• Title/Summary/Keyword: Choice prediction

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Destination Choice Behavior for Recreation Areas : Application of Generalized Logit Models (서울시내와 근교에 위치한 당일여가용 Recreation시설의 선택행동 확정에 관한 연구 : Generalized Logit Model의 적용)

  • 홍성권
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 1994
  • This study was carried out to identify destination choice behavior for one-day use recreation areas. Previous positioning study was utilized to select 4 study areas, and the secondary data were used for logit analyses. The Hausamn-McFadden test for IIA was conducted to examine whether conditional logit models are valid methodology for this study. The results revealed that IIA assumption among the study areas was violated; therefore, generalized binomial and generalized multinomial logit models were used in this study. In the binomial logit analysis, 2 to 5 independent variables were included in the models: their $\rho$2 values were from 0.1to 0.323, and accuracy of predictions were from 65.38 to 79.86 percent. In the multinomial logit analysis, 4 independent variables were included in the model: its $\rho$2 value was 0.207, and accuracy of prediction was 45.82 percent. The results showed that the conditional logit should be used with caution because of the IIA assumption. Several suggestions were described, mainly due to utilization of the secondary data for this study.

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The Interaction Potential Functions in an Electrolyte Protein Solution

  • Jee, Nam-Yong;Kim, Jae-Jun
    • Macromolecular Research
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.654-658
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    • 2006
  • Recent developments in equations of state for molecular fluids have demonstrated the feasibility of using the hard-sphere equation to describe the effects of repulsive forces in simple fluids. By including a suitable term for attractive forces, most conveniently a uniform background potential, the properties of bio-macromolecular interaction can be roughly calculated. However, the choice of the potential used in perturbed hard-sphere chain (PHSC) theory for describing the attractions between macromolecules is rather complicated. For hard-sphere chains, the prediction accuracy from each model strongly depends on the choice of potential function.

Development of a GUI Program for the Position Prediction of Distressed Vessel (조난 선박의 위치추정을 위한 GUI 프로그램 개발)

  • 강신영
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2002.11a
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2002
  • To provide an easy operation of drift prediction model in SAR(search and rescue) mission a GUI program running on Window environment has developed. Users can make choice of input data on the screen by just clicking the mouse and the prediction results of datum points and trajectories of vessels are drawn on the map. The program contains both Leeway Equation model and mathematical model. The FORTRAN language was used in programming and Lehay Winteracter 4.0 software was utilized for graphic presentation. The result of May, 2001 Busan field experiment was plotted with that of model prediction for demonstration purpose.

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Theoretical Approach of Optimization of the Gain Parameters α, β and γ of a Tracking Module for ARPA system on Board Warships

  • Jeong, Tae-Gweon;Pan, Bao-Feng;Njonjo, Anne Wanjiru
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2015.10a
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    • pp.55-57
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    • 2015
  • The tracking system plays a key role in accurate estimation and prediction of maneuvering vessel's position and velocity in a bid to enhance safety by taking avoiding action against collision. Therefore, in order to achieve this, many ocean- going vessels are equipped with radar and the ARPA system. However, the accuracy of prediction highly depends on the choice of the gain parameters, ${\alpha}$, ${\beta}$ and ${\gamma}$ employed in the tracking filter. P revious research of this paper was based on theoretically developing an algorithm for a tracking module. This research paper is hence a continuation by the authors to determine the optimal values of the gain parameters used in the tracking module. A tracking algorithm is developed using the ${\alpha}-{\beta}-{\gamma}$ filter to carry out prediction and smoothing of the positions and velocities. Numerical simulations are then performed to evaluate the optimal values of the smoothing parameters that will improve the performance of the tracking module and reduce measurement noise. The twice distance root mean square (2drms) is then calculated to determine error variation.

