• Title/Summary/Keyword: Choice prediction

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Exploring the motivation for science learning of 3rd year high school students who chose different college majors from their track (계열과 다른 대학 전공으로 진학한 고등학교 3학년 학생의 과학학습동기의 특성 탐색)

  • Ha, Minsu;Shin, Sein;Lee, Jun-Ki
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.317-324
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    • 2016
  • This study aims to investigate the motivation for science learning of 3rd year high school students who choose different majors from their track. A total of 2,012 high school 3rd year students participated in this study. We used Science Motivation Questionnaire II (Glynn et al., 2011) to measure the students' science motivation and performed Rasch analysis, MANOVA and logistic regression analysis. First, results showed that 11.5% of students in the science track switched their pathway to a non-STEM major and 14.3% of students in the humanities track switched to a STEM major. In addition, there were gender differences in switching majors. Second, we found a significant difference in science motivation between two groups of students switching their major only in career motivation. Third, science motivation was the significant predictor of STEM major choice; in particular, career motivation was the most influential variable. Based on these results, we proposed that prediction of and paying close attention to students' career motivation are required before making decisions on which track to take.

Model Identification for Control System Design of a Commercial 12-inch Rapid Thermal Processor (상업용 12인치 급속가열장치의 제어계 설계를 위한 모델인식)

  • Yun, Woohyun;Ji, Sang Hyun;Na, Byung-Cheol;Won, Wangyun;Lee, Kwang Soon
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.486-491
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    • 2008
  • This paper describes a model identification method that has been applied to a commercial 12-inch RTP (rapid thermal processing) equipment with an ultimate aim to develop a high-performance advanced controller. Seven thermocouples are attached on the wafer surface and twelve tungsten-halogen lamp groups are used to heat up the wafer. To obtain a MIMO balanced state space model, multiple SIMO (single-input multiple-output) identification with highorder ARX models have been conducted and the resulting models have been combined, transformed and reduced to a MIMO balanced state space model through a balanced truncation technique. The identification experiments were designed to minimize the wafer warpage and an output linearization block has been proposed for compensation of the nonlinearity from the radiation-dominant heat transfer. As a result from the identification at around 600, 700, and $800^{\circ}C$, respectively, it was found that $y=T(K)^2$ and the state dimension of 80-100 are most desirable. With this choice the root-mean-square value of the one-step-ahead temperature prediction error was found to be in the range of 0.125-0.135 K.

A study on Crack Healing of Various Glassy Polymers (part I) -theoretical modeling- (유리질 중합체의 균열 Healing에 관한 연구 (제1보) -이론 모델링-)

  • Lee, Ouk-Sub
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.40-49
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    • 1986
  • Crack, craze and void are common defects which may be found in the bulk of polymeric materials such as either themoplastics or thermosets. The healing phenomena, autohesion, of these defects are known to be a intrinsic material property of various polymeric materials. However, only a few experimental and theoretical investigations on crack, void and craze healing phenomena for various polymeric materials have been reported up to date [1, 2, 3]. This may be partly due to the complications of healing processes and lacking of appropriate theoretical developments. Recently, some investigators have been urged to study the healing phenomena of various polymenic materials since the significance of the use of polymer based alloys or composites has been raised in terms of specific strength and energy saving. In the earlier published reports [1, 2, 3, 4], the crack and void healing velocity, healing toughness and some other healing mechanical and physical properties were measured experimentally and compared with predicted values by utilizing a simple model such as the reptation model under some resonable assumptions. It seems, however, that the general acceptance of the proposed modeling analyses is yet open question. The crack healing processes seem to be complicate and highly dependent on the state of virgin material in terms of mechanical and physical properties. Furthermore, it is also strongly dependent on the histories of crack, craze and void development including fracture suface morphology, the shape of void and the degree of disentanglement of fibril in the craze. The rate of crack healing may be a function of environmental factors such as healing temperature, time and pressure which gives different contact configurations between two separated surfaces. It seems to be reasonable to assume that the crack healing processes may be divided in several distinguished steps like stress relaxation with molecular chain arrangement, surface contact (wetting), inter- diffusion process and com;oete healing (to obtain the original strength). In this context, it is likely that we no longer have to accept the limitation of cumulative damage theories and fatigue life if it is probable to remove the defects such as crack, craze and void and to restore the original strength of polymers or polymer based compowites by suitable choice of healing histories and methods. In this paper, we wish to present a very simple and intuitive theoretical model for the prediction of healed fracture toughness of cracked or defective polymeric components. The central idea of this investigation, thus, may be the modeling of behavior of chain molecules under healing conditions including the effects of chain scission on the healing processes. The validity of this proposed model will be studied by making comparisons between theoretically predicted values and experimentally determined results in near future and will be reported elsewhere.

