• Title/Summary/Keyword: Change of the Density

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Dopamine Transporter Density of the Basal Ganglia Assessed with I-123 IPT SPECT in Methamphetamine Abusers (Methamphetamine 남용자에서 I-123 IPT를 이용한 기저신경절 도파민운반체 밀도의 평가)

  • Lee, Joo-Ryung;Ahn, Byeong-Cheol;Kewn, Do-Hun;Sung, Young-Ok;Seo, Ji-Hyoung;Bae, Jin-Ho;Jeong, Shin-Young;Lee, Sang-Woo;Yoo, Jeong-Soo;Lee, Jae-Tae;Chi, Dae-Yoon;Lee, Kyu-Bo
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.481-488
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    • 2005
  • Purpose: Functional imaging of dopamine transporter (DAT) defines integrity of the dopaminergic system, and DAT is the target site of drugs of abuse such as cocaine and methamphetamine. Functional imaging the DAT may be a sensitive and selective indicator of neurotoxic change by the drug. The aim of the present study is to evaluate the clinical implications of qualitative/quantitative analyses of dopamine transporter imaging in methamphetamine abusers. Materials and Methods: Six detoxified methamphetamine abusers (abuser group) and 4 volunteers (control group) were enrolled in this study. Brain MRI was performed in all of abuser group. Abuser group underwent psychiatric and depression assessment using brief psychiatric rating scale (BPRS) and Hamilton depression rating scale (HAMD), respectively. All of the subjects underwent I-123 IPT SPECT (IPT SPECT). IPT SPECT image was analysed with visual qualitative method and quantitative method using basal ganglia dopamine transporter (DAT) specific/non-specific binding ratio (SBR). Comparison of DAT SBR between abuser and control groups was performed. We also performed correlation tests between psychiatric and depression assessment results and DAT SBR in abuser group. Results: All of abuser group showed normal MRI finding, but had residual psychiatric and depressive symptoms, and psychiatric and depressive symptom scores were exactly correlated (r=1.0, p=0.005) each other. Five of them showed abnormal finding on qualitative visual I-123 IPT SPECT Abuser group had lower basal ganglia DAT SBR than that of control ($2.38{\pm}0.20\;vs\;3.04{\pm}0.27$, p=0.000). Psychiatric and depressive symptoms were negatively well correlated with basal ganglia DAT SBR (r=-0.908, p=0.012, r=-0.924, p=0.009). Conclusion: These results suggest that dopamine transporter imaging using I-123 IPT SPECT may be used to evaluate dopaminergic system of the basal ganglia and the clinical status in methamphetamine abusers.

Epidemiological Studies of Clonorchiasis. - I. Current Status and Natural Transition of the Endemicity of Clonorchis sinensis in Gimhae Gun and Delta, a High Endemic area in Korea (간흡충증(肝吸虫症)의 역학(疫學) - I. 고도유행지(高度流行地) 김해지방(金海地方)에 있어서의 간흡충감염(肝吸虫感染)의 현황(現況)과 자연추이(自然推移))

