• Title/Summary/Keyword: Climate Change Risk Assessment

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Assessment of physical condition of old large Chionanthus retusus(Chinese Fringe Tree) using structural stability analysis (천연기념물 이팝나무 노거수 구조안정성 진단을 통한 물리적 생육상태 평가)

  • SON Jiwon;SHIN Jinho
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.56 no.1
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    • pp.118-130
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    • 2023
  • Decay or large cavities inside trees are the main causes of trees overturning and broken branches, and structurally weakened trees are more vulnerable to strong winds and heavy snowfall. Recently, as strong winds and typhoons increase due to climate change, the damage to human life and property due to trees overturning continues to increase, and cultural assets are in a similar situation. In particular, old big trees are structurally vulnerable to external shocks such as strong winds and heavy snowfall. This study was aimed at providing a scientific basis for preventive protection measures by conducting a structural stability diagnosis of seven retusa fringe trees designated as natural monuments. For the structural stability diagnosis, tree risk assessment and internal tree defect measurements were performed. As a result of the tree risk assessment, the Retusa Fringe Trees in Sinjeon-ri, Yangsan and Gwangyangeupsu had the highest risk of broken branches due to weak branch attachment strength. As a result of the diagnosis of internal defects of cross sections of measured trees, there were suspected cavities or severe decay in all except two trees of the population of Retusa Fringe Trees in Pyeongji-ri. Natural disasters due to climate change are increasing, and the scale is getting larger, so it is very important to preemptively manage large old trees through scientific structural safety diagnosis to manage trees that are vulnerable to environmental changes.

Health Risk Assessment by Exposure to Heavy Metals in PM2.5 in Ulsan Industrial Complex Area (울산 산단지역 PM2.5 중 중금속 노출에 의한 건강위해성평가)

  • Ji-Yun Jung;Hye-Won Lee;Si-Hyun Park;Jeong-Il Lee;Dan-Ki Yoon;Cheol-Min Lee
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.108-117
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    • 2023
  • Background: When particles are absorbed into the human body, they penetrate deep into the lungs and interact with the tissues of the body. Heavy metals in PM2.5 can cause various diseases. The main source of PM2.5 emissions in South Korea's atmosphere has been surveyed to be places of business. Objectives: The concentration of heavy metals in PM2.5 near the Ulsan Industrial Complex was measured and a health risk assessment was performed for residents near the industrial complex for exposure to heavy metals in PM2.5. Methods: Concentrations of heavy metals in PM2.5 were measured at four measurement sites (Ulsan, Mipo, Onsan, Maegok) near the industrial complexes. Heavy metals were analyzed according to the Air Pollution Monitoring Network Installation and Operation Guidelines presented by the National Institute of Environmental Research. Among them, only five substances (Mn, Ni, As, Cd, Cr6+) were targeted. The risk assessment was conducted on inhalation exposure for five age groups, and the excess cancer risk and hazard quotient were calculated. Results: In the risk assessment of exposure to heavy metals in PM2.5, As, Cd, and Cr6+ exceeded the risk tolerance standard of 10-6 for carcinogenic hazards. The highest hazard levels were observed in Onsan and Mipo industrial complexes. In the case of non-carcinogenic hazards, Mn was identified as exceeding the hazard tolerance of 1, and it showed the highest hazard in the Ulsan Industrial Complex. Conclusions: This study presented a detailed health risk from exposure to heavy metals in PM2.5 by industrial complexes located in Ulsan among five age groups. It is expected to be utilized as the basis for preparing damage control and industrial emission reduction measures against PM2.5 exposure at the Ulsan Industrial Complex.

Future drought risk assessment under CMIP6 GCMs scenarios

  • Thi, Huong-Nguyen;Kim, Jin-Guk;Fabian, Pamela Sofia;Kang, Dong-Won;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.305-305
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    • 2022
  • A better approach for assessing meteorological drought occurrences is increasingly important in mitigating and adapting to the impacts of climate change, as well as strategies for developing early warning systems. The present study defines meteorological droughts as a period with an abnormal precipitation deficit based on monthly precipitation data of 18 gauging stations for the Han River watershed in the past (1974-2015). This study utilizes a Bayesian parameter estimation approach to analyze the effects of climate change on future drought (2025-2065) in the Han River Basin using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) with four bias-corrected general circulation models (GCMs) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)2-4.5 scenario. Given that drought is defined by several dependent variables, the evaluation of this phenomenon should be based on multivariate analysis. Two main characteristics of drought (severity and duration) were extracted from precipitation anomalies in the past and near-future periods using the copula function. Three parameters of the Archimedean family copulas, Frank, Clayton, and Gumbel copula, were selected to fit with drought severity and duration. The results reveal that the lower parts and middle of the Han River basin have faced severe drought conditions in the near future. Also, the bivariate analysis using copula showed that, according to both indicators, the study area would experience droughts with greater severity and duration in the future as compared with the historical period.

