• 제목/요약/키워드: Causal association

검색결과 978건 처리시간 0.022초

베이지안 네트워크를 이용한 다차원 범주형 분석 (Multi-dimension Categorical Data with Bayesian Network)

  • 김용철
    • 한국정보전자통신기술학회논문지
    • /
    • 제11권2호
    • /
    • pp.169-174
    • /
    • 2018
  • 일반적으로 자료의 효과 연속형인 경우 분산분석과 이산형인 경우 분할표 카이제곱 검정을 통계적 분석방법으로 사용한다. 다차원의 자료에서는 계층적 구조의 분석이 요구되어지며 자료간의 인과관계를 나타내기 위해 통계적 선형모형을 채택하여 분석한다. 선형모형의 구조에서는 자료의 정규성이 요구되어지며 일부 자료에서는 비 선형모형을 채택할 수도 있다. 특히, 설문조사 자료 구조는 문항의 특성상 이산형 자료의 형태가 많아 모형의 조건에 만족하지 않는 경우가 종종 발생한다. 자료구조의 차원이 높아질수록 인과관계, 교호작용, 연관성분석 등에 다차원 범주형 자료 분석 방법을 사용한다. 본 논문에서는 확률분포의 계산을 이용한 베이지안 네트워크 모형이 범주형 자료 분석에서 분석절차를 줄이고 교호작용 및 인과관계를 분석할 수 있다는 것을 제시하였다.

Causal Links among Stock Market Development Determinants: Evidence from Jordan

  • MUGABLEH, Mohamed Ibrahim
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • 제8권5호
    • /
    • pp.543-549
    • /
    • 2021
  • The stock market plays a crucial role in the growth of industry and trade, which eventually affects the economy. This paper studies the determinants of stock market development in Jordan using yearly time-series data (1978-2019). The autoregressive distributed lag approach is applied to examine co-integration, while the vector error correction model is employed to estimate (long-run and short-run) causal relationships. The results show that macroeconomic determinants such as gross domestic product, gross domestic savings, investment rate, credit to the private sector, broadest money supply, stock market liquidity, and inflation rate are important determinants of stock market development. These findings provide vital implications for policymakers in developed and emerging stock markets. First, economic development plays an imperative role in stock market development. Second, developing the banking sector is mandatory because it can significantly promote stock market development. Third, domestic investment is a significant determinant of stock market development, especially in emerging countries. However, it is vital to launch policies that lead to encourage investment and promote stock market development, and this could be done through (1) encouraging competition, (2) improving the institutional framework, and (3) removing trade blocks by establishing a mutual connection between foreign private investment entities and government authorities.

대학 e포트폴리오 성공모형의 검증에 관한 연구 (A Study of Verifying e-Portfolio System Success Model in a College Education)

  • 이윤재;김진경;박동진
    • 한국정보시스템학회지:정보시스템연구
    • /
    • 제28권3호
    • /
    • pp.203-225
    • /
    • 2019
  • Purpose The purpose of this study is to empirically verify an ePortfolio success model which shows the structural causal relationships among the basic modeling constructs. We developed the success model based on DeLone and Mclean(2003) from IS perspective and on Balaban et al(2013) from ePortfolio perspective. And we are focused on the success of ePortfolio system designed for college students and professors. Design/methodology/approach Structural equation modeling techniques were applied to data collected 375 users of the ePortfolio system, K-Folio, at least one semester during one academic year. The structural model was analyzed using a Lisrel 8.54 statistical program. Findings The followings are the findings of the study. First, the constructs of IS success model are well applied to ePortfolio for college education. Second, the proposed model which has direct causal relationships from ePortfolio's quality to performance is more significant than the D&M and Balaban's model(2013). Third, the information quality among ePortfolio quality constructs does not have effect on system usability and performance. It means that information contents' quality issued by professor or system manager is not satisfied with the students yet. Finally, by using indirect analysis of structural equation model, we found that the ePortfolio operation manager should focus on ensuring system maintenance activities and providing fast and accurate services for improving ePortfolio performance.