  • Kim, D.C.;Lee, O.Y.;Lee, J.S.;Ahn, J.S.;Chang, Y.M;Son, S.C.;Moon, I.S.
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.44-65
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    • 1983
  • As a part of the epidemiological studies of clonorchiasis, this study was conducted to evaluate the current endemicity and the natural transition of the Clonorchis infection in Gimhae Gun and delta area a high endemic area in Korea in recent years, prior to the introduction of praziquantel which will eventually influence the status of the prevalence. The data obtained in this study in 1983 were evaluated for natural transition of the infection in comparison with those obtained 16 years ago in 1967 by the author(Kim, 1974). The areas of investigation, villages and schools surveyed, methods and techniques used in this study were the same as in 1967, except for the contents of the questionnaire for raw freshwater fish consumption by the local inhabitants. 1) The prevalence rate of clonorchiasis in the general population of the villages was 48.1% on the average out of a total of 484 persons examined. The average of those of the riverside-delta area was 65.2% and 43.0% in the inland area. Among the schoolchildren, the prevalence rate was 8.2% on the average out of a total of 1,423 examined. By area, the prevalence rate was 10.8% in the riverside delta area and 2.8% in the inland area. By sex, difference in the prevalence was seen only in the inhabitants of the inland area showing 52.4% in the male and 33.5% in the female. 2) In the natural transition of the infection, the prevalence rate among the inhabitants has decreased from 68.8% in 1967 to 48.1% in 1983, and in the schoolchildren from 56.4% in 1967 to 8.2% in 1983. The reduction rate was higher in the riverside-delta area than in the inland area. 3) In the prevalence rate by age, 11.9% was first seen in the 5-9 age group and the rate gradually increased up to 75.0% in the 50-59 age group. By sex, the rate was higher in the male than in the female in the 20-29 age group and over. 4) In the natural transition of the prevalence rate by age, the reduction rate of the infection during the past 16 years was greater in the younger age groups up to the 40-49 age group and reached the same level in the age group 50-59. Reduction was seen again in the age group over 60s. By sex, the reduction rate was greater in the female than in the male in the 20-29 age group and over. By area, the reduction rate was greater in the riverside delta area than in the inland area, particularly in the young age groups. 5) In the intensity of the infection among the cases, the mean egg out-put per mg feces per infected cases(EPmg) in the inhabitants was 6.3. EPmg of those of the river-side-delta area was 15.4 and that of the in-land was 2.8. On the other hand, in the schoolchildren, EPmg was 3.2, and no difference was seen between the two areas, the river-side-delta area and the inland area. 6) In the transition of the intensity of the infection by area, EPmg among the inhabitants inexplically increased from 7.8 in 1967 to 15.4 in 1983. This was probably caused by uneven specimen collection in the process of sampling the population. EPmg of the inhabitants in the inland area and those of the schoolchildren of both riverside delta and inland areas showed a similar decrease in the past 16 years. 7) The intensity of the infection by age showed a relatively low level in the 20-29 age group and below, and EPmg 5.1-9.5 was seen in the 30-39 age group and over. Sex, Epmg was 5.8 in the male and 4.7 the female. By in 8) In the transition of the intensity of the infection, EPmg decreased from 6.2 in 1967 to 5.4 in 1983. By age, in contrast to the figures of 1967 in which EPmg gradually increased with some fluctuation from 1.1 in the 0-4 age group to peak 10.5 in the 50-59 age group, in 1983 lower intensity of the infection was seen in the age group from 10-14 to 20-29 with the EPmg range of 0.6-2.7. 