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Risk Assessment of Pine Tree Dieback in Sogwang-Ri, Uljin (울진 소광리 금강소나무 고사발생 특성 분석 및 위험지역 평가)

  • Kim, Eun-Sook;Lee, Bora;Kim, Jaebeom;Cho, Nanghyun;Lim, Jong-Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.109 no.3
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    • pp.259-270
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    • 2020
  • Extreme weather events, such as heat and drought, have occurred frequently over the past two decades. This has led to continuous reports of cases of forest damage due to physiological stress, not pest damage. In 2014, pine trees were collectively damaged in the forest genetic resources reserve of Sogwang-ri, Uljin, South Korea. An investigation was launched to determine the causes of the dieback, so that a forest management plan could be prepared to deal with the current dieback, and to prevent future damage. This study aimedto 1) understand the topographic and structural characteristics of the area which experienced pine tree dieback, 2) identify the main causes of the dieback, and 3) predict future risk areas through the use of machine-learning techniques. A model for identifying risk areas was developed using 14 explanatory variables, including location, elevation, slope, and age class. When three machine-learning techniques-Decision Tree, Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were applied to the model, RF and SVM showed higher predictability scores, with accuracies over 93%. Our analysis of the variable set showed that the topographical areas most vulnerable to pine dieback were those with high altitudes, high daily solar radiation, and limited water availability. We also found that, when it came to forest stand characteristics, pine trees with high vertical stand densities (5-15 m high) and higher age classes experienced a higher risk of dieback. The RF and SVM models predicted that 9.5% or 115 ha of the Geumgang Pine Forest are at high risk for pine dieback. Our study suggests the need for further investigation into the vulnerable areas of the Geumgang Pine Forest, and also for climate change adaptive forest management steps to protect those areas which remain undamaged.

Current research trends for heavy metals of agricultural soils and crop uptake in Korea (우리나라 농경지 중금속 동태 및 작물흡수 연구동향)

  • Lee, Ji-Ho;Kim, Ji-Young;Go, Woo-Ri;Jeong, Eun-Jung;Kunhikrishnan, Anitha;Jung, Goo-Bok;Kim, Doo-Ho;Kim, Won-Il
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.75-95
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    • 2012
  • BACKGROUND: Increase of heavy metals in agricultural ecosystem has become a social issue nationwide as it is related to public health. This review was performed to find out more systematic and integrated future researches on heavy metals using up to date articles published in the Korean journals related to agricultural environment. METHODS AND RESULTS: Researches on heavy metals in agricultural soils and plant uptake were categorized by the establishment of criteria, analytical methods, monitoring, management of source, characteristics and behavior in soil, plant uptake, bioavailability affecting physico -chemical properties in soil, risk assessment and soil remediation. In the early 1990s, the monitoring for heavy metals in soil has been widely performed. Accumulation of heavy metals in contaminated soil and availability to plants has also attracted interests to study the soil remediation using various physico-chemical methods. The phytoavailability and phytotoxicity of heavy metals have been mainly studied to assess the safety of agro-products using risk assessment techniques in the 2000s. CONCLUSION: Future direction of research on heavy metal in agricultural environment must be carried out by ensuring food safety and sustainability. A steady survey and proper management for polluted regions should be continued. Law and regulation must be modified systematically. Furthermore, studies should expand on mitigation of heavy metal uptake by crops and remediation of polluted fields.

Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Drought Risk (기후변화가 가뭄 위험성에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Kim, Byung-Sik;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Hung-Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2011
  • A chronic drought stress has been imposed during non-rainy season(from winter to spring) since 1990s. We faced the most significant water crisis in 2001, and the drought was characterized by sultry weather and severe drought on a national scale. It has been widely acknowledged that the drought related damage is 2-3 times serious than floods. In the list of the world's largest natural disaster compiled by NOAA, 4 of the top 5 disasters are droughts. And according to the analysis from the NDMC report, the drought has the highest annual average damage among all the disasters. There was a very serious impact on the economic such as rising consumer price during the 2001 spring drought in Korea. There has been flood prevention measures implemented at national-level but for mitigation of droughts, there are only plans aimed at emergency (short-term) restoration rather than the comprehensive preventive measures. In addition, there is a lack of a clear set of indicators to express drought situation objectively, and therefore it is important and urgent to begin a systematic study. In this study, a nonstationary downscaling model using RCM based climate change scenario was first applied to simulate precipitation, and the simulated precipitation data was used to derive Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The SPI under climate change was used to evaluate the spatio-temporal variability of drought through principal component analysis at three different time scales which are 2015, 2045 and 2075. It was found that spatio-temporal variability is likely to modulate with climate change.