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Development of a GUI Program for the Position Prediction of Distressed Vessel (조난 선박의 위치추정을 위한 GUI 프로그램 개발)

  • Kang, Sin-Young
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.491-495
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    • 2002
  • To provide an easy operation of drift prediction model in SAR(search and rescue) mission a GUI program running on Windows environment has developed. Users can make choice of input data on the screen by just clicking the mouse and the prediction results of datum points and trajectories of vessels are drawn on the electric chart. The program contains both Leeway Equation model and Mathematical model. The FORTRAN language was used in programming and Lehay Winteraction 4.0 software was utilized for graphic presentation. The result of May, 2001 Busan field experiment was plotted with that of model prediction for demonstration purpose.

Comparison between Word Embedding Techniques in Traditional Korean Medicine for Data Analysis: Implementation of a Natural Language Processing Method (한의학 고문헌 데이터 분석을 위한 단어 임베딩 기법 비교: 자연어처리 방법을 적용하여)

  • Oh, Junho
    • Journal of Korean Medical classics
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.61-74
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    • 2019
  • Objectives : The purpose of this study is to help select an appropriate word embedding method when analyzing East Asian traditional medicine texts as data. Methods : Based on prescription data that imply traditional methods in traditional East Asian medicine, we have examined 4 count-based word embedding and 2 prediction-based word embedding methods. In order to intuitively compare these word embedding methods, we proposed a "prescription generating game" and compared its results with those from the application of the 6 methods. Results : When the adjacent vectors are extracted, the count-based word embedding method derives the main herbs that are frequently used in conjunction with each other. On the other hand, in the prediction-based word embedding method, the synonyms of the herbs were derived. Conclusions : Counting based word embedding methods seems to be more effective than prediction-based word embedding methods in analyzing the use of domesticated herbs. Among count-based word embedding methods, the TF-vector method tends to exaggerate the frequency effect, and hence the TF-IDF vector or co-word vector may be a more reasonable choice. Also, the t-score vector may be recommended in search for unusual information that could not be found in frequency. On the other hand, prediction-based embedding seems to be effective when deriving the bases of similar meanings in context.

The development and application of on-line model for the prediction of roll force in hot strip rolling (얼간 사상 압연중 압하력 예측 모델 개발 및 적용)

  • Lee J. H.;Choi J. W.;Kwak W. J.;Hwang S. M.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Technology of Plasticity Conference
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    • 2004.08a
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    • pp.175-183
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    • 2004
  • In hot strip rolling, a capability for precisely predicting roll force is crucial for sound process control. In the past, on-line prediction models have been developed mostly on the basis of Orowan's theory and its variation. However, the range of process conditions in which desired prediction accuracy could be achieved was rather limited, mainly due to many simplifying assumptions inherent to Orowan's theory. As far as the prediction accuracy is concerned, a rigorously formulated finite element(FE) process model is perhaps the best choice. However, a FE process model in general requires a large CPU time, rendering itself inadequate for on-line purpose. In this report, we present a FE-based on-line prediction model applicable to precision process control in a finishing mill(FM). Described was an integrated FE process model capable of revealing the detailed aspects of the thermo-mechanical behavior of the roll-strip system. Using the FE process model, a series of process simulation was conducted to investigate the effect of diverse process variables on some selected non-dimensional parameters characterizing the thermo-mechanical behavior of the strip. Then, it was shown that an on-line model for the prediction of roll force could be derived on the basis of these parameters. The prediction accuracy of the proposed model was examined through comparison with measurements from the hot strip mill.