9) In the distribution of the clonorchiasis cases by the range of EPmg value, 43.2% of the cases were in 0.1 0.9 and 34.6% in 1.0-4.9. As a whole by cumulative percent, 44.6% of them were under 0.9 as light infection and 86.1% of them under 9.9 up to moderate infection. By sex, no difference was seen in Epmg. 10) In the transition of the distribution by the range of Epmg, the cases were distributed up to the range 80.0-99.9 in 1967 and to 60.0-79.9 in 1983. By cumulative percent, in the range of 0.1-0.9 and less, light infection, 34.3% of them were distributed in 1967 and 44.6% in 1983 with about 10% increase. In the range of 5.0-9.9 and less, up to moderate infection, 83.2% in 1967 and 86.1% in 1983 of the cases were seen, respectively. 11) The practice of raw freshwater fish consumption among the inhabitants seems to have decreased in recent years. Those who admitted to raw freshwater fish consumption in the last two years among the infected inhabitants were 59.3%, although 86.8% of them professed to have experience with raw freshwater fish consumption. 31.7% of those who have had experience of the raw freshwater fish consumption denied any further consumption in recent years. From an interview of 543 school-children, 24.1% of them admitted to an experience of raw freshwater fish consumption. However, those who have practised in the past two years comprized 17.9%. Those who denied raw freshwater fish consumption in recent years among those who had such experience were 26.0% out of 131 interviewed. The rate of raw freshwater fish consumption in both inhabitants and schoolchildren were higher in the male than in the female. On the contrary, the rate of those who did not practise in recent years among those who had experience of raw freshwater fish consumption was higher in the female than in the male. 12) The major reason for the reduction of raw freshwater fish consumption among the local inhabitants was the risk of the fluke infection. However, it has become apparent that such change of taste has resulted from water pollution impact which has affected throughout the areas of the freshwater systems in this locality since last several years. 13) In animal survey, Clonorchis infection was seen in 14.8% of 88 dogs examined and 3.7% of 27 house rats examined. It was noted that populations of dogs and cats have increased in the villages surveyed. Although the prevalence rate was lower in the present survey than those of 1967, the significance of the animals as the reservoir host has not changed. 14) Prevalence rate of Clonorchis infection by cercariae in the first intermediate host, Parafossarulus manchouricus, was 0.6% out of 517 snails examined. The infection rate was lower in comparison with 2.3% out of 2,124 examined in 1967. Moreover, sharp decreases in number and distribution of the intermediate host snails in many watershed areas of the huge freshwater systems in this locality seemed to reduce transmission of Clonorchis in connection with the intermediate host stage of its life cycle. 15) Clonorchis infection in the second intermediate fish hosts was relatively low. The mean number of Clonorchis metacercaria per fish in Pseudorasbora parva was 517 in 1983, whereas it was 1943 in 1968 through 1969. Environmental water pollution has also caused the decreased fish population density in these areas, and this has also apparently affected to the practice of raw freshwater fish consumption among the local inhabitants. 16) In conclusion, endemicity of Clonorchis infection in Gimhae Gum and delta area of the Nagdong River has sharply decreased during the past 16 years. The major cause of the regressive transition of the infection was the water pollution of the land water systems of this locality. The pollution has upset the ecosystems comprizing of the intermediate hosts of Clonorchis in many areas, and also affected to a significant extent to the discontinuance of the local inhabitants for raw freshwater fish consumption.

