• Title/Summary/Keyword: Choice prediction

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An Empircal Model of Effective Path Length for Rain Attenuation Prediction (강우감쇠 유효경로 길이 예측을 위한 경험 모델)

  • 이주환;최용석;박동철
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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    • v.11 no.5
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    • pp.813-821
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    • 2000
  • The engineering of satellite communication systems at frequencies above 10GHz requires a method for estimating rain-caused outage probabilities on the earth-satellite path. A procedure for predicting a rain attenuation distribution from a point rainfall rate distribution is, therefore, needed. In order to predict rain attenuation on the satellite link, several prediction models such as ITU-R, Global, SAM, DAH model, have been developed and used at a particular propagation condition, they may not be appropriate to a propagation condition in Korean territory. In this paper, a new rain attenuation prediction method appropriate to a propagation condition in Korea is introduced. Based on the results from ETRI measurements, a new method has been derived for an empirical approach with an identification on the horizontal correction factor as in current ITU-R method, and the vertical correction factor has been suggested with decreasing power law as a function of rainfall rate. This proposed model uses the entire rainfall rate distribution as input to the model, while the ITU-R and DAH model approaches only use a single 0.01% annual rainfall rate and assume that the attenuation at other probability levels can be determined from that single point distribution. This new model was compared with several world-wide prediction models. Based on the analysis, we can easily know the importance of the model choice to predict rain attenuation for a particular location in the radio communication system design.

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Factors Affecting Selection of Delivery Facilities Pregnant Women (산모의 분만기관 선택관련 요인)

  • Lee, Choong-Wan;Yu, Seung-Hum;Oh, Hee-Choul
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.23 no.4 s.32
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    • pp.436-450
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    • 1990
  • This study was designed to investigate the mar factors affecting selection of delivery facilities by pregnant women. Five hundred women hospitalized at 23 Seoul-area delivery facilities, such as university hospitals, general hospitals, hospitals, and clinics were selected and given questionnaires from April 24 to May 7, 1990. A total of 350 questionnaires were collected and analysed for the study. The results are as follows ; 1. In general, variables which significantly affected the choice of delivery facilities included the age of women, their educational level, the educational level of their husbands, monthly average incomes and residential areas. 2. In analyzing the obstetrical characteristics of the women, those variables significantly affecting the choice of delivery facilities were the gestational period, the facilities for prenatal care, the frequency of prenatal care, the type of delivery, the frequency of miscarriage, previous delivery experiences and the awareness on prenatal care. 3. In comparing the motivation factors for selecting the delivery facilities, all the factors except convenience and need for hospitalization differed significantly among delivery facilities. 4. The factor analysis was assessed for twenty possible factors motivating the choice of delivery facilities. Six factors including personal service, scale of the facility, reputation, urgency, convenience, and experience were noted explaining by 57.7%. 5. In the discriminant analysis used to clarify the major factors affecting the selection of delivery facilities, the 16 significant variables were regarded as independent variables, and the type of delivery facilities was considered a dependent variable. The stepwise method was applied to the analysis. Detected discriminant variables were the facilities for prenatal care, scale factor, personal service factor, urgency factor, convenience factor, reputation factor, experience factor, gestational period, types of delivery, frequency of miscarriage, age and income. These 12 discriminant variables were tested, with reference to discriminant prediction, on their importance in the choice of the delivery facility, by the discriminant functional formula. The test showed a hit-rate of 67.7%. The results suggest that general characteristics, obstetrical characteristics, and motivations for selecting the delivery facilities differ significantly according to the types of the delivery facilities. This study implies that all types of delivery facilities should attempt to acommodate characteristics and motivations of pregnant women. The facilities should be prepared to increase their patients satisfaction with required medical conditions by improving service and responding to the pregnant women's preferences.

