• Korean Journal of Logic
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.89-114
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• 2009

We have many causal beliefs, and they play an important role in our decision making. Unlike evidential decision theory, causal decision theory claims that an account of rational choice must use causal beliefs to identify the considerations that make a choice rational. I claim that evidential decision theory is refuted by the original Newcomb's problem but not by the medical Newcomb problem. The latter is taken to be the best example to point out the weakness of evidential decision theory. However, by the explicit statement about causal relations, I argue that the medical Newcomb problem loses its strength in refuting evidential decision theory. With this argument, this paper clarifies the difference between evidential decision theory and causal decision theory.

• Korean Journal of Logic
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.21-67
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• 2017

In this paper, I critically examine Sartorio's (2006) argument for disjunctive cause, and put forth disjunctive causal structure in a different way. I show that the disjunctive causal structure meets not just what Sartorio means to claim but also our understanding of causal responsibility. First, I introduce Sartorio's argument for disjunctive cause. Second, I critically discuss Sartorio's responses to the criticisms of her arguments for disjunctive cause, and propose another problem with her arguments. Finally, I explicate in a different way Sartorio's disjunctive cause in terms of disjunctive causal structure founded on moderate variables, causal interaction, and probability trajectory. I notice, regarding the disjunctive causal structure, the role of causal interaction of cause events with moderate variables. I reveal, regarding the disjunctive causal structure, the significance of indetermination of cause events and effect events for our understanding of causal responsibility. I show that the disjunctive causal structure guides us more convincingly to assign causal responsibility to an agent. I come to three conclusions. First, there is no disjunctive cause event Sartorio argues for. Second, propensities of events to be causally connected to an effect event constitute disjunctive relation. Third, we should notice indetermination of cause events and effect events while assigning causal responsibility to an agent.

• Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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• v.26 no.5
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• pp.637-645
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• 2006

This study reviewed and discussed the nature of scientific hypothesis described in philosophy, the philosophy of science, science, and science education. In these descriptions, a hypothesis was defined as one of five types: hypothesis as an assumption, hypothesis as a prediction, hypothesis as a tentative explanation, hypothesis as a tentative law, and hypothesis as a tentative causal explanation. Most scholars agreed that a hypothesis is a proposition or a set of propositions proposed as an explanation for an observed situation. In this view, a hypothesis is a possible answer to or an explanation of a question that accounts for all the observed facts. Also, it is a statement that explains why things happen in nature or an explanation for an observation that can be tested. In the five types of hypothesis meanings, a tentative explanation includes a tentative law and a tentative causal explanation. However, tentative laws are not explanation but description which are general statements drawn from specific experiences by way of a process known as induction. A number of studies also have distinguished hypothesis from assumption, tentative explanation, tentative law, and prediction. Therefore, a hypothesis is concluded to be a proposition or a set of propositions proposed as a tentative causal explanation for an observed situation.

• Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.123-132
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• 1994

The experimental evidence evaluation of the 11th grade students(N:91) was investigated. Specially, the influence of students' ideas about optical phenomena and presented evidence types on their evidence evaluation, and the influence of students' ideas on their causal inference modes were investigated. After eliciting the students' ideas about shadow phenomena and conformity of their idea, the experimental results with a binary outcome were presented as the evidence. Then the students were asked to evaluate the evidence. Again students' ideas were elicited. Most of students had causal ideas such that the shape of object(96%) and the inclination of screen(75%) were causes of shadow shape, not the shape(70%) and color(92%) of light source. In the case of the shape of object and the color of light source, most students(70%) believed strongly their ideas. Most responses(80%) in the evidence were evidence-based, and 12% of them were theory-based. There was no significant difference of reponses types between students with causal ideas(81%) and students with non-causal ideas(78%), between covariable and non-covariable evidence. But in the case of non-causal ideas, covariable evidence was more likely to yield evidence-based reponses than non-covariable evidence. If students had preconcepts inconsistent(84%) with the evidence, they were more likely to make evidence-based responses than the students with consistent ideas (75%) with the evidence. Especially in the case perceptually biased evidence, this tendency was marked. In the case of covariable evidence, many students made inclusion inferences(40%) rather than uncertainty inferences(32%). In the case of uncertainty inferences(94%), students more likely to make evidence-based reponses than inclusion inferences(83%) and exclusion infernces(88%). In the case of inclusion inferences and exclusion infernces, students tended to make idea-based responses and distort the evidences. In conclusion, when the students evaluate the experimental evidences, their ideas influence the causal inference modes. Especially, according to the conformity of the preconcepts and logical relation of evidences, the inference modes are more strongly depended upon the preconcepts rather than evidences.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.43 no.3
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• pp.193-204
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• 2010

Objectives: The objective of this study was to analyze the causal relationship between smoking and depression using longitudinal data. Methods: Two waves of the Korea Welfare Panel collected in 2006 and 2007 were used. The sample consisted of 14 426 in 2006 and 13 052 in 2007 who were aged 20 and older. Smoking was measured by smoking amount (none/$\geq$ two packs). Depression was defined when the summated CESD (center for epidemiological studies depression)-11 score was greater than or equal to 16. The causal relationship between smoking and depression was tested using logistic regression. In order to test the causal effect of smoking on depression, depression at year 2 was regressed on smoking status at year 1 only using the sample without depression at year 1. Likewise, smoking status at year 2 was regressed on depression at year 1 only using those who were not smoking at year 1 in order to test the causal effect of depression on smoking. The statistical package used was Stata 10.0. Sampling weights were applied to obtain the population estimation. Results: The logistic regression testing for the causal relationship between smoking and depression showed that smoking at year 1 was significantly related to depression at year 2. Smoking amounts associated with depression were different among age groups. On the other hand, the results from the logistic regression testing for the opposite direction of the relationship between smoking and depression found no significant association regardless of age group. Conclusions: The study results showed some evidence that smoking caused depression but not the other way around.