Development and Application of a Coastal Disaster Resilience Measurement Model for Climate Change Adaptation: Focusing on Coastal Erosion Cases (기후변화 적응을 위한 연안 재해 회복탄력성 측정 모형의 개발 및 적용: 연안침식 사례를 중심으로)

  • Seung Won Kang;Moon Suk Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.713-723
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    • 2023
  • Climate change is significantly affecting coastal areas, and its impacts are expected to intensify. Recent studies on climate change adaptation and risk assessment in coastal regions increasingly integrate the concepts of recovery resilience and vulnerability. The aim of this study is to develop a measurement model for coastal hazard recovery resilience in the context of climate change adaptation. Before constructing the measurement model, a comprehensive literature review was conducted on coastal hazard recovery resilience, establishing a conceptual framework that included operational definitions for vulnerability and recovery resilience, along with several feedback mechanisms. The measurement model for coastal hazard recovery resilience comprised four metrics (MRV, LRV, RTSPV, and ND) and a Coastal Resilience Index (CRI). The developed indices were applied to domestic coastal erosion cases, and regional analyses were performed based on the index grades. The results revealed that the four recovery resilience metrics provided insights into the diverse characteristics of coastal erosion recovery resilience at each location. Mapping the composite indices of coastal resilience indicated that the areas along the East Sea exhibited relatively lower coastal erosion recovery resilience than the West and South Sea regions. The developed recovery resilience measurement model can serve as a tool for discussions on post-adaptation strategies and is applicable for determining policy priorities among different vulnerable regional groups.

A Review on Environmental Impact Assessment and Policy Utilization through the Establishment of Ecological Outlook and Evaluation System (자연생태 전망평가체계 마련을 통한 환경영향평가 및 정책 활용방안 고찰)

  • Who-Seung Lee
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.363-376
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    • 2023
  • As the risk of biodiversity reduction and extinction becomes serious due to climate change and indiscriminate development, the importance of conservation of the natural environment and ecosystem is increasing. In this situation, Ireviewed that overseas cases of the ecological outlook and evaluation system aimed at providing information on natural resources and ecosystem change. As a results, other countries showed that various research institutes have been carrying on field surveys by classification group, but it was different from us that the investigated data are collected and managed in an integrated manner and repeatedly provided within a short period of time. In addition, it was analyzed that it was highly utilized in policy and environmental impact assessment by providing evaluation-based prediction and outlook information along with basic survey data. Based on this, the limitations of information use in our wildlife surveys and environmental impacts assessments were analyzed, and the estabilishment of a ecology outlook and evaluation system and policy support measures were considered. In addition, based on the proposed outlook and evaluation system preparation plan, a policy direction that can be effectively used in domestic natural ecosystem policies was proposed.

Study on Risk Assessment Method of Hydrogen Station using FAHP-HAZOP (FAHP-HAZOP을 적용한 수소충전소의 위험성평가 방법 연구)

  • Yeong Gwang Jo;Sien Ho Han
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.92-101
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    • 2023
  • To solve the problem of climate change, carbon neutrality has now become a necessity rather than an option. Hydrogen is not only a energy storage that can supplement the intermittent production of renewable energy, but is also considered a good alternative in the field of utilization as it does not emit carbon dioxide after reaction. In order to revitalize hydrogen vehicles, one of the fields of hydrogen utilization, the construction of hydrogen station infrastructure must be preceded. Prioritization of risk factors is necessary for efficient operation and risk assessment of hydrogen stations, but due to the short operation period of domestic hydrogen stations, there is a lack of frequency data on accidents and their reliability is low. In this study, we aim to identify the causes and consequences of deviations in hydrogen stations through HAZOP analysis. Additionally, we intend to analyze them using Fuzzy-AHP. Through this, we intend to derive the decision values for the causes of deviations in hydrogen stations and apply them to hydrogen accident cases and risk assessments to confirm the reliability and utility of the data.

Coastal Complex Disaster Risk Assessment in Busan Marine City (부산 마린시티 해안의 복합재난 위험성 평가)

  • Hwang, Soon-Mi;Oh, Hyoung-Min;Nam, Soo-yong;Kang, Tae-Soon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.506-513
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    • 2020
  • Due to climate change, there is an increasing risk of complex (hybrid) disasters, comprising rising sea-levels, typhoons, and torrential rains. This study focuses on Marine City, Busan, a new residential city built on a former landfill site in Suyeong Bay, which recently suffered massive flood damage following a combination of typhoons, storm surges, and wave overtopping and run-up. Preparations for similar complex disasters in future will depend on risk impact assessment and prioritization to establish appropriate countermeasures. A framework was first developed for this study, followed by the collection of data on flood prediction and socioeconomic risk factors. Five socioeconomic risk factors were identified: (1) population density, (2) basement accommodation, (3) building density and design, (4) design of sidewalks, and (5) design of roads. For each factor, absolute criteria were determined with which to assess their level of risk, while expert surveys were consulted to weight each factor. The results were classified into four levels and the risk level was calculated according to the sea-level rise predictions for the year 2100 and a 100-year return period for storm surge and rainfall: Attention 43 %, Caution 24 %, Alert 21 %, and Danger 11 %. Finally, each level, indicated by a different color, was depicted on a complex disaster risk map.