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Disc Cutter Consumptions Prediction on Applying Shield TBM at the Han Riverbed Tunnel (한강하저터널의 쉴드TBM 적용시 디스크 커터 소모량 예측과 소모량)

  • Choi, Jung-Myung;Jung, Hyuk-Sang;Chun, Byung-Sik;Lee, Yong-Joo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2010.03a
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    • pp.562-570
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    • 2010
  • This study was conducted to estimate the number of disc cutter consumption and to predict amount of disc cutters when a shield TBM(Tunnel Boring Machine) of the Han Riverbed Tunnel was applied. In fact, it is almost impossible to change the machine after starting the excavation using the shield TBM method. Therefore, it is important to design an appropriate equipment in the shield method - an efficiency choice of the operation equipment plays a key role in the shield tunnel processing. For the above reason, the disc cutter consumption prediction is quite important so that the detailed analysis is required. A number of disc cutter consumption was predicted by the three methods, viz. KOMATSU, MITSUBISHI and NTNU. In addition, the predicted results were compared with field data. The prediction of disc cutter consumption showed that 237 for KOMATSU, 501 for MITSUBISHI, and 634 for NTNU, respectively. However, a total number of 1,263 disc cutter consumption were investigated during the tunnel construction. It was found that there was a huge difference between the predicted and real values of the disc cutter consumption. The more detailed investigation showed that the disc cutter was worn out bluntly in the northbound tunnel, meanwhile it was worn out sharply in the southbound tunnel. In particular, the disc cutter consumption in the southbound tunnel was increased rapidly because of rear abrasion for remaining mucks in the chamber.

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The prediction of deformation according to tunnel excavation in weathered granite (화강 풍화암지반의 터널굴착에 따른 변형예측)

  • Cha, Bong-Geun;Kim, Young-Su;Kwo, Tae-Soon;Kim, Sung-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.329-340
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    • 2010
  • Mechanical behavior of underground cavity construction such as tunnel is very difficult to estimate due to complexity and uncertainty of ground. Prediction of behavior according to excavation of tunnel mainly uses method utilized of model test or numerical analysis. But scale model test is difficult to reappear field condition, numerical analysis is also very hard to seek choice of suitable constituent model and input data. To solve this problem, this paper forecasted the deformation of tunnel that applied to information of crown settlement and convergence, RMR in weathered granite by using the regression analysis. The result of the analysis shows that the crown settlement according to excavation occurs approximately 70~80% of total displacements within about 20 days. As a result of the prediction of crown settlement and convergence, an exponential function becomes more accurate at measurements than an algebraic function. Also this paper got a correlation in comparison of RMR and displacements of 6 sections.

Development to Prediction Technique of Slope Hazards in Gneiss Area using Decision Tree Model (의사결정나무모형을 이용한 편마암 지역에서의 급경사지재해 예측기법 개발)

  • Song, Young-Suk;Chae, Byung-Gon
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.45-54
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    • 2008
  • Based on the data obtained from field investigation and soil testing to slope hazards occurrence section and non-occurrence section in gneiss area, a prediction technique was developed by the use of a decision tree model, which is one of the statistical analysis methods. The slope hazards data of Seoul and Kyonggi Province, which were induced by heavy rainfall in 1998, were 104 sections in gneiss area. The number of data applied in developing prediction model was 61 sections except a vacant value. Among these data, the number of data occurred slope hazards was 34 sections and the number of data non-occurred slope hazards was 27 sections. The statistical analyses using the decision tree model were applied to chi-square statistics, gini index and entrophy index. As the results of analyses, a slope angle, a degree of saturation and an elevation were selected as the classification standard. The prediction model of decision tree using entrophy index is most likely accurate. The classification standard of the selected prediction model is composed of the slope angle, the degree of saturation and the elevation from the first choice stage. The classification standard values of the slope angle, the degree of saturation and elevation are $17.9^{\circ}$, 52.1% and 320 m, respectively.