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The Impact of Market Environments on Optimal Channel Strategy Involving an Internet Channel: A Game Theoretic Approach (시장 환경이 인터넷 경로를 포함한 다중 경로 관리에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구: 게임 이론적 접근방법)

  • Yoo, Weon-Sang
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.119-138
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    • 2011
  • Internet commerce has been growing at a rapid pace for the last decade. Many firms try to reach wider consumer markets by adding the Internet channel to the existing traditional channels. Despite the various benefits of the Internet channel, a significant number of firms failed in managing the new type of channel. Previous studies could not cleary explain these conflicting results associated with the Internet channel. One of the major reasons is most of the previous studies conducted analyses under a specific market condition and claimed that as the impact of Internet channel introduction. Therefore, their results are strongly influenced by the specific market settings. However, firms face various market conditions in the real worlddensity and disutility of using the Internet. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of various market environments on a firm's optimal channel strategy by employing a flexible game theory model. We capture various market conditions with consumer density and disutility of using the Internet.

    shows the channel structures analyzed in this study. Before the Internet channel is introduced, a monopoly manufacturer sells its products through an independent physical store. From this structure, the manufacturer could introduce its own Internet channel (MI). The independent physical store could also introduce its own Internet channel and coordinate it with the existing physical store (RI). An independent Internet retailer such as Amazon could enter this market (II). In this case, two types of independent retailers compete with each other. In this model, consumers are uniformly distributed on the two dimensional space. Consumer heterogeneity is captured by a consumer's geographical location (ci) and his disutility of using the Internet channel (${\delta}_{N_i}$).
    shows various market conditions captured by the two consumer heterogeneities.
    (a) illustrates a market with symmetric consumer distributions. The model captures explicitly the asymmetric distributions of consumer disutility in a market as well. In a market like that is represented in
    (c), the average consumer disutility of using an Internet store is relatively smaller than that of using a physical store. For example, this case represents the market in which 1) the product is suitable for Internet transactions (e.g., books) or 2) the level of E-Commerce readiness is high such as in Denmark or Finland. On the other hand, the average consumer disutility when using an Internet store is relatively greater than that of using a physical store in a market like (b). Countries like Ukraine and Bulgaria, or the market for "experience goods" such as shoes, could be examples of this market condition. summarizes the various scenarios of consumer distributions analyzed in this study. The range for disutility of using the Internet (${\delta}_{N_i}$) is held constant, while the range of consumer distribution (${\chi}_i$) varies from -25 to 25, from -50 to 50, from -100 to 100, from -150 to 150, and from -200 to 200.
    summarizes the analysis results. As the average travel cost in a market decreases while the average disutility of Internet use remains the same, average retail price, total quantity sold, physical store profit, monopoly manufacturer profit, and thus, total channel profit increase. On the other hand, the quantity sold through the Internet and the profit of the Internet store decrease with a decreasing average travel cost relative to the average disutility of Internet use. We find that a channel that has an advantage over the other kind of channel serves a larger portion of the market. In a market with a high average travel cost, in which the Internet store has a relative advantage over the physical store, for example, the Internet store becomes a mass-retailer serving a larger portion of the market. This result implies that the Internet becomes a more significant distribution channel in those markets characterized by greater geographical dispersion of buyers, or as consumers become more proficient in Internet usage. The results indicate that the degree of price discrimination also varies depending on the distribution of consumer disutility in a market. The manufacturer in a market in which the average travel cost is higher than the average disutility of using the Internet has a stronger incentive for price discrimination than the manufacturer in a market where the average travel cost is relatively lower. We also find that the manufacturer has a stronger incentive to maintain a high price level when the average travel cost in a market is relatively low. Additionally, the retail competition effect due to Internet channel introduction strengthens as average travel cost in a market decreases. This result indicates that a manufacturer's channel power relative to that of the independent physical retailer becomes stronger with a decreasing average travel cost. This implication is counter-intuitive, because it is widely believed that the negative impact of Internet channel introduction on a competing physical retailer is more significant in a market like Russia, where consumers are more geographically dispersed, than in a market like Hong Kong, that has a condensed geographic distribution of consumers.
    illustrates how this happens. When mangers consider the overall impact of the Internet channel, however, they should consider not only channel power, but also sales volume. When both are considered, the introduction of the Internet channel is revealed as more harmful to a physical retailer in Russia than one in Hong Kong, because the sales volume decrease for a physical store due to Internet channel competition is much greater in Russia than in Hong Kong. The results show that manufacturer is always better off with any type of Internet store introduction. The independent physical store benefits from opening its own Internet store when the average travel cost is higher relative to the disutility of using the Internet. Under an opposite market condition, however, the independent physical retailer could be worse off when it opens its own Internet outlet and coordinates both outlets (RI). This is because the low average travel cost significantly reduces the channel power of the independent physical retailer, further aggravating the already weak channel power caused by myopic inter-channel price coordination. The results implies that channel members and policy makers should explicitly consider the factors determining the relative distributions of both kinds of consumer disutility, when they make a channel decision involving an Internet channel. These factors include the suitability of a product for Internet shopping, the level of E-Commerce readiness of a market, and the degree of geographic dispersion of consumers in a market. Despite the academic contributions and managerial implications, this study is limited in the following ways. First, a series of numerical analyses were conducted to derive equilibrium solutions due to the complex forms of demand functions. In the process, we set up V=100, ${\lambda}$=1, and ${\beta}$=0.01. Future research may change this parameter value set to check the generalizability of this study. Second, the five different scenarios for market conditions were analyzed. Future research could try different sets of parameter ranges. Finally, the model setting allows only one monopoly manufacturer in the market. Accommodating competing multiple manufacturers (brands) would generate more realistic results.

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  • Current Status and Perspectives in Varietal Improvement of Rice Cultivars for High-Quality and Value-Added Products (쌀 품질 고급화 및 고부가가치화를 위한 육종현황과 전망)

