• Title/Summary/Keyword: Causal Maps

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A Study on Ensuring Validity and Increasing Power of Expression on Causal Maps (인과지도의 타당성 확보와 정보 표현력 향상을 위한 연구)

  • Jung, Jae-Un;Kim, Hyun-Soo
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.97-115
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    • 2007
  • In System Dynamics, causal maps are used as a tool for analyzing dynamic problems and discussing the outcome of analyzed problems. However there are some limitations to use causal maps. In the drawing phase of causal maps, the high abstraction of variables that constitutes problems makes it difficult to find out correct information. And principles or rules to check errors on causal maps are not sufficient yet. Moreover, simulation modeling tasks are required to be concerned separately from drawing causal maps because causal maps cannot provide enough information to simulation modeling. In order to overcome these limitations, this study shows ways that ensure validity, increase power of expression of causal maps and improve the connection between causal maps and simulation modeling.

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A Simulation Method of Causal Maps: NUMBER (인과지도의 시뮬레이션 방법론: NUMBER)

  • 김동환
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.91-111
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    • 2000
  • Causal maps or cognitive maps have been widely used to get insights for complex systems or decision makers. When insights come from the system behavior rather than its structure, we need simulation of causal maps and cognitive maps. In this paper, a method for directly converting causal maps and cognitive maps into stock-flow diagrams that can be simulated in computers in proposed. This method is called as NUMBER. NUMBER is an abbreviation for 'Normal Unit Modeling By Elementary Relationship'. In this paper, NUMBER is applied to a cognitive map of policy maker to show its usefulness.

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Dissipation Effect in Causal Maps as a Source of Communication Problem

  • Kim, Dong-Hwan
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.5-15
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    • 2005
  • This paper investigates psychological differences between constructors and interpreters of causal maps. This paper argues that dissipation effects and dilution effects applies to those who are to interpret causal maps not to those who construct them. Dissipation effects are psychological tendency that people perceive causal effect as weak as the number of causal links increases. Dilution effects occur when people undervalue the strength of causal relation as the number of causal variables increases. Experimental results show that concentration effects opposite to the dissipation effects and dilution effects explain more correctly the perception of constructors of causal maps. This paper points out that this asymmetric psychological tendencies between constructors and interpreters of causal maps is the psychological source of the communication problems between systems thinkers and their clients.

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The Exploring of the Device for Creativity Estimating Applied Causal Maps (인과지도를 통한 창의성검사 방안 탐색)

  • Moon, Byoung-Chan
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.131-153
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study is to explore the applicability of the causal maps for estimating creativity. This study assumes that fluency, flexibility, originality and elaboration are elements of creativity; and there are common characteristics between systems and creative thinking. For this study, 30 students from the 5th grade create causal maps which are consisted of the contents of 'the water cycle in the earth'. The causal maps are analyzed and evaluated by focusing on the characteristics of creativity. In way of the marking causal maps based on creativity, each word is scored as 1 point on the basis of 30 points for fluency. Each word which is linked more than one word is scored 3 points for flexibility, but the maximum points are limited as 35 points. In originality, if it is approved each word is worthy as well as originality, it is scored as 10 points on the basis of 40 points. Lastly, each number of cycle loops is scored as 15 points for elaboration, and the maximum scores are limited as 45 points. As is stated above, the limiting of the maximum scores are designed based on corresponded to 10% students of participators. In the result of this study, the students' scores of evaluating creativity applied causal maps show similar patterns from relative point of view to the other results which were evaluated the creativity by credible organ. Consequently, it is recognized that the causal maps have the possibility of being able to estimate quantitatively the creativity.

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Critical Success Factors of RTE Based on Policy Leverage of System Dynamics (시스템 다이내믹스의 정책지렛대를 활용한 RTE 핵심성공요인 도출에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Jae-Un;Kim, Hyun-Soo;Choi, Hyung-Rim;Hong, Soon-Goo
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.177-194
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    • 2007
  • This study is intended to identify critical success factors(CSF) of real-time enterprises(RTE) by using a policy leverage method of system dynamics. Since RTE is a new theoretical system that unifies existing theories or concepts in business management and information technology, it is not proper to employee a traditional statistical method. To obtain our research goal, causal maps of system dynamics are employed to abstract and arrange RTE information from previous studies. By using the commonness of policy leverage and critical success factors, CSFs for the RTE are deduced by substituting the leverage points on causal maps with necessary success factors to solve the problems. Since this is a new approach to identify success factors. it has some restrictions. Unlike the statistical methods, this approach explains only the directions of causalities and correlations. For the future research, a simulation tool of system dynamics can be employed to discover how each CSF is correlated to the successful implementation of RTE.

