• 제목/요약/키워드: Causality Test

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Information Transmission of Volatility between WTI and Brent Crude Oil Markets

  • Kang, Sang Hoon;Yoon, Seong-Min
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.671-689
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    • 2013
  • Transmission mechanisms of volatility between two crude oil markets (WTI and Brent markets) have drawn the attention of numerous academics and practitioners because they both play crucial roles in portfolio and risk management in crude oil markets. In this context, we examined the volatility linkages between two representative crude oil markets using a VECM and an asymmetric bivariate GARCH model. First, looking at the return transmission through the VECM test, we found a long-run equilibrium and bidirectional relationship between two crude oil markets. However, the estimation results of the GARCH-BEKK model suggest that there is unidirectional volatility spillover from the WTI market to the Brent market, implying that the WTI market tends to exert influence over the Brent market and not vice versa. Regarding asymmetric volatility transmission, we also found that bad news volatility in the WTI market increases the volatility of the Brent market. Thus, WTI information is transmitted into the Brent market, indicating that the prices of the WTI market seem to lead the prices of the Brent market.

Self-confidence and Satisfaction in Father's Role Performance among Husbands of Primiparous (초산모 배우자의 아버지역할 수행에 대한 자신감과 만족도)

  • Sung, Mi-Hae;Joo, Kyung-Sook
    • Child Health Nursing Research
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.291-298
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    • 2007
  • Purpose: The father's role performance in this study was identified as the correlation between self-confidence and satisfaction with parenting role by husbands of primiparous. Methods: Participants were recruited at a professional obstetric and gynecologic hospital in Seoul. For use in this study, the tool by Lederman et al. was modified to incorporate father's self-confidence and satisfaction with role performance. Percentages, means, t-test, ANOVA and Pearson Correlation Coefficients were used to analyze the data with the SPSS WIN 11.0m program. Results: The mean score for self-confidence in father's role performance was 35.19 and satisfaction in father's role performance was 45.13. General characteristic significantly related to father's role performance were marriage satisfaction and type of delivery. Also marriage satisfaction and religion were related to satisfaction with role performance in this study. There was a positive correlation between degree of self-confidence and degree of satisfaction in father's role performance. Conclusions: The degree of satisfaction in father's role performance was positively related to self-confidence. So, nursing interventions to improve father's role performance may lead to improvement in father's self-confidence and satisfaction with role performance. Further research is needed to exam causality.

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Exploring Study on the Effect of Perceived Port Service Quality on Customer Satisfaction and Loyalty.

  • Chang, Jae-Gon;Lee, Hong-Girl;Lee, Cheol-Yeong
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.32 no.7
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    • pp.561-568
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    • 2008
  • Due to the rapid changes in world trade and shipping environment, today's ports face ever-increasing competition, from adjacent competing ports. To this reason, port service quality has been recognized as an important strategy to take competitive advantage for those competition. In general, service quality has effect on customer loyalty, and customer loyalty is the resource to sustain competitive advantage which service providers or service producers. By improving customer loyalty, companies can get more benefits and added value. However, this causality qf port service quality has not been clearly identified. Thus, various empirical studies in relation to port service quality are needed. The aim of this study is to analyze the effect of perceived port service quality on customer satisfaction and loyalty. To achieve this aim, we established 8 hypotheses based on SERVPERF in order to test correlations of 5 dimensions of port service, port service quality, customer satisfaction, and customer loyalty. From the result of the hypothesis testing, we found that customer satisfaction and port service quality do not affect customer loyalty in spite of high effect of port service on customer satisfaction.

Overconfidence Bias, Comparative Evidences between Vietnam and Selected ASEAN Countries

  • PHAN, Dzung Tran Trung;LE, Van Hoang Thu;NGUYEN, Thanh Thi Ha
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.101-113
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    • 2020
  • The study aims to investigate the existence of overconfidence bias in Vietnam, Thailand, and Singapore. This paper focuses on the Vietnam Stock Market and other two countries of ASEAN, namely Singapore and Thailand. Data was collected over the period from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2018, daily returns for each of the securities. This paper uses the time series method, namely ADF test, Granger Causality and VAR approach to find evidences of the overconfidence effect in Vietnam in relation to some ASEAN markets. The results show similarities between the observed countries with slight variations, with focus on Vietnam market. In general concrete evidences of overconfidence were found in both Vietnamese and Singaporean markets, in which Singaporean investors show higher degree of overconfidence than Vietnamese investors. Overconfidence is not as clear in Thai market, however a direct causal link from increased returns to increased investor confidence was found. From the model deployed in the paper, there are reasons to conclude that Thai investors are under-confident. The findings of the study shed lights into the existence of overconfidence bias in Vietnam, Thailand, and Singapore on a comparative basis, provide more insights and implications for future research in this new and rising field of research.

An IPA-based Study on the Sextic Industry's Potential for Continued Development from Producers' Viewpoint

  • Yang, Hoe-Chang;Kwon, Woo-Taek;Kim, Dong-Hwan
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.12 no.11
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    • pp.15-23
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    • 2014
  • Purpose - This study is one of a series of studies on the successful Sextic industry, which was conceived because of the urgency of transforming agriculture to cope with global market-opening pressures as well as to solve domestic difficulties facing Korean rural areas. Research design, data, and methodology - This study involved constructing a questionnaire based on evaluation standards proposed by prior research. Further, this study intended to lay the groundwork for the development of the Sextic industry through the use of IPA. It also sought to explore the possibility of developing scales capable of performing causality analysis. We conducted 149 effective questionnaires, and applied the paired t-test and IPA for the analysis. Results - The results of the analysis indicated that the degrees of producers' perceptions regarding the importance and performance with respect to five variables of the performance indicators were different. Conclusion - It was suggested that the implementing subjects of the Sextic industry should prevent possible problems relating to several factors by building close cooperative relationships with the interested parties of each industry.