The Role of the Manufacturing Sector in Promoting Economic Growth in the Saudi Economy: A Cointegration and VECM Approach

  • SALLAM, Mohamed A.M.
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • 제8권7호
    • /
    • pp.21-30
    • /
    • 2021
  • This study examines the role of the manufacturing sector in stimulating economic growth in the Saudi economy. Even though the economic literature shows how the manufacturing sector stimulates economic growth, it does not clearly show the role of the manufacturing sector in economic growth. The study employed annual time-series data spanning the 1980-2018 period from the databases of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority. Moreover, the cointegration and VECM approaches were employed to examine the short- and long-run relationship causality between variables. The results show a two-way causal relationship exists between the manufacturing sector and economic growth. Furthermore, the results indicate that a unidirectional causal relationship exists, running from the manufacturing sector to the services sector. The study recommends that the determinants of the growth of the Saudi manufacturing sector must be investigated. Moreover, the most productive Saudi manufacturing industries must be identified, and the productivity of other sectors must be increased in a way that contributes to economic plans and policies. Thus, adopting economic policies that stimulate investment in the manufacturing sector contributes to increasing non-oil exports to diversify sources of income to achieve vision 2030 of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Government Education Expenditure and Economic Growth Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Vietnam

  • LE, Minh Phuoc;TRAN, Trang Mai
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • 제8권7호
    • /
    • pp.413-421
    • /
    • 2021
  • Government expenditure on education has attracted much attention because it plays an important role in the economic development. The question is whether government expenditure on education has a positive or negative impact on the economic growth and vice versa. This study aims to provide reliable estimates of the relationship between government expenditure on education and economic growth with empirical evidence in Vietnam for the period 2006-2019. The data was taken from the official statistics of the General Statistics Office of Vietnam. The authors have used the VAR model and Granger causal model to determine the relationship between government expenditure on education and the economic growth. Research results show that there is a two-way nexus between the economic growth and government spending on education with a lag of about two years. From the results obtained from this research, the authors have made some policy suggestions for the Vietnamese government as how to increase investment for education. If there is a one-way causal relationship between expenditure on education and the economic growth, the government can use spending as a growth factor. However, if there is a bi-directional relationship between the government expenditure on education and the GDP growth, the government needs to ensure that resources are appropriately managed and allocated effectively to promote growth.

가정외보호 아동의 양육자 관계와 교우관계의 상호 영향: 자기회귀교차지연모형을 활용한 종단연구 (The Reciprocal Relationship between Caregiver Relations and Peer Relations of Children in Out-of-home Care: Longitudinal Study Using Autoregressive Cross-lagged Modeling)

  • 김담이;강현아
    • 아동복지연구
    • /
    • 제16권2호
    • /
    • pp.109-135
    • /
    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze the longitudinal causal relationship between caregiver relations and peer relations of children in out-of-home care. We analyzed the three years(2011-2013) of longitudinal data from the Panel Study on Korean Children in Out-of-Home Care. The autoregressive cross-lagged model (ARCL) was used to measure the longitudinal causal relationship between caregiver relations and peer relations. As a result, first, caregiver relations and peer relations showed stability over time. In other words, the results of the measurement at three time points showed that the caregiver relations and peer relations at the previous time had a significant effect on the caregiver relations and peer relations at the later time point. Second, the previous caregiver relations had a significant effect on the subsequent peer relations over time. Third, the previous peer relations had a significant effect on the subsequent caregiver relations over time. This study confirmed the interrelationships of caregiver relations and peer relations of children in care by examining the longitudinal data using the longitudinal analysis method.

A Study on the Structural Causal Relationship of Marketing Stimulating Factors on Online Impulse Purchase through Consumer Value: Focusing on the Mediating Effect of Consumer Value

  • KWON, Lee-Seung;LEE, Jae-Min
    • 웰빙융합연구
    • /
    • 제5권3호
    • /
    • pp.7-17
    • /
    • 2022
  • Purpose: With the introduction of Web 2.0, the advent of smartphones, and the recent outbreak of COVID-19 worldwide, interest in online shopping has soared. In an online shopping environment, the desire for impulse buying increases compared to offline shopping. Research design, data and methodology: In this study, three marketing stimulating factors such as product factor, price factor, and facilitating factor were selected which affect impulse buying for clothing and accessory products in the Korean online shopping environment. The mechanism of causal relationship among them, and the role customer value between marketing stimulating factor and impulse buying was analyzed. Results: The analysis results are as follows. First, the product factor had a significant positive effect on consumer value and impulse buying. Second, the price factor also had a significant positive effect on consumer value and impulse buying. Conclusions: Although the facilitating factor had no significant influence on consumer value and impulse buying, the indirect effect through consumer value was positively significant. Consumer value had a positive mediating effect on impulse purchase in the order of price factor, product factor, and promotion factor.