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Trend and Prediction of Environmental Resources Consumption in the Korean Peninsula (한반도 단위의 환경자원 소비량 추이와 예측)

  • Yeo, Min Ju;Kim, Yong Pyo
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.261-279
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    • 2016
  • Trends of food and energy consumptions in South Korea, North Korea, and the Korean Peninsula were shown and consumptions of food and energy for the integrated Korean Peninsula with several Cases were predicted, and the directions for the environmental resources management were suggested in this study. The Food Supply Quantity, the Protein Supply Quantity, and the Food Supply of North Korea were less than those of South Korea, the Eastern Asia, and World after 1990s. However, it is expected that the food consumption in North Korea will increase, if two Koreas are integrated. If the Food Supply Quantity of North Korea is the same as that of South Korea with the maximum projected population of integrated two Koreas by 2055, the food consumption in the Korean Peninsula would increase by 25% compared with the 2011 food consumption of integrated two Koreas. Thus, the choice of diet should be carefully considered and the increase of agricultural productivity is required. Energy consumption in North Korea is very small comparing to that of South Korea and fraction of coal in energy usage of North Korea is very high. If the energy consumption per capita of North Korea after integration be the same as that of South Korea in 2011, the energy consumption in the Korean Peninsula would increase by 45% compared with the 2011 energy consumption of integrated two Koreas. To minimize the environmental effects caused by energy consumption, the energy plan with the reduced fraction of coal in energy supply of North Korea should be adopted and advanced technology with higher efficiency should be applied to establish or expand the energy facility in North Korea.

Is IPO More Efficient Than Back-door-listing? : Case of Korean Kosdaq Market (IPO가 우회상장보다 정보효율성이 더 높은가? : 코스닥시장을 중심으로)

  • Kang, Won
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.121-156
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    • 2010
  • Back-door-listing can be viewed both as M&A and an alternative to IPO. If IPO is an access to the capital market through regulations, back-door-listing would be the way of entering the market through trading. Back-door-listing can be a better choice considering the common wisdom that regulations hinder the functioning of free market system. One would, however, prefer IPO, for the informational asymmetry isless severe in case of IPO. This paper examines if IPO is superior to back-door-listing as to the informational efficiency. The excess buy-and-hold returns of the Kosdaq back-door-listing firms are estimated over the three-year-period since the event. They are compared against the excess buy-and-hold returns of the Kosdaq IPO firms over the same period of time. The results confirm this paper's prediction that IPO should be more information-efficient. Both IPO and back-door-listing firms start with high short-term excess returns and end up with long-term under-performance. However, back-door-listing firms show more significantly damaging long-term results. Furthermore, back-door-listing firms record poorer accounting results over the research period. These results imply that there exists fad at the time of both events and, in case of back-door-listing, this fad is reinforced by the possibility of window dressing.

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A Causation Study for car crashes at Rural 4-legged Signalized Intersections Using Nonlinear Regression and Structural Equation Methods (비선형 회귀분석과 구조방정식을 이용한 지방부 4지 신호교차로의 사고요인분석)

  • Oh, Ju Taek;Kweon, Ihl;Hwang, Jeong Won
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.65-76
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    • 2013
  • Traffic accidents at signalized intersections have been increased annually so that it is required to examine the causation to reduce the accidents. However, the current existing accident models were developed mainly by using non-linear regression models such as Poisson methods. These non-linear regression methods lack to reveal the complicated causation for traffic accidents, though they are the right choice to study randomness and non-linearity of accidents. Therefore, it is required to utilize another statistical method to make up for the lack of the non-linear regression methods. This study developed accident prediction models for 4 legged signalized intersections with Poisson methods and compared them with structural equation models. This study used structural equation methods to reveal the complicated causation of traffic accidents, because the structural equation method has merits to explain more causational factors for accidents than others.