• Korean Journal of Child Studies
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.195-211
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• 1999

This study investigated developmental trends and sex differences in the relation between children's self-esteem and relevant variables by proposing and testing the causal model. The 763 children who participated in the study were 3rd, 5th, and 7th grade students. Major findings were that physical appearance was the most powerful determinant of self-esteem. Students with high self-esteem were more learning oriented, used more motivational behaviors and had higher academic achievement. The findings from this analysis of the causal model revealed remarkable developmental differentiation and stability.

• The Journal of Information Systems
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.75-91
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• 2014

The effective supply chain management(SCM) is a matter of survival in many firms because successful supply chains will effectively coordinate their processes, focus on delivering customer value, eliminate unnecessary costs in key functional areas, and create performance measurement systems. The balanced scorecard(BSC) is widely used to measure the performance of the SCM. The BSC framework suggests that balance is obtained by adopting performance measures from four different areas. In this study, we analyzed the causal relationship of SCM performance based on BSC framework. First, we reviewed the nested causal relationships among four different perspective of the BSC, namely, business process perspective, customer perspective, financial perspective, and innovation and learning perspective. Then, we used the chi-square difference test to identify the best model to fit the causal relationship of SCM performance. Of the 800 questionnaires posted, a total of 265 questionnaires were returned after one follow-up. A total of 66 questionnaires were eliminated due to largely missing values. The major finding says alternative model 3 is dominant to other models to fit causal relationships among four different perspective of the BSC. Innovation and learning perspective positively influence on customer perspective, business process perspective, and financial perspective. Business process perspective also positively influence on customer perspective and financial perspective whereas customer perspective does not influence on financial perspective significantly.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.38 no.5
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• pp.51-57
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• 2023

Numerous studies have been conducted to analyze the causal relationships of maritime accidents using natural language processing techniques. However, when multiple causes and effects are associated with a single accident, the effectiveness of extracting these causal relations diminishes. To address this challenge, we compiled a dataset using verdicts from maritime accident cases in this study, analyzed their causal relations, and applied labeling considering the association information of various causes and effects. In addition, to validate the efficacy of our proposed methodology, we fine-tuned the KoELECTRA Korean language model. The results of our validation process demonstrated the ability of our approach to successfully extract multiple causal relationships from maritime accident cases.

• Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.1010-1029
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• 2002

The purpose of this research was to survey middle school students' preference for science and its causal factors, so as to analyze the causal relationships between them. Preference for science and its causal factors were defined theoretically, and a theoretical model was constructed to measure them and analyze the causal relationship by structural equation modeling. According to the theoretical model and a pilot test, a questionnaire was developed with three parts; the background information of a respondent, the preference for science, and the causal factors of preference. The questionnaire was administered to one class per grade of randomly selected 8 middle schools from 4 areas across the country, and 819 students' data were collected. Preference for science was defined as a state of mind. It revealed to what extent, and how, one likes science. It consisted of 3 categories - 'emotional response', 'behavioral volition', 'valuational comprehension', and each category was divided into two subcategories. Causal factors affecting the preference for science consisted of three categories - personal, educational and social factors, and each was divided into 2 or 3 subcategories. Middle school students' preference for science was middling as a total. Curiosity about contents of science and valuation of science were high, comparatively, but behavioral volition about science was especially low. Students' responses to the causal factors were relatively high in every educational factor and sociocultural valuation of social factors, but relatively low in socioeconomic rewards of social factors, and especially low in personal factors. The causal relationship about the preference for science was investigated by multiple regression analysis and path analysis, using the structural equation model. Multiple regression analysis about the preference for science and its causal factors revealed important factors. The important factors were personal ability, the personal traits, rewards in school science, and contents of school science in order of magnitude of standardized regression coefficient ${\beta}$. Stepwise regression analysis with each of the subcategories of the preference for science as dependent variables showed what factors were important in each subcategory. According to the result of structural equation modeling, personal factors affected 'emotional response' and 'behavioral volition' directly, and social factors affected 'valuational comprehension' directly. Educational factors affected all categories of the preference for science by influencing not only 'emotional response' and 'valuational comprehension' directly, but also 'behavioral volition' indirectly. The way to promote middle school students' preference for science was suggested, based on the analysis result.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.46 no.5
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• pp.115-130
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• 2021

The main purpose of this study is to analyze the causal relationship between import-export goods and transportation modes. To this end, five major commodity groups were selected from 2010 to 2018 such as Machinery and transport equipment (SITC 7), manufactured goods classified chiefly by material (SITC 6), chemicals and related products, n.e.s. (SITC 5), mineral, fuels, lubricants, and related materials (SITC 3), and miscellaneous manufactured articles (SITC 8). And using the panel VECM, the difference between transportation modes such as ports and airports was compared and analyzed through panel granger causality, Impulse response function, Forecasting error variance decomposition. As a result, it is confirmed that the causal relationship between major product groups and transportation modes showed different causal relationships depending on the characteristics of port and air transportation.