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A Travel Time Prediction Model under Incidents (돌발상황하의 교통망 통행시간 예측모형)

  • Jang, Won-Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.71-79
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    • 2011
  • Traditionally, a dynamic network model is considered as a tool for solving real-time traffic problems. One of useful and practical ways of using such models is to use it to produce and disseminate forecast travel time information so that the travelers can switch their routes from congested to less-congested or uncongested, which can enhance the performance of the network. This approach seems to be promising when the traffic congestion is severe, especially when sudden incidents happen. A consideration that should be given in implementing this method is that travel time information may affect the future traffic condition itself, creating undesirable side effects such as the over-reaction problem. Furthermore incorrect forecast travel time can make the information unreliable. In this paper, a network-wide travel time prediction model under incidents is developed. The model assumes that all drivers have access to detailed traffic information through personalized in-vehicle devices such as car navigation systems. Drivers are assumed to make their own travel choice based on the travel time information provided. A route-based stochastic variational inequality is formulated, which is used as a basic model for the travel time prediction. A diversion function is introduced to account for the motorists' willingness to divert. An inverse function of the diversion curve is derived to develop a variational inequality formulation for the travel time prediction model. Computational results illustrate the characteristics of the proposed model.

A Conjoint-Based Approach to Analyze the Importance of Brand Choice Attributes: Pizza Restaurant Cases (컨조인트 분석을 통한 피자 브랜드 선택 속성의 중요도 분석)

  • 양일선;채인숙;이민아;신서영;차진아
    • Korean Journal of Community Nutrition
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.354-360
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    • 2002
  • The purposes of this study were (1) to understand how customers trade off one attribute against another when they choose a pizza restaurant, (2) to compare the importance of individual attributes with their relative importance and (3) to compare customers'brand choice patterns with the prediction of pizza restaurant operators. Empirical data for this study were collected from the customers (n=307) and operators (n=273) of flour famous pizza franchise restaurants in Korea, Pizza Hut, Mister Pizza, Domino's Pizza and Pizza Mall. The attributes and attribute levels for the hypothetical profiles were decided from the focus group discussion. A total of 16 profiles was selected from fractional factorial designs. The SPSS conjoint procedure was used to calculate utility scores and simulate profiles. The overall group statistics showed the relative importance of all attributes compared with one other. Taste was the most important attribute (32.48%) in choosing a pizza restaurant, followed by service (21.87%) , atmosphere (17.23%), price (15.17%) and speed of delivery (13.26%). There was a difference between the customers'ratings of the importance of the individual attributes and the ranking of the same attributes'relative importance as derived from the conjoint analysis. The operators rated service (26.54%) as also being important, as well as taste (27.76%), in choosing a pizza restaurant. The rankings of relative importance for pizza taste, service and price were statistically different in the customers'and operators'data (p < 0.001, p < 0.1, p < 0.5). Operators who want to differentiate themselves from their competitors should make decisions based on an increased understanding of their customers'brand choice decision process and measure the hidden needs of their customers.

Development and Application of the Mode Choice Models According to Zone Sizes (분석대상 규모에 따른 수단분담모형의 추정과 적용에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Ju-Yeong;Lee, Seung-Jae;Kim, Do-Gyeong;Jeon, Jang-U
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.97-106
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    • 2011
  • Mode choice model is an essential element for estimating- the demand of new means of transportation in the planning stage as well as in the establishment phase. In general, current demand analysis model developed for the mode choice analysis applies common parameters of utility function in each region which causes inaccuracy in forecasting mode choice behavior. Several critical problems from using common parameters are: a common parameter set can not reflect different distribution of coefficient for travel time and travel cost by different population. Consequently, the resulting model fails to accurately explain policy variables such as travel time and travel cost. In particular, the nonlinear logit model applied to aggregation data is vulnerable to the aggregation error. The purpose of this paper is to consider the regional characteristics by adopting the parameters fitted to each area, so as to reduce prediction errors and enhance accuracy of the resulting mode choice model. In order to estimate parameter of each area, this study used Household Travel Survey Data of Metropolitan Transportation Authority. For the verification of the model, the value of time by marginal rate of substitution is evaluated and statistical test for resulting coefficients is also carried out. In order to crosscheck the applicability and reliability of the model, changes in mode choice are analyzed when Seoul subway line 9 is newly opened and the results are compared with those from the existing model developed without considering the regional characteristics.