Clinical evaluation of tooth replantation and transplantation of old patients (노인 환자에 있어서 치아 재식술 및 이식술의 임상적 고찰)

  • Ha, Jung-Hong;Jin, Myoung Uk
    • The Journal of the Korean dental association
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    • v.50 no.8
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    • pp.507-515
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this article is to discuss the effect of aging on the treatment of replantation and transplantation of teeth in old patients. I case of replantation and 2 cases of transplantations in old patients are reported in this article. Patients aged 65 and over are included. They had several problems such as periapical lesion, crack or foot fractures. In those cases, the replantation and transplantation were treatment of choice. White ProRoot MTA was used in apical retrograde filling and perforation repair. After replantation and transplantation of teeth, follow-up visits showed signs of healing in 3 cases. Considerations and indications for replantation and transplantation are not much affected by age. Old patients are aware that replantation and transplantation can be performed comfortably and that age is not a factor in prediction success.

Nuclear Corrosion: Achievements and Challenges

  • Feron, Damien
    • Corrosion Science and Technology
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.113-119
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    • 2016
  • Corrosion science faces new challenges in various nuclear environments. Three main areas may be identified where increases of knowledge and understanding have been done and are still needed to face the technical needs: (i) the extension of the service time of nuclear power plants from 40 years, as initially planned, to 60 years and probably more as expected now, (ii) the prediction of long term behaviour of metallic materials in nuclear waste disposal where the corrosion processes have to be predicted over large periods of time, some thousands years and more, (iii) the choice of materials for use at very high temperatures as expected in Generation IV power plants in environments like gas (helium), supercritical water, liquid metals or salts. Service time extension, deep geological waste repositories and high temperature reactors sustain researches and developments to model corrosion phenomena at various scales, from atoms to components.

A Predictive Model for Sensory Difference Tests Accounting for Sequence Effects

  • Lee, Hye-Seong
    • Food Science and Biotechnology
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.1052-1059
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    • 2008
  • Sequential Sensitivity Analysis (SSA) and conditional stimulus model have been developed to describe sequence effects in difference tests and proposed to generate prediction of differences in sensitivity between various test protocols and to assist the appropriate selection of difference test. Yet, such models did not furnish a complete explanation of the relative sensitivity in 4 different versions of 3-alternative forced choice (AFC) tests where various interstimulus rinses were introduced. In the present study, the vector of the contrasts between various conditional stimuli were measured using same-different and 2-AFC and a new 16-distribution conditional stimulus model was developed by refining Lee and O'Mahony's contrast model. This new model gave superior predictions than previous models.

Prediction Model of the Exit Cross Scetional Shape in Round-Oval -round Pass Rolling

  • Lee, Young seog;Gert Goldhahn
    • International Journal of Precision Engineering and Manufacturing
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.87-93
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    • 2001
  • A reliable analytic model that determines the exit cross sectional shape a workpiece(material) in round-oval (oroval-round) pass sequence has been developed. The exit cross sectional shape of an outgoing workpiece is predicted by using the linear interpolation of the radius of curvature of an incoming workpiece and that of roll groovw to the roll axis direction. The requirements placed on the choice of the weighting function were to ensure boundary conditions specified. The validity of the analytic model has been examined by not rod rolling experiment with the roll gap and specimen size changed. The exit cross sectional shape and area of the workpiece predicted by the proposed analytic model were good agreement with those obtained experimentally. We found that the analytic model has not only simplicity and accuracy for practical usage but also save a large amount of computational time compared with finite element method.

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Data-Dependent Choice of Optimal Number of Lags in Variogram Estimation

  • Choi, Seung-Bae;Kang, Chang-Wan;Cho, Jang-Sik
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.609-619
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    • 2010
  • Geostatistical data among spatial data is analyzed in three stages: (1) variogram estimation, (2) model fitting for the estimated variograms and (3) spatial prediction using the fitted variogram model. It is very important to estimate the variograms properly as the first stage(i.e., variogram estimation) affects the next two stages. In general, the variogram is estimated with the moment estimator. To estimate the variogram, we have to decide the 'lag increment' or the 'number of lags'. However, there is no established rule for selecting the number of lags in estimating the variogram. The present paper proposes a method of choosing the optimal number of lags based on the PRESS statistic. To show the usefulness of the proposed method, we perform a small simulation study and show an empirical example with with air pollution data from Korea.