• 제목/요약/키워드: Climate effect

검색결과 1,618건 처리시간 0.032초

Prediction of sediment flow to Pleikrong reservoir due to the impact of climate change

  • Xuan Khanh Do;ThuNgaLe;ThuHienNguyen
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2023년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.38-38
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    • 2023
  • Pleikrong reservoir with a concrete gravity dam that impound more than 1 billion cubic meter storage volume is one of the largest reservoir in Central Highland of Vietnam. Sedimentation is a major problem in this area and it becomes more severe due to the effect of climate change. Over time, it gradually reduces the reservoir storage capacity affecting to the reliability of water and power supply. This study aims to integrate the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model with 14 bias-corrected GCM/RCM models under two emissions scenarios, representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 to estimate sediment inflow to Pleikrong reservoir in the long term period. The result indicated that the simulated total amount of sediment deposited in the reservoir from 2010 to 2018 was approximately 39 mil m3 which is a 17% underestimate compared with the observed value of 47 mil m3. The results also show the reduction in reservoir storage capacity due to sedimentation ranges from 25% to 62% by 2050, depending on the different climate change models. The reservoir reduced storage volume's rate in considering the impact of climate change is much faster than in the case of no climate change. The outcomes of this study will be helpful for a sustainable and climate-resilient plan of sediment management for the Pleikrongreservoir.

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A Strategy of Assessing Climate Factors' Influence for Agriculture Output

  • Kuan, Chin-Hung;Leu, Yungho;Lee, Chien-Pang
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • 제16권5호
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    • pp.1414-1430
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    • 2022
  • Due to the Internet of Things popularity, many agricultural data are collected by sensors automatically. The abundance of agricultural data makes precise prediction of rice yield possible. Because the climate factors have an essential effect on the rice yield, we considered the climate factors in the prediction model. Accordingly, this paper proposes a machine learning model for rice yield prediction in Taiwan, including the genetic algorithm and support vector regression model. The dataset of this study includes the meteorological data from the Central Weather Bureau and rice yield of Taiwan from 2003 to 2019. The experimental results show the performance of the proposed model is nearly 30% better than MARS, RF, ANN, and SVR models. The most important climate factors affecting the rice yield are the total sunshine hours, the number of rainfall days, and the temperature.The proposed model also offers three advantages: (a) the proposed model can be used in different geographical regions with high prediction accuracies; (b) the proposed model has a high explanatory ability because it could select the important climate factors which affect rice yield; (c) the proposed model is more suitable for predicting rice yield because it provides higher reliability and stability for predicting. The proposed model can assist the government in making sustainable agricultural policies.

생산함수를 이용한 농업용수 관개량과 벼 생산성간 관계 평가 (Relationship Assessment on Amount of Irrigation Water & Productivity of Rice by Production Function)

  • 허승오;최순군;엽소진;홍성창;최동호
    • 한국환경농학회지
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    • 제38권3호
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    • pp.133-138
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    • 2019
  • BACKGROUND: Production function gives the equation that shows the relationship between the quantities of productive factors used and the amount of product obtained, and can answer a variety of questions. This study was carried out to evaluate the relationship between irrigation water used for rice production and rice productivity by the production function which shows the mathematical relation between input and output. METHODS AND RESULTS: The statistical data on rice production and on the amount of irrigation water were used for the production function analysis. The analysis period was separated for 1966-1981 and 1982-2011, based on goal's change on agriculture from 'increasing food' to 'complex farming'. The relation between irrigation and yield considering production function is a short-term production function both before and after 1982. These results can be expressed by the sigmoid relation. When comparing the graphs of the two analyzed periods, there are differences in quantity between the maximum point and the minimum point during the same analysis period, which can be called an 'Irrigation Effect' by the difference of irrigation, and 'Technical Effect' by the difference by inputs like as fertilizers etc. CONCLUSION: The results could be useful as information for assessing the relationship between agricultural water and the productivity of rice and predicting rice productivity by irrigation water in Korea.

