national emission target, and approach of long-term reduction scenarios toward 2050 particularly in European countries such as UK, Germany, France, Netherlands et al. are reviewed. After comparing GDP and emission indices between Developed (European) countries and Korea, some implications of long-term GHG reduction scenarios are deduced. Acting early owing to uncertainty in climate change impact and technology development rather than delaying reduction activity owing to scientific uncertainty in climate change is needed. Providing our society's vision of climate change and government's explicit direction through long-term GHG reduction target setting toward 2050 and economic units' preparing for those are needed.