Causal Relationship Between Working Capital Policies and Working Capital Indicators on Firm Performance: Evidence from Thailand

  • WICHITSATHIAN, Sareeya
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • 제9권5호
    • /
    • pp.465-474
    • /
    • 2022
  • Using structural equation modeling, the study aims to investigate the causal relationship between working capital policies and working capital indicators on firm performance, including profitability and market value (SEM). The samples of 381 firms were selected from various industries listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) from 2016 to 2020. The results showed that 1) there is an effect of working capital policies on profitability and market value; 2) there is an effect of working capital indicators on profitability and market value and 3) there is the effect of profitability on market value. From the results, it is suggested that conservative working capital investment policy (CIP) and conservative working capital financing policy (CFP) affect a company's performance in the Thailand context. In addition, shortening the cash conversion cycle (CCC) should be applied in management to increase profitability by reducing the receivables collection period (RCP) and inventory conversion period (ICP) while increasing the payables deferral period (PDP). The practical implications of the study provide the evidence that meeting the dues according to short CCC management can represent healthy liquidity in cash flow that helps gain investor confidence and the investment interest that further increases the market value.

Effect of Agricultural Exports and Imports on Economic Growth in Bangladesh: A Study on Agribusiness Supply Chain

  • HASAN, Mostofa Mahmud;HOSSAIN, BM Sajjad;SAYEM, Md. Abu;AFSAR, Mahnaz
    • 유통과학연구
    • /
    • 제20권11호
    • /
    • pp.79-88
    • /
    • 2022
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of agricultural exports and imports on economic growth in Bangladesh and propose an upgraded and customized model of the supply chain for agribusiness growth in Bangladesh to achieve plain sailing and systematic operation and financial gains at home and abroad. Research design, data, and methodology: All data in the research have been collected from secondary sources. Gross domestic product was used as the dependent variable and exports and imports of agricultural products were used as independent variables. Pairwise Granger causality was utilized to see the impact of the variable responsible for the economic growth in Bangladesh and the causal relationship between the variables analyzed was measured using Johansen co-integration test. Results: From the empirical analysis, the researchers observed that agricultural commodity imports and exports have a unidirectional impact on economic growth in Bangladesh and a long-run causal link with economic growth in Bangladesh. The suggested supply chain model of agribusiness aids in achieving smooth operations, systematic management, and monetary gains both domestically and internationally. Conclusions: This paper contributes to the development of a more effective and profitable agribusiness supply chain in Bangladesh systematically through their theoretical and practical implications.

National Food Distribution and Business Performance of Large State Plantations in Indonesia

  • Moehamad Irwan MAULANA;Sucherly SUCHERLY;Kurniawan SAEFULLAH;Martha Fani CAHYANDITO
    • 유통과학연구
    • /
    • 제22권3호
    • /
    • pp.59-70
    • /
    • 2024
  • Purpose: This study aimed to develop a strategic business conceptual model for large state plantations in West Java Province and Banten Province, Indonesia. The model was built through causal relationships and interrelationships between marketing strategies and business strategies that affect business performance on large state plantations. The plantation sector provides the largest contribution to gross domestic product and is an important part of national food distribution efforts. Research design, data, and methodology: This study used a literature review adapted from Pret and Logan (2019), which followed the guidelines of Tranfield et al. (2003), derived from the Scopus website with Q1/Q2 quartiles and inclusion/exclusion criteria published from 2012 to 2021. Results: Based on a systematic literature review approach, we constructed the strategic business conceptual model for large state plantations based on a combination of four causal and interrelationship variables that affect business performance, namely, industry attractiveness, unique capabilities, innovation management, and collaboration strategy. Conclusions: This research explains the relationship between industry attractiveness variables and unique capability as independent variables that can affect business performance through collaboration strategy and innovation management as intervening variables in the plantation sector, especially large state plantations, which have not been found in previous studies.