리더의 자기기만 행동이 팀학습에 미치는 영향: 심리적 안전감과 침묵풍토의 매개효과를 중심으로 (The Effect of Leader's Self-Deception Behavior on Team Learning: Mediating Effect of Psychological Safety and Silent Climate)

  • 서강석;정승철
    • 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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    • 제21권3호
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    • pp.478-489
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    • 2021
  • 본 연구는 팀 리더의 자기기만 행동이 팀 학습에 영향을 미치는 과정에서 심리적 안전감과 침묵풍토의 이중 매개 효과를 확인하고자 하였다. 이를 위하여 국내 일반기업에서 근무하는 직원 294명을 대상으로 설문조사를 실시하였으며, SPSS 21과 Process Macro v.3.3을 활용하여 자료 분석을 하였다. 연구 결과는 다음과 같다. 우선, 팀 리더의 자기기만 행동은 팀원들의 심리적 안전감과 부적 상관, 침묵풍토와 정적 상관, 팀 학습과 부적 상관이 있는 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 팀 리더의 자기기만 행동이 팀 학습에 영향을 미치는 관계에서 심리적 안전감과 침묵풍토가 각각 매개변인의 역할을 하는 것으로 나타났으며, 이들 심리적 안전감과 침묵풍토가 순차적으로 매개역할을 하는 이중매개효과 또한 확인되었다. 본 연구는 조직의 팀 성과 향상을 위해서 팀 리더의 진정성의 관리가 중요하다는 실무적인 의의가 있으며, 마지막으로 본 연구와 관련된 시사점 및 제한점이 결론 및 논의에서 다루어졌다.

정보보안 심리적 권한이 업무 스트레스를 통해 정책 저항 완화에 미치는 영향: 공정성 분위기의 조절 효과 (The Effect on the IS Psychological Empowerment on the Mitigation of IS Policy Resistance Through IS Role Stress: Focusing on the Moderation of IS Justice Climate)

  • 황인호
    • 한국전자통신학회논문지
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    • 제17권1호
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2022
  • 내부자의 정보 노출 사고가 지속해서 발생하면서, 조직 내부의 정보보안 강화에 대한 요구가 높아지고 있다. 그러나 엄격한 정보보안 정책 및 규칙이 조직원에게 적용될 때 정보보안 스트레스와 저항 행동으로 나타날 수 있다. 본 연구는 내부자의 정보보안 정책의 부정적 행동 원인과 완화 요인을 제시하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 특히, 개인(심리적 권한) 및 조직(공정성 분위기) 요인이 어떻게 상호 영향을 주어 부정적 행동을 완화하는지를 확인하고자 하였다. 연구는 정보보안 정책을 내부자에게 반영하는 조직의 근로자에게 설문하여 표본을 확보했으며, 구조방정식모델링으로 가설검증을 하였다. 분석 결과, 정보보안 관련 심리적 권한이 정책 저항에 미치는 영향을 업무 스트레스가 부분 매개 효과를 가졌으며, 공정성 분위기가 심리적 권한의 영향을 강화하였다. 연구 결과는 내부자의 정보보안 정책 저항 감소를 위한 방향성을 제시하였으므로, 조직 내부의 보안 목표 달성을 위한 전략 수립에 도움을 준다.

중대재해처벌법 시행 이후 작업장의 조직풍토가 근로자의 안전의식 수준에 미치는 영향 - 건설현장 근로자를 중심으로 - (A Study of the Effect of Organizational Climate on Workers' Safety Consciousness after the Enforcement of the Act on the Punishment of Severe Disasters - Focusing on Construction Site Workers -)

  • 이재윤;김동현
    • 한국건설관리학회논문집
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    • 제25권1호
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    • pp.13-22
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    • 2024
  • 2021년 1월 8일, 「중대재해처벌 등에 관한 법률」이 법사위를 통과하고 2022년 1월부터 본격적으로 시행되고 있다. 하지만 여전히 건설현장에서의 안전사고는 끊이지 않고 있으며, 이에 건설현장 근로자들의 안전의식을 향상시킬 수 있는 방안을 논의할 필요성이 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 건설현장 근로자들을 대상으로 한 설문조사를 통해 자료를 수집하고, 작업장의 조직풍토가 근로자들의 안전의식 수준에 미치는 영향을 연구하였다. 연구결과, 작업장의 조직풍토 중 조직의 구조성, 자율성 보장과 감독자의 배려 요인이 근로자의 안전의식 향상에 정적 영향을 미치고 있었다. 이를 토대로 본 연구자는 현장작업 진행시에 작업의 상황, 내용 등에 따라 일부 작업수행에 대한 권한을 근로자에게 위임하며, 성과에 따른 인센티브 보상제를 겸비할 것 등의 제언을 제시하였다.