Oil Price Fluctuations and Stock Market Movements: An Application in Oman

  • Echchabi, Abdelghani;Azouzi, Dhekra
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.19-23
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    • 2017
  • It is undisputable that crude oil and its price fluctuations are major components that affect most of the countries' economies. Recent studies have demonstrated that beside the impact that crude oil price fluctuations have on common macroeconomic indicators like gross domestic product (GDP), inflation rates, exchange rates, unemployment rate, etc., it also has a strong influence on stock markets and their performance. This relationship has been examined in a number of settings, but it is yet to be unraveled in the Omani context. Accordingly, the main purpose of this study is to examine the possible effect of the oil price fluctuations on stock price movements. The study applies Toda and Yamamoto's (1995) Granger non-causality test on the daily Oman stock index (Muscat Securities Market Index) and oil prices between the period of 2 January 2003 and 13 March 2016. The results indicated that the oil price fluctuations have a significant impact on stock index movements. However, the stock price movements do not have a significant impact on oil prices. These findings have significant implications not only for the Omani economy but also for the economy of similar countries, particularly in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The latter should carefully consider their policies and strategies regarding crude oil production and the generated income allocation as it might potentially affect the financial markets performance in these countries.

Dynamic Linkages between Food Inflation and Its Volatility: Evidence from Sri Lankan Economy

  • MOHAMED MUSTAFA, Abdul Majeed;SIVARAJASINGHAM, Selliah
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.139-145
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    • 2019
  • This study examines the dynamic linkages between food price inflation and its volatility in the context of Sri Lanka. The empirical evidence derived from the monthly data for the period from 2003M1 to 2017M12 for Sri Lanka. The relationship between inflation rate and inflation volatility has attracted more attention by theoretical and empirical macroeconomists. Empirical studies on the relationship between food inflation and food inflation variability is scarce in the literature. Food price inflation is defined as log difference of food price series. The volatility of a food price inflation is measured by conditional variance generated by the FIGARCH model. Preliminary analysis showed that food inflation is stationary series. Granger causality test reveals that food inflation seems to exert positive impact on inflation variability. We find no evidence for inflation uncertainty affecting food inflation rates. Hence, the findings of the study supports the Friedman-Ball hypothesis in both cases of consumer food price inflation and wholesale food price inflation. This implies that past information on food inflation can help improve the one-step-ahead prediction of food inflation variability but not vice versa. Our results have some important policy implications for the design of monetary policy, food policy thereby promoting macroeconomic stability.

A study on the Co-movement of Stock Market between Digital Contents Industry in Korea and Foreign Market (디지털컨텐츠산업의 해외주식시장 동조화 연구)

  • Wi, Han-Jong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.43-46
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    • 2006
  • This study examined the stock return co-movement among Korean digital contents industry, American NASDAQ, and Japanese NIKKEI225. This is to identify the reaction of Korean digital contents industry on the movement of foreign stock market. To investigate the co-movements, during the period of 1999 to 2005, daily logarithm difference returns of each stock market indices are tested by the methodology of Granger(1963, 1969)'s causality test. The positive influence from NASDAQ index to Korean digital contents industry index are found, but not vice versa. It means that the market value of firms in Korean digital contents industry affected by the movement of American NASDAQ market which composite with digital IT firms. However, the co-movements with NIKKEI225 did not found.

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Moderation Effects of Computer Self-efficacy on the Relationship among Variables for Appropriation in using IT (정보기술 사용 전유에 관한 변수들 간의 관계에서 컴퓨터자기효능감의 조절효과)

  • Lee, Woong-Kyu
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.25-46
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    • 2009
  • According to adaptive structuration theory, faithfulness of appropriation(FOA), and consensus on appropriation(COA) are variables for measuring appropriation in use of IT. FOA is the level of interpreting and using the intentions of the IT designers objectively and COA is the level of agreement on ways of using IT among or with user group independently of designers' intention. In traditional theories of IT adoption, computer self-efficacy(CSE), self evaluation on abilities of using computer, has been considered as one of the important individual differences. which would influence on beliefs of using IT. Therefore, considering the relationship among CSE, FOA, COA and attitude, we can hypothesize that CSE would play a moderation varaible among appropriation related variables relationships, FOA-attitude and COA-attitude. The objective of this study is an analysis of CSE's moderation effects in causality relationship among appropriation measuring variables. For this purpose, we propose a research model where there are four hypotheses for moderation effects of CSE on the relationships between appropriation variables. We test these hypotheses by sampling ERP and groupware users. In result, our proposed hypotheses except moderation effect of COA-usefulness are accepted. Main contribution of this study is to identify the relationship between CSE and AST. This study implies that very careful consideration of users' CSE is necessary in order to perform managerial activities based on FOA and COA in IT management department.

Prediction of the interest spread using VAR model (벡터자기회귀모형에 의한 금리스프레드의 예측)

  • Kim, Junhong;Jin, Dalae;Lee, Jisun;Kim, Suji;Son, Young Sook
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.1093-1102
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, we predicted the interest spread using the VAR (vector autoregressive) model. Variables used in the VAR model were selected among 56 domestic and foreign macroeconomic time series through crosscorrelation and Granger causality test. The performance of the VAR model was compared with the univariate time series model, AR (autoregressive) model, in view of MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) and RMSE (root mean square error) of forecasts for the last twelve months.