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A Study on Theoretical Improvement of Causal Mapping for Dynamic Analysis and Design (동태적 분석 및 설계를 위한 인과지도 작성법의 한계와 개선방안에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Jae-Un;Kim, Hyun-Soo
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.33-60
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    • 2009
  • This study explores the limitation in making a causal model through an existing case and proposes an alternative plan to improve a theoretical system of causation modeling. To make a dynamic and actual model, several principles are needed such as reality based analysis of system structures and dynamics, consistent expression of causations, conversion of numerical formulas to causal relations, classification and arrangement of variables by size of concept, etc. However, it is hard to find cases to apply these considerations from existing models in System Dynamics. Therefore, this study verifies errors of derived models from literatures and proposes principles and guides that should be considered to make a sound dynamic model on a causal map. It contributes to making an opportunity for exciting public opinion to improve theory about causal maps, yet it has limitation that the study does not advance forward to the experimental step. For future study, it plans to make up by classifying and leveling causal variables, developing a dynamic BSC model.

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Causal Maps of President Kim Dae Jung:Systems thinking in managing the Korean financial crisis of 1997 (김대중 대통령의 인과지도:1997년도 금융위기의 원인과 극복에 관한 김대중 대통령의 시스템 사고)

  • 김동환
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.5-28
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    • 2000
  • After the unanticipated financial crisis of Korea in 1997, lots of debates have been held on how to manage the crisis. However, few studies attempt to analyze policy makers' map that shaped and guided various measures for overcoming the crisis. This paper explores cognitive maps and systems thinking of the President of Korea who successfully managed the financial crisis. Futhermore, his cognitive map is compared to that of Prime Minister of Malaysia who overcome financial crisis successfully but in different ways. In this paper the causal map analysis of policy makers is proposed as a promising approach for in-depth investigation of systems thinking of policy makers.

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Development of a Construction Performance Causal Map Using System Dynamics (시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 건설성과 인과지도 개발)

  • Kang, Jin-Young;Park, Hee-Sung
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.63-68
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    • 2009
  • Construction Performance measurement and management has been interested by construction practitioners. However, current construction project management practices are related to short-term improvement plans rather than long-term and systematic approaches based upon performance analysis. AR a result, there is a need for developing of a collaborative plan over project life cycle. Therefore, this paper reviews extensive literature and proposes the construction performance estimating model using a system dynamics. The paper proposes casual maps for planning, design, procurement, and construction phases. Each casual map includes all performance indicators and factors that impact on performance directly or indirectly. These casual maps that were developed by system thinking will enhance the understanding of the relationships among performances and factors. After further data gathering, these models can be used to estimate construction performance and eventually these will save project costs and shorten project schedule.

Lessons of systems thinking on housing policy (부동산 정책에 관한 시스템 사고의 교훈)

  • Kim, Dong-Hwan
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.187-209
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    • 2007
  • This paper deals with the policy failure in housing markets. In order to understand basic mechanism leading to policy failure, systems thinking and system dynamics modeling is applied to housing markets and housing policy. This paper will show different set of causal maps on housing policy, and compare causal reasons of housing policy and its critics.

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A Structural Analysis between Overseas Opening of Geospatial Information and the Promotion of Geospatial Information Industry Using the Systems Thinking (시스템 사고를 통한 지도데이터 국외개방과 공간정보 산업 활성화간 인과구조 분석)

  • Yi, Mi Sook
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.213-221
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    • 2018
  • South Korea has been reluctant to open its geospatial information overseas to ensure security as a divided country. However, this cannot continue as the domestic and international environments related to geospatial information and the industrial ecosystem of information and communication technologies have been changing dramatically. Within this context, this study aims to analyze the causal relations among relevant variables and how they change and interact with time using a systems thinking process. First, causal maps were created for the domains of national security, map-based convergence service, and corporate competition. Then, the causal maps for each domain were integrated, based on which the points for policy intervention and dominant feedback loops were identified. The analysis results showed that securing the self-sufficiency of domestic geospatial businesses is a key element to determine the whole causal map, and the variable that changes the dominant feedback loop from a vicious circle to a virtuous one is the decision to open geospatial information overseas. In this study, I found the policy leverage that is a policy intervention point that can produce a great effect with little input by building a causal map of the interactions between major variables. This study is significant in that it identified and analyzed the dominant feedback loop as to which causal structure would dominate the system in the long term. The results of this study can be used to discuss not only the impacts of map data overseas opening on the national security and geospatial information industry, but also the interactions in the future when Google or other global companies request to release the geospatial information.