Research Trends in Agenda-setting for Climate Change Adaptation Policy in the Public Health Sector in Korea

  • Chae, Su-Mi;Kim, Daeeun
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제53권1호
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    • pp.3-14
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    • 2020
  • Many studies have been conducted to assess the health effects of climate change in Korea. However, there has been a lack of consideration regarding how the results of these studies can be applied to relevant policies. The current study aims to examine research trends at the agenda-setting stage and to review future ways in which health-related adaptation to climate change can be addressed within national public health policy. A systematic review of previous studies of the health effects of climate change in Korea was conducted. Many studies have evaluated the effect of ambient temperature on health. A large number of studies have examined the effects on deaths and cardio-cerebrovascular diseases, but a limitation of these studies is that it is difficult to apply their findings to climate change adaptation policy in the health sector. Many infectious disease studies were also identified, but these mainly focused on malaria. Regarding climate change-related factors other than ambient temperature, studies of the health effects of these factors (with the exception of air pollution) are limited. In Korea, it can be concluded that studies conducted as part of the agenda-setting stage are insufficient, both because studies on the health effects of climate change have not ventured beyond defining the problem and because health adaptation to climate change has not been set as an important agenda item. In the future, the sharing and development of relevant databases is necessary. In addition, the priority of agenda items should be determined as part of a government initiative.

기후변화와 인수공통전염병 관리 (The Climate Change and Zoonosis (Zoonotic Disease Prevention and Control))

  • 정석찬
    • 한국환경농학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국환경농학회 2009년도 정기총회 및 국제심포지엄
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    • pp.228-239
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    • 2009
  • The observations on climate change show a clear increase in the temperature of the Earth's surface and the oceans, a reduction in the land snow cover, and melting of the sea ice and glaciers. The effects of climate change are likely to include more variable weather, heat waves, increased mean temperature, rains, flooding and droughts. The threat of climate change and global warming on human and animal health is now recognized as a global issue. This presentation is described an overview of the latest scientific knowledge on the impact of climate change on zoonotic diseases. Climate strongly affects agriculture and livestock production and influences animal diseases, vectors and pathogens, and their habitat. Global warming are likely to change the temporal and geographical distribution of infectious diseases, including those that are vector-borne such as West Nile fever, Rift Valley fever, Japanese encephalitis, bluetongue, malaria and visceral leishmaniasis, and other diarrheal diseases. The distribution and prevalence of vector-borne diseases may be the most significant effect of climate change. The impact of climate change on the emergence and re-emergence of animal diseases has been confirmed by a majority of countries. Emerging zoonotic diseases are increasingly recognized as a global and regional issue with potential serious human health and economic impacts and their current upward trends are likely to continue. Coordinated international responses are therefore essential across veterinary and human health sectors, regions and countries to control and prevent emerging zoonoses. A new early warning and alert systems is developing and introducing for enhancing surveillance and response to zoonotic diseases. And international networks that include public health, research, medical and veterinary laboratories working with zoonotic pathogens should be established and strengthened. Facing this challenging future, the long-term strategies for zoonotic diseases that may be affected by climate change is need for better prevention and control measures in susceptible livestock, wildlife and vectors in Korea. In conclusion, strengthening global, regional and national early warning systems is extremely important, as are coordinated research programmes and subsequent prevention and control measures, and need for the global surveillance network essential for early detection of zoonotic diseases.