Development and Effectiveness Analysis of Sustainable Dietary Free-year Program for the Improvement of Youth Empowerment in Middle School Home Economics (청소년의 임파워먼트 향상을 위한 가정교과 지속가능한 식생활 자유학년제 프로그램 개발 및 효과분석)

  • Choi, Seong-Yeon;Han, Ju
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.129-152
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study was to develop a sustainable dietary education program for middle school home economics subject using a teaching strategy to improve the empowerment of adolescents and to verify and evaluate the effectiveness of the program. To achieve the purpose of this study, the program was developed and evaluated according to the ADDIE teaching design model. The contents related to the dietary area were extracted from the technical & home economics curriculum of the 2015 revised middle school and SDGs, and their relevance was analyzed to select the contents of dietary education. The program developed based on the analysis results is 'dietary life together' and consists of five learning topics: 'living together in the global village', 'maintaining healthy diet', 'creating a dietary culture together', 'living with nature and people', and 'maintaining a safe diet'. As a strategy for improving empowerment, we presented four situations, each of which represents value judgment, prediction of results, responsible behavior choice, and decision making. The developed program was reviewed by experts and applied to 17 unit classes for 17 weeks (1 unit hour per week) to the third graders of middle schools in Gyeonggi-do. Significant differences were found between before and after the class measurements of the personal empowerment and the political and social empowerment, which shows the classes were effective in improving empowerment. However, since there was no significant difference in interpersonal empowerment before and after the program, suggestions were made to utilize strategies to facilitate discussion and cooperative learning when implementing the program. The students who participated in the class evaluated the program positively as a whole. The program was evaluated to have helped the students believe they could change society through solving dietary problems.

Modern Paradigm of Organization of the Management Mechanism by Innovative Development in Higher Education Institutions

  • Kubitsky, Serhii;Domina, Viktoriia;Mykhalchenko, Nataliia;Terenko, Olena;Mironets, Liudmyla;Kanishevska, Lyubov;Marszałek, Lidia
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.22 no.11
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    • pp.141-148
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    • 2022
  • The development of the education system and the labor market today requires new conditions for unification and functioning, the introduction of an innovative culture in the field of Education. The construction of modern management of innovative development of a higher education institution requires consideration of the existing theoretical, methodological and practical planes on which its formation is based. The purpose of the article is to substantiate the modern paradigm of organizing the mechanism of managing the innovative development of higher education institutions. Innovation in education is represented not only by the final product of applying novelty in educational and managerial processes in order to qualitatively improve the subject and objects of management and obtain economic, social, scientific, technical, environmental and other effects, but also by the procedure for their constant updating. The classification of innovations in education is presented. Despite the positive developments in the development of Education, numerous problems remain in this area, which is discussed in the article. The concept of innovative development of higher education institutions is described, which defines the prerequisites, goals, principles, tasks and mechanisms of university development for a long-term period and should be based on the following principles: scientific, flexible, efficient and comprehensive. The role of the motivational component of the mechanism of innovative development of higher education institutions is clarified, which allows at the strategic level to create an innovative culture and motivation of innovative activity of each individual, to make a choice of rational directions for solving problems, at the tactical level - to form motives for innovative activity in the most effective directions, at the operational level - to monitor the formation of a system of motives and incentives, to adjust the directions of motivation. The necessity of the functional component of the mechanism, which consists in determining a set of steps and management decisions aimed at achieving certain goals of innovative development of higher education institutions, is proved. The monitoring component of the mechanism is aimed at developing a special system for collecting, processing, storing and distributing information about the stages of development of higher education institutions, prediction based on the objective data on the dynamics and main trends of its development, and elaboration of recommendations.