    • 최해춘
      • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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      • v.47
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      • pp.15-32
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      • 2002
    • The endeavors enhancing the grain quality of high-yielding japonica rice were steadily continued during 1980s-1990s along with the self-sufficiency of rice production and the increasing demands of high-quality rices. During this time, considerably great progress and success was obtained in development of high-quality japonica cultivars and quality evaluation techniques including the elucidation of interrelationship between the physicochemical properties of rice grain and the physical or palatability components of cooked rice. In 1990s, some high-quality japonica rice cultivars and special rices adaptable for food processing such as large kernel, chalky endosperm, aromatic and colored rices were developed and its objective preference and utility was also examined by a palatability meter, rapid-visco analyzer and texture analyzer, Recently, new special rices such as extremely low-amylose dull or opaque non-glutinous endosperm mutants were developed. Also, a high-lysine rice variety was developed for higher nutritional utility. The water uptake rate and the maximum water absorption ratio showed significantly negative correlations with the K/Mg ratio and alkali digestion value(ADV) of milled rice. The rice materials showing the higher amount of hot water absorption exhibited the larger volume expansion of cooked rice. The harder rices with lower moisture content revealed the higher rate of water uptake at twenty minutes after soaking and the higher ratio of maximum water uptake under the room temperature condition. These water uptake characteristics were not associated with the protein and amylose contents of milled rice and the palatability of cooked rice. The water/rice ratio (in w/w basis) for optimum cooking was averaged to 1.52 in dry milled rices (12% wet basis) with varietal range from 1.45 to 1.61 and the expansion ratio of milled rice after proper boiling was average to 2.63(in v/v basis). The major physicochemical components of rice grain associated with the palatability of cooked rice were examined using japonica rice materials showing narrow varietal variation in grain size and shape, alkali digestibility, gel consistency, amylose and protein contents, but considerable difference in appearance and texture of cooked rice. The glossiness or gross palatability score of cooked rice were closely associated with the peak, hot paste and consistency viscosities of viscosities with year difference. The high-quality rice variety "IIpumbyeo" showed less portion of amylose on the outer layer of milled rice grain and less and slower change in iodine blue value of extracted paste during twenty minutes of boiling. This highly palatable rice also exhibited very fine net structure in outer layer and fine-spongy and well-swollen shape of gelatinized starch granules in inner layer and core of cooked rice kernel compared with the poor palatable rice through image of scanning electronic microscope. Gross sensory score of cooked rice could be estimated by multiple linear regression formula, deduced from relationship between rice quality components mentioned above and eating quality of cooked rice, with high probability of determination. The $\alpha$-amylose-iodine method was adopted for checking the varietal difference in retrogradation of cooked rice. The rice cultivars revealing the relatively slow retrogradation in aged cooked rice were IIpumbyeo, Chucheongyeo, Sasanishiki, Jinbubyeo and Koshihikari. A Tonsil-type rice, Taebaegbyeo, and a japonica cultivar, Seomjinbyeo, showed the relatively fast deterioration of cooked rice. Generally, the better rice cultivars in eating quality of cooked rice showed less retrogradation and much sponginess in cooled cooked rice. Also, the rice varieties exhibiting less retrogradation in cooled cooked rice revealed higher hot viscosity and lower cool viscosity of rice flour in amylogram. The sponginess of cooled cooked rice was closely associated with magnesium content and volume expansion of cooked rice. The hardness-changed ratio of cooked rice by cooling was negatively correlated with solids amount extracted during boiling and volume expansion of cooked rice. The major physicochemical properties of rice grain closely related to the palatability of cooked rice may be directly or indirectly associated with the retrogradation characteristics of cooked rice. The softer gel consistency and lower amylose content in milled rice revealed the higher ratio of popped rice and larger bulk density of popping. The stronger hardness of rice grain showed relatively higher ratio of popping and the more chalky or less translucent rice exhibited the lower ratio of intact popped brown rice. The potassium and magnesium contents of milled rice were negatively associated with gross score of noodle making mixed with wheat flour in half and the better rice for noodle making revealed relatively less amount of solid extraction during boiling. The more volume expansion of batters for making brown rice bread resulted the better loaf formation and more springiness in rice breed. The higher protein rices produced relatively the more moist white rice bread. The springiness of rice bread was also significantly correlated with high amylose content and hard gel consistency. The completely chalky and large grain rices showed better suitability far fermentation and brewing. The glutinous rice were classified into nine different varietal groups based on various physicochemical and structural characteristics of endosperm. There was some close associations among these grain properties and large varietal difference in suitability to various traditional food processing. Our breeding efforts on improvement of rice quality for high palatability and processing utility or value-adding products in the future should focus on not only continuous enhancement of marketing and eating qualities but also the diversification in morphological, physicochemical and nutritional characteristics of rice grain suitable for processing various value-added rice foods.ice foods.