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불확실성을 고려한 논벼 증발산량 기후변화 영향 평가 (Assessing the Climate Change Impacts on Paddy Rice Evapotranspiration Considering Uncertainty)

  • 최순군;정재학;조재필;허승오;최동호;김민경
    • 한국기후변화학회지
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    • 제9권2호
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    • pp.143-156
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    • 2018
  • Evapotranspiration is a key element in designing and operating agricultural hydraulic structures. The profound effect of climate change to local agro-hydrological systems makes it inevitable to study the potential variability in evapotranspiration rate in order to develop policies on future agricultural water management as well as to evaluate changes in agricultural environment. The APEX-Paddy model was used to simulate local evapotranspiration responses to climate change scenarios. Nine Global Climate Models(GCMs) downscaled using a non-parametric quantile mapping method and a Multi?Model Ensemble method(MME) were used for an uncertainty analysis in the climate scenarios. Results indicate that APEX-Paddy and the downscaled 9 GCMs reproduce evapotranspiration accurately for historical period(1976~2005). For future periods, simulated evapotranspiration rate under the RCP 4.5 scenario showed increasing trends by -1.31%, 2.21% and 4.32% for 2025s(2011~2040), 2055s(2041~2070) and 2085s(2071~2100), respectively, compared with historical(441.6 mm). Similar trends were found under the RCP 8.5 scenario with the rates of increase by 0.00%, 4.67%, and 7.41% for the near?term, mid?term, and long?term periods. Monthly evapotranspiration was predicted to be the highest in August, July was the month having a strong upward trend while. September and October were the months showing downward trends in evapotranspiration are mainly resulted from the shortening of the growth period of paddy rice due to temperature increase and stomatal closer as ambient $CO_2$ concentration increases in the future.

A1B 기후변화시나리오에 따른 미래 겉보리 잠재생산성 변화 예측 (Assessing Impacts of Temperature and Carbon Dioxide Based on A1B Climate Change Scenario on Potential Yield of Winter Covered Barley in Korea)

  • 심교문;이덕배;민성현;김건엽;정현철;이슬비;강기경
    • 한국기후변화학회지
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    • 제2권4호
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    • pp.317-331
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    • 2011
  • 보리 생육모형인 DSSAT의 CERES-Barley를 적용하여, 한반도 A1B 기후변화시나리오에 따른 겉보리의 잠재생산량을 평가하였다. 생육 모의 지역은 30년 평년의 기상자료가 구축되어 있는 56개 지역으로 하였고, 생육 모의 연도는 기준연도(1971~2000년)와 3가지 미래 30년 평년(2011~2040년, 2041~2070년, 2071~2100년)으로 하였다. 그리고 온도효과 분석(온도 변화, $CO_2$ 농도 고정), $CO_2$효과 분석(온도 고정, $CO_2$ 농도 변화), 온난화효과 분석(온도 및 $CO_2$ 농도 변화) 등 3가지 생육모의 환경으로 구분하여 기후변화에 따른 겉보리의 잠재생산성 영향을 평가하였다. CERES-Barly 모형은 국내 겉보리의 발육단계뿐 아니라 수량을 실제 관측값과 아주 유사하게 모의하여($R^2=0.84$), 기후변화에 따른 겉보리의 잠재생산성 변화 예측에 활용하는데 무리가 없다고 판단되었다. 생육 모의 조건별 결과를 나타내면, (1) 온도효과 분석에서, 미래의 온도상승이 상대적으로 낮은 2011~ 2040년 생육 모의 연도의 잠재수량은 기준년도와 비슷한 반면에, 온도상승 정도가 큰 2041~2070, 2071~2100년의 미래 기후조건에서는 잠재수량이 기준년도에 비해 각각 6, 20%씩 감소하였다. 다음으로, (2) $CO_2$ 효과 분석에서, 3가지 미래 기후조건(2011~2040년, 2041~2070년, 2071~2100년)에서 겉보리의 평균 잠재수량이 기준년도에 비해 각각 12, 28, 43%씩 증가하였다. 마지막으로 (3) 온난화효과 분석에서, 미래 생육 모의 연도별(2011~2040년, 2041~2070년, 2071~2100년) 잠재수량은 기준년도에 비해 각각 13, 21, 19%씩 증가하였다.