Prediction of Continuous Positive Airway Pressure Level for Treatment of Obstructive Sleep Apnea (폐쇄성 무호흡의 치료시 지속적 기도 양압치의 예측)

  • Lee, Kwan Ho;Chung, Jin Hong;Lee, Hyun Woo
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.43 no.5
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    • pp.755-762
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    • 1996
  • Background : Continuous positive airway pressure(CPAP) is doubtlessly using as a medical treatment of choice for patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) syndrome. CPAP is effective in OSA patients as a physical "pneumatic pressure splint" mechanism. We have done this study for two purposes, first to seek for the factors to determine the optimal CPAP titer, second to predict the minimal CPAP titer using the determined factors. Methods: We studied a 72 OSA patients who were treated with CPAP. All of them were studied by using a two nights polysomnographic rests in hospital. We compared the patients requiring CPAP over $10cmH_2O$ with those who required CPAP under 5cm $H_2O$ to determine the factors affecting the minimal CPAP titer. Results : The high CPAP group is characterized by a significantly higher body mass index(BMI), apnea index(AI) and apnea and hyponea index(AHI) and significantly lower lowest $SaO_2$. Regression analysis using the optimal four variables resulted in the following prediction equation for CPAP titer. CPAPtiter=8.382 + 0.064 ${\times}$ BMI + 0.077 ${\times}$ AI - 0.004 ${\times}$ AHI - 0.077 ${\times}$ lowest $SaO_2$ When this regression equation was applied to the 72 patients, the mean CPAP titer as predicted by the above equation was $7.80{\pm}2.96$ mmHg. Compared this value with actually determined CPAPtiter, $7.93{\pm}4.00$mmHg, there was no significant difference between the two values. Conclusion: Obesity, apnea severity and lowest Sa02 were strongly correlated with CPAP titer. Linear regression equation for CPAP titer using these indices predicted very closely the actually measured values in the sleep laboratory.

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Prediction of Life Expectancy for Terminally Ill Cancer Patients Based on Clinical Parameters (말기 암 환자에서 임상변수를 이용한 생존 기간 예측)

  • Yeom, Chang-Hwan;Choi, Youn-Seon;Hong, Young-Seon;Park, Yong-Gyu;Lee, Hye-Ree
    • Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.111-124
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    • 2002
  • Purpose : Although the average life expectancy has increased due to advances in medicine, mortality due to cancer is on an increasing trend. Consequently, the number of terminally ill cancer patients is also on the rise. Predicting the survival period is an important issue in the treatment of terminally ill cancer patients since the choice of treatment would vary significantly by the patents, their families, and physicians according to the expected survival. Therefore, we investigated the prognostic factors for increased mortality risk in terminally ill cancer patients to help treat these patients by predicting the survival period. Methods : We investigated 31 clinical parameters in 157 terminally ill cancer patients admitted to in the Department of Family Medicine, National Health Insurance Corporation Ilsan Hospital between July 1, 2000 and August 31, 2001. We confirmed the patients' survival as of October 31, 2001 based on medical records and personal data. The survival rates and median survival times were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and Log-rank test was used to compare the differences between the survival rates according to each clinical parameter. Cox's proportional hazard model was used to determine the most predictive subset from the prognostic factors among many clinical parameters which affect the risk of death. We predicted the mean, median, the first quartile value and third quartile value of the expected lifetimes by Weibull proportional hazard regression model. Results : Out of 157 patients, 79 were male (50.3%). The mean age was $65.1{\pm}13.0$ years in males and was $64.3{\pm}13.7$ years in females. The most prevalent cancer was gastric cancer (36 patients, 22.9%), followed by lung cancer (27, 17.2%), and cervical cancer (20, 12.7%). The survival time decreased with to the following factors; mental change, anorexia, hypotension, poor performance status, leukocytosis, neutrophilia, elevated serum creatinine level, hypoalbuminemia, hyperbilirubinemia, elevated SGPT, prolonged prothrombin time (PT), prolonged activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), hyponatremia, and hyperkalemia. Among these factors, poor performance status, neutrophilia, prolonged PT and aPTT were significant prognostic factors of death risk in these patients according to the results of Cox's proportional hazard model. We predicted that the median life expectancy was 3.0 days when all of the above 4 factors were present, $5.7{\sim}8.2$ days when 3 of these 4 factors were present, $11.4{\sim}20.0$ days when 2 of the 4 were present, and $27.9{\sim}40.0$ when 1 of the 4 was present, and 77 days when none of these 4 factors were present. Conclusions : In terminally ill cancer patients, we found that the prognostic factors related to reduced survival time were poor performance status, neutrophilia, prolonged PT and prolonged am. The four prognostic factors enabled the prediction of life expectancy in terminally ill cancer patients.

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