    A Study of Equipment Accuracy and Test Precision in Dual Energy X-ray Absorptiometry (골밀도검사의 올바른 질 관리에 따른 임상적용과 해석 -이중 에너지 방사선 흡수법을 중심으로-)

    • Dong, Kyung-Rae;Kim, Ho-Sung;Jung, Woon-Kwan
      • Journal of radiological science and technology
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      • v.31 no.1
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      • pp.17-23
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      • 2008
    • Purpose : Because there is a difference depending on the environment as for an inspection equipment the important part of bone density scan and the precision/accuracy of a tester, the management of quality must be made systematically. The equipment failure caused by overload effect due to the aged equipment and the increase of a patient was made frequently. Thus, the replacement of equipment and additional purchases of new bonedensity equipment caused a compatibility problem in tracking patients. This study wants to know whether the clinical changes of patient's bonedensity can be accurately and precisely reflected when used it compatiblly like the existing equipment after equipment replacement and expansion. Materials and methods : Two equipments of GE Lunar Prodigy Advance(P1 and P2) and the Phantom HOLOGIC Spine Road(HSP) were used to measure equipment precision. Each device scans 20 times so that precision data was acquired from the phantom(Group 1). The precision of a tester was measured by shooting twice the same patient, every 15 members from each of the target equipment in 120 women(average age 48.78, 20-60 years old)(Group 2). In addition, the measurement of the precision of a tester and the cross-calibration data were made by scanning 20 times in each of the equipment using HSP, based on the data obtained from the management of quality using phantom(ASP) every morning (Group 3). The same patient was shot only once in one equipment alternately to make the measurement of the precision of a tester and the cross-calibration data in 120 women(average age 48.78, 20-60 years old)(Group 4). Results : It is steady equipment according to daily Q.C Data with $0.996\;g/cm^2$, change value(%CV) 0.08. The mean${\pm}$SD and a %CV price are ALP in Group 1(P1 : $1.064{\pm}0.002\;g/cm^2$, $%CV=0.190\;g/cm^2$, P2 : $1.061{\pm}0.003\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.192). The mean${\pm}$SD and a %CV price are P1 : $1.187{\pm}0.002\;g/cm^2$, $%CV=0.164\;g/cm^2$, P2 : $1.198{\pm}0.002\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.163 in Group 2. The average error${\pm}$2SD and %CV are P1 - (spine: $0.001{\pm}0.03\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.94, Femur: $0.001{\pm}0.019\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.96), P2 - (spine: $0.002{\pm}0.018\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.55, Femur: $0.001{\pm}0.013\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.48) in Group 3. The average error${\pm}2SD$, %CV, and r value was spine : $0.006{\pm}0.024\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.86, r=0.995, Femur: $0{\pm}0.014\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.54, r=0.998 in Group 4. Conclusion: Both LUNAR ASP CV% and HOLOGIC Spine Phantom are included in the normal range of error of ${\pm}2%$ defined in ISCD. BMD measurement keeps a relatively constant value, so showing excellent repeatability. The Phantom has homogeneous characteristics, but it has limitations to reflect the clinical part including variations in patient's body weight or body fat. As a result, it is believed that quality control using Phantom will be useful to check mis-calibration of the equipment used. A value measured a patient two times with one equipment, and that of double-crossed two equipment are all included within 2SD Value in the Bland - Altman Graph compared results of Group 3 with Group 4. The r value of 0.99 or higher in Linear regression analysis(Regression Analysis) indicated high precision and correlation. Therefore, it revealed that two compatible equipment did not affect in tracking the patients. Regular testing equipment and capabilities of a tester, then appropriate calibration will have to be achieved in order to calculate confidential BMD.

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    Estimation of GARCH Models and Performance Analysis of Volatility Trading System using Support Vector Regression (Support Vector Regression을 이용한 GARCH 모형의 추정과 투자전략의 성과분석)

    • Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik
      • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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      • v.23 no.2
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      • pp.107-122
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      • 